Th3 Core

Why We Are Here => Economics & Investing => Topic started by: rcjordan on October 30, 2019, 01:22:35 PM

Title: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: rcjordan on October 30, 2019, 01:22:35 PM
We're very close to disrupting the cow

https://www.fastcompany.com/90421659/were-very-close-to-disrupting-the-cow


I agree.  When you see the meat industry suing over the use of the word 'burger,' you know they're in a panic.

Worth a read.
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: Mackin USA on October 30, 2019, 01:57:33 PM
OMG
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: DrCool on October 30, 2019, 03:53:11 PM
Seems like some pretty reasonable assumptions. I think the biggest hit will be to the CAFOs who just want to get the cheapest meat they can on to the table. The smaller ranches who focus more on producing a quality product instead of a cheap product should see growth over the next 10-20 years. I know I would rather eat 1 great tasting $40 steak than 4 mediocre $10 steaks.

The people who have the money to pay for a higher quality product will still want their meat but the standard family buying all their meat at Walmart could easily be swayed to some of the cheaper alternatives.
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: ergophobe on October 30, 2019, 04:46:36 PM
You all know my bias - I think we need to reduce the number of animals we keep and eat to reduce our planetary footprint. So I would see this as a *good* thing.

But nevertheless, though I would *like* to see it happen, I do not believe I am *going* to see it happen.

When I was in high school in the 1970s, I read all the literature about how close we were to nuclear fusion and who it was going to "disrupt" the electrical system. I'm sorry, can anyone remind me what percentage of our electricity comes from nuclear fusion?

In the 1980s, scientists were predicting many diseases would be eradicated due to gene therapy treatments. When Theresa got her PhD, the commencement speaker ran through ten years of glowing reports and talked how funding almost dried up in some fields if your work didn't have a gene therapy component.

In the early 2000s, we had friends who went to work for a "gene shuffling" company whose tech was going to rapidly accelerate precision fermentation (touted in the article) and disrupt all kinds of industries. When the reality set in, they watched their shares go from $185 to $12 and watched their dreams of early retirement turn into buying themselves a nice car.

As we historians like to say: the problem with predicting the future is that it hasn't happened yet.

On some occasions things happen much more quickly than expected, but typically the opposite is true. 50% decline by 2130? Absolutely. 50% decline by 2030? Bzzz! BS detectors going off like mad.
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: ergophobe on October 30, 2019, 04:57:40 PM
List of words in this article that should trip the BS detector
 - unstoppable trifecta
 - new business models
 - disrupt/disruption (used 14 times bing bing bing). Double credit for the phrase, "this disruption is inevitable".
 - exponential market growth
 - poised
 - OUR new report
 - mainstream analysts
 - time to lead
 
Buzzword Score (aka BS)
Buzzword variation: 10/10
Buzzword density: 8/10
Overall BS: 9/10
 
Anyway, the basic problem here is that they think people want protein when they really want food.

This is a little like the 1950s predictions about meals from a pill because we could put all the nutrients there and it would save people so much time and effort eating. The problem is that 1) people like to eat and 2) it turns out that every time we try to isolate nutrients and get the benefits, we find there is no benefit removed from the food they're found in.
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: rcjordan on October 30, 2019, 07:46:12 PM
> they think people want protein when they really want food.

True, but we're getting both, I think.  According to articles I read a few months ago, the dairy industry is already crumbling due to the tasty alternatives crowding the shelves.  Rice milk (which I happen to use because it keeps forever) may have been the first. Now almond milk or even cashew milk are the big deal.  Except when little grandkids are coming, we don't have cow milk in the house --not because we don't like cow milk, but because we like other stuff better for various reasons.

And this doesn't even touch upon the ludicrously vast array of coffee creamers available.

>meat

Ditto what Doc said.   It's like renewable energy, as soon as it nears parity on taste & price, we'll get serious.  When it becomes cheaper (or the same price but with extra benefits), we'll jump to it.
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: Brad on October 31, 2019, 10:25:26 AM
I'm waiting for vat grown beef.
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: ergophobe on October 31, 2019, 06:45:29 PM
the dairy industry is already crumbling due to the tasty alternatives crowding the shelves.

But there you go - after three decades of almond/soy/oat/rice "milks" we're at 9% of liquid dairy and a large number of those people, like a fair percentage of my family, can't drink dairy.

I agree with two things
1. These products are and will continue to take a chunk out of the beef and dairy industries
2. That could lead to collapse, especially for dairy - production is inelastic, so small drops in demand lead to huge price swings and seriously disrupts farmers' lives.

Where I object is the assertion that we will reduce beef and dairy production by 90% in 15 years. No way.
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: rcjordan on November 12, 2019, 03:28:50 PM
>dairy

Dean Foods, America's biggest milk producer, files for bankruptcy
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/12/dean-foods-americas-biggest-milk-producer-files-for-bankruptcy.html
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: ergophobe on November 12, 2019, 09:26:03 PM
I wonder how much shifting subsidy regimes have to do with it
https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/dairy-subsidies-government-farm-programs-surplus-cheese/

And
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-agriculture-secretary-says-during-wisconsin-visit-that-family-run-dairy-farms-may-not-survive-2019-10-03
Quote
According to a September analysis by the U.S. Dairy Export Council, American dairy solids exports to China fell by 43% overall in the 11 months starting in July 2018
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: rcjordan on November 12, 2019, 11:03:48 PM
>Dean

And they lost Walmart.

Walmart Moves Into The Dairy Business As Milk Consumption Drops | SupermarketGuru
https://supermarketguru.com/articles/walmart-moves-into-the-dairy-business-as-milk-consumption-drops/
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: rcjordan on January 07, 2020, 05:38:26 PM
Borden Dairy files for bankruptcy protection
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/borden-dairy-files-bankruptcy-protection-n1111621
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: Travoli on January 08, 2020, 12:55:25 AM
>as soon as it nears parity on taste & price

I bought some "Beyond Beef" and made burgers over Christmas. Far exceeded my expectations and I'd be happy to eat them for 8/10 burger cravings. Same thing for a local vegan burger restaurant. Satisfied the craving better than expected. It's here.
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: rcjordan on January 08, 2020, 03:52:25 AM
Wait! There's more....

You can soon buy meatless Impossible Pork and Impossible Sausage
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/7/21054910/impossible-pork-sausage-plant-based-meat

The smattering of reviews I've seen today say it is excellent.
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: ergophobe on January 08, 2020, 06:00:19 AM
Saw that, but as usual, you beat me to it.

I recently had the Beyond Meat bratwurst in a restaurant and thought it was delicious. The chef is my friend's husband. She told me today that though he is a diehard meat eater, the vegan bratwurst is currently his favorite item on the menu.

Paradoxically, after all this time as a vegetarian, it sort of made me crave meat for the only time I can recall. Tickled something buried deep in the memory recesses I guess.

That said, someone recently gave me some vegan chili. It had some fake sausage in it and I thought it was disgusting. I didn't say anything, because I didn't want to hurt her feelings. And then she called me to apologize when she realized that her other friend had put real sausage in it.

I try not to be a fundamentalist about anything, so I was mostly just amused and honestly surprised *that* that was what meat eaters crave (mostly it was the texture I thought was awful). To be honest, I thought the Beyond sausage was much, much better. But obviously, after 35 years without eating meat, I probably have very different tastes than a regular meat eater.

I've had a few Beyond Burgers at restaurants and they were all dry and not too satisfying, but I bought some and cooked it at home and it was juicy and sort of reminded me of what meat looks like and sounds like when you're frying it (but again, it's so long since I've had a burger, I'm not qualified to compare taste). But unlike the restaurant ones, which were either overcooked or sitting under a warming light way too long, the fresh cooked one was damn good.
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: Rupert on January 08, 2020, 08:44:58 AM
On the BBC this morning:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51019798

Quote
Finnish scientists producing a protein "from thin air" say it will compete with soya on price within the decade.

The protein is produced from soil bacteria fed on hydrogen split from water by electricity.

The researchers say if the electricity comes from solar and wind power, the food can be grown with near-zero greenhouse gas emissions.

If their dreams are realised, it could help the world tackle many of the problems associated with farming.

When I visited Solar Foods' pilot plant on the outskirts of Helsinki last year the researchers were raising funds for expansion.

Now they say they have attracted 5.5m euros of investment, and they predict depending on the price of electricity that their costs will roughly match those for soya production by the end of the decade - perhaps even by 2025.

Lacking in taste?

I ate a few grains of the precious protein flour - called Solein - and tasted nothing, which is what the scientists have planned.

They want it to be a neutral additive to all sorts of foods.

It could mimic palm oil by reinforcing pies, ice cream, biscuits, pasta, noodles, sauces or bread. The inventors say it can be used as a medium for growing cultured meat or fish.

It could also nourish cattle to save them eating soya raised on rainforest land.

Even if things go according to plan which, of course, they may not it will be many years before the protein production is scaled up to meet global demand.

Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: ergophobe on January 08, 2020, 03:47:24 PM
I think they just invented Soylent Yellow. Perhaps Soylent Green is coming next.
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: rcjordan on January 09, 2020, 03:31:40 PM
Uh-oh! Impossible Foods is going for the meat industry's jugular with this one;

Impossible Foods Confirms They Are Working On Faux Bacon
https://www.ubergizmo.com/2020/01/impossible-foods-working-fake-bacon/
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: buckworks on January 09, 2020, 05:21:25 PM
I wonder if fake bacon would be considered kosher?
Title: Re: 10 yrs: Cows down 50% and the beef and dairy industries collapsed
Post by: DrCool on January 09, 2020, 06:55:43 PM
Seems like bacon would be a pretty easy flavor to replicate, especially if they are trying to replicate the standard grocery store bacon. Just throw some salt and liquid smoke on something that is a similar texture and you are most of the way there.

But to come close to the good, thick cut, small batch bacon? That will take some work. The good stuff is only a very small part of the market that they probably don't need to worry about that and just make something that appeals to the masses. And if they are wanting to throw it on a burger there is enough stuff on the burger that can cover up any shortcomings.