Author Topic: Brexit  (Read 42703 times)

BoL

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #135 on: December 20, 2018, 05:41:24 PM »
The odds for a 2nd referendum in 2019 narrowed to evens a week ago but have drifted a bit.

Seems the permutations favour a remain for the next few years anyways, considering the possibility of a 2nd referendum, vote of no confidence or simply cancelling article 50. There's a real chance the PM's deal will get voted down and then the government crumbles with no real mandate.  In that case inevitably the can has to be kicked down the road.

Chunkford

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #136 on: December 21, 2018, 12:02:31 PM »
If article 50 was cancelled (more than likely at the 11th hour IMO), would it all go back to how it was before, or has the UK lost any privileges it had before i.e. veto's
"If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions"

BoL

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #137 on: December 21, 2018, 03:06:26 PM »
Exactly as before, no changes on our relationship with the EU

littleman

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #138 on: December 21, 2018, 09:36:52 PM »
Has there been any chatter at all about doing another revote now that the population has seen how complicated and messy Brexit is?

BoL

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #139 on: December 21, 2018, 10:06:51 PM »
littleman,

From what I've saw, the Government (or at least the leader) feels they are mandated to deliver Brexit in whatever flavour due to the referendum. Opinions still seem quite staunch. Many feel that no further vote is required.

Others argue that because the nature of any potential deal is now known, a referendum makes sense, i.e. how could people have voted for anything other than a hard Brexit without knowing future details.

Parts of the UK unequivocally voted Remain. The English working class seems to be a (continuing) core element of the Leave vote, who've suffered 10 years of austerity and what some see as two fingers to the establishment who recommended Remain. Ironically a lot of the blame is actually London policy rather than Brussels.

Some polls suggest a move to Remain after the realisation of what a mess this is, in fact most seem to indicate a move this way. There definitely seems to be a bit of animosity towards the EU because there isn't a sugar coated deal, or at least the Leave contingent will paint it that way. The main point of contention is what happens on the Northern Ireland/Ireland border which has freedom of movement and goods. A hard Brexit would remove that and put into danger the 'Good Friday' agreement.

But that's the reality of what leaving means. Can't have two separate markets and porous borders. Awkward realities.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2018, 10:08:29 PM by BoL »

littleman

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #140 on: December 21, 2018, 10:22:22 PM »
Thanks for the thoughtful response BoL.  Has here been much buzz in the UK about outside influences manipulating public opinion on Brexit?
 

BoL

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #141 on: December 21, 2018, 10:30:49 PM »
Yes, it seems clear there's bots/meat bots that'll comment on anything related wrt web chatter, this seems fairly established.

The Leave campaign (pre referendum) has also been condemned for being funded illegally by foreign interests.

In the end, people either get it or they don't. From my perspective, there's a lot of working class folks who feel aggrieved and will rationalise how they feel with anything to substantiate it, rather than the other way around.

Most of the members of parliament are pro-remain which at the moment seems to the counter productive.

IMO it's mostly about the working class and general concerns about immigration changing the make-up of communities. It's more about the realities of globalisation than what the EU concerns itself with. Could be wrong.

Interesting times. Not such a good time to be British.


ukgimp

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #142 on: December 22, 2018, 05:14:23 PM »
I find parts of it hilarious to watch.

There is no easy solution.

It make me howl with laughter when people like Tony Blair pipe up with how we should reverse the vote or pre vote go with remain. These comments from not that liked people seemed to have the opposite effect.

Add to that when Obama told us to vote stay and you will go head to head with the incredible stubbornness of the the British. Even if itís the right thing someone telling us how to behave will likely have the opposite affect. We are crazily stubborn as a nation.

Add to this a lot of the poorer people who could be most affected by some aspects are already poor. My terminology here but you can get more than f###ed. They donít have much to lose.

Incredibly devisive vote.

When you look at the wealth of an area and how it voted you can see the strong correlation.

The poor donít like to have the wealthy tell em what to do. Especially when they donít trust them.

A bit of a ramble. :-)

nffc

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #143 on: December 24, 2018, 04:58:40 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/22/frankie-boyle-review-2018-forget-brexit

Well worth a read, some highlights:

"Let's forget Brexit and enjoy our last Christmas with running water. Brexit has many downsides, but I think it will be nice for the Irish to watch a British famine."

"It is at times like those that we will remember the work of Dominic Raab, who resigned in November, having decided that he could not endorse a deal that he himself had negotiated. Raab didnít want to be Brexit secretary, but he didnít have the negotiating skills to decline the job."

"Meanwhile, May tried to attack Jeremy Corbynís handling of antisemitism while in the middle of the Windrush scandal, which was like Pol Pot complaining about gender balance in the films of Martin Scorsese."

"Liam Fox manages to be a grotesque moral nihilist and yet, somehow, not even the worst Dr Fox. Like me, he was raised on an Irish Catholic council estate in Scotland. Itís these sliding-doors moments where I have to thank alcoholism for denying me the focus to become a genocidal sociopath."

"You can imagine that this is all quite surreal for the Saudis; they behead people in public, and starve the children of Yemen. The idea that they would be lambasted for killing a fully grown man in private with no witnesses must seem ridiculous; it would be as if I had got into trouble for saying someone looked like a spoon."

"Our government was angry about Khashoggi and sent the Saudis a strongly worded arms invoice."

"Perhaps the saddest part of this whole business is knowing that there are so few British journalists committed enough to get murdered: you could silence most just by breaking the fingers they use to do select all, copy, paste."

"One patriot filmed himself destroying his Nike clothing by cutting off the top couple of inches from his socks. Instead of destroying the clothing, heís created an additional, free set of Nike sweatbands."

"You have to ask yourself how abusive a relationship has to be if even kneeling in silence is too provocative, how you are valued in a country where even the statement that your life matters ignites furious dissent."

"To consider that, in a world that has pub lunches, wristwatches, golden retrievers, the novels of Donna Tartt, the music of Kendrick Lamar, flumes and The Amazing Spider-Man, there is still a plight where you starve to death, as a child, for no reason."




caine

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #144 on: December 24, 2018, 09:19:59 AM »
Bit of light reading ... a mess.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2018, 09:27:54 AM by caine »

littleman

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #145 on: December 24, 2018, 07:55:32 PM »
Its been a complete sh## show of a year.   We've been dancing to Polka music on a run away train.

rcjordan

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #146 on: January 09, 2019, 10:26:22 PM »
Looks like there might be a chance of getting another general election.

ukgimp

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #147 on: January 10, 2019, 08:21:59 AM »
Weíll get what we get. I donít think a huge amount will change.

rcjordan

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #148 on: January 10, 2019, 01:01:39 PM »
I think it would flip, probably by a 5-10% margin.

ukgimp

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #149 on: January 10, 2019, 01:08:10 PM »
Polls and pundits know sh## :-)

Upon being asked now, I suspect people will lie, as they get verbal abuse.

Saying one thing and voting are different beasts.