Author Topic: Brexit  (Read 28228 times)

Mackin USA

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #30 on: June 24, 2016, 12:01:25 PM »
Bring on Contagion

Fing "Elites" should not be able to tell the people who to run their country. [END RANT]
Mr. Mackin

sugarkane

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #31 on: June 24, 2016, 12:28:25 PM »
> old timers

Quote in the Guardian newspaper:

"A generation given everything: free education, golden pensions, social mobility, have voted to strip my generationís future.Ē
I'd rather decline two drinks than one German adjective.

Mackin USA

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #32 on: June 24, 2016, 01:04:34 PM »
Britainís decision to leave the EU should be a cause for celebration here in America. Brexit embodies the very principles and ideals the American people hold dear to their hearts: self-determination, limited government, democratic accountability, and economic liberty. A truly free and powerful Great Britain is good for Europe and the United States. [Nile Gardiner]
Mr. Mackin

ergophobe

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #33 on: June 24, 2016, 02:55:18 PM »
I lived in Switzerland during the vote. When the Confederatio Helvetica voted no, people blamed the bakwards farmers (it was the rural no vote that carried the day). Doom and gloom. Catastrophe. CH left behind.

When the Iron Curtain came down, I wrote an essay... I wonder if I could find it... saying that I thought the long-term fate of the EU had been decided too. Without the deep polarization between East and West, it always seemed to me that the unions of mutual defense (not just NATO and the EU, but the UK and France) would feel a decentralizing pressure.

People forget that 150 years ago, the majority of people in France as we know it today did not even speak French. They forget that when the Prussians invaded, hatred for the central govt in Paris was so great that the French frontier regions locked their doors when the French army retreated and then came out to meet the Prussians with bread and wine.

There is a dual pressure from technology that pushes for centralization of the economy and decetralization of the society and polity. In the US we see this in the form of what they call The Big Sort.

I'm not sure what I'm trying to say or if I'm trying to say anything at all except that I'm surprised the EU experiment has lasted this long, but I don't think it's accidental that we're seeing the highwater mark (probably) just as the generation with personal memories of WWII exits the stage.

For them, the dream of the EU was a Europe at peace. For the current generation, it's about the economy. The economy was the means. Now it's the ends.

I don't know... I'm just an American spouting off. Not sure if any of that resonates at all with the Euros and Brits in the crowd. What do you think?

BoL

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #34 on: June 24, 2016, 03:06:14 PM »
ergo, I think there is something that definitely resonates with the older generation and them believing 'we are being ruled from Germany' that fuelled scepticism in our ability to govern ourselves.

The recent turmoils of the financial crisis, the ensuing Greece bailouts and the refugee/migration crisis over the past year certainly haven't helped breed confidence in the EU's ability to adapt and deal with problems, and work for its member states.

Some of the talking heads from UK political commentary speculated that many in the working class were using their vote as a protest, feeling that the establishment was not held accountable for the financial crisis and ensuing austerity that resulted in the UK, after huge government bailouts of our banks. This eeems quite controversial though.

I believe for many, the EU has seen to be ineffectual and cumbersome. Talk of 'an ever closer union' fuelled more scepticism.

The largest opposition party were strangely quiet throughout the whole debate, and it's pointed out a lot of their core voters turned out to vote leave, though the party line was to remain.

The biggest issue for people seemed to be immigration, and that the freedom of movement and 'unlimited' level of migration from the EU (IMO) is what swayed a lot of people to choose to leave.

Even as someone to vote remain, I appreciate that people who voted to join the EEC 40+ years ago now see it as a failed project.

It's early days but I feel as long as the EU/UK negotiations run reasonably smooth, the transition won't be too painful.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 03:13:23 PM by BoL »

ergophobe

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #35 on: June 24, 2016, 03:17:17 PM »
Thanks for the perspective.

Those are the types of issues I was thinking of as wall fell. I felt that the long-term was more likely to bring Breton independence than European Union. I wasn't as tapped into the UK situation and did not see Scotland on the horizon.

But the idea that without an absolute survival need to be in bed with so many countries with substantially different cultures, the survival of the EU always seemed like a longshot.

I should say, that as a historian my focus is the sixteenth century, so I tend to take a long view. I didn't not necessarily think the EU would disintegrate in my lifetime. But I think all the forces you mention that came to the fore recently, have always been latent.

Rupert

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #36 on: June 24, 2016, 03:22:49 PM »
BoL  I am with you on that.  

The other issues  are the corruption, the gravy train, the un-audited accounts, the expansionist policies into Ukraine (look where that got us).
... Make sure you live before you die.

littleman

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #37 on: June 24, 2016, 05:40:56 PM »
I bet this ends up being an exit-light by the time all the negotiation is done; something where there is a free trade agreement, easy travel between the UK and the EU, financial commitments will be fulfilled and the UK will have to comply with most EU regulations. 

ergophobe

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #38 on: June 24, 2016, 06:03:36 PM »
And US bonds at... I think they said an 18-year high as GBP plunges. Dow down 2.7%

sugarkane

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #39 on: June 24, 2016, 06:42:05 PM »
> exit-light

That would be the sensible option. But with the fervour that's been stoked up, I'm not sure how politically possible it would be.
I'd rather decline two drinks than one German adjective.

rcjordan

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #40 on: June 24, 2016, 06:45:27 PM »

ukgimp

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #41 on: June 24, 2016, 06:51:26 PM »
I think it's great.

The establishment have not been listening and it's f###ed them over.

It was pretty much London and poor people. All politicians suck. They have to rethink.




Chunkford

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #42 on: June 25, 2016, 12:56:18 PM »
I posted this on my FB wall, so I'll put it here as well.

Quote
Here's my prediction.
Cameron isn't leaving until October. There is no way anyone will want to sign article 50 of the Lisbon treaty until we have leadership. By that time everyone would have gotten over the initial shock and calmed down. The EU would have had time to see the bigger picture and realise they don't want to take the risk with us leaving, as it could start a chain reaction. So they reform and create a better situation for everyone, making the idea of leaving the EU more unappealing for member states.
What that reform is, who knows.
But if that happens and we're still in the EU, then I can see us all having another vote to decide if it's a better deal and to stay or still leave again
I could be wrong, but it's a thought.

I genuinely believe Cameron was being clever here, at the forfeit of his position.
Everyone now is like, whoa! hang on, lets not rush into this now.
Time will tell, and that's what is being given here.
"If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions"

JasonD

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #43 on: June 25, 2016, 01:11:11 PM »
> how long do you think London and the SE will be willing to continue subsidising the rest of the country

Forever.

My only hope for Blighty and Europe as a whole, is whoever takes on the mantle of negotiations with the EU actually negotiates for change within the EU and in a year, we vote in another referendum to remain in the EU and end the Article 50(2) process.

I actually doubt that will happen and in practical terms we'll likely exit free trade to and from Europe, freedom of movement of people from "old EU member countries" but no freedom of movement for "new EU member countries" .

This will lead to huge job opportunities within the UK and immigration from new sources to fill these roles.

As old EU member country citizens won't fill those roles, we'll look back to the Commonwealth and allow free movement and easy access to incomers from Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and India then the man on the street will feel even more aggrieved as the new wave of incomers will not only not speak like Little Jonny, but also not look like little Jonny.

 In 10 years the nation will be in no better position than Italy or Spain, albeit without the weather, and economically and emotionally bankrupt with a huge rise in organisations and political parties even further to the right of Farage's UKIP.

This will lead to us allowing long term visas to Eastern European's that in effect place us in the same position we were when in the EU and without any say on how the organisation is run.

In 20 years time we'll be back to the status quo we have now.

JasonD

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #44 on: June 25, 2016, 04:01:56 PM »
These two pictures sum up what happened and when read in conjunction with this story on the Guardian sum things up for me.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/voting-details-show-immigration-fears-were-paradoxical-but-decisive?CMP=share_btn_tw

The fear of immigration, rather than actual immigration delivered the Out win. Also, that fear trumped financial reality as the geographic areas most reliant on EU financial assistance are the ones that voted most heavily for Out
« Last Edit: June 25, 2016, 08:18:50 PM by JasonD »