Th3 Core

Why We Are Here => Economics & Investing => Topic started by: rcjordan on June 14, 2016, 11:08:57 PM

Title: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on June 14, 2016, 11:08:57 PM
Four polls put the “Leave” campaign ahead of “Remain” as Rupert Murdoch's Sun Tabloid Urges Britons to Quit the EU, sending stocks and the pound down.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-13/four-polls-put-u-k-on-course-to-leave-eu-as-sun-backs-brexit
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: BoL on June 15, 2016, 01:17:59 AM
If it happens, there's the knock on effect of whether individual UK countries wanted to remain or not... and even if there'll be an EU to be in if Scotland decided to go down the indie referendum route... again. It's a pretty big gamble.

The EU love-in of countries is certainly going through a rocky patch.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rooftop on June 15, 2016, 07:01:08 AM
The uncertainty is costing us already.  The pound dropping sharply against the dollar has cost us 2 US customers already.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rupert on June 15, 2016, 09:18:41 AM
We are stuffed if we are in and stuffed if we are out.
From a retail perspective, (present company excluded, as I suspect most here still have the agility to ride it) it has been a pretty poor year. < imho>.

Just looking at jobs lost we are heading for the worst year since 2007:
http://www.retailresearch.org/whosegonebust.php

And neither result will solve that.

added:  If you are betting, as far as elections go, I understand the Sun normally drives the result, which means we are likely to be coming out.

I swing both ways... it depends if we are on and odd or even day of the month I think. But am currently voting in with a very heavy heart. The fallout from coming out is going to be huge in Europe</again imho>

But then the cost of staying in will be high too. Its not going to be pretty... and I tend to think of myself as an optimist....
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: sugarkane on June 15, 2016, 11:09:10 AM
> uncertainty

A friend of mine here in Austria works for a large agricultural machinery manufacturer. They've just dumped their main UK parts supplier, preferring to deal with an Irish company who can be counted on to remain in the EU (so long as it lasts, that is). I suspect there's a lot of that going on.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mackin USA on June 15, 2016, 12:08:20 PM
If the vote is to EXIT the world could go DEEPER into recession or WORSE

IMFO
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Brad on June 15, 2016, 09:45:56 PM
Per Google more Brits searching for leave than remain.

http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2461697/brexit-more-brits-are-searching-for-leave-than-remain-says-google
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rooftop on June 16, 2016, 09:31:27 AM
Per Google more Brits searching for leave than remain.

http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2461697/brexit-more-brits-are-searching-for-leave-than-remain-says-google

Hopefully this is because they're double checking whether there is any actual argument for leaving that makes sense.  Literally did this myself the other day. I'm a staunch supporter of us staying in the EU, but did look for any sensible sites with good arguments to stay.

I still suspect that the tabloids will decide this though.
Title: Vote Leave said over subsequent sessions of Parliament it wanted to introduce:
Post by: Mackin USA on June 16, 2016, 11:33:17 AM

    Finance Bill - This would abolish the 5% rate of VAT on household energy bills by amending the Value Added Tax Act 1994. It would be paid for by savings from the UK's contributions to the EU budget, Vote Leave said
    National Health Service (Funding Target) Bill - The NHS would receive a £100m per week real-terms cash "transfusion", to be paid for by savings from leaving the EU
    Asylum and Immigration Control Bill - "To end the automatic right of all EU citizens to enter the UK"
    Free Trade Bill - The UK leaves the EU's "common commercial policy" to "restore the UK government's power to control its own trade policy"
    European Communities Act 1972 (Repeal) Bill - The European Communities Act 1972, "the legal basis for the supremacy of EU law in the UK", will be repealed. "The EU Treaties will cease to form part of UK law and the European Court's jurisdiction over the UK will end," said Vote Leave.

Source BBC
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mackin USA on June 19, 2016, 01:19:14 PM
Barry Lloyd and Andy Atkins-Krueger shared Paula Kirby's photo.

They posted:
It is 0.5% of our expenditure. Approximately, £8.5 billion a year currently. Sounds a lot of money but Brexit fears have knocked £100 billion from the value of FTSE companies this week, over £80 billion has been taken out of sterling reserves in the last few days and net vestments in the UK have stalled.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mackin USA on June 21, 2016, 01:20:11 PM
I don't like SOROS but the guy has been correct many times...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/20/brexit-would-trigger-sterling-fall-worse-than-black-wednesday
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JasonD on June 21, 2016, 03:27:12 PM
I completely agree with Soros' views.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rupert on June 21, 2016, 04:44:16 PM
Quote
I still suspect that the tabloids will decide this though.
  Yes the Sun tends to win elections, and they are for us getting out. 

I have to say, I am almost on the fence.  I really do not think it is nearly so simple a decision.  Also the headlines never seem to touch on the real issues.  They focus on irrelevancies like the direct costs of membership and immigration.

My postal vote was with a very heavy heart.  I don't think membership of the EU helps economically nearly as much as the big players would have us believe, and that one of the big reason for staying in is that the EU will fall apart of we pull out.  That said if we stay in it will probably just mean we are not the first so wont be blamed.

I don't trust people in power not to abuse their position if they can.  And the EU is set up for harbouring corruption/ gerrymandering/ with lobbyists getting more of a say than an MP.   Maybe the need for democracy is over, but I cannot believe it is.

But I hope that we are better off trying to change it from within than without.




Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: littleman on June 21, 2016, 05:42:40 PM
This has been interesting to watch from the sidelines.  It seems that the narrative from people in positions of authority is that it would be very bad for the Britain to leave.  There is lots of talk about punishment if Britain pulls out, but I bet what happens instead is that the EU will do everything it can to try to pull it back in and make massive concessions.  I don't think the EU will survive without the Brits.
 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JasonD on June 21, 2016, 05:52:23 PM
> I don't think the EU will survive without the Brits.

Agreed and that scares me. The world, and especially Europe, needs the EU... for all it's many faults.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rupert on June 21, 2016, 07:05:01 PM
Quote
EU will do everything it can to try to pull it back in and make massive concessions

If they can.  But if the country votes out, does that mean we get another vote?  There would be uproar if that happens.  Those who voted out, would accuse those proposing it as not having listened, and ask just how many votes do we have to do, until the answer is yes?  Which of course would be correct.

In theory I understand (might be wrong on this, as not sure of my source) that Parliament does not have to go with the result of the referendum.  In practice though they do.  If they don't, Farage would be voted in next time round.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JasonD on June 21, 2016, 07:22:12 PM
I am positive that Parliament will deliver legislation that mirrors the outcome of the vote.

To not do so, will see riots, turmoil and general carnage. Ironically, I think it would also breaks some of the EU's founding principles of self determination.

It's also... simply put... not the British way.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Torben on June 22, 2016, 08:17:08 AM
I you vote out. Scotland will probably want to leave UK so they can stay in the EU. In that scenario i could see another "still think this is a good idea?" referendum.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rooftop on June 22, 2016, 10:12:43 AM
... Farage would be voted in next time round.

My god I hope that could never happen.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rupert on June 22, 2016, 11:33:08 AM
Quote
... Farage would be voted in next time round.

My god I hope that could never happen.

It is isn't it? 
Or Trump, Boris, or even Marine Le Pen. 

Right bunch we could have running the world. All that lot in makes Putin seem quite reasonable.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: littleman on June 24, 2016, 03:42:40 AM
http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

Really close!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: littleman on June 24, 2016, 05:25:36 AM
Holly sh##.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Torben on June 24, 2016, 06:54:04 AM
Here comes the pain
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rupert on June 24, 2016, 09:05:26 AM
OK thats a shock.

I tip Theresa May to be the next PM.  I hope so.  Otherwise it will be Boris J or even Gove.

edited for the spelling of Theresa.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: sugarkane on June 24, 2016, 09:15:25 AM
I never, ever, thought I'd say it but I'm hoping for May too.

@ JasonD - you've opined in this direction before, but how long do you think London and the SE will be willing to continue subsidising the rest of the country, if Scotland goes, and they're left surrounded by Brexit-voting provinces?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rumbas on June 24, 2016, 09:29:13 AM
THAT was a extremely stupid move imo.

Looking at the age spread, it seems all the young Brits want to stay, all the seniors want to leave. Great f-ing move letting the old timers decide this.. gees..
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rupert on June 24, 2016, 10:06:30 AM
Quote
Great f-ing move letting the old timers decide this.. gees..
  Funny really. Scotland nearly voted out because the voting age was dropped to 16.

Quote
continue subsidising the rest of the country,
  well at least they wont have to subsidise Scotland.

Who is out next?  Or will is scare everyone to stay in?

However, I am feeling bold today, but I say within a month, the markets will be about where they were.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: keano on June 24, 2016, 10:20:59 AM
There are rumours that the Education Sec Nicky Morgan is planning a run at the leadership... Interesting times.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Brad on June 24, 2016, 11:18:35 AM
I never expected that to happen.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: BoL on June 24, 2016, 11:33:38 AM
Disappointing, it's gonna be a busy year or 10 sorting this out.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mackin USA on June 24, 2016, 12:01:25 PM
Bring on Contagion

Fing "Elites" should not be able to tell the people who to run their country. [END RANT]
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: sugarkane on June 24, 2016, 12:28:25 PM
> old timers

Quote in the Guardian newspaper:

"A generation given everything: free education, golden pensions, social mobility, have voted to strip my generation’s future.”
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mackin USA on June 24, 2016, 01:04:34 PM
Britain’s decision to leave the EU should be a cause for celebration here in America. Brexit embodies the very principles and ideals the American people hold dear to their hearts: self-determination, limited government, democratic accountability, and economic liberty. A truly free and powerful Great Britain is good for Europe and the United States. [Nile Gardiner]
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: ergophobe on June 24, 2016, 02:55:18 PM
I lived in Switzerland during the vote. When the Confederatio Helvetica voted no, people blamed the bakwards farmers (it was the rural no vote that carried the day). Doom and gloom. Catastrophe. CH left behind.

When the Iron Curtain came down, I wrote an essay... I wonder if I could find it... saying that I thought the long-term fate of the EU had been decided too. Without the deep polarization between East and West, it always seemed to me that the unions of mutual defense (not just NATO and the EU, but the UK and France) would feel a decentralizing pressure.

People forget that 150 years ago, the majority of people in France as we know it today did not even speak French. They forget that when the Prussians invaded, hatred for the central govt in Paris was so great that the French frontier regions locked their doors when the French army retreated and then came out to meet the Prussians with bread and wine.

There is a dual pressure from technology that pushes for centralization of the economy and decetralization of the society and polity. In the US we see this in the form of what they call The Big Sort.

I'm not sure what I'm trying to say or if I'm trying to say anything at all except that I'm surprised the EU experiment has lasted this long, but I don't think it's accidental that we're seeing the highwater mark (probably) just as the generation with personal memories of WWII exits the stage.

For them, the dream of the EU was a Europe at peace. For the current generation, it's about the economy. The economy was the means. Now it's the ends.

I don't know... I'm just an American spouting off. Not sure if any of that resonates at all with the Euros and Brits in the crowd. What do you think?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: BoL on June 24, 2016, 03:06:14 PM
ergo, I think there is something that definitely resonates with the older generation and them believing 'we are being ruled from Germany' that fuelled scepticism in our ability to govern ourselves.

The recent turmoils of the financial crisis, the ensuing Greece bailouts and the refugee/migration crisis over the past year certainly haven't helped breed confidence in the EU's ability to adapt and deal with problems, and work for its member states.

Some of the talking heads from UK political commentary speculated that many in the working class were using their vote as a protest, feeling that the establishment was not held accountable for the financial crisis and ensuing austerity that resulted in the UK, after huge government bailouts of our banks. This eeems quite controversial though.

I believe for many, the EU has seen to be ineffectual and cumbersome. Talk of 'an ever closer union' fuelled more scepticism.

The largest opposition party were strangely quiet throughout the whole debate, and it's pointed out a lot of their core voters turned out to vote leave, though the party line was to remain.

The biggest issue for people seemed to be immigration, and that the freedom of movement and 'unlimited' level of migration from the EU (IMO) is what swayed a lot of people to choose to leave.

Even as someone to vote remain, I appreciate that people who voted to join the EEC 40+ years ago now see it as a failed project.

It's early days but I feel as long as the EU/UK negotiations run reasonably smooth, the transition won't be too painful.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: ergophobe on June 24, 2016, 03:17:17 PM
Thanks for the perspective.

Those are the types of issues I was thinking of as wall fell. I felt that the long-term was more likely to bring Breton independence than European Union. I wasn't as tapped into the UK situation and did not see Scotland on the horizon.

But the idea that without an absolute survival need to be in bed with so many countries with substantially different cultures, the survival of the EU always seemed like a longshot.

I should say, that as a historian my focus is the sixteenth century, so I tend to take a long view. I didn't not necessarily think the EU would disintegrate in my lifetime. But I think all the forces you mention that came to the fore recently, have always been latent.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rupert on June 24, 2016, 03:22:49 PM
BoL  I am with you on that.  

The other issues  are the corruption, the gravy train, the un-audited accounts, the expansionist policies into Ukraine (look where that got us).
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: littleman on June 24, 2016, 05:40:56 PM
I bet this ends up being an exit-light by the time all the negotiation is done; something where there is a free trade agreement, easy travel between the UK and the EU, financial commitments will be fulfilled and the UK will have to comply with most EU regulations. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: ergophobe on June 24, 2016, 06:03:36 PM
And US bonds at... I think they said an 18-year high as GBP plunges. Dow down 2.7%
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: sugarkane on June 24, 2016, 06:42:05 PM
> exit-light

That would be the sensible option. But with the fervour that's been stoked up, I'm not sure how politically possible it would be.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on June 24, 2016, 06:45:27 PM
Ireland, anyone?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-ireland-investment-idUSKCN0ZA39T
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: ukgimp on June 24, 2016, 06:51:26 PM
I think it's great.

The establishment have not been listening and it's f###ed them over.

It was pretty much London and poor people. All politicians suck. They have to rethink.



Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Chunkford on June 25, 2016, 12:56:18 PM
I posted this on my FB wall, so I'll put it here as well.

Quote
Here's my prediction.
Cameron isn't leaving until October. There is no way anyone will want to sign article 50 of the Lisbon treaty until we have leadership. By that time everyone would have gotten over the initial shock and calmed down. The EU would have had time to see the bigger picture and realise they don't want to take the risk with us leaving, as it could start a chain reaction. So they reform and create a better situation for everyone, making the idea of leaving the EU more unappealing for member states.
What that reform is, who knows.
But if that happens and we're still in the EU, then I can see us all having another vote to decide if it's a better deal and to stay or still leave again
I could be wrong, but it's a thought.

I genuinely believe Cameron was being clever here, at the forfeit of his position.
Everyone now is like, whoa! hang on, lets not rush into this now.
Time will tell, and that's what is being given here.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JasonD on June 25, 2016, 01:11:11 PM
> how long do you think London and the SE will be willing to continue subsidising the rest of the country

Forever.

My only hope for Blighty and Europe as a whole, is whoever takes on the mantle of negotiations with the EU actually negotiates for change within the EU and in a year, we vote in another referendum to remain in the EU and end the Article 50(2) process.

I actually doubt that will happen and in practical terms we'll likely exit free trade to and from Europe, freedom of movement of people from "old EU member countries" but no freedom of movement for "new EU member countries" .

This will lead to huge job opportunities within the UK and immigration from new sources to fill these roles.

As old EU member country citizens won't fill those roles, we'll look back to the Commonwealth and allow free movement and easy access to incomers from Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and India then the man on the street will feel even more aggrieved as the new wave of incomers will not only not speak like Little Jonny, but also not look like little Jonny.

 In 10 years the nation will be in no better position than Italy or Spain, albeit without the weather, and economically and emotionally bankrupt with a huge rise in organisations and political parties even further to the right of Farage's UKIP.

This will lead to us allowing long term visas to Eastern European's that in effect place us in the same position we were when in the EU and without any say on how the organisation is run.

In 20 years time we'll be back to the status quo we have now.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JasonD on June 25, 2016, 04:01:56 PM
These two pictures sum up what happened and when read in conjunction with this story on the Guardian sum things up for me.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/voting-details-show-immigration-fears-were-paradoxical-but-decisive?CMP=share_btn_tw

The fear of immigration, rather than actual immigration delivered the Out win. Also, that fear trumped financial reality as the geographic areas most reliant on EU financial assistance are the ones that voted most heavily for Out
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Travoli on June 25, 2016, 08:17:53 PM
"People voting against their own interests" is an epidemic. Mackin, where does that fit into your apocalypse scenarios matrix?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Brad on June 26, 2016, 02:46:23 PM
Random Brad Thoughts:

1. Will there be a run on French wine in the UK in the next 2 years?

2.  How will Brexit effect my supply of Scotch whiskey here in the US and should I stockpile?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mackin USA on June 26, 2016, 04:16:08 PM
"apocalypse scenarios matrix"

I hope for the BEST

Plan for the WORST
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: buckworks on June 26, 2016, 07:15:03 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/24/the-british-are-frantically-googling-what-the-eu-is-hours-after-voting-to-leave-it/?tid=a_inl
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rooftop on June 26, 2016, 08:03:52 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/24/the-british-are-frantically-googling-what-the-eu-is-hours-after-voting-to-leave-it/?tid=a_inl

Not even funny.  The politically disconnected turned out in droves and voted based on whichever sides bullshit they believed and were most scared by (most leave with the "millions or brown faces stealing your jobs and waiting to bomb you" crap).

When I arrived to vote there were two couple ahead of me. The first were being given short treatment by the a polling station volunteer who was pointing out that they are at the polling station and they should use the one that is actually in the road that they live in. She asked if they had ever voted before. The answer was no... they were both in their forties.   At least they were better than the couple behind them - they were in the wrong town.

What is more scary though is how the vote is being taken as a legitimisation of racist views by the worst parts of society: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/eu-referendum-racism_uk_576fe161e4b08d2c56396075 
America should watch this.  I could see the same happening if Trump gets in, but "super-sized" .

I've never felt less British.   
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: ukgimp on June 27, 2016, 08:34:04 AM
Nothing really to do with immigration.

17M were not all racist, little Englanders that are a bit thick.

No wonder the 52 kept quiet as they are firmly in the firing line from the rest, the young (18-24 years = 38% turnout) and the establishment. You know all the clever people.

The establishment have been served.

This sums it up:
https://twitter.com/SkipLicker/status/747339495830257666
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rooftop on June 27, 2016, 10:06:03 AM

17M were not all racist, little Englanders that are a bit thick.

Agreed, but someone needs to tell the racists that.  The vote seems to have been taken as a public endorsement of racism.    Even in my polite sleepy little neck of the wood a blank mother and daughter (who's family have been local for decades) were just told in the supermarket that they have 2 years to pack.   In the school playground this morning two mum's were proudly declaring how "the Syrians can all f### off now"   (Even if Syria was in the EU I think they'd struggle to find a single syrian in our 99%+ white town)

I have no complaints about the politically engaged to wanted out for good reasons. There are many good reasons to want that. Sadly few of those were really discussed an a fair proportion of the 52% seem to have voted based on the lies and nonsense they were fed.   An awful campaign by both sides. Fear mongering by 'in', lies and fear mongering by 'out'.    It's going to be a long time before there are any winners (short-selling aside).

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: keano on June 27, 2016, 10:35:36 AM

I have no complaints about the politically engaged to wanted out for good reasons. There are many good reasons to want that. Sadly few of those were really discussed an a fair proportion of the 52% seem to have voted based on the lies and nonsense they were fed.   An awful campaign by both sides. Fear mongering by 'in', lies and fear mongering by 'out'.    It's going to be a long time before there are any winners (short-selling aside).


Completely agree that the campaign on both sides was awful. It seems to have been the standard electioneering type campaign driven by party politics when this should have been something entirely different.

Instead we had each side trying to score political points off the other (eventhough each side consisted of politicians from both main parties) rather than actually trying to inform voters on the positives and negatives of leave or stay. It is only after the results that we are starting to see more factual debate that should have taken place beforehand rather than trying to scare the electorate to vote one way or the other.

When push comes to shove the English can be a pretty obdurate bunch so when faced with such an appallingly negative campaign by the ruling party I think many thought enough is enough and voted to give Cameron a bloody nose regardless of the wider picture.

What I personally found troubling in all this was the role the media played. For example an outlet which generally speaking can be considered as even handed, the BBC seemed almost tabloid in nature. Rather than a balanced level of reporting on either side there was a real stoking of emotional arguments when a clear head was needed.

This vote, more than any as far back as I can remember was forged by a rabid media in my opinion.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rooftop on June 27, 2016, 10:42:15 AM
What I personally found troubling in all this was the role the media played. For example an outlet which generally speaking can be considered as even handed, the BBC seemed almost tabloid in nature. Rather than a balanced level of reporting on either side there was a real stoking of emotional arguments when a clear head was needed.

This has been really noticeable.  It's been really challenging trying to even find even-handed coverage.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rupert on June 27, 2016, 10:44:02 AM
Even the Independent, while claiming to be unbiased.  Was not.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: ukgimp on June 27, 2016, 11:03:12 AM
Media, all ball washing bastards.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mackin USA on June 27, 2016, 12:14:19 PM
Interesting CHART
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JasonD on June 27, 2016, 12:35:43 PM
In my view the Leave campaign won due to three simple points.

They had a partially aspirational message - "Great Britain can be great again and rule ourselves"

and

"Immigration is bad"

And the Remain campaign had one terrible message of Doom and Gloom if we leave.

The Remain camp were honest the leave camp less so, but the Remain camp needed to address aspiration and immigration. They didn't touch either.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: ergophobe on June 27, 2016, 05:43:54 PM
1.
"Great Britain can be great again and rule ourselves... " and "Immigration is bad"

2.
America should watch this.  I could see the same happening if Trump gets in, but "super-sized" .

3. Nothing left to add...
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: littleman on June 27, 2016, 07:24:07 PM
John Oliver on the Brexit (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ikd7A2VuHs)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mackin USA on June 27, 2016, 08:14:22 PM
Very funny BUT
It's sad that some MFs get their NEWS from "Late Night"  :(
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: littleman on June 27, 2016, 08:34:17 PM
It is not news, but entertainment mixed with commentary.  That said, I don't think it is any worse than many other editorial sources.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: BoL on June 27, 2016, 11:54:58 PM
I find him funny.

See England exited the Euro's again.... and Scotland once again done it differently by not bothering to qualify in the first place.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Chunkford on June 28, 2016, 10:29:01 AM
It may never happen judging by previous voting:
(http://i.imgur.com/woL0MG3.jpg)
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Dont-Answer-Lewis-Baston-Ritchie/dp/1849542074/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1467032342&sr=1-2
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: ukgimp on June 28, 2016, 10:39:44 AM
I don't see the UK on there.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Chunkford on June 28, 2016, 10:51:24 AM
It may do if the book is revised, who knows.
The vote was never legally binding anyway and all depends if the next person in charge has the bottle to go against the majority.
But then the damage is done.... I don't know. It's a bloody mess. England being knocked out of the Euros last night hasn't helped with my head
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rupert on June 29, 2016, 02:33:20 PM
last night I was truly embarrassed to be British, listening to Farage in Brussels yesterday.

Quote
In Brussels – biff! – Nigel Farage did his bit for diplomacy by telling the European Parliament: ‘Virtually none of you have ever done a proper job in your lives’.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3665082/The-MEPs-clucked-like-barn-free-range-hens-QUENTIN-LETTS-sees-Nigel-Farage-outrage-Brussels.html#ixzz4CylCSZph

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: BoL on June 29, 2016, 02:51:57 PM
Quote
US bank JP Morgan has said it now expects Scotland to vote for independence and introduce its own currency before Britain leaves the European Union in 2019.

JP Morgan economist Malcolm Barr said in a note to clients: "Our base case is that Scotland will vote for independence and institute a new currency at that point (2019)"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36656980?intlink_from_url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

You can take our EU, but you can never take away our neverendum!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: littleman on June 29, 2016, 05:27:03 PM
Would the EU take Scotland on its own?  I mean, it is not guaranteed, and if they left the UK without being part of the EU they could be in a bad way.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: BoL on June 29, 2016, 05:34:42 PM
Highly doubtful by the looks of it.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: bill on June 30, 2016, 12:58:13 AM
As Chunkford noted, like all of the other important EU referendums, won't they just keep holding them until they get the result they wanted? Worked for them with the Lisbon treaty. How many times was that one rejected?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JasonD on June 30, 2016, 09:15:40 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a6HNXtdvVQ
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: ukgimp on June 30, 2016, 09:19:12 AM
Blaming the thick is not right as we are not all thick and racist.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rupert on June 30, 2016, 10:15:10 AM
 With you Rich. There was a very good reason for voting out... The Democratic Deficit. I don't blame anyone.

There are many opportunities too. The EU bureaucracy is too big, to invasive and too powerful.  Europe is stagnating. 

There could be a "Northern Powerhouse" UK, Norway, Sweden, Denmark... with a "EU light".  Germany and France want to sell to us...  they might talk tough, but they need us.

It is going to be tough, but it might harden people up a bit. I do find the hate sooo sad though, it is so unnecessary.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Chunkford on June 30, 2016, 01:03:25 PM
A mate of mine has said something interesting today about the EU.
He reckons the reason why the 'EU' wants Turkey to join is because they have the people power to help create this EU army that is being spouted.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: littleman on June 30, 2016, 07:15:07 PM
I'm still trying to conceive what the Brexit will mean in practice.  The UK already has its own currency (seemed like a smart thing to maintain to me).  Odds are there will be free trade between the UK and EU nations when all is negotiated.  UK products will have to conform to EU standards for products.  So, it seems to me that the major issue left is immigration -- which seems like a major issue in most of the wealthier nations in the EU.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JasonD on June 30, 2016, 07:28:38 PM
The outcome will likely be the same as we had before, but with no voice on changing anything.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rupert on June 30, 2016, 07:32:08 PM
Sad but True...  but perhaps not entirely true.

 We will likely be free to make our own deals with others. I am sure they will be other benefits we cannot yet see... like a weaker £ perhaps.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JasonD on June 30, 2016, 07:36:49 PM
> We will likely be free to make our own deals with others

Were we ever unable to do deals on our own? I don't believe so, hence why we recently got into bed with China, much to America's chagrin.


>Weaker £GBP

I can see us at parity with the USD by the time we get the leave deal finalised.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mackin USA on July 01, 2016, 04:36:39 PM
"conform to EU standards"

That, imo is as big an issue as immigration.
But I'm not living in the UK
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on July 13, 2016, 05:03:11 PM
So, as some of you opined, you ended up with Theresa May. (By attrition, or so it seemed from here as all the others withdrew. Last Stupidest man standing?) Now what?

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/brexit-referendum/theresa-may-bloody-difficult-woman-be-u-k-prime-minister-n608001
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JasonD on July 13, 2016, 05:32:43 PM
I am not a Conservative (big C) in my politics nor thinking but I truly believe, if we put party politics aside, she is the right person for the job, out of the available candidates.

She is a conviction politician who hasn't played the "old boys network" card, mostly because she didn't have one to play. She's arrived to her position through being a great, but not perfect, politician, who works harder than  most others.

That isn't to say I agree with all her views as Home Secretary. The RIP Act - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulation_of_Investigatory_Powers_Act_2000 and later versions that sh's still trying to push through are draconian and wrong but...... I believe she is doing so for the betterment of security for the UK, rather than some other reasons or personal goals.

I will say that we're in unprecedented times politically - Leaving the EU, an opposition in disarray, the GBP£ a shadow of it's former self and pretty much no money in the piggy bank.... Hard times indeed with an even tougher job ahead of her.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rooftop on July 13, 2016, 09:09:57 PM
She gives a good speach,  but there is quite a gap between what she has publicly said lately and her past voting record.

Let's hope that she's had some sort of epiphany and isn't just continuing the recent theme of unashamed  dishonesty in British politics.  We'll see.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on July 14, 2016, 01:18:20 AM
Well, time to grab some popcorn and pull up a seat.

She named former London mayor and fervent Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson as the new Foreign Secretary.

http://time.com/4405504/boris-johnson-foreign-secretary-theresa-may/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mackin USA on July 14, 2016, 01:44:49 PM
#popcorn

Interesting times on both sides of da POND
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: sugarkane on July 14, 2016, 02:55:56 PM
> fervent Brexit campaigner

...although by all accounts not such a fervent believer in it.

"You made the mess, you clear it up..." springs to mind.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: gm66 on July 23, 2016, 11:42:17 PM
i haven'#t read the previous psots on this but all i can say (~sorry typos pissed tonight) is that it can't be a good thing to have yet another layer of bureacracy, lies, corruption, We have enough of that in the UK let alone having anotjher layer of bullshit on top.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on August 03, 2016, 06:13:33 PM
Hoo Boy.

"One problem is that the U.K. hasn’t negotiated a trade deal alone since the early 1970s and so lacks officials skilled in doing so."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-25/the-beginners-guide-to-brexit-what-have-we-learned-so-far
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JasonD on August 03, 2016, 10:44:00 PM
To be fair, one thing the UK has done exceptionally well in recent times and history.... is diplomacy and negotiation, if not negotiation of trade deals.

That part I am not too concerned about
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: bill on August 04, 2016, 12:02:45 PM
Just watched a piece on CNN. Some British manufacturers saying that all the hype was overblown and that their business is doing better than before. I'm sure that's not the case everywhere, but it was surprising to see (on CNN). They're usually the sky is falling news channel.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: JasonD on August 04, 2016, 12:10:00 PM
> Some British manufacturers saying {snip} that their business is doing better than before

If the British business is an export based and the product can be sourced from multiple countries then they should be doing better. The Pound has crashed yet the markets available to buy from us are still the same as before... At the moment, we are still within the EU

So if you were a German company buying 10,000 widgets and had suppliers in Europe (using the EUR) and Britain (using the GBP), suddenly the British seller would be much cheaper than before. For me, that's not a long term thing and can only be short lived, as when we leave that same market won't be available or the GBP will have risen.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: nffc on August 04, 2016, 04:20:00 PM
>Some British manufacturers saying that all the hype was overblown and that their business is doing better than before

If they are exporting then sure they will, £ is very very low.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rupert on August 24, 2016, 08:47:05 AM
Most countries dream of a weaker currency.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on August 24, 2016, 11:04:08 AM
UK Labour leadership candidate says will block Brexit talks if no second vote

http://in.reuters.com/article/britain-eu-labour-idINKCN10Z0NM
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: littleman on August 24, 2016, 05:53:07 PM
We saw this coming.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Brad on August 24, 2016, 07:28:29 PM
Didn't Holland reject some EU treaty once and they made them revote on it repeatedly until people changed their minds? Or was that Denmark?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: bill on September 05, 2016, 02:52:17 AM
That was the Lisbon Treaty. I recall that they made Ireland vote on it several times until it passed. They were the last hold-out I think. The same "reconsideration" vote happened elsewhere too IIRC.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rooftop on September 06, 2016, 05:13:46 PM
Lost my second good client due to post Brexit collapse of GBP.   Sucks.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: littleman on September 06, 2016, 05:31:21 PM
Ouch, sorry Rupert.  Any chance of tapping into the US market now that you have a competitive advantage?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on November 23, 2016, 06:29:59 PM
update:

file this under I-told-you-so

Hammond Forecast in Line With Osborne’s ‘Brazen’ Brexit Warnings

Quote
Osborne warned in June that there would have to be spending cuts and tax rises to deal with the shortfall.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-23/hammond-forecast-in-line-with-osborne-s-brazen-brexit-warnings
Title: Brexit: Check. Trump: Check. Marine Le Pen: ? AND Italy
Post by: Mackin USA on November 29, 2016, 02:52:08 PM
"Europe Will Devalue Or Dissolve..."

Brexit: Check. Trump: Check. Marine Le Pen: ?

“I think that the elites have lived too long among themselves. We are in a world where globalization, which is an ideology, has forgotten, and put aside the people, the people’s interests, aspirations, and dreams,” National Front party leader and French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen told CNBC following Trump’s election victory.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-29/europe-will-devalue-or-dissolve

Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on May 02, 2017, 11:43:31 AM
“Remember when we cried as children & our parents said “we’ll give you something to cry about”? – We thought we were getting a smack – instead, instead they destroyed the housing market, quadrupled uni fees, melted the ice caps & voted Brexit.”

http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2017/05/02/sign-outside-bristol-pub-pretty-nose/
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Mackin USA on May 02, 2017, 01:48:02 PM
Now that's just funny right there
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on May 02, 2017, 02:15:35 PM
> that's just funny

..in a sorta sad & truthful way, hhh.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: littleman on May 02, 2017, 06:32:54 PM
>..in a sorta sad & truthful way, hhh.

Yeah.  So many slow train wrecks coming.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: ergophobe on May 02, 2017, 09:47:31 PM
The Greatest Generation!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: littleman on May 02, 2017, 11:35:55 PM
...but it isn't the WW2 gen making the call anymore.  I would argue that they were more rational considering the information they had available at the time.  The macro level decisions we are making today are on Boomers and GenXers.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on July 21, 2017, 10:58:04 PM
Ouch!

Britons travelling to Europe offered just 88 euro cents for £1
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/21/britons-travelling-to-europe-offered-just-88-euro-cents-to-the-pound
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: aaron on July 22, 2017, 03:28:27 PM
Even as a traveler with little know how one should know the airport & corner exchange shop are horrible. It is not uncommon to see a 20% or even 30% spread between some of the fairly common currency pairs. Not sure how many locals use those services though as the post office there offers reasonably tight spreads for fairly small cash exchange.

At £400 their rate is €1.0886. It goes to €1.0914 @ £500 & €1.0931 @ £1,000.
http://www.postoffice.co.uk/foreign-currency

That's around a 20% difference between their rates and those scammy rates offered at airports.

I guess I understand absurd rates if you are cashing in rarely used Turkish Lira or some exotic far away currency, but if someone else is profitable at 20% difference for the same exact thing, that's an atrocious rate.

To put that 20% craziness in perspective, after Brexit vote the currency shift was about 10%.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/23/british-pound-given-boost-by-projected-remain-win-in-eu-referendum
So you'd need a couple more unforeseen and/or heavily bet against black swans like Brexit to make that exchange rate reasonable.

according to Oanda
https://www.oanda.com/currency/converter/
the spot rate for £ to  €  is €1.11460.

Post Office spread
1.1146-1.0914=0.0232
0.0232/1.1146= 2.08% spread

exchange shop spread
1.1146-0.88=0.2346
0.2346/1.1146=21.04% spread

relative spread
21.04/2.08= charging 10.115X the cost for the exchange service as one can get as a walk off the street service at the post office

even a Travelex card looks like an extreme deal compared to those terrible currency exchange shops.
https://www.travelex.co.uk/currency/about-currency/euros
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on October 16, 2017, 01:08:06 PM
reddit comments worth a read;

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/76p8ui/brexit_is_turning_into_a_disaster_says_vote_leave/


The macro view from my feeds' headlines indicate that the UK politicos in charge of Brexit seem to be getting some sort of reality check.   From what we see in the US, my sense of it says it's going to cost a lot more than the initial projections.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on November 12, 2017, 03:13:06 PM
Here's the first evidence Russia used Twitter to influence Brexit

http://www.wired.co.uk/article/brexit-russia-influence-twitter-bots-internet-research-agency
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: littleman on June 11, 2018, 06:12:20 PM
Quote
Investigations by the Sunday Times and the Observer newspapers revealed the Leave campaign’s biggest backer, businessman Aaron Banks, met with Alexander Yakovenko, the Russian ambassador to the U.K., at least three times in the months leading up to the vote to exit the European Union, and even invited him to a Brexit results party in Westminster.

Banks also exchanged emails with the embassy and other Russian officials, including Alexander Udod, a diplomat who was subsequently expelled from the U.K. over the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter.


https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/zm8gz9/trump-russia-aaron-banks-brexit-farage
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on June 12, 2018, 01:58:35 PM
Going all pear-shaped.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: buckworks on July 06, 2018, 01:24:10 PM
>> pear-shaped.

Say more.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on July 09, 2018, 03:36:36 PM
>say more

I was hoping a Brit would jump in.  At the time, "pear-shaped" was more of a feeling or intuitive guess I Debbie drew from the large cloud of headlines I she saw running through my her feeds. Looks like I she might have been right, Boris resigned today.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rupert on July 09, 2018, 06:03:56 PM
Pear Shaped.. yes, feels like it....

The problem is, Brussels does not want us to go, so they wont agree to anything we come up with. It will be messy. 
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Brad on July 09, 2018, 07:30:04 PM
Brexit or no Brexit I wouldn't bet on their being a EU in 10 years.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on July 10, 2018, 01:48:55 AM
The End of the Brexit Illusion
The grand promises of withdrawal from the European Union run aground on the tedious and technical details that campaigners ignored.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/07/the-end-of-the-brexit-illusion/564725/

Quote
They have resigned in protest that the plan is not fantastical enough, that it does not rely enough on fairy dust and magic wishes.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: BoL on July 10, 2018, 08:53:07 AM
>details that campaigners ignored.

That's how I'm seeing it. Boris Johnson likes sounding like Churchill but totally lacks the cahonas, and TBF has walked away from the problem twice. A coward.

The whole charade feels a bit like England has an identity crisis. Hopefully they win the World Cup and call the whole thing off.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rupert on July 10, 2018, 09:03:13 AM
Quote
As time dribbles away, the British government has backed into ever-greater concessions to the European Union point of view—without coming any closer to a finished agreement by the deadline of March 29, 2019.

They apparently have no choice.  The EU will not negociate.  So whatever we want it is going to be a hard Brexit. imho.

(aside) .
To me the free movement of people from the EU is not an issue, and never should have been. Half the people who voted, voted it seems because of that and that was STUPID.   Yet still they are trying to control it in Brexit. If you consider immigration a problem, then the issues are from the rest of the world.  And it a big IF.

 The only reason to leave, was because the EU is not a democracy (OK what is? ), but at least we can remove our govt. The rules from the EU are too far reaching, sometimes more than the US system of Federal law it seems.
They are self serving leaders, who are corrupt.  That why we should have voted out. (rant over)

Quote
Hopefully they win the World Cup and call the whole thing off.
;)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Chunkford on July 10, 2018, 10:14:51 AM
The UK is in the EU with opt-outs.
But the UK wants out of the EU with opt-ins.

Anyone else scratches their head when they try and work that out?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: keano on July 10, 2018, 11:35:09 AM
Brexit is just too wide ranging a subject to have been broached in a simple yes/no referendum (which is technically not legally binding btw). Speak to 10 different people and they will likely give you 10 different reasons why they voted the way they did. It was ridiculous for the referendum to be presented in such a binary and finite way.

Add to the fact that that there seemed to be some dubious claims from the leave camp whilst campaigning which they seemingly won't be held accountable for in any meaningful way and you end up with a subject that nobody fully understands with no clear path forward.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Adam C on July 11, 2018, 08:20:26 AM
The UK is in the EU with opt-outs.
But the UK wants out of the EU with opt-ins.

That's the single best argument I've heard to date for Brexit
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: Rupert on July 11, 2018, 10:17:25 AM
I have quoted that line a couple of times too Chuckford :)
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: ergophobe on July 11, 2018, 07:45:48 PM
The UK is in the EU with opt-outs.
But the UK wants out of the EU with opt-ins.

So basically the UK wants to grow up to be Switzerland?
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on July 11, 2018, 08:56:06 PM
NOW you've done it! Cleese is leaving the UK.

http://www.newser.com/story/261814/why-john-cleese-is-leaving-the-uk.html
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: gm66 on August 25, 2018, 03:37:19 PM
The working class people of the UK voted to exit, now the middle classes are paying to reverse the decision, democracy in action!
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on August 25, 2018, 07:00:22 PM
From the flurry of headlines I've seen over the last couple of weeks, it's still shaping up to be a very costly exit with a big dose of PITA over the long term.
Title: Re: Brexit
Post by: rcjordan on October 16, 2018, 03:52:36 PM
From here, it looks like May is getting her a## handed to her.