The Core
Why We Are Here => Economics & Investing => Topic started by: rcjordan on June 14, 2016, 11:08:57 PM
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Four polls put the “Leave” campaign ahead of “Remain” as Rupert Murdoch's Sun Tabloid Urges Britons to Quit the EU, sending stocks and the pound down.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-13/four-polls-put-u-k-on-course-to-leave-eu-as-sun-backs-brexit
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If it happens, there's the knock on effect of whether individual UK countries wanted to remain or not... and even if there'll be an EU to be in if Scotland decided to go down the indie referendum route... again. It's a pretty big gamble.
The EU love-in of countries is certainly going through a rocky patch.
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The uncertainty is costing us already. The pound dropping sharply against the dollar has cost us 2 US customers already.
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We are stuffed if we are in and stuffed if we are out.
From a retail perspective, (present company excluded, as I suspect most here still have the agility to ride it) it has been a pretty poor year. < imho>.
Just looking at jobs lost we are heading for the worst year since 2007:
http://www.retailresearch.org/whosegonebust.php
And neither result will solve that.
added: If you are betting, as far as elections go, I understand the Sun normally drives the result, which means we are likely to be coming out.
I swing both ways... it depends if we are on and odd or even day of the month I think. But am currently voting in with a very heavy heart. The fallout from coming out is going to be huge in Europe</again imho>
But then the cost of staying in will be high too. Its not going to be pretty... and I tend to think of myself as an optimist....
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> uncertainty
A friend of mine here in Austria works for a large agricultural machinery manufacturer. They've just dumped their main UK parts supplier, preferring to deal with an Irish company who can be counted on to remain in the EU (so long as it lasts, that is). I suspect there's a lot of that going on.
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If the vote is to EXIT the world could go DEEPER into recession or WORSE
IMFO
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Per Google more Brits searching for leave than remain.
http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2461697/brexit-more-brits-are-searching-for-leave-than-remain-says-google
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Per Google more Brits searching for leave than remain.
http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2461697/brexit-more-brits-are-searching-for-leave-than-remain-says-google
Hopefully this is because they're double checking whether there is any actual argument for leaving that makes sense. Literally did this myself the other day. I'm a staunch supporter of us staying in the EU, but did look for any sensible sites with good arguments to stay.
I still suspect that the tabloids will decide this though.
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Finance Bill - This would abolish the 5% rate of VAT on household energy bills by amending the Value Added Tax Act 1994. It would be paid for by savings from the UK's contributions to the EU budget, Vote Leave said
National Health Service (Funding Target) Bill - The NHS would receive a £100m per week real-terms cash "transfusion", to be paid for by savings from leaving the EU
Asylum and Immigration Control Bill - "To end the automatic right of all EU citizens to enter the UK"
Free Trade Bill - The UK leaves the EU's "common commercial policy" to "restore the UK government's power to control its own trade policy"
European Communities Act 1972 (Repeal) Bill - The European Communities Act 1972, "the legal basis for the supremacy of EU law in the UK", will be repealed. "The EU Treaties will cease to form part of UK law and the European Court's jurisdiction over the UK will end," said Vote Leave.
Source BBC
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Barry Lloyd and Andy Atkins-Krueger shared Paula Kirby's photo.
They posted:
It is 0.5% of our expenditure. Approximately, £8.5 billion a year currently. Sounds a lot of money but Brexit fears have knocked £100 billion from the value of FTSE companies this week, over £80 billion has been taken out of sterling reserves in the last few days and net vestments in the UK have stalled.
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I don't like SOROS but the guy has been correct many times...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/20/brexit-would-trigger-sterling-fall-worse-than-black-wednesday
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I completely agree with Soros' views.
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I still suspect that the tabloids will decide this though.
Yes the Sun tends to win elections, and they are for us getting out.
I have to say, I am almost on the fence. I really do not think it is nearly so simple a decision. Also the headlines never seem to touch on the real issues. They focus on irrelevancies like the direct costs of membership and immigration.
My postal vote was with a very heavy heart. I don't think membership of the EU helps economically nearly as much as the big players would have us believe, and that one of the big reason for staying in is that the EU will fall apart of we pull out. That said if we stay in it will probably just mean we are not the first so wont be blamed.
I don't trust people in power not to abuse their position if they can. And the EU is set up for harbouring corruption/ gerrymandering/ with lobbyists getting more of a say than an MP. Maybe the need for democracy is over, but I cannot believe it is.
But I hope that we are better off trying to change it from within than without.
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This has been interesting to watch from the sidelines. It seems that the narrative from people in positions of authority is that it would be very bad for the Britain to leave. There is lots of talk about punishment if Britain pulls out, but I bet what happens instead is that the EU will do everything it can to try to pull it back in and make massive concessions. I don't think the EU will survive without the Brits.
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> I don't think the EU will survive without the Brits.
Agreed and that scares me. The world, and especially Europe, needs the EU... for all it's many faults.
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EU will do everything it can to try to pull it back in and make massive concessions
If they can. But if the country votes out, does that mean we get another vote? There would be uproar if that happens. Those who voted out, would accuse those proposing it as not having listened, and ask just how many votes do we have to do, until the answer is yes? Which of course would be correct.
In theory I understand (might be wrong on this, as not sure of my source) that Parliament does not have to go with the result of the referendum. In practice though they do. If they don't, Farage would be voted in next time round.
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I am positive that Parliament will deliver legislation that mirrors the outcome of the vote.
To not do so, will see riots, turmoil and general carnage. Ironically, I think it would also breaks some of the EU's founding principles of self determination.
It's also... simply put... not the British way.
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I you vote out. Scotland will probably want to leave UK so they can stay in the EU. In that scenario i could see another "still think this is a good idea?" referendum.
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... Farage would be voted in next time round.
My god I hope that could never happen.
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... Farage would be voted in next time round.
My god I hope that could never happen.
It is isn't it?
Or Trump, Boris, or even Marine Le Pen.
Right bunch we could have running the world. All that lot in makes Putin seem quite reasonable.
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http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results
Really close!
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Holly sh##.
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Here comes the pain
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OK thats a shock.
I tip Theresa May to be the next PM. I hope so. Otherwise it will be Boris J or even Gove.
edited for the spelling of Theresa.
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I never, ever, thought I'd say it but I'm hoping for May too.
@ JasonD - you've opined in this direction before, but how long do you think London and the SE will be willing to continue subsidising the rest of the country, if Scotland goes, and they're left surrounded by Brexit-voting provinces?
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THAT was a extremely stupid move imo.
Looking at the age spread, it seems all the young Brits want to stay, all the seniors want to leave. Great f-ing move letting the old timers decide this.. gees..
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Great f-ing move letting the old timers decide this.. gees..
Funny really. Scotland nearly voted out because the voting age was dropped to 16.
continue subsidising the rest of the country,
well at least they wont have to subsidise Scotland.
Who is out next? Or will is scare everyone to stay in?
However, I am feeling bold today, but I say within a month, the markets will be about where they were.
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There are rumours that the Education Sec Nicky Morgan is planning a run at the leadership... Interesting times.
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I never expected that to happen.
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Disappointing, it's gonna be a busy year or 10 sorting this out.
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Bring on Contagion
Fing "Elites" should not be able to tell the people who to run their country. [END RANT]
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> old timers
Quote in the Guardian newspaper:
"A generation given everything: free education, golden pensions, social mobility, have voted to strip my generation’s future.”
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Britain’s decision to leave the EU should be a cause for celebration here in America. Brexit embodies the very principles and ideals the American people hold dear to their hearts: self-determination, limited government, democratic accountability, and economic liberty. A truly free and powerful Great Britain is good for Europe and the United States. [Nile Gardiner]
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I lived in Switzerland during the vote. When the Confederatio Helvetica voted no, people blamed the bakwards farmers (it was the rural no vote that carried the day). Doom and gloom. Catastrophe. CH left behind.
When the Iron Curtain came down, I wrote an essay... I wonder if I could find it... saying that I thought the long-term fate of the EU had been decided too. Without the deep polarization between East and West, it always seemed to me that the unions of mutual defense (not just NATO and the EU, but the UK and France) would feel a decentralizing pressure.
People forget that 150 years ago, the majority of people in France as we know it today did not even speak French. They forget that when the Prussians invaded, hatred for the central govt in Paris was so great that the French frontier regions locked their doors when the French army retreated and then came out to meet the Prussians with bread and wine.
There is a dual pressure from technology that pushes for centralization of the economy and decetralization of the society and polity. In the US we see this in the form of what they call The Big Sort.
I'm not sure what I'm trying to say or if I'm trying to say anything at all except that I'm surprised the EU experiment has lasted this long, but I don't think it's accidental that we're seeing the highwater mark (probably) just as the generation with personal memories of WWII exits the stage.
For them, the dream of the EU was a Europe at peace. For the current generation, it's about the economy. The economy was the means. Now it's the ends.
I don't know... I'm just an American spouting off. Not sure if any of that resonates at all with the Euros and Brits in the crowd. What do you think?
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ergo, I think there is something that definitely resonates with the older generation and them believing 'we are being ruled from Germany' that fuelled scepticism in our ability to govern ourselves.
The recent turmoils of the financial crisis, the ensuing Greece bailouts and the refugee/migration crisis over the past year certainly haven't helped breed confidence in the EU's ability to adapt and deal with problems, and work for its member states.
Some of the talking heads from UK political commentary speculated that many in the working class were using their vote as a protest, feeling that the establishment was not held accountable for the financial crisis and ensuing austerity that resulted in the UK, after huge government bailouts of our banks. This eeems quite controversial though.
I believe for many, the EU has seen to be ineffectual and cumbersome. Talk of 'an ever closer union' fuelled more scepticism.
The largest opposition party were strangely quiet throughout the whole debate, and it's pointed out a lot of their core voters turned out to vote leave, though the party line was to remain.
The biggest issue for people seemed to be immigration, and that the freedom of movement and 'unlimited' level of migration from the EU (IMO) is what swayed a lot of people to choose to leave.
Even as someone to vote remain, I appreciate that people who voted to join the EEC 40+ years ago now see it as a failed project.
It's early days but I feel as long as the EU/UK negotiations run reasonably smooth, the transition won't be too painful.
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Thanks for the perspective.
Those are the types of issues I was thinking of as wall fell. I felt that the long-term was more likely to bring Breton independence than European Union. I wasn't as tapped into the UK situation and did not see Scotland on the horizon.
But the idea that without an absolute survival need to be in bed with so many countries with substantially different cultures, the survival of the EU always seemed like a longshot.
I should say, that as a historian my focus is the sixteenth century, so I tend to take a long view. I didn't not necessarily think the EU would disintegrate in my lifetime. But I think all the forces you mention that came to the fore recently, have always been latent.
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BoL I am with you on that.
The other issues are the corruption, the gravy train, the un-audited accounts, the expansionist policies into Ukraine (look where that got us).
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I bet this ends up being an exit-light by the time all the negotiation is done; something where there is a free trade agreement, easy travel between the UK and the EU, financial commitments will be fulfilled and the UK will have to comply with most EU regulations.
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And US bonds at... I think they said an 18-year high as GBP plunges. Dow down 2.7%
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> exit-light
That would be the sensible option. But with the fervour that's been stoked up, I'm not sure how politically possible it would be.
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Ireland, anyone?
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-ireland-investment-idUSKCN0ZA39T
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I think it's great.
The establishment have not been listening and it's f###ed them over.
It was pretty much London and poor people. All politicians suck. They have to rethink.
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I posted this on my FB wall, so I'll put it here as well.
Here's my prediction.
Cameron isn't leaving until October. There is no way anyone will want to sign article 50 of the Lisbon treaty until we have leadership. By that time everyone would have gotten over the initial shock and calmed down. The EU would have had time to see the bigger picture and realise they don't want to take the risk with us leaving, as it could start a chain reaction. So they reform and create a better situation for everyone, making the idea of leaving the EU more unappealing for member states.
What that reform is, who knows.
But if that happens and we're still in the EU, then I can see us all having another vote to decide if it's a better deal and to stay or still leave again
I could be wrong, but it's a thought.
I genuinely believe Cameron was being clever here, at the forfeit of his position.
Everyone now is like, whoa! hang on, lets not rush into this now.
Time will tell, and that's what is being given here.
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> how long do you think London and the SE will be willing to continue subsidising the rest of the country
Forever.
My only hope for Blighty and Europe as a whole, is whoever takes on the mantle of negotiations with the EU actually negotiates for change within the EU and in a year, we vote in another referendum to remain in the EU and end the Article 50(2) process.
I actually doubt that will happen and in practical terms we'll likely exit free trade to and from Europe, freedom of movement of people from "old EU member countries" but no freedom of movement for "new EU member countries" .
This will lead to huge job opportunities within the UK and immigration from new sources to fill these roles.
As old EU member country citizens won't fill those roles, we'll look back to the Commonwealth and allow free movement and easy access to incomers from Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and India then the man on the street will feel even more aggrieved as the new wave of incomers will not only not speak like Little Jonny, but also not look like little Jonny.
In 10 years the nation will be in no better position than Italy or Spain, albeit without the weather, and economically and emotionally bankrupt with a huge rise in organisations and political parties even further to the right of Farage's UKIP.
This will lead to us allowing long term visas to Eastern European's that in effect place us in the same position we were when in the EU and without any say on how the organisation is run.
In 20 years time we'll be back to the status quo we have now.
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These two pictures sum up what happened and when read in conjunction with this story on the Guardian sum things up for me.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/voting-details-show-immigration-fears-were-paradoxical-but-decisive?CMP=share_btn_tw
The fear of immigration, rather than actual immigration delivered the Out win. Also, that fear trumped financial reality as the geographic areas most reliant on EU financial assistance are the ones that voted most heavily for Out
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"People voting against their own interests" is an epidemic. Mackin, where does that fit into your apocalypse scenarios matrix?
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Random Brad Thoughts:
1. Will there be a run on French wine in the UK in the next 2 years?
2. How will Brexit effect my supply of Scotch whiskey here in the US and should I stockpile?
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"apocalypse scenarios matrix"
I hope for the BEST
Plan for the WORST
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/24/the-british-are-frantically-googling-what-the-eu-is-hours-after-voting-to-leave-it/?tid=a_inl
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/24/the-british-are-frantically-googling-what-the-eu-is-hours-after-voting-to-leave-it/?tid=a_inl
Not even funny. The politically disconnected turned out in droves and voted based on whichever sides bullshit they believed and were most scared by (most leave with the "millions or brown faces stealing your jobs and waiting to bomb you" crap).
When I arrived to vote there were two couple ahead of me. The first were being given short treatment by the a polling station volunteer who was pointing out that they are at the polling station and they should use the one that is actually in the road that they live in. She asked if they had ever voted before. The answer was no... they were both in their forties. At least they were better than the couple behind them - they were in the wrong town.
What is more scary though is how the vote is being taken as a legitimisation of racist views by the worst parts of society: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/eu-referendum-racism_uk_576fe161e4b08d2c56396075
America should watch this. I could see the same happening if Trump gets in, but "super-sized" .
I've never felt less British.
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Nothing really to do with immigration.
17M were not all racist, little Englanders that are a bit thick.
No wonder the 52 kept quiet as they are firmly in the firing line from the rest, the young (18-24 years = 38% turnout) and the establishment. You know all the clever people.
The establishment have been served.
This sums it up:
https://twitter.com/SkipLicker/status/747339495830257666
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17M were not all racist, little Englanders that are a bit thick.
Agreed, but someone needs to tell the racists that. The vote seems to have been taken as a public endorsement of racism. Even in my polite sleepy little neck of the wood a blank mother and daughter (who's family have been local for decades) were just told in the supermarket that they have 2 years to pack. In the school playground this morning two mum's were proudly declaring how "the Syrians can all f### off now" (Even if Syria was in the EU I think they'd struggle to find a single syrian in our 99%+ white town)
I have no complaints about the politically engaged to wanted out for good reasons. There are many good reasons to want that. Sadly few of those were really discussed an a fair proportion of the 52% seem to have voted based on the lies and nonsense they were fed. An awful campaign by both sides. Fear mongering by 'in', lies and fear mongering by 'out'. It's going to be a long time before there are any winners (short-selling aside).
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I have no complaints about the politically engaged to wanted out for good reasons. There are many good reasons to want that. Sadly few of those were really discussed an a fair proportion of the 52% seem to have voted based on the lies and nonsense they were fed. An awful campaign by both sides. Fear mongering by 'in', lies and fear mongering by 'out'. It's going to be a long time before there are any winners (short-selling aside).
Completely agree that the campaign on both sides was awful. It seems to have been the standard electioneering type campaign driven by party politics when this should have been something entirely different.
Instead we had each side trying to score political points off the other (eventhough each side consisted of politicians from both main parties) rather than actually trying to inform voters on the positives and negatives of leave or stay. It is only after the results that we are starting to see more factual debate that should have taken place beforehand rather than trying to scare the electorate to vote one way or the other.
When push comes to shove the English can be a pretty obdurate bunch so when faced with such an appallingly negative campaign by the ruling party I think many thought enough is enough and voted to give Cameron a bloody nose regardless of the wider picture.
What I personally found troubling in all this was the role the media played. For example an outlet which generally speaking can be considered as even handed, the BBC seemed almost tabloid in nature. Rather than a balanced level of reporting on either side there was a real stoking of emotional arguments when a clear head was needed.
This vote, more than any as far back as I can remember was forged by a rabid media in my opinion.
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What I personally found troubling in all this was the role the media played. For example an outlet which generally speaking can be considered as even handed, the BBC seemed almost tabloid in nature. Rather than a balanced level of reporting on either side there was a real stoking of emotional arguments when a clear head was needed.
This has been really noticeable. It's been really challenging trying to even find even-handed coverage.
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Even the Independent, while claiming to be unbiased. Was not.
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Media, all ball washing bastards.
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Interesting CHART
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In my view the Leave campaign won due to three simple points.
They had a partially aspirational message - "Great Britain can be great again and rule ourselves"
and
"Immigration is bad"
And the Remain campaign had one terrible message of Doom and Gloom if we leave.
The Remain camp were honest the leave camp less so, but the Remain camp needed to address aspiration and immigration. They didn't touch either.
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1.
"Great Britain can be great again and rule ourselves... " and "Immigration is bad"
2.
America should watch this. I could see the same happening if Trump gets in, but "super-sized" .
3. Nothing left to add...
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John Oliver on the Brexit (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ikd7A2VuHs)
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Very funny BUT
It's sad that some MFs get their NEWS from "Late Night" :(
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It is not news, but entertainment mixed with commentary. That said, I don't think it is any worse than many other editorial sources.
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I find him funny.
See England exited the Euro's again.... and Scotland once again done it differently by not bothering to qualify in the first place.
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It may never happen judging by previous voting:
(http://i.imgur.com/woL0MG3.jpg)
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Dont-Answer-Lewis-Baston-Ritchie/dp/1849542074/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1467032342&sr=1-2
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I don't see the UK on there.
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It may do if the book is revised, who knows.
The vote was never legally binding anyway and all depends if the next person in charge has the bottle to go against the majority.
But then the damage is done.... I don't know. It's a bloody mess. England being knocked out of the Euros last night hasn't helped with my head
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last night I was truly embarrassed to be British, listening to Farage in Brussels yesterday.
In Brussels – biff! – Nigel Farage did his bit for diplomacy by telling the European Parliament: ‘Virtually none of you have ever done a proper job in your lives’.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3665082/The-MEPs-clucked-like-barn-free-range-hens-QUENTIN-LETTS-sees-Nigel-Farage-outrage-Brussels.html#ixzz4CylCSZph
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US bank JP Morgan has said it now expects Scotland to vote for independence and introduce its own currency before Britain leaves the European Union in 2019.
JP Morgan economist Malcolm Barr said in a note to clients: "Our base case is that Scotland will vote for independence and institute a new currency at that point (2019)"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36656980?intlink_from_url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36570120
You can take our EU, but you can never take away our neverendum!
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Would the EU take Scotland on its own? I mean, it is not guaranteed, and if they left the UK without being part of the EU they could be in a bad way.
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Highly doubtful by the looks of it.
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As Chunkford noted, like all of the other important EU referendums, won't they just keep holding them until they get the result they wanted? Worked for them with the Lisbon treaty. How many times was that one rejected?
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a6HNXtdvVQ
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Blaming the thick is not right as we are not all thick and racist.
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With you Rich. There was a very good reason for voting out... The Democratic Deficit. I don't blame anyone.
There are many opportunities too. The EU bureaucracy is too big, to invasive and too powerful. Europe is stagnating.
There could be a "Northern Powerhouse" UK, Norway, Sweden, Denmark... with a "EU light". Germany and France want to sell to us... they might talk tough, but they need us.
It is going to be tough, but it might harden people up a bit. I do find the hate sooo sad though, it is so unnecessary.
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A mate of mine has said something interesting today about the EU.
He reckons the reason why the 'EU' wants Turkey to join is because they have the people power to help create this EU army that is being spouted.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel
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I'm still trying to conceive what the Brexit will mean in practice. The UK already has its own currency (seemed like a smart thing to maintain to me). Odds are there will be free trade between the UK and EU nations when all is negotiated. UK products will have to conform to EU standards for products. So, it seems to me that the major issue left is immigration -- which seems like a major issue in most of the wealthier nations in the EU.
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The outcome will likely be the same as we had before, but with no voice on changing anything.
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Sad but True... but perhaps not entirely true.
We will likely be free to make our own deals with others. I am sure they will be other benefits we cannot yet see... like a weaker £ perhaps.
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> We will likely be free to make our own deals with others
Were we ever unable to do deals on our own? I don't believe so, hence why we recently got into bed with China, much to America's chagrin.
>Weaker £GBP
I can see us at parity with the USD by the time we get the leave deal finalised.
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"conform to EU standards"
That, imo is as big an issue as immigration.
But I'm not living in the UK
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So, as some of you opined, you ended up with Theresa May. (By attrition, or so it seemed from here as all the others withdrew.
Last Stupidest man standing?) Now what?
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/brexit-referendum/theresa-may-bloody-difficult-woman-be-u-k-prime-minister-n608001
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I am not a Conservative (big C) in my politics nor thinking but I truly believe, if we put party politics aside, she is the right person for the job, out of the available candidates.
She is a conviction politician who hasn't played the "old boys network" card, mostly because she didn't have one to play. She's arrived to her position through being a great, but not perfect, politician, who works harder than most others.
That isn't to say I agree with all her views as Home Secretary. The RIP Act - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulation_of_Investigatory_Powers_Act_2000 and later versions that sh's still trying to push through are draconian and wrong but...... I believe she is doing so for the betterment of security for the UK, rather than some other reasons or personal goals.
I will say that we're in unprecedented times politically - Leaving the EU, an opposition in disarray, the GBP£ a shadow of it's former self and pretty much no money in the piggy bank.... Hard times indeed with an even tougher job ahead of her.
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She gives a good speach, but there is quite a gap between what she has publicly said lately and her past voting record.
Let's hope that she's had some sort of epiphany and isn't just continuing the recent theme of unashamed dishonesty in British politics. We'll see.
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Well, time to grab some popcorn and pull up a seat.
She named former London mayor and fervent Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson as the new Foreign Secretary.
http://time.com/4405504/boris-johnson-foreign-secretary-theresa-may/
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#popcorn
Interesting times on both sides of da POND
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> fervent Brexit campaigner
...although by all accounts not such a fervent believer in it.
"You made the mess, you clear it up..." springs to mind.
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i haven'#t read the previous psots on this but all i can say (~sorry typos pissed tonight) is that it can't be a good thing to have yet another layer of bureacracy, lies, corruption, We have enough of that in the UK let alone having anotjher layer of bullshit on top.
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Hoo Boy.
"One problem is that the U.K. hasn’t negotiated a trade deal alone since the early 1970s and so lacks officials skilled in doing so."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-25/the-beginners-guide-to-brexit-what-have-we-learned-so-far
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To be fair, one thing the UK has done exceptionally well in recent times and history.... is diplomacy and negotiation, if not negotiation of trade deals.
That part I am not too concerned about
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Just watched a piece on CNN. Some British manufacturers saying that all the hype was overblown and that their business is doing better than before. I'm sure that's not the case everywhere, but it was surprising to see (on CNN). They're usually the sky is falling news channel.
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> Some British manufacturers saying {snip} that their business is doing better than before
If the British business is an export based and the product can be sourced from multiple countries then they should be doing better. The Pound has crashed yet the markets available to buy from us are still the same as before... At the moment, we are still within the EU
So if you were a German company buying 10,000 widgets and had suppliers in Europe (using the EUR) and Britain (using the GBP), suddenly the British seller would be much cheaper than before. For me, that's not a long term thing and can only be short lived, as when we leave that same market won't be available or the GBP will have risen.
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>Some British manufacturers saying that all the hype was overblown and that their business is doing better than before
If they are exporting then sure they will, £ is very very low.
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Most countries dream of a weaker currency.
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UK Labour leadership candidate says will block Brexit talks if no second vote
http://in.reuters.com/article/britain-eu-labour-idINKCN10Z0NM
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We saw this coming.
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Didn't Holland reject some EU treaty once and they made them revote on it repeatedly until people changed their minds? Or was that Denmark?
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That was the Lisbon Treaty. I recall that they made Ireland vote on it several times until it passed. They were the last hold-out I think. The same "reconsideration" vote happened elsewhere too IIRC.
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Lost my second good client due to post Brexit collapse of GBP. Sucks.
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Ouch, sorry Rupert. Any chance of tapping into the US market now that you have a competitive advantage?
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update:
file this under I-told-you-so
Hammond Forecast in Line With Osborne’s ‘Brazen’ Brexit Warnings
Osborne warned in June that there would have to be spending cuts and tax rises to deal with the shortfall.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-23/hammond-forecast-in-line-with-osborne-s-brazen-brexit-warnings
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"Europe Will Devalue Or Dissolve..."
Brexit: Check. Trump: Check. Marine Le Pen: ?
“I think that the elites have lived too long among themselves. We are in a world where globalization, which is an ideology, has forgotten, and put aside the people, the people’s interests, aspirations, and dreams,” National Front party leader and French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen told CNBC following Trump’s election victory.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-29/europe-will-devalue-or-dissolve
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“Remember when we cried as children & our parents said “we’ll give you something to cry about”? – We thought we were getting a smack – instead, instead they destroyed the housing market, quadrupled uni fees, melted the ice caps & voted Brexit.”
http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2017/05/02/sign-outside-bristol-pub-pretty-nose/
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Now that's just funny right there
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> that's just funny
..in a sorta sad & truthful way, hhh.
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>..in a sorta sad & truthful way, hhh.
Yeah. So many slow train wrecks coming.
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The Greatest Generation!
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...but it isn't the WW2 gen making the call anymore. I would argue that they were more rational considering the information they had available at the time. The macro level decisions we are making today are on Boomers and GenXers.
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Ouch!
Britons travelling to Europe offered just 88 euro cents for £1
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/21/britons-travelling-to-europe-offered-just-88-euro-cents-to-the-pound
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Even as a traveler with little know how one should know the airport & corner exchange shop are horrible. It is not uncommon to see a 20% or even 30% spread between some of the fairly common currency pairs. Not sure how many locals use those services though as the post office there offers reasonably tight spreads for fairly small cash exchange.
At £400 their rate is €1.0886. It goes to €1.0914 @ £500 & €1.0931 @ £1,000.
http://www.postoffice.co.uk/foreign-currency
That's around a 20% difference between their rates and those scammy rates offered at airports.
I guess I understand absurd rates if you are cashing in rarely used Turkish Lira or some exotic far away currency, but if someone else is profitable at 20% difference for the same exact thing, that's an atrocious rate.
To put that 20% craziness in perspective, after Brexit vote the currency shift was about 10%.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/23/british-pound-given-boost-by-projected-remain-win-in-eu-referendum
So you'd need a couple more unforeseen and/or heavily bet against black swans like Brexit to make that exchange rate reasonable.
according to Oanda
https://www.oanda.com/currency/converter/
the spot rate for £ to € is €1.11460.
Post Office spread
1.1146-1.0914=0.0232
0.0232/1.1146= 2.08% spread
exchange shop spread
1.1146-0.88=0.2346
0.2346/1.1146=21.04% spread
relative spread
21.04/2.08= charging 10.115X the cost for the exchange service as one can get as a walk off the street service at the post office
even a Travelex card looks like an extreme deal compared to those terrible currency exchange shops.
https://www.travelex.co.uk/currency/about-currency/euros
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reddit comments worth a read;
https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/76p8ui/brexit_is_turning_into_a_disaster_says_vote_leave/
The macro view from my feeds' headlines indicate that the UK politicos in charge of Brexit seem to be getting some sort of reality check. From what we see in the US, my sense of it says it's going to cost a lot more than the initial projections.
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Here's the first evidence Russia used Twitter to influence Brexit
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/brexit-russia-influence-twitter-bots-internet-research-agency
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Investigations by the Sunday Times and the Observer newspapers revealed the Leave campaign’s biggest backer, businessman Aaron Banks, met with Alexander Yakovenko, the Russian ambassador to the U.K., at least three times in the months leading up to the vote to exit the European Union, and even invited him to a Brexit results party in Westminster.
Banks also exchanged emails with the embassy and other Russian officials, including Alexander Udod, a diplomat who was subsequently expelled from the U.K. over the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter.
https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/zm8gz9/trump-russia-aaron-banks-brexit-farage
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Going all pear-shaped.
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>> pear-shaped.
Say more.
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>say more
I was hoping a Brit would jump in. At the time, "pear-shaped" was more of a feeling or intuitive guess I Debbie drew from the large cloud of headlines I she saw running through my her feeds. Looks like I she might have been right, Boris resigned today.
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Pear Shaped.. yes, feels like it....
The problem is, Brussels does not want us to go, so they wont agree to anything we come up with. It will be messy.
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Brexit or no Brexit I wouldn't bet on their being a EU in 10 years.
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The End of the Brexit Illusion
The grand promises of withdrawal from the European Union run aground on the tedious and technical details that campaigners ignored.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/07/the-end-of-the-brexit-illusion/564725/
They have resigned in protest that the plan is not fantastical enough, that it does not rely enough on fairy dust and magic wishes.
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>details that campaigners ignored.
That's how I'm seeing it. Boris Johnson likes sounding like Churchill but totally lacks the cahonas, and TBF has walked away from the problem twice. A coward.
The whole charade feels a bit like England has an identity crisis. Hopefully they win the World Cup and call the whole thing off.
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As time dribbles away, the British government has backed into ever-greater concessions to the European Union point of view—without coming any closer to a finished agreement by the deadline of March 29, 2019.
They apparently have no choice. The EU will not negociate. So whatever we want it is going to be a hard Brexit. imho.
(aside) .
To me the free movement of people from the EU is not an issue, and never should have been. Half the people who voted, voted it seems because of that and that was STUPID. Yet still they are trying to control it in Brexit. If you consider immigration a problem, then the issues are from the rest of the world. And it a big IF.
The only reason to leave, was because the EU is not a democracy (OK what is? ), but at least we can remove our govt. The rules from the EU are too far reaching, sometimes more than the US system of Federal law it seems.
They are self serving leaders, who are corrupt. That why we should have voted out. (rant over)
Hopefully they win the World Cup and call the whole thing off.
;)
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The UK is in the EU with opt-outs.
But the UK wants out of the EU with opt-ins.
Anyone else scratches their head when they try and work that out?
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Brexit is just too wide ranging a subject to have been broached in a simple yes/no referendum (which is technically not legally binding btw). Speak to 10 different people and they will likely give you 10 different reasons why they voted the way they did. It was ridiculous for the referendum to be presented in such a binary and finite way.
Add to the fact that that there seemed to be some dubious claims from the leave camp whilst campaigning which they seemingly won't be held accountable for in any meaningful way and you end up with a subject that nobody fully understands with no clear path forward.
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The UK is in the EU with opt-outs.
But the UK wants out of the EU with opt-ins.
That's the single best argument I've heard to date for Brexit
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I have quoted that line a couple of times too Chuckford :)
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The UK is in the EU with opt-outs.
But the UK wants out of the EU with opt-ins.
So basically the UK wants to grow up to be Switzerland?
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NOW you've done it! Cleese is leaving the UK.
http://www.newser.com/story/261814/why-john-cleese-is-leaving-the-uk.html
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The working class people of the UK voted to exit, now the middle classes are paying to reverse the decision, democracy in action!
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From the flurry of headlines I've seen over the last couple of weeks, it's still shaping up to be a very costly exit with a big dose of PITA over the long term.
-
From here, it looks like May is getting her a## handed to her.
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What a clusterfuck.
UK government steps up no-deal Brexit planning
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/uk-government-steps-deal-brexit-planning-181218142414510.html
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It will go to the wire and the more imho.
Also just So many lies about.
Vince Cable said the other day:
that half British sheep population would be slaughtered if there was no deal.
Just not true. Half of lambs are slaughtered every year, because a lamb becomes mutton when it is 2. So technically yes. But not because of a no deal.
Half of lambs grown are eaten in the UK, the rest are exported. A small number got to the EU. Most dont. Some to New Zealand(We import lamb back too strangely)
and as for Farrage/ Johnson/gove
I think they should be locked up, the lot of them.
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The "no deal" option is May playing chicken with Parliament. i.e. Unless they vote for her deal, that will be the only other option. It's clearly a lie, and hugely irresponsible. It may also be a tactic that works.
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Dark times ahead. The country is massively divided. There needs to be a long term constructive plan in the interest of the majority, but there seems to be little attempt to drive towards this by the extremists.
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Majority? it was practically a 50/50 split. The referendum should have had a threshold, to define a clear majority.
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It was 50/50 on the blunt in/out question, but that has proven to have been too simple a question to provide a mandate for anyone to successfully action anything.
Time to construct a more meaningful framework for deciding WTF happens next.
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The odds for a 2nd referendum in 2019 narrowed to evens a week ago but have drifted a bit.
Seems the permutations favour a remain for the next few years anyways, considering the possibility of a 2nd referendum, vote of no confidence or simply cancelling article 50. There's a real chance the PM's deal will get voted down and then the government crumbles with no real mandate. In that case inevitably the can has to be kicked down the road.
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If article 50 was cancelled (more than likely at the 11th hour IMO), would it all go back to how it was before, or has the UK lost any privileges it had before i.e. veto's
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Exactly as before, no changes on our relationship with the EU
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Has there been any chatter at all about doing another revote now that the population has seen how complicated and messy Brexit is?
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littleman,
From what I've saw, the Government (or at least the leader) feels they are mandated to deliver Brexit in whatever flavour due to the referendum. Opinions still seem quite staunch. Many feel that no further vote is required.
Others argue that because the nature of any potential deal is now known, a referendum makes sense, i.e. how could people have voted for anything other than a hard Brexit without knowing future details.
Parts of the UK unequivocally voted Remain. The English working class seems to be a (continuing) core element of the Leave vote, who've suffered 10 years of austerity and what some see as two fingers to the establishment who recommended Remain. Ironically a lot of the blame is actually London policy rather than Brussels.
Some polls suggest a move to Remain after the realisation of what a mess this is, in fact most seem to indicate a move this way. There definitely seems to be a bit of animosity towards the EU because there isn't a sugar coated deal, or at least the Leave contingent will paint it that way. The main point of contention is what happens on the Northern Ireland/Ireland border which has freedom of movement and goods. A hard Brexit would remove that and put into danger the 'Good Friday' agreement.
But that's the reality of what leaving means. Can't have two separate markets and porous borders. Awkward realities.
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Thanks for the thoughtful response BoL. Has here been much buzz in the UK about outside influences manipulating public opinion on Brexit?
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Yes, it seems clear there's bots/meat bots that'll comment on anything related wrt web chatter, this seems fairly established.
The Leave campaign (pre referendum) has also been condemned for being funded illegally by foreign interests.
In the end, people either get it or they don't. From my perspective, there's a lot of working class folks who feel aggrieved and will rationalise how they feel with anything to substantiate it, rather than the other way around.
Most of the members of parliament are pro-remain which at the moment seems to the counter productive.
IMO it's mostly about the working class and general concerns about immigration changing the make-up of communities. It's more about the realities of globalisation than what the EU concerns itself with. Could be wrong.
Interesting times. Not such a good time to be British.
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I find parts of it hilarious to watch.
There is no easy solution.
It make me howl with laughter when people like Tony Blair pipe up with how we should reverse the vote or pre vote go with remain. These comments from not that liked people seemed to have the opposite effect.
Add to that when Obama told us to vote stay and you will go head to head with the incredible stubbornness of the the British. Even if it’s the right thing someone telling us how to behave will likely have the opposite affect. We are crazily stubborn as a nation.
Add to this a lot of the poorer people who could be most affected by some aspects are already poor. My terminology here but you can get more than f###ed. They don’t have much to lose.
Incredibly devisive vote.
When you look at the wealth of an area and how it voted you can see the strong correlation.
The poor don’t like to have the wealthy tell em what to do. Especially when they don’t trust them.
A bit of a ramble. :-)
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/22/frankie-boyle-review-2018-forget-brexit
Well worth a read, some highlights:
"Let's forget Brexit and enjoy our last Christmas with running water. Brexit has many downsides, but I think it will be nice for the Irish to watch a British famine."
"It is at times like those that we will remember the work of Dominic Raab, who resigned in November, having decided that he could not endorse a deal that he himself had negotiated. Raab didn’t want to be Brexit secretary, but he didn’t have the negotiating skills to decline the job."
"Meanwhile, May tried to attack Jeremy Corbyn’s handling of antisemitism while in the middle of the Windrush scandal, which was like Pol Pot complaining about gender balance in the films of Martin Scorsese."
"Liam Fox manages to be a grotesque moral nihilist and yet, somehow, not even the worst Dr Fox. Like me, he was raised on an Irish Catholic council estate in Scotland. It’s these sliding-doors moments where I have to thank alcoholism for denying me the focus to become a genocidal sociopath."
"You can imagine that this is all quite surreal for the Saudis; they behead people in public, and starve the children of Yemen. The idea that they would be lambasted for killing a fully grown man in private with no witnesses must seem ridiculous; it would be as if I had got into trouble for saying someone looked like a spoon."
"Our government was angry about Khashoggi and sent the Saudis a strongly worded arms invoice."
"Perhaps the saddest part of this whole business is knowing that there are so few British journalists committed enough to get murdered: you could silence most just by breaking the fingers they use to do select all, copy, paste."
"One patriot filmed himself destroying his Nike clothing by cutting off the top couple of inches from his socks. Instead of destroying the clothing, he’s created an additional, free set of Nike sweatbands."
"You have to ask yourself how abusive a relationship has to be if even kneeling in silence is too provocative, how you are valued in a country where even the statement that your life matters ignites furious dissent."
"To consider that, in a world that has pub lunches, wristwatches, golden retrievers, the novels of Donna Tartt, the music of Kendrick Lamar, flumes and The Amazing Spider-Man, there is still a plight where you starve to death, as a child, for no reason."
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Bit of light reading ... a mess.
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Its been a complete sh## show of a year. We've been dancing to Polka music on a run away train.
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Looks like there might be a chance of getting another general election.
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We’ll get what we get. I don’t think a huge amount will change.
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I think it would flip, probably by a 5-10% margin.
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Polls and pundits know sh## :-)
Upon being asked now, I suspect people will lie, as they get verbal abuse.
Saying one thing and voting are different beasts.
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I haven't read any polls or pundits. This comes from Debbie reading my feeds.
>Saying one thing and voting are different beasts.
Absolutely. That's why I ask Debbie first.
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Now what?
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It's somewhat hilarious how sh## it all is.
Perhaps we will get some new politics in the UK as parties may need to split.
This caught my eye yesterday:
https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/1085168367714123776
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"Now What?"
Good question LM
The Pundit Class in the USA seems to think that Labors attempt to get rid of May will fail.
She then will go back to the EU begging for help.
IMFO
This is what happens when a country gives up its sovereignty to globalists in Brussels.
Sovereignty is the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any interference from outside sources or bodies. UK FIRST
I'm in favor of a 'no deal' BREXIT.
Short term PAIN for long term GAIN
Some folk say the UK could use WTO
Many businesses - especially those that rely on just-in-time manufacturing supply chains - have been lobbying hard against it.
Falling back on WTO rules would also mean the imposition of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. I DO NOT LIKE THAT PART
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This is what happens when you leave it to bumbling private school boys (and girls) who sleep on the benches of parliament and go hear, hear now and again.
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Perhaps we will get some new politics in the UK as parties may need to split.
(https://images.findagrave.com/photos250/photos/2002/279/6825901_1033994254.jpg)
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Wonder if the 'filter bubble' has anything to do with this. It seems there's still at least circa ~50% of the population wanting to go ahead with 'it', whatever it turns out to be.
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I posit that the May govt survived because no one else wanted to be placed in charge of this hot mess.
>poll
I've seen one now. It looked reliable, but as Gimp says "who knows?" It showed 53% in favor of staying EU. That's a slim margin and well within the lying poll territory.
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"May govt survived because no one else wanted to be placed in charge of this hot mess."
It just may be that they didn't want a socialist...
ADDED:
A no-deal Brexit would mean anyone planning to drive in EU countries would need an insurance Green Card. [BBC]
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_interference_in_the_2016_Brexit_referendum
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Russian influence? Hog sh##.
We managed to get this all on our own :-)
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hahaha
RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA
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>Hog sh##
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/10/17/russian-iranian-twitter-trolls-sent-10-million-tweets-fake-news/
An army of Russian trolls sent thousands of messages with the hashtag #ReasonsToLeaveEU on the day of Britain's referendum on membership of the EU, according to new data released by Twitter.
On 23 June 2016, the day of the Brexit vote, Russia mobilised an army of trolls, which at one stage included 3,800 accounts. The fake accounts Tweeted out 1,102 posts with the hashtag #ReasonsToLeaveEU.
The Russian-linked accounts Tweeted out the phrase “Brexit” more than 4,400 times during its period of activity, although mostly after the referendum had taken place.
The data from Twitter showed Russian and Iranian internet trolls sent more than 10 million Tweets in an effort to spread disinformation and discord in the West, including a day-long blitz on the day of the Brexit vote.
You could say that it would have happened either way, but there's pretty good evidence that Brexit had a cheerleader in Moscow.
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Brexit has cheerleaders in many countries :o
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Imagine a society where you live under the oppression of some organization controlled by a tiny group of privileged elites. It may be a despotic government, a religious organization or an all-powerful global corporation. This organization controls every aspect of your life. You are told what to think and how to act through propaganda and brainwashing. Individual thoughts and actions in contradiction to what is permitted are not tolerated and are severely punished if discovered by the authorities.
You live in constant fear of stepping 'out of line,' where every co-worker, neighbor or even a beloved family member may be an informer. Your life is one burdened by extreme poverty, where you are given barely enough resources to survive. But you must be ever ready to give your all, including your very life, to the powers that be. And perhaps worse of all, imagine that there is absolutely no hope of change. This is but one of many visions of a dystopian society.
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Brexit: Labour to back ‘public vote’ in parliament - The Scotsman
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/brexit-labour-to-back-public-vote-in-parliament-1-4879119
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I'm very curious how the general population would vote on Brexit now that all this has unfolded.
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Not sure if any this side of the pond could be bothered. Enthusiasm for anything has been killed by 1000 cuts.
I voted say in, and now feel I would vote out just to be bloody minded. I am past caring.
The politicians all lie so none can make subjective decisions, so most will vote in their entrenched positions. London "in" the North out. The north will probably vote out stronger than before if anything imho. There is no downside for them. Same with the old... still out... there are perhaps a few less oldies if it were run again.
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I will never understand why they immediately after the referendum, without any kind of plan, triggered article 50. Job’s done – let’s go the pub.
They could have used the past two years to form some sort of plan before triggering article 50.
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By blocking the no-deal brexit, didn't the MPs just kill all the routes to leave the EU?
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Something to do with not law. We had a legal case that made it law. A woman took the Gov to court and made it law. So the act of her trying to sabotage brexit meant it was set in law. Now it is the default.
It's all quite hilarious how sh## it all it.
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BBC has come up with flow charts.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46393399
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Arena do some great socials
https://twitter.com/arenaflowers/status/1105870676068573184?s=21
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Hehe
https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1105852018575450117?s=21
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On the night of the Brexit referendum the British pound went into free fall, but while many watched with horror, a handful of hedge funds were making staggering profits. This is the story of the Brexit Big Short.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ht40yrt3VrY
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ht40yrt3VrY
It wouldn't surprise me if Farage was keeping the mirage going for 30 minutes longer to cash in on the idea Remain had won. I was watching the coverage on the night of the vote, and soon after seats in the North East that were considered staunch Remain were close to 50/50, the pound dropped 10 cents. The writing was on the wall fairly early on.
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There's an active petition to government that's got 800K signatures to revoke article 50. Their website has crashed several times today (showing a 502 ATM). I managed to sign it but never got the confirmation email to validate the signature.
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Noticed the petition first thing this morning and its been 502ing for the last 5 hours or so. If they pull their fingers out in the IT dept this thing could really fly...
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Petition to revoke article 50 exceeds 1m signatures amid site crashes | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/21/petitions-site-crashes-after-thousands-back-call-to-revoke-article-50
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Looks like the backlog has been cleared, up to 2 million now
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3 million
Lord Adonis 'to start process to revoke Article 50' as petition hits 2,500,000 signatures | Metro News
https://metro.co.uk/2019/03/22/lord-adonis-start-process-revoke-article-50-petition-hits-2500000-signatures-8979602/
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Lots of bots?
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The spread of voting looks quite similar to how voting turned out in the referendum
https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=229963
https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=241584
Scotland bucks the trend a bit. I think some nationalists see the Brexit mess as a route to independence, even though Scotland voted most to Remain.
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Are bots gaming the 'Cancel Brexit' petition? (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-47668946)
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Lots of bots?
Lots of people simply pissed off with the process, and the petition has gone viral - tis all. We all signed it after it was first reported on the BBC news, when it was still under 1m. It's almost 4m now
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https://youtu.be/-IL2XwSkFJQ
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https://youtu.be/-IL2XwSkFJQ
A brilliant purple patch. Thanks for posting that. I know my biggest question is "What have they been doing for the last 2 years?" it seems like nobody in the UK is actually planning for what to do when the day comes.
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Massive anti-Brexit march unfolds in London, with protesters demanding new referendum - The Globe and Mail
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-massive-anti-brexit-march-unfolds-in-london-with-protesters-demanding/
<update>
"On one of the biggest demonstrations in British history, a crowd estimated at over one million people yesterday marched peacefully through central London to demand that MPs grant them a fresh referendum on Brexit.
...just three days after the prime minister said in a televised statement to the nation that she believed the British people did not support another referendum, and blamed MPs for trying to block their will."
One million join march against Brexit as Tories plan to oust May | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/23/one-million-march-against-brexit-tories-plan-oust-may
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5 million (over 18 hrs ago)
Petition to revoke Article 50 passes five million signatures | BT
http://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/petition-to-revoke-article-50-passes-five-million-signatures-11364348415361
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WHAT’S NEXT: In light of the Letwin amendment passing, on Wednesday 27th March, MPs will vote on a series of options to establish what could command a majority in parliament. The result of any such indicative votes would not be binding on the government as it goes against the Tory manifesto. There is no official list of options, although one has been generated by the Commons select committee for exiting the EU.
1. PM MAY’S DEAL: The deal has been rejected twice already by parliament but remains the only deal the EU can quickly ratify and therefore remains an option. If voted on, it will attract support from May loyalists, but DUP and ERG remain opposed.
2. NO DEAL BREXIT: This would lead to the UK leaving the EU on the new revised date of April 12th on WTO terms. HoC have twice voted against this option, albeit by only four votes last time.
3. ELIMINATING A BACKSTOP: This, in theory would mean re-writing the Withdrawal Agreement, something the EU repeatedly dismissed. A variant would be to promote "alternative arrangements" i.e., technology to monitor the flow of good that could replace the backstop. The EU have previously agreed to examine this, although implementation could take years.
4. CANADA-STYLE DEAL: A popular idea with hardcore Brexiteers, this would focus on the future trade deal with the EU rather than the Withdrawal Agreement. In theory, the UK would accept no continuing regulatory alignment with the EU, although is unclear how far the EU is willing to negotiate this. However, this would not solve the impasse regarding the Northern Irish border, nor has there been signs of many Labour are willing to support this.
5. NORWAY-PLUS DEAL: This soft-Brexit alternative would keep the UK in the single market by remaining in the European Economic Area (EEA) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). Unlike EFTA, the deal would also keep the UK in the customs union (hence the plus). The deal has been promoted by a group of Tory backbenchers, Labour leader Corbyn has also shown some interest and some believe it would be the most popular option given a free vote. The Sun reported last night that over 100 are ready to back this deal after PM May's deal is killed off.
6. LABOUR DEAL: This would mean the UK remains in a customs union with the EU and remain close to the single market. European Council President Tusk has previously deemed this as “promising”, although the plan was rejected by parliament. The Labour deal is unlikely to attract support of the Conservatives.
7. SECOND REFERENDUM: A replay of the 2016 referendum would be a separate option although nobody in parliament is seriously calling for that. However, a referendum could be attached to one of the options above. When a second referendum was put on PM May’s deal before the HoC this month, only 85 MPs voted for it after labour ordered its MPs to abstain.
[zerohedge.com]
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We'll get what these monkeys decide.
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https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/1110570754280734720?s=20
So far today, the EU has:
- Passed #Article13, banning sharing of memes, screenshots, gifs, videos and music
- Voted to put a time zone on the Irish border from 2022
- Voted to put mandatory speed limiters and data loggers on all new cars
Can't imagine why people voted leave
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>Can't imagine why people voted leave
Don't worry, UK won't be alone for long. The EU just has to keep this sort of dumbness up and other states will be looking to leave too.
This could end up being the EU's equivalent of Prohibition only without the booze, flappers and tommy guns.
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Getting rid of daylight saving time is a great idea. :)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5q77MQzU2Q
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THIS
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At least Scotland, NI and to an extent Wales have had delegated powers, as well as major English cities. Those are the core of the remain votes.
If Westminster bribed England outside the South East with 10's of billions of investment I'd bet they couldn't care less about Brexit.
Part of me wanted the vote to pass today just to get this pathetic mess out the way.
For me, it's basically England having a personality crisis, and blaming the EU for life's current problems. I don't think those problems will go away, meanwhile we'll have 10 years of unwrangling this Brexit mess (as the UK).
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Meanwhile in the rest of the EU: “We don’t care if you are staying or leaving - just tell us what you want!”
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>Part of me wanted the vote to pass today just to get this pathetic mess out the way.
Me too! Put a damn form up and I'll vote! Hell, we'll ALL vote.
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>Me too! Put a damn form up and I'll vote! Hell, we'll ALL vote.
:)
I'm working on a news app with Mojeek, I'm using 'Brexit' as an example term for clustering of similar news results. Familiarity breeds contempt as it goes...
When my daughter is old enough and Mrs loses the charm of Scotland, think I'll push them to get back to Canada.
Apart from family, coming to the UK for me was good for schooling and the society of the UK. This Brexit mess has been very ugly and for me as really tarnished the UK's better qualities.
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For me, it's basically England having a personality crisis, and blaming the EU for life's current problems.
This, so much Like.
The problem is, England has fecked off the other countries in the union so much that you can be guaranteed that within a couple of years Scotland will have voted for independence with Wales closely following, and the inevitable referendum in Northern Ireland will have them vote to unify with Eire. These things are going to come to pass.
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Maybe some good politics will come of this. The current lot are useless, all of them. They always were to be honest.
I saw today that one Conservative has been voted not confident due to his pushing for second vote.
It's plain to see the public are getting pissed off.
Interesting, but tiresome times.
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Politicians, all self serving wankers if you ask me.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6801409/Disgraced-ex-Labour-MP-Fiona-Onasanya-votes-against-Brexit-wearing-electronic-ankle-tag.html
How is she still an MP and voting?
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it's basically England having a personality crisis
Apologies, just to qualify, it's the Conservative Party having an identity crisis, and trying to drag the rest of the country over a cliff with them.
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Apologies, just to qualify, it's the Conservative Party having an identity crisis, and trying to drag the rest of the country over a cliff with them.
For sure, but what about the working class outside the South East... there's definitely some solid pro-Brexit opinion outside normal Tory places.
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6 million
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I'm genuinely curious what the fake numbers on that would be or dupes.
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"However, over the weekend, May was quickly confronted with warnings that the Tory party is in no way ready for an election, in terms of money, organisation, the backing of her own MPs or support in the country.
In no uncertain terms, the prime minister has been told by senior Conservative party figures that it would risk 'annihilation' and Jeremy Corbyn being installed in No 10."
'Desperate mood' in No 10 as insiders pondered snap election
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/01/desperate-mood-in-no-10-as-insiders-considered-snap-election
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Labour would probable get a fight kicking too.
Then possibly some UKIP type might do really well.
She was stupid calling the last GE
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Most of the oldies I meet at present have no idea who they would vote for. Serious dislike for both.
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>Serious dislike for both.
Welcome to my world.
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Oldies don't matter Rupert. That's what I'm told. They have stolen the young's future.
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They have stolen the young's future.
Well... we have. It's unconscionable how my generation and the generation before me have spent the resources of the generations after us. Whether we're talking government debt or environmental degradation, they have a right to be mad, even to sue us for reparations as they are starting to do in the US.
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There are fewer of them, but those left still vote.
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Brexit could ‘slip through our fingers’ unless deal agreed with Labour , warns Theresa May | HeraldScotland
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17556326.brexit-could-slip-through-our-fingers-unless-deal-agreed-with-labour-warn-s-theresa-may/
From here, it appears that Labour has blocked all the exits from the EU.
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I think the EU decide now. It’s pretty much that way as I see it?
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The constitutional upheaval caused by membership of what is now the EU was the greatest in the country’s history since the Glorious Revolution of 1688. For almost 300 years, the “old constitution” was self-contained and largely immune to outside influences.
[telegraph]
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One River's Eric Peters asked if Brtiain held another referendum, which way it’d go? “We’re split in two mate, we’re absolutely shattered.”
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Nexxxt!
Theresa May to Resign as U.K. Prime Minister
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/theresa-may-to-resign-as-u-k-prime-minister.html
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UK car volumes fell 45% after factories shut for Brexit - Business Insider
https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-car-production-falls-45-factories-shut-for-brexit-2019-5
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I’m totally lost as to where Brexit stands and what happens next or when.
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>lost
Same.
From here, it looks like there will not be a 2nd public referendum. It also looks like it's going to be a 'hard' Brexit.
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I agree rc
Leave means Leave
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You have Farage that came out of retirement to try and force Brexit through. If it happens, he'll retire again.
Seems most parliamentarians are against a no-deal Brexit
No one has a roadmap for what they intend to do post-Brexit. It's fine getting trade deals but they'll take time, the short-term risk is high. The main trade deal is obviously with the EU who tend to take a long time.
Whoever the Government get as their new leader, they're doing to be dealt the same hand. No majority for no deal, May's deal is dead, the EU aren't going to renegogotiate and as much as there's ~half the country wanting to cancel it all, there's a lot of animosity for holding another referendum... and that referendum as it stands would seem to be remain versus no deal.
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Is Anybody in the UK (ie. business, government, industry, finance, common people) actively making plans for what they will do in the event of different Brexit scenarios?
All the news I'm seeing for years now is either: A. a parade of horribles in the event of Brexit, B. vague tap-dancing around solutions and political drama, but I don't see anyone that has hard answers. It's all process over getting things done. At least that is what it looks like to me. Anyone have a clue?
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Here is just ONE suggestion
https://www.conservatives.com/brexitplan
2) taking back control of our borders
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Here is just ONE suggestion
https://www.conservatives.com/brexitplan
2) taking back control of our borders
I'm thinking a little bit more post-Brexit.
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#2 & #6 are contradictions on that list.
Here's my outsider's prediction; Britain will be "leaving" the EU for the next hundred years, or it may just die on the vein. The Northern Ireland problem can't be fixed. It would likely make a Scottish problem (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-scotland-poll/brexit-drives-support-for-scottish-independence-to-49-percent-yougov-idUSKCN1S30CG) as well.
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Predictions re: Boris Johnson & Brexit?
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We will know SHORTLY
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It's an interesting watch.
What people seem to be missing is the law is set. Needs to be revoked or updated to get something else.
The unwillingness of the EU to talk is the bit that pisses a lot off.
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Feels just like the US.
Conservative MP Phillip Lee has defected to the Liberal Democrats and the Government no longer has a majority
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/conservative-mp-phillip-lee-defected-16859889
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I was going to say, I reaally don't think you guys want to keep trying to one-up us on this chitshow.
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I reaally don't think you guys want to keep trying to one-up us
We're #1! We're #1
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Law to stop no-deal Brexit passed by Parliament (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-bill-vote-house-lords-boris-johnson-law-parliament-latest-a9094741.html)
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Firms have 'no idea what's going on'
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49605461?intlink_from_url=&
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This is long and a bit tedious, but interesting:
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/09/02/proponents-of-the-new-bill-to-stop-no-deal-face-a-significant-dilemma-over-queens-consent/
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in a few years you'll just be thinking 'why did i give a f###?'
maastrchit treaty, EU, bla bla, society absorbs it all and rolls with the punches.
As the famous Glaswegian philosopher Scotrates used to say "Nay bother Pal" :)
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NOW the question is: What will she do?
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Just come back from a bike tour taking in the WW1 and 2 memorials.
The big takeaway... What do we think we are doing???
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Swings in odds on partys winning a general election since Jan:
https://www.oddschecker.com/insight/politics/20190903-who-would-win-if-a-general-election-were-held-now
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Ironically it seems half the reason the Tories would win most seats is purely because so many people don't trust Jeremy Corbyn on the other side. It doesn't paint the full picture though, as Labour + Libs/SNP could form the majority, but it seems like the thought of the SNP being the swaying factor is a huge negative factor in England for Lib/Lab, if it's given enough airtime.
Could do with an independent Scotland now. Take a slice of London's wealth as the UK capital and let you lot deal with your personality crisis in your own way ;o)
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Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage offered Prime Minister Boris Johnson an election pact on Wednesday but warned that unless there was a clean-break Brexit, the Conservatives would take a "real kicking" in any election and could not win a majority.
Johnson, who has lost his working majority in the House of Commons, wants to hold an election but parliament has ordered him to ask the EU to delay Brexit until 2020 unless he can strike a transition deal at an EU summit on Oct. 17-18.
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>Could do with an independent Scotland now.
Should have a referendum, should be the whole of the UK too. Be a landslide ;)
>Take a slice of London's wealth
Er no.
Thought this was interesting, via reddit, sorry about the image.
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>Should have a referendum, should be the whole of the UK too. Be a landslide ;)
It'd be much easier if England seceded, don't think you lot are too bothered about NI/Wales either :)
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1171726506772631553
Messy.
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Boris Johnson has told government officials to explore the possibility of building a bridge between Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Documents seen by Channel 4 News reveal that both the Treasury and Department for Transport have been asked for advice on the costs and risks of such a project.
https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-johnson-considering-building-bridge-between-scotland-and-northern-ireland
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Johnson denies lying to Queen over Parliament suspension - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49674516
Politicians lie, but I suspect you'd better not lie to QE.
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Boris Johnson told to resign following Supreme Court defeat and become the 'shortest-serving prime minister ever' (https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-told-resign-as-prime-minister-supreme-court-verdict-2019-9)
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"Dear Customer,
We are writing to inform you that, due to the possibility of the UK leaving the EU and incorporating an amended version of the GDPR into UK law, we will be updating:"
Ok if we have to go through this sh## again due to exit, can I have a say?
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https://www.wired.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-model-google-news
https://twitter.com/TheAndyMaturin/status/1178303707357892608
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As for the EU's 2021-2027 budget, Brussels hopes it will be approved in March, but Johnson could veto it with the stroke of a pen if the UK is still in the EU come March.
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This caught my eye
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Good THAT is over
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Over? not yet... the fun now begins, but at least we have a govt that can get on and do it.
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Change is good, i didn't vote, the local council letter arrived 2 days ago saying i needed to provide photo IDs to be on the electoral register since i'd changed address and there wasn't time.
I'm ambivalent about brexit, the long view is the only view and in that view this is just a process and mutation is good for processes, the change will have unforseen benefits, winners and losers as always. But it's a good injection of chaos for the system in the long run.
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>But it's a good injection of chaos for the system in the long run.
Exactly how I felt about the 2016 election here, though it's hard to stomach while it is happening. I may quote you on that one.
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Britain speeds towards Brexit as Johnson wins large majority in election - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-exit-poll/uk-heads-towards-brexit-as-johnson-on-course-for-decisive-win-idUSKBN1YG2NZ
So, the question now is whether it'll be soft or hard landing?
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Short term stability but remains to be seen what the future trading arrangement will be with EU.
Northern Ireland elected more nationalist than unionist MPs for the first time (they voted to remain). The Brexit deal would seem to have a 'border in the Irish sea'.
Scotland won't vote for independence, there's too many cards held in London that they won't show. Part of the outrage of being in a union apparently.
Would be preferable for ENG/WAL to secede and vote for the Monster Raving Loony Party and proceed with their direction ;o)
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Scotland won't vote for independence, there's too many cards held in London that they won't show.
Interesting... I am assuming she will ask for a referendum at the very least. Boris will say "later".
But what makes you sure the "Won't vote". What cards? ... Intrigued :)
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>I am assuming she will ask for a referendum at the very least.
Think so. From what I gather, she would rather wait but her grass roots are applying pressure to make it happen ASAP.
I'm in one of those Scottish seats that voted in a Tory, the population is generally older here. A lot of the SNP vote is actually just a counterweight to a more South-centric Tory vote IMO. We shunted Labour and now the traditional Labour seats in England are following. From a personal standpoint, doesn't make much difference to me who is in power at Westminster, my house is pretty much paid for and I'm low maintenance, I'll survive whoever gets in. On an ideal level, I think Scots are thinking/choosing differently enough to choose a different direction. Nothing against the UK or GB whatsoever either.
>What cards
We're in a union of equals. Back in the day the population proportion was more like 1 SCO/4 ENG, nowadays 1/10. Even so, it's a union.
In the 2014 referendum Westminster took the stance that Scotland would take a share of the UK national debt and 0% of assets. That's about as far as the scope of independence was taken from their standpoint. Makes for massive uncertainty about a 'yes' vote when 'our' share of the UK is worth precisely nil, according to London. It's just a bit perverse that the union parliament unilaterally decides those things against a portion of its union, isn't it.
As the SNP mantra goes, Scotland is being forced out of the EU against its will, considering our Yes vote in the EU referendum. The SNP mandate in this general election 'kind of' says the same.
Personally I think the SNP should do groundwork on what kind of withdrawal method an independent Scotland would take, get it in writing, but as it stands a new referendum would just be a repeat of the 2014 version, only difference in scenario being the choice the UK made in the EU ref.
The thing in Scotland is how you identify. If you're British, it's simply a UK-wide result and we respect it. If you identify as Scottish, you see that the SNP won the election up here overwhelmingly and it's at odds with the rest of the UK. Seems to me most election maps the past 10 years show the latter.
I blame this general mess on neglect of the English regions outside the South East anyways. Pretty sure the Geordies would like to come up our way :)
If Brexit proves a mess and London's financial sector loses its global shine, who knows, maybe indy would happen. For me, there's too many barriers in the way, psychologically up here as well as resistance from the folks in London.
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You do all know that if you lived your ilfe not thinking about brexit, your life would be the same, just filled with les pointless chatter ;+}
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>You do all know that if you lived your ilfe not thinking about brexit, your life would be the same, just filled with les pointless chatter ;+}
Do you think someone in Yugoslavia said something similar in 1989?
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>les pointless chatter
Just a sassenanch anyways, until you make the news ;o)
But TBF having David Gilmour make a song about you, it's all gravy.
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>You do all know that if you lived your ilfe not thinking about brexit, your life would be the same, just filled with les pointless chatter ;+}
Do you think someone in Yugoslavia said something similar in 1989?
Someone said everything sometime, my point is is that the peaks and troughs will settle, it's all still vanilla-flavoured but now we have a healthy dose of Pecans. We're all number-crunchers here, we know how the graphs look, whatever they denote and whichever totem we're tying to them. The system survives, business goes on, adapts, changes.
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>we know how the graphs look, whatever they denote and whichever totem we're tying to them. The system survives, business goes on, adapts, changes.
You must mean staying in the EU then. cos it doesn't make much sense throwing a huge economic union with our nearest neighbours without something better to replace it. :o)
But I guess you were being agnostic. Makes me wonder about the wealth of London and how it ends up there.
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The wealth of London is quite the story, it's good not to live there anymore, toxic city like many of the bigguns :/
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>we know how the graphs look, whatever they denote and whichever totem we're tying to them. The system survives, business goes on, adapts, changes.
You must mean staying in the EU then. cos it doesn't make much sense throwing a huge economic union with our nearest neighbours without something better to replace it. :o)
But I guess you were being agnostic. Makes me wonder about the wealth of London and how it ends up there.
(in my best robot voice) It's interesting to watch your extrapolation of self, you make much of what wasn't said.
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Think in the end London would like to sling the rest of us out the way and they'd do just fine.
No worries sassenach. I say to people up here all the time, you identify as British it's all good, nothing to be ashamed of.
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Think in the end London would like to sling the rest of us out the way and they'd do just fine.
No worries sassenach. I say to people up here all the time, you identify as British it's all good, nothing to be ashamed of.
Again you're assuming, it's educational to watch pal :)
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edited, alcohol, not worth it :)
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Another opinion:
8 Takeaways From The UK Election Result
(1) Brexit is done. The UK will withdraw from the EU under the terms of Boris Johnson’s Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Although the larger question of the future trading arrangement will remain, Boris can tout formal delivery of his promise for the UK to leave the EU.
(2) Extension of transition period. Of course, within the Withdrawal Agreement is a transition period for the UK to remain in the Single Market until the end of 2020. During this time, a new trading arrangement must be negotiated, but this will be extremely difficult within the deadline. Therefore, the UK will probably ask for an extension of the transition period in the first half of 2020. The fact that the UK will have already exited the EU combined with the size of Boris’ majority should reduce the risk of any hard Brexit factions within the Conservative party from derailing this process.
(3) The UK has leverage over the EU. For the past three years, a disunited UK government has been met by a united EU. Now, the roles will be reversed. The UK has a strong majority government – effectively first in ten years – while the EU’s division on how to approach the UK will be exposed. A critical one will be the EU’s security arrangement.
France’s Macron recently wanted to demote the importance of NATO and create a stronger European military power, while Germany’s Merkel continues to cite its importance. The UK is the other big military power within Europe along with France, and so could be pivotal in any future arrangement. Put another way: look at EU member Estonia. It shares a border with Russia and relies on NATO protection. How would it vote in any UK Brexit deal? Would it care more about the UK’s role in NATO or customs checks on the Irish border with the UK?
Aside from security concerns, every EU member will have to consider its economic relationships with the UK.
(4) The UK will avoid hard Brexit. While no deal will be as good as staying in the EU, the likely deal will be in the ‘soft Brexit’ category. This should remove the worst of the potential ‘hard Brexit’ consequences such as punitive tariffs and regulatory barriers with the EU and soften the transition. With the North and the Midlands forming important new power bases for the Conservatives, delivering a positive outcome for the industrial sector – notably the auto sector – will be critical for the Conservatives.
(5) Austerity is over. First, there has been a global shift away from austerity whether in the US or even IMF recommendations. Second, the Conservative manifesto has promised more public spending and typically the Conservatives overshoot manifesto promises. Third, given the new geographical gains, the Conservatives will likely focus on poverty alleviation. This means austerity is out, and fiscal stimulus is in. This should also provide another cushion during any transition period.
(6) Taxes have to rise somewhere. With a probable ambitious public spending programme, tax revenues will have to increase. Growth alone is probably insufficient. At the same time, the Conservatives have promised not to raise income taxes or VAT. So we may see other forms of taxes increasing – perhaps the most likely would be property. The current system of property taxes not being as tied to property values as in other countries would be an obvious reform. Effectively, this would be a wealth tax – another new idea that has garnered interest in policy circles. Whatever the specifics, though, taxes will have to rise somewhere.
(7) Scottish risks. The other big winner was the Scottish National Party (SNP) – they almost had a clean sweep in Scotland. This will likely bring to the fore calls for a Scottish independence vote. While the UK parliament will probably deny one, the SNP could institute an informal vote. This provides some political uncertainty in the years to come, though the economic impact on the UK at large would be limited.
(8) Labour party still at risk post-Corbyn. In 1983, Labour leader Michael Foot suffered one of the party’s worst defeats. Back then, it struggled to recover for over a decade. Foot had laid out a hard left economic agenda as well as, ironically, a Brexit position – at the time both were seen by the electorate as too radical. Corbyn has now surpassed Foot’s failure. Will Labour’s internal dynamics see this as a problem with Corbyn or a problem with their policy platform? If they view it solely as the former, replacing him but keeping the same policy platform, the Labour party could risk years in the wilderness.
[zerohedge]
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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/13/world/europe/scotland-northern-ireland-secession.html
In Scotland a constitutional crisis looms after the dominant Scottish National Party made significant gains, winning 48 of 59 seats, and said it would press its demands for a second independence referendum — something that Mr. Johnson has already rejected.
The background in Northern Ireland is more complicated. But for the first time in its history, the territory elected more nationalist members of Parliament, who support reunification with the Republican of Ireland, than unionists, who wish to remain a part of the United Kingdom.
Though the situations are quite different in Scotland and Northern Ireland, the common thread is Brexit, a project supported by English and Welsh voters but opposed by majorities in Scotland and Northern Ireland in the 2016 Brexit referendum.
“Brexit has completely transformed the debate in Northern Ireland,” said Daniel Keohane, an Irish political analyst. “Before Brexit, no one seriously thought a united Ireland would happen anytime soon. Now it’s a very real prospect based on these results.”
From this outsider's perspective this all seems insane considering the history of the UK. In the course of 150 years you've went from "the sun never sets" to potentially being England and maybe Wales (looks like there is a Welsh independence movement growing).
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All done and dusted in a few days, happening just a case of how the separation happens.
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Scottish parliament votes to hold new independence referendum (https://www.euronews.com/2020/01/29/scottish-parliament-votes-to-hold-new-independence-referendum)
Scotland’s pro-independence government says Brexit changes everything. Britain as a whole voted narrowly in 2016 to leave the EU, but voters in Scotland opted by a large margin to remain.
The UK’s long-delayed exit from the EU is due to take place Friday.
"We stand just two days from losing our EU membership and all of the rights that go with it,” said Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.
"In my view, it is beyond doubt now that the only realistic way for Scotland to return to the heart of Europe and to ensure we get the governments we vote for is to become an independent country,” Sturgeon said.
Scottish lawmakers also voted to keep the European Union flag flying outside the Scottish Parliament after Brexit.
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U.K.’s Johnson Says Get Ready for No Trade Deal After Brexit
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-10/u-k-s-johnson-says-prepare-for-no-eu-trade-deal-after-brexit-kij5fh2a
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So, UK got Brexit ....and lots & lots of paperwork. My feeds have had several articles all along the same lines. The TLDR is that a great many of these businesses had never experienced customs requirements while accessing their major EU markets.
UK seafood trucks protest at Parliament over Brexit red tape
https://apnews.com/article/brexit-europe-london-boris-johnson-556ba6c9d8aa238ebb43428819fb807b
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A client just asked me to disable checkout for anyone with a UK shipping address because it has become too complicated to deal with given the number of UK sales he gets. Basically, they need to have goods shipped to a friend in some other country and then shipped to the UK if they want to buy his wares.
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>disable checkout for anyone with a UK shipping address because it has become too complicated to deal
I saw stories of ebay vendors canceling UK orders because they were being required to file so much paperwork.
Also here:
UK is now asking overseas firms to apply and collect British taxes
http://th3core.com/talk/marketing/uk-is-now-asking-overseas-firms-to-apply-and-collect-british-taxes/msg71205/#msg71205
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https://old.reddit.com/r/LeopardsAteMyFace/comments/mq6lfp/not_what_i_voted_for/
https://old.reddit.com/r/LeopardsAteMyFace/comments/msxx3s/whod_have_thought_brexit_would_mean_less_trade/
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>ebay
Ebay has some side business where they handle all the customs & VAT for sales from the US to the UK. I've had a couple of orders this way in recent months. We ship to some warehouse in Florida and then they pass it on. Seems to be a smart move for eBay to make the most out of the mess.
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Independent Scotland would apply to rejoin European Union - Sturgeon (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-63260224)
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British PM Truss totters as Conservatives meet this week on possible ouster
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Thousands of protesters march in central London to call for UK to rejoin the EU
https://inews.co.uk/news/thousands-of-protesters-attend-rally-in-central-london-calling-for-the-uk-to-rejoin-the-eu-1928436
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Brits: Do you see this happening?
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Not at the moment, too much else going on.
I do think if there was another referendum, the vote would swing to rejoin though. Generally more people feel they were sold a pup who voted for out, and now regret it, than the other way. Any the remainers are all still remainers.
Bloody Boris and Cameron!!! Boris seems to have many strong attributes, but such a train wreck at times.
we have stopped selling suits to the EU. Paperwork costs more than the value of the business, and then if they want to send it back.... ahhhh. painful. Bureaucrats in the way. Welsh mussel farms closed down.... a cheese company I know stopped exporting.
A Disaster! I would welcome another vote.
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And what if the EU doesn't want fickle in again out again countries back in the Union?
I guess as always, it's a negotiation. But it seems like Brexit puts the UK in a weak bargaining position for Bre-entry.
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And what if the EU doesn't want fickle in again out again countries back in the Union?
I guess as always, it's a negotiation. But it seems like Brexit puts the UK in a weak bargaining position for Bre-entry.
Yes.. no love lost, but we were a net contributor, unlike most other countries, so that has sway.
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Britain wants an election. It’s not getting one – POLITICO
https://www.politico.eu/article/rishi-sunak-liz-truss-boris-johnson-britain-wants-an-election-but-frightened-tories-wont-give-it-one/
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Brexit: Rejoining EU takes record 14-point lead in latest poll | The Independent
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-poll-b2212730.html
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https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-poll/
Both major Westminster parties have committed to not rejoining... can't see it happening this decade.
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Piers Morgan says it's 'time to admit Brexit has been a disaster' and calls for second referendum (https://www.joe.co.uk/amp/news/piers-morgan-brexit-367723)
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Knives coming out...
Brexit added £210 to household food bills, new research finds | Sky News
https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-added-210-to-household-food-bills-new-research-finds-12759188
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Virgin boss Sir Richard Branson says he would not invest 'new money' in Britain blaming Brexit
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/richard-branson-wouldnt-invest-new-money-britain-brexit-red-tape/
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Government won’t publish estimate of economic benefits of latest Brexit trade deal | The Independent
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-benefits-israel-b2245807.html
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<warp>
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/30/britons-brexit-bad-uk-poll-eu-finances-nhs
Brexit has completely failed for UK, say clear majority of Britons – poll | Brexit | The Guardian
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After the referendum some Danish parties wanted to leave the EU. Now the most EU sceptical parties just wants more conrol the EU more control and independency. Lessons learned
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Honestly, IMO this was the most ill-conceived move the United Kingdom has done in a long time, it's almost an American style self-inflicted wound. I don't think the hammers of Northern Ireland and Scotland have fully fallen yet.