Author Topic: Unlimited QE3 just announced...  (Read 9975 times)

dogboy

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Re: Unlimited QE3 just announced...
« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2012, 04:31:43 PM »
I took 3 years of statistics while I was at Boston University and maintained an A-, so forgive me if I'm not interested in reading any more textbooks... especially when it would be so much more pleasing to have you go back through the daily financial charts to show me the last time you saw a $1.50 spike in silver, or $20 spike due to trading activity in a 10 minute span of time.

But I wont be so cruel - the answer is the day they announced QE3.  How utterly unremarkable.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2012, 04:33:44 PM by dogboy »

buckworks

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Re: Unlimited QE3 just announced...
« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2012, 05:05:44 PM »
Yes, it's utterly unremarkable that people follow the herd.

Silver has been higher before, and it's certain to go higher again. The people who will make the most money when it does will be those who make their investment decisions before the herd arrives.

Side comment: if you took three years of statistics and never came across "How to Lie with Statistics" then my respect for Boston University would drop a few notches.

That book is a valuable tool for sifting through the rampant innumeracy which is such a problem in public discourse these days.

dogboy

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Re: Unlimited QE3 just announced...
« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2012, 06:45:23 PM »
First, allow me to apologize. I didn't know we were talking about the great Darrell Huff - the Albert Einstein of modern day statistics.  

Second, I deeply regret that kitco publishing their 3 day chart, in a manner common in the industry, offends your lack of decency.  I think you should write them.

Before you do, however, make sure to use the live version, as a reference to the claim they are lying to the entire industry that uses their charts:
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
...that should help you pin down the offending material. If that isn't enough you can do a search for other sites that are republishing these financial charts starting with these 16000:
http://www.google.com/search?q=%22www.kitco.com%2Fimages%2Flive%2Fsilver.gif%22&oq=%22www.kitco.com%2Fimages%2Flive%2Fsilver.gif%22&sugexp=chrome,mod=9&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Third, if you get done with step 2 - whatever you do - DO NOT CLICK ON THE GRAPH.  I can't even imagine what you would think of a graph like that, with all of it's little sliders all over it, allowing you to compare two points over time, etc.

....or forth, maybe you can show me what page of the book, the illustrious Darrell Huff explains the last time he saw a $1.50 spike up in silver, or $20 spike in gold, due to trading activity in a 10 minute span of time. On any chart. Or any table. Anywhere.

Statistics don't lie.  Statisticians lie.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2012, 06:47:31 PM by dogboy »

dogboy

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Re: Unlimited QE3 just announced...
« Reply #18 on: October 01, 2012, 06:58:32 PM »
An oldie, but a goodie...





How about this one:

http://socioecohistory.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/correlation_between_qe_n_snp500.jpg


Another lie from last year:




More lies...




...so let me ask you, am I lying?

buckworks

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Re: Unlimited QE3 just announced...
« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2012, 07:55:31 PM »
Quote
offends your lack of decency

Huh?

I stand by my point: a graph whose baseline is something other than zero can give a very different impression about the proportions of something than the same info presented in a graph that starts at zero.

That's something that consumers of information are wise to keep in mind.

dogboy

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Re: Unlimited QE3 just announced...
« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2012, 09:04:31 PM »
>I stand by my point: a graph whose baseline is something other than zero can give a very different impression about the proportions of something than the same info presented in a graph that starts at zero.

I think the operative word is 'can'.  In this case it didn't.  So the tip is a good one it just doesn't apply in this case.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2012, 09:07:25 PM by dogboy »

eljefe3

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Re: Unlimited QE3 just announced...
« Reply #21 on: October 02, 2012, 04:50:09 AM »
>>The people who will make the most money when it does will be those who make their investment decisions before the herd arrives.

What's that old expression, if you see the bandwagon you're too late, or something like that. You definitely need to be in whatever it is before the followers arrive.