Author Topic: Debbie says 'There are no Soft Landings.'  (Read 1401 times)

rcjordan

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Debbie says 'There are no Soft Landings.'
« on: September 24, 2022, 12:42:25 PM »
Central banks around the world are willing to risk recession to fight inflation

https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-risk-inflation-interest-rate-hikes-threaten-global-economic-downturn-2022-9

Drastic

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Re: Debbie says 'There are no Soft Landings.'
« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2022, 10:49:34 PM »
"When asked by CNBC's Jim Cramer if the global economy is entering a recession, FedEx's CEO, Raj Subramaniam, put it plainly. "I think so," he said.

Restoration Hardware's CEO, Gary Friedman, was more colorful when addressing recession worries in a September 8 earnings call.

"We're in a recession. Anybody who thinks we're not in a recession is crazy," he told analysts. "The housing market is in a recession, and it's just getting started."

Friedman and Subramaniam aren't alone. Of the companies included in the S&P 500, 240 brought up "recession" in their second-quarter-earnings calls, according to FactSet analysis. That's the highest share going back to 2010, when the firm started tracking such mentions. It also dwarfs the 212 "recession" citations seen at the start of the pandemic recession in early 2020."

So here we go. Debbie's been telling me to be ready for this one to hurt.

ergophobe

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Re: Debbie says 'There are no Soft Landings.'
« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2022, 06:22:58 PM »
>>ready for this one to hurt

Are you seeing any impact on the agency?

It's hard to say anything about travel and tourism from local information because of confounding variable (translation: fires), but for a few months now it has felt recessionary. Availability at times when normally there isn't. Hard to fill last-minute gaps. People citing worries about the economy rather than worries about fire for translation. People lowering prices.

It definitely feels like the free money festival of the Escape from Lockdown is over. But tourism is, of course, the ultimate discretionary spend.

Drastic

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Re: Debbie says 'There are no Soft Landings.'
« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2022, 01:20:18 PM »
It's a little slower than usual, but we're still growing. I think it's a bit early and the chips will begin to fall soon-ish. During/After holidays?

ukgimp

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Re: Debbie says 'There are no Soft Landings.'
« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2022, 02:32:11 AM »
The music seems to be slowing.

I see clients running sales to get volume up to make projections fit. Bad idea though as it trains users to expect sales but not my call.

buckworks

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Re: Debbie says 'There are no Soft Landings.'
« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2022, 04:05:17 AM »
>> trains users to expect sales

That would be me. There are some retailers both online and B&M where I shop quite a bit but I hardly ever pay "full price". I wait for things to go on sale.

DrCool

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Re: Debbie says 'There are no Soft Landings.'
« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2022, 04:41:05 PM »
There are a lot of retailers who's inventories are very, very high right now (40% up from last year) but sales are only up single digits in the 3-4% range. That means there is a lot of cash tied up in products sitting in the warehouses.

So I expect there to be some pretty aggressive promos this holiday season as these retailers try to move through some of that inventory. They definitely don't want it clogging up their warehouses and stores when the new products for 2023 start coming in.

rcjordan

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Re: Debbie says 'There are no Soft Landings.'
« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2022, 05:05:36 PM »
came up after Doc posted...

'The month of unprecedented deals' — From Amazon to Target, here's what you need to know about the early holiday sales going on now

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/07/amazons-prime-early-access-sale-2022-here-are-the-best-deals.html

littleman

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Re: Debbie says 'There are no Soft Landings.'
« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2022, 06:12:10 PM »
For those with clients I think it is important to get them thinking that the cost to conversions is going to go up.  They are going to want to pull back, but you have to tell them that that's a mistake and that they need to think about spending more on marketing maintain business as the economy contracts.

ergophobe

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Re: Debbie says 'There are no Soft Landings.'
« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2022, 04:20:07 AM »
If you can put together numbers on lifetime customer value, that helps make the marketing case. Looking at five years of business at the hotel, a customer was worth something like 1.7x their initial spend. At places with a lot of repeat business and fewer bucketlisters, that number is higher.

If the ads are bringing in new business, the ROAS looks a lot different with lifetime numbers.

That said, you can’t spend 100 dollars on ads for 90 dollars in profit for very long no matter how it pencils out over five years.

rcjordan

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Re: Debbie says 'There are no Soft Landings.'
« Reply #10 on: November 17, 2022, 06:26:29 PM »
Bullard Dials Up His ‘Minimum’ Fed Rate View to 5%-5.25% Range - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-17/fed-s-bullard-says-more-hikes-needed-to-get-to-restrictive-level


The Great Resignation Has Stalled and Layoffs Have Started | Average Pay

https://www.avgpay.com/the-great-resignation-stalled-and-layoffs-have-started/

RU already there...
Russia’s economy enters recession with 4% contraction | Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/content/e4f0cb9b-695c-4cc3-92c8-f8371de2ac38

Calif??
California stares down $25B deficit after years of record cash - POLITICO

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/16/california-25b-deficit-00068081

« Last Edit: November 17, 2022, 07:15:28 PM by rcjordan »

rcjordan

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Re: Debbie says 'There are no Soft Landings.'
« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2022, 07:52:38 PM »
+

The Fed's goldilocks scenario of taming inflation while avoiding a recession is more likely after October CPI report

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-fed-goldilocks-soft-landing-possible-inflation-cpi-2022-11