Author Topic: EVs: Rivian is America's biggest IPO since Facebook  (Read 1141 times)

rcjordan

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« Last Edit: November 10, 2021, 11:15:53 PM by rcjordan »

Drastic

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Re: EVs: Rivian is America's biggest IPO since Facebook
« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2021, 12:27:47 PM »
>now worth more than Ford or GM

With having delivered only 156 vehicles? Nah, this is fine.

rcjordan

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Re: EVs: Rivian is America's biggest IPO since Facebook
« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2021, 02:29:15 PM »
>this is fine.

I see what you did there, hhh.

>156

Yeah, and all to employees.   Ramping up production is going to be a lot of trial @ tribulation --but $20 B in IPO cash ought to soothe some of the pain.

The truck is still getting rave reviews BUT the growing fanboi social base may be skewing the reviews.  It is almost impossible to make a negative or critical comment or review without getting pilloried.

Even the fanbois now concede that a meaningful number of deliveries of the suv model isn't likely to happen before 2023 ---which works well for me *IF* -BIG IF- I decide to go with Rivian.  I am not a fan of all the after-sale maintenance subscription model the EV manufacturers are all pushing.  If we were younger, I would only sign up while kicking & screaming.  But we'll be in our mid-70s and I'm trying to convince myself that some damn manufacturer hovering over us could turn out to be a good thing.

rcjordan

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Drastic

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Re: EVs: Rivian is America's biggest IPO since Facebook
« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2021, 07:35:42 PM »
I, personally, am not interested in guinea pigging any of these things and that includes Tesla. When I can buy a car that will drive me anywhere without any driving input from me, that'll change.

Stock market is full-on crazy at this point imo.

rcjordan

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Re: EVs: Rivian is America's biggest IPO since Facebook
« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2021, 09:30:55 PM »
>not interested in guinea pigging

Same.  That said...

>suv isn't likely to happen before 2023

I'm expecting Tesla & Rivian to have worked out most of the kinks by then AND that may also be enough time to see how the co-joined issues of body repair and insurance shake out. (I'm thinking big insurance costs.)  I'll definitely keep a couple of smoke belchers in the stable on stand-by.

rcjordan

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Re: EVs: Rivian is America's biggest IPO since Facebook
« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2021, 12:16:06 AM »
Meanwhile....

"Once the sale closes in April 2022, Lordstown Motors will only occupy 30,000 of the 6.2 million square feet available at the factory it once owned, while other electric vehicle startups like Fisker Inc. come in to work with Foxconn on their own EVs."

Lordstown Motors delays Endurance EV pickup after announcing Foxconn deal
https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/11/22777172/lordstown-motors-endurance-pickup-truck-delay-foxconn

ergophobe

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Re: EVs: Rivian is America's biggest IPO since Facebook
« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2021, 01:26:53 AM »
>>co-joined issues of body repair and insurance shake out.

And charging. The EU recently stepped in by enforcing a charging standard for phones. Apple, the one outlier, is of course fighting it claiming, as companies always do when their proprietary tech doesn't win, that the rule will "stifle innovation." That may even be true. The thing is, the USB-C standard is many generations down the USB path and does everything Lightning does and much more and nobody is screaming for innovation in the phone charging cable space (cableless charging, yes, but the EU rule doesn't prevent that as far as I know).

Cars are a different deal. It seems early to impose a standard because there is a lot of innovation and a lot of promise for faster and faster charging as battery tech improves. So we could impose a standard and then in five years realize it is quadrupling charging times or something.

That said, I don't think EVs can reach true takeoff in the US until the charging infrastructure is built out and, ultimate standardize. Right now it's as if Fords can only fill at Chevron stations and Nissans can only fill at Valero and Teslas can only fill at Tesla stations. That makes rolling out enough charging stations very complex.

rcjordan

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Re: EVs: Rivian is America's biggest IPO since Facebook
« Reply #8 on: November 13, 2021, 01:38:20 AM »
>charging

There seems to be some standardizing on the plug, at least.  Tesla, Rivan, Ford & others are currently using the SAE J1772
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAE_J1772

rcjordan

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Re: EVs: Rivian is America's biggest IPO since Facebook
« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2021, 08:15:33 PM »
>charging

Mostly Level 2 chargers.  25 miles per hour of charge.

Bidenís $7.5 billion EV charging plan will require a lot of patience - The Verge
https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/16/22765438/biden-infrastructure-bill-electric-vehicle-ev-charging-level-2

rcjordan

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Re: EVs: Rivian is America's biggest IPO since Facebook
« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2021, 12:40:02 AM »
>charging

New-build supermarkets, workplaces and buildings undergoing major renovations will also come under the new law.

New homes in England to have electric car chargers by law - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59369715

ergophobe

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Re: EVs: Rivian is America's biggest IPO since Facebook
« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2021, 05:31:31 PM »
>>25 miles per hour of charge.

Disappointing but expected. Before we can roll out a lot of high-speed chargers, we're going to need major grid upgrades. They put in 8 Tesla superchargers at the hotel I worked at and it took major upgrades to the local infrastructure including a large new transformer and upgrades down the line at the switching station.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Supercharger
Quote
A 1 MW charge box supplies 4 stalls at 250 kW each

A megawatt for four chargers! The older ones are 150kW for two, so that means that the eight-charger station at the hotel has 1.2mW of capacity??? That means we will never have a high-speed charger in our neighborhood - the entire subdivision is fed by a 1mW line. So to put a high-speed charger in here, you would need to run about 7 miles of upgraded electrical line.

Obviously, we're an edge case as we are for internet and cell and even landline, but I bet a lot of small subdivisions are fed by similar lines, just shorter ones.

And then there is the wasted energy... Friends building a house opted to put in a transformer at the street rather than running expensive three-phase power for 150 meters. Completely idle, with no load at all yet, the step-down transformer burns 400W.

Apparently an idle transformer loses about 3%. So if you have 1mW of capacity, you are burning about 30kW just idling. That 3% is for a standard step-down transformer and I don't know how that compares to supplying juice to a Supercharger station, but based on the loud and constant buzzing at the very large transformer that powers the eight-charger station at the hotel, there is a lot of energy loss at idle.



Brad

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Re: EVs: Rivian is America's biggest IPO since Facebook
« Reply #12 on: November 23, 2021, 05:48:22 PM »
> grid

If we have to increase the grid, neighborhood by neighborhood, or home by home, before we get fast charging in the home, EV adoption will be slow.

Friction to adoption:

1. Cost of vehicle
2. Cost of installing charging point at home (if you can find an electrician.)
3. Hassle of #2 above.
4. Range reduction using AC or in cold weather (as per RC in another thread.)
5. Initial limited selection of models and brands.

And I wonder about cities: city grids have some big pipes, but transformer vaults are currently sized for a certain size of transformer.  If we start adding high speed charging to every city parking lot and city garage that's a heck of a lot of added infrastructure in limited space.

Makes hydrogen fuel cell vehicles look more tempting.

rcjordan

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Re: EVs: Rivian is America's biggest IPO since Facebook
« Reply #13 on: November 23, 2021, 06:11:50 PM »
The Level 2 chargers (25m/hr)  are no big deal.  They draw about the same as a kitchen stove and less than an electric dryer or hvac sytem ...throttled to 45 amps, IIRC.  Installation is easy IF you have the capacity for another breaker in your panelboard.  The ballpark costs I'm seeing for L2 installation by an electrician are $1200-2k. The L2 charger itself sells for $400-$500.  I believe Tesla offered to subsidize installation costs. Not sure if they still do.

So, for probably most of the commutes and local driving, overnight on an L2 will be fine ...road trips, not so much.

>city

City dwellers are screwed.  As mentioned before, your landlord ain't going to let you string cords out the windows and across the parking lot.