>>yield curve
The problem I have with all these articles is that they do not mention how often the yield curve inverts and there is no recession (which I know has happened, but I don't know how often).
The inverted yield curve precedes recession by up to 24 months. You know what else precedes recession by up to 24 months? Congressional elections. Every recession in US history has occurred within 24 months of a congressional election. We just had one last month. Should I be worried?
Stats like this just drive me insane. Or maybe I should say journalists who don't understand squat about stats drive me insane. In itself, the fact that every recession has been preceded by an inverted yield curve is meaningless.
Other things that precede recessions by between 24 hours and 24 months
- sunrise
- sunset
- summer
- winter
- the Olympics (sometimes it's the summer Olympics and sometimes it's the winter Olympics that precede recession by 24 months or less; once it was both)