Th3 Core
Why We Are Here => Economics & Investing => Topic started by: rcjordan on April 15, 2021, 04:58:11 PM
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Inflation Worriers Still Have Plenty to Worry Them - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-13/inflation-worriers-still-have-plenty-to-worry-them
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Companies sound alarm over commodity price hikes
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/companies-sound-alarm-commodity-price-hikes-77394274
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Skyrocketing steel, lumber costs threaten to slow construction jobs
As material prices jump, contractors cope any way they can.
https://www.constructiondive.com/news/skyrocketing-steel-lumber-costs-threaten-to-slow-construction-jobs/594969/
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> construction
Around here the smaller residential contractors (those that survived 2009) are going out of business or are stepping away for awhile. The bigger boys are moving in and they can buy in quantities of scale that can offset the rising costs.
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I'm waiting for Doc Cool to tell us about the rise in beef prices. I hit the butcher shop last week and I may have to go vegetarian, hhh.
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>construction
Soaring Lumber Prices Add $36,000 to the Cost of a New Home, and a Fierce Land Grab Is Only Making It Worse
https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/business/money-report/soaring-lumber-prices-add-36000-to-the-cost-of-a-new-home-and-a-fierce-land-grab-is-only-making-it-worse/2478214/
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Widespread Commodity Shortages Raise Inflation Fears - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/business/economy/commodity-shortages-inflation.html
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Not currently inflating: U.S. population.
"The U.S. birth rate is so low, the nation is “below replacement levels,” meaning more people die every day than are being born, the CDC said."
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/us-birth-and-fertility-rates-dropped-to-another-record-low-in-2020-cdc-says.html
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>population
That's how to handle the housing costs problem.
Debbie says:
Everything ***Screams*** Inflation - WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/articles/everything-screams-inflation-11620163599
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The big questions are:
1. is inflation bad?
2. for whom?
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Well, this is going to cost everybody whether they know it or not.
Copper Just Smashed Past a Record. Here’s What You Need to Know - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-08/copper-just-smashed-past-a-record-here-s-what-you-need-to-know
<aside>
Though my dad would not speculate on the stock market he would bet the ranch on .....copper pipe and copper wire. When copper prices bottomed out truckloads of pipe & wire would start arriving at the wholesale business. We'd have pallets & bundles of it stacked everywhere.
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https://www.longtermtrends.net/copper-gold-ratio/
Copper prices are high only relative to the recent past if you look at them according to the copper/gold price ratio. By that standard, it's less than half the cost it was a decade ago (when it was outrageously high).
Right now it's cheaper than at any time in history since 1979 (of course, that starts putting you into the era of regulated gold prices, so I'm not sure how useful that is)
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Interesting charts. There was a spike back in the early 1970's which I remember, because that's when
some genius they came out with aluminum wiring for homes which didn't last long.
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A new house that would have cost $10,000 in wood to get off the ground a couple of years ago now costs $40,000 worth of wood — assuming, that is, you can even get your hands on the lumber.
Since 2007, he sold off one sawmill and completely shut down two others; he employs about 700 workers now, but with those jettisoned operations, he estimates he’d have employed 500 more. He notes that many people just don’t understand how hard it is to get a sawmill up and running. “They’d like to see our industry respond to these prices and make new lumber, but a new sawmill today is $100 million, it takes two years to build, and there’s no guarantee you’re going to have the raw materials to run it.” Plus, who knows how long this current surge will last.
https://www.vox.com/22410713/lumber-prices-shortage
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I wonder if we will start playing with non-wood materials?
20 years ago people around here were playing with building with galvanized steel studs and framing members, pushed by the steel industry. Never took off. One small builder used Insulated Concrete Forms on both the foundation and kept going to form the outer walls above ground. Very quiet inside. Used a lot less lumber.
The problem is builders are so resistant to change. So are the trade unions.
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> galvanized steel studs
What happened was that steel was depressed and lumber skyrocketed, so for a brief period costs were pretty close. Locally, we had at least one builder switch. I rode by the job sites to watch. BUT assembly was slow. Tools & fasteners were different. Hanging sheathing & drywall was a PITA.
I think that 3d printed houses might get a foothold now.
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SIPS require a fraction of the lumber. If the SIP factories can get their hands on enough OSB, maybe they'll finally take off.
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> galvanized steel studs
I heard radio reception was bad inside. I don't think cell phones were around then.
> SIPS
SIPS are great. The problem with OSB, manufactured wood joists and hundreds of other newfangled building materials is they are made from the waste of the lumber industry and you have to be actually producing lumber to get lumber waste products.
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By far the biggest factor behind the acceleration relates to the past, rather than the price pressures of today, as last year’s oil-price falls depressed the base used to calculate the annual rate. Yet even the monthly increase, stripped of more volatile food and energy prices, was 0.9%, the strongest since the 1980s. Data for a single month cannot tell you whether runaway inflation is around the corner. But the release says something about the realities of economic reopening.
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/05/13/consumer-price-inflation-in-america-jumps-up-to-42
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> 0.9%
Debbie says pucker up.
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Lumber prices fall for an 8th straight day, deepening a roughly 30% pullback | Markets Insider
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/lumber-prices-fall-for-8th-straight-day-deepening-pullback-2021-5-1030447627
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Hot inflation may have become scorching in May and is expected to hit a 28-year high
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/09/hot-inflation-became-scorching-in-may-and-is-expected-to-hit-a-28-year-high.html
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JPMorgan is hoarding cash because ‘very good chance’ inflation is here to stay
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/14/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-is-hoarding-cash-because-very-good-chance-inflation-here-to-stay.html
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Are you hoarding cash?
What qualifies as hoarding cash for an individual?
How about this as a criteria: I think a "good" emergency fund is six months of living expenses. I think a conservative emergency fund is about 12-18 months living expenses. Anything beyond that is hoarding cash.
Anyway, other than cash, it seems like current options are:
- very low-paying safe investments (CDs, bonds, etc)
- stocks, which seem sky high, but I've felt that before and mostly was wrong
- real estate - which will be in for a huge correction if interest rates rise
- et cetera
And of course, there's always Bitcoin as long as you want Elon Musk to be in control of your investment ;-)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2021/06/13/move-over-dogecoin-tesla-billionaire-elon-musk-has-suddenly-sent-the-bitcoin-price-sharpy-higher/
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>are you hoarding?
Yes, definitely. I have several years of living expenses sitting in 1 checking & 1 savings account and another 6 months worth in a CD. As I liquidated some business interests, I just didn't have anywhere to put it that I felt was solid enough for an elders' retirement account. I had no faith in the stock market, though that has proven to be wrong.
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"Consumers' complaints about rising prices on homes, vehicles, and household durables has reached an all-time record"
U.S. consumer sentiment drops in early July on inflation fears | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-consumer-sentiment-drops-early-july-inflation-fears-2021-07-16/
Rents are going through the roof across much of the U.S. - CBS News
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-apartment-rent-hike-pre-pandemic-price-levels/
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The question is do people behave rationally and put off purchases because prices are high, in which case inflation is a blip and back to normal, or do they panic and buy before prices rise even more, in which case we're back to WIN buttons. Remember those?
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This is a good sign.
July Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Sales to Continue Free-Fall"
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/07/july-vehicle-sales-forecast-sales-to.html
Short-term inflation is about supply and demand. Secular inflation is about a story that people are telling about the future. If people tell the right story about the future ("Holy crap, cars are overpriced right now, I'm going to wait") we do not end up with secular inflation. If they tell the wrong story, as they did in the 1970s ("Holy crap, prices are rising fast, I better buy that car now while I can still afford it), we end up with secular inflation.
Seeing people choose option 1 is a good sign, though it looks like this is still mostly a supply problem (no cars to buy) than a demand problem (too expensive, so I don't want one). So it's not clear how it will play out.
I heard on Planet Money that 60% of the recent inflation was due to nothing other than car prices and airfare. Since most people can make their car go another year and, right now, air travel is highly biased toward leisure travel, the demand is elastic in theory. If it plays out that way in practice, we'll be okay.
Plus, a bit of extra inflation over the short term is not a bad thing - the Fed has undershot its inflation target for years now.
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Now THIS is serious!
Coffee prices surge as unusual cold threatens Brazilian production | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/coffee-prices-surge-unusual-cold-threatens-brazilian-production-2021-07-26/
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I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell you! Who would have thought that printing trillions of dollars would cause inflation?
Fed Chair Jerome Powell: "Inflation Could Turn Out To Be Higher And More Persistent Than We Expect"
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2021/07/28/fed_chair_jerome_powell_inflation_could_turn_out_to_be_higher_and_more_persistent_than_we_expect.html
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UK posts the biggest jump in annual inflation on record - ABC News
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/uk-posts-biggest-jump-annual-inflation-record-80029966
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Well, I get some of my 'real' income loss due to inflation back.
Social Security COLA largest in decades as inflation jumps - POLITICO
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/13/social-security-cola-boost-515878
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Is higher inflation cause for concern?
Central bankers say they have it under control
https://www.economist.com/news/2021/10/08/is-higher-inflation-cause-for-concern
1 in 5 dollars in circulation were created in 2020
Inflation was underestimated; now overestimated.
https://www.economist.com/news/2021/10/08/is-higher-inflation-cause-for-concern
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Marmite maker Unilever raises prices by 4% amid high UK inflation
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/21/marmite-maker-unilever-raises-prices-inflation-uk
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Inflation Report Hits Markets Hard
https://www.newser.com/story/313240/inflation-report-roils-bond-markets.html
Maybe We Should Have Listened To Larry Summers On Inflation
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/11/inflation-larry-summers-biden-build-back-better-spending-manchin.html
The cost of living surged in October
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/the-cost-of-living-surged-in-october-111021.html
U.S. inflation: Which goods are driving up consumer prices?
https://www.fastcompany.com/90695665/octobers-inflation-was-the-highest-in-30-years-heres-whats-driving-it
Inflation Hits 30-Year Record as Prices Rise 6.2 Percent
https://www.mediaite.com/news/inflation-hits-30-year-record-as-consumer-prices-rise-6-2-percent/
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New term from the team at Planet Money: skimpflation
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/10/26/1048892388/meet-skimpflation-a-reason-inflation-is-worse-than-the-government-says-it-is
This is 100% correct. Talking to a hotelier a couple months ago. He said that since they don't have staff, they can't fill anyway. So though demand was down, prices were the same... with fewer services. Instead of the dozen people in Guest Rec, they had two.
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The used-car conundrum
A handful of items are driving inflation in America
Our new measure shows that this portends lower inflation—but not enough for the Fed to lower its guard
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/11/06/a-handful-of-items-are-driving-inflation-in-america
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> Inflation Is Under Control
`The inflation genie is out of the bottle' as consumer sentiment takes a hit and Californians pay $12 for a regular burrito - MarketWatch
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-inflation-genie-is-out-of-the-bottle-as-consumer-sentiment-takes-a-hit-and-californians-pay-12-for-a-regular-burrito-11636747851
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>under control
Debbie says Omicron is something of a scapegoat. Inflation -significant inflation- has been baked in according to old school economics.
Inflation may keep rising next year, in part due to COVID-19 Omicron variant, Fed Chair Jerome Powell tells Congress - CBS News
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-covid-omicron-variant-covid-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-congress/
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Like water on a magnesium fire...
Biden: Highest inflation in 39 years means Congress must pass $2T spending bill
That's not how it works, Joe.
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The Dirty Secret of Inflation: Corporations Are Jacking Up Prices and Profits
The US Department of Commerce reported at the end of December that corporate profit margins had hit the highest level in 70 years. You’ll hear a lot of complex, and often conflicting, explanations for why this is happening now.
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/inflation-price-gouging/
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This cynic in me is telling me that the changes in our Covid policies has more to do with inflation than anything else.
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Some price hikes are legit due to material costs going up. But these higher costs should be temporary.
But for a lot of it, companies price their goods by "what the market will bear" and they are jacking up prices to see how high they can get away with.
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In Europe Gas and oil is just going up again... cause.... Russia.
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>Russia
Yep, that's going to be a new global disruptive force. How bad is it going to get? I feel like this one has a lot of negative potential.
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A friend was just quoted 11% on a business van (Vauxhall) . He borrowed the money on a personal loan, at 2.5%
But the 11% quote shocked me.
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>11% quote shocked me
That was my mortgage rate on our new home in 1977.
>11%
Good! I need to make some money!
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>In Europe Gas and oil is just going up again... cause.... Russia.
Ukraine's invasion underscores Europe's reliance on Russian fossil fuels | MIT Technology Review
https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/02/23/1046429/how-the-ukraine-invasion-could-accelerate-europes-clean-energy-shift
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Fed Chairman Powell: 'We should have moved earlier'
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-chairman-powell-we-should-have-moved-earlier-211146680.html
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Red-Hot Inflation Gets Even Hotter
https://www.newser.com/story/319233/red-hot-inflation-gets-even-hotter.html
related: The US official inflation rate is bastardized by cherry-picking the shopping cart of goods whose prices are polled. Truflation.com is an award-winning project to reconfigure the CPI without political bias. In January 2022, Truflation was 11.4% IIRC, my feeds said the current annual TF rate is 13%.
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Time for the Fed to release the Kracken....
Inflation accelerated in May to the fastest pace in 41 years
US CPI Inflation Gains to 8.6% in May, Exceeding Estimates
https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-report-cpi-may-gas-prices-federal-reserve-rate-hikes-2022-6
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On Aug. 15, 1971, in a nationally televised address, President Nixon announced, “I am today ordering a freeze on all prices and wages throughout the United States.”
After a 90‐day freeze, increases would have to be approved by a “Pay Board” and a “Price Commission,” with an eye toward eventually lifting controls — conveniently, after the 1972 election.
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Having lived through the 70s as a young adult, you can understand why Debbie is a little cynical when the goverment say inflation is 'under control.'
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> cynical
Same here.
I remember the Nixon price controls - they didn't work.
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2007 article makes for déjà vu re gas & oil:
History 101: Price controls don't work – Chicago Tribune
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2007-06-07-0706061080-story.html
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>> Nixon price controls
They worked as well as Ford buttons. Remember those?
(https://www.fordlibrarymuseum.gov/museum/artifactcollectionsamples/catagories/win/regular/1992.248.jpg)
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>Though my dad would not speculate on the stock market he would bet the ranch on copper pipe and copper wire. When copper prices bottomed out truckloads of pipe & wire would start arriving at the wholesale business. We'd have pallets & bundles of it stacked everywhere.
Copper Prices Fall Lowest in 20 Months. This Miner Just Warned of Earnings Hit. | Barron's
https://www.barrons.com/articles/copper-prices-lowest-rio-tinto-51657880310
Harbinger of recession. Buckle up.
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Home Prices Falling in Major US Markets
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/home-prices-are-falling-in-6-major-us-cities-and-still-rising-in-13-here-s-how-the-major-markets-are-faring-as-buyers-adjust-to-the-end-of-the-boom/ar-AA11hwko
This follows on this news (which I might have posted already)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/cheap-homes-house-prices-are-being-slashed-in-former-pandemic-boomtowns
https://www.axios.com/2022/08/23/boise-real-estate-price-cuts
I'm seeing more and more headlines about commodities prices going down too.
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October: Fed seen ramping up interest-rate hikes as inflation burns hot
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This is insane.
Federal Report: Highway Construction 50 Percent More Expensive Than in 2020
https://www.planetizen.com/news/2023/04/122701-federal-report-highway-construction-50-percent-more-expensive-2020?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=dlvr-twitter&utm_campaign=newfeed
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UK inflation rate surprises again with March figure holding above 10%
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/19/uk-inflation-rate-surprises-again-with-march-figure-holding-above-10percent.html