Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)

[Mackin USA]

The Dow Will Bounce Back. History Tells Us When


https://www.barrons.com/articles/time-to-buy-stocks-history-offers-a-guide-51583637721

ADDED
We have the strongest economy in the world. As long as the government does NOTHING the market will correct itself'. To quote Elon Musk https://www.usatoday.com/.../coronavirus.../4994870002/

[ergophobe]

The Dow Will Bounce Back. History Tells Us When

The challenging part is:

For starters, it appears big dips beget more big dips.

“The coronavirus is reminiscent of 1990 in terms of stock-market effect,” wrote Stifel head of institutional equity strategy Barry Bannister, referring to the year Iraq invaded Kuwait. “A short, sharp, out-of-the blue shock that, after the fact, proved to have been painful, but economically overrated.”

There wasn’t a 10% weekly decline in 1990. There was, however, a 7.8% decline, and the market dropped six straight weeks around the August occupation.

As littleman said early on, this will probably have a longer effect than Sept 11 (or the Gulf War).

I suppose this is probably a great time for dollar-cost averaging. If you have $12 to invest, invest a dollar month through the downturn

[littleman]

>I keep wondering if it's finally time to put some cash into the stock market.

If you want to hedge your investment you could start dollar cost averaging, but
I doubt we are at the bottom yet.  Given that stocks tend to fall faster than they rise it seems to make sense to wait imo.

[ergophobe]

dollar cost averaging, but

:-) See last line of my post. Still, before Corona, I was thinking a 20% downturn would be a signal to jump in. Haven't checked whether we are there or not.

In terms of economic effects, I draw your attention to items 3 and 4 on this page
https://industry.visitcalifornia.com/marketing-communications/coronavirus

We are currently modeling impacts based on an assumed five- to six-month crisis window but a longer impact on travel. The most affected market segments will be large events and overseas visits. In 2003, overseas visits to the US contracted for 8 months with China falling 30% for the year and the rest of Asia falling 10%. Total international visits fell 5.4%. Canada and Mexico were less affected than overseas markets with declines of 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively.

Here, scroll below the recording replay (I did not attend the webinar) and look at the charts.
https://keydatadashboard.com/coronavirus-impact-report-on-short-term-vacation-rental-regions/

The travel industry is going to experience a bloodbath... actually, it already is.

[littleman]

Coronavirus crackdown is cutting Italy's GDP by 10-15% - economist

[rcjordan]

^{Ships' logs...}

Busiest Port in U.S. Sees 23% Drop in Cargo Volumes in February – gCaptain
https://gcaptain.com/busiest-port-in-u-s-sees-23-drop-in-cargo-volumes-in-february/

[rcjordan]

Coronavirus fallout: At least 150 companies have warned of earnings hit

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/coronavirus-at-least-150-companies-have-warned-investors.html

[littleman]

They're talking about a payroll tax cut, that's not going to do much.

[rcjordan]

>payroll tax cut, that's not going to do much.

Restaurants across the country are already on the brink of collapse. What happens when this goes on for a month or more?

I see a lot of chatter about uber drivers and hourly workers getting paid.  There'll be some spotty feel-good stories, but the overall impact on payroll numbers is going to be horrific.

...And nobody has even mentioned anything about those that work on commission or tips.  No protection for them.  For instance, how many real estate agents are going to have their income wiped out for a few months?

[ergophobe]

Just heard a radio story on this on the way to work - 30% of US workers have no paid sick leave. 70% have less than two weeks.

I am thinking that does NOT count those who are self-employed - real estate agents, handymen, solo SEOs...

[nffc]

> Restaurants

Almost a total wipeout in Vietnam, no customers. They will hang on though.

In my Cyprus neck of the woods restaurants are empty, sort of pre-season but nipped to the shops earlier and had to avoid the tumbleweed. Eerily quiet. More leveraged here, some will take a tumble.

I'm in the process of building a 28 room resort in Ninh Binh, Vietnam. Thankfully won't be finished until next year, ready to ride the wave of pent up travel demand  Assuming anybody is still alive 

[rcjordan]

> 28 room resort

Get one of those disinfectant-spraying drones to patrol the hallways and common areas.

Don't buy a cruise ship.

[rcjordan]

The first wave of coronavirus-related layoffs has started - The Washington Post (paywalled)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/11/layoffs-coronavirus/

[littleman]

From /r/dataisbeautiful/, shows the stark contrast between this downturn and 2008.  Looks like a stone falling off a cliff.

[buckworks]

A friend of mine in New York closed his office on Wednesday. Manhattan office, family-owed business, luxury products, 30-40 employees. Everyone is hunkering down at home "until further notice".

He fears the company won't stay solvent for long.