Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)

[littleman]

The markets make no sense ATM:
Stocks up
Bonds up
Commodities up
Dollar down
Interest rates extremely low

Everything is being propped up by free money.  Are we going to have a giant spike in inflation, or is it all going to come crashing down?

[Mackin USA]

THAT is why GOLD & Bitcoin are UP

[rcjordan]

UK recession is worst of any major economy - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/12/economy/uk-economy-gdp/index.html

[littleman]

Goldman Says Almost a Quarter of Temporary Layoffs in U.S. to Be Permanent

[ergophobe]

American Airlines to Furlough 19,000 Workers
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/25/business/american-airline-furlough-19000.html

ncluding buyouts, retirements and leaves of absence, the company expects to have about 40,000 fewer employees on Oct. 1 than it did before the pandemic, a 30 percent decline in its work force.

Evidence is mounting that the once-strong economic recovery is losing steam. Hiring slowed in July, and various indicators suggest it has slumped further in August. Weekly claims for unemployment benefits have jumped back above one million, reversing a gradual decline. And new data on Tuesday showed that consumer confidence fell in August to its lowest level since the pandemic took hold.

Things could get worse in the coming months. Restaurants and other businesses that have been able to shift some operations outdoors will struggle when the weather turns colder.

For many businesses, time is running out. Cases of the virus are falling but remain high in much of the country, making a full reopening of the economy impossible. Entire sectors, such as live entertainment, hospitality and travel, remain either shut down or severely restricted. And experts warn that the longer the crisis persists, the more lasting the damage will be: Furloughs will turn into permanent job losses, short-term business closures will lead to bankruptcies, and sectors that were relatively insulated from the pandemic will suffer as the public health crisis morphs into a more traditional recession.

[rcjordan]

>shift some operations outdoors will struggle when the weather turns colder.

I hadn't thought about that one.

[littleman]

Grim picture, and the colder weather is likely to push the case numbers up. 

>Cases of the virus are falling

Testing is going down, I think deaths are a more reliable meter.
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/lettergram/covid19-analysis/master/graphs/us-counts-log.png

Edit:
A better graph for testing over time:
https://i.redd.it/ndott0ge1oj51.png

[rcjordan]

Fed study: Wage growth an “illusion” that’s “almost entirely attributable” to low-wage job losses | Salon.com

https://www.salon.com/2020/09/05/fed-study-wage-growth-an-illusion-thats-almost-entirely-attributable-to-low-wage-job-losses/

[rcjordan]

GameStop Is Closing Up to 450 Stores This Year
https://www.pcmag.com/news/gamestop-is-closing-up-to-450-stores-this-year

[rcjordan]

NPR Poll: Financial Pain From Coronavirus Pandemic 'Much, Much Worse' Than Expected

COVID-19's Serious Financial Impact Hits Almost Half Of U.S. Households

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/09/09/909669760/npr-poll-financial-pain-from-coronavirus-pandemic-much-much-worse-than-expected

[rcjordan]

US: 6 million miss rent, mortgage payments in September

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/10/17/covid-19-stimulus-6-million-miss-rent-mortgage-payments-september/3694327001/

[ergophobe]

This is going to be a rough winter. I'm sort of surprised it isn't worse for us and generally, but we have friends who are right on the edge including some who would be over the edge if their friends weren't joining together to keep them afloat. Anyone who was precarious before or doing okay but without big reserves is struggling.

I don't know what a lot of these folks are going to do.

[Rupert]

The banks and the landlords just need to let it go and realise the money is not coming in.

OK, I am probably in dreamland again (I spend too much time there)  but realistically the people who borrow money from the printers, just need to borrow a bit more and throw it down the line again.

[rcjordan]

China leads major economies in post-covid recovery - The Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-economy-recovery-covid/2020/10/19/d574d08c-1204-11eb-a258-614acf2b906d_story.html

[ergophobe]

>>China leads

https://www.arte.tv/fr/videos/099397-000-A/chine-le-paradoxe-de-wuhan/

I didn't watch the whole thing, but it's pretty incredible. Dance clubs packed. No masks. Visitation to Wuhan is up 40% YOY. Apparently, once not that well-known, Covid has put Wuhan on the map and it is now a tourist destination and it hopping.