Author Topic: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)  (Read 107082 times)

ergophobe

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #435 on: December 12, 2020, 09:46:23 PM »
My brother bought me that book as a joke. I actually read it (which would shock people who know how I dress, but maybe not shock people who know how I read). I liked that it was not "ideological." If memory serves, his basic viewpoint is, "This is nothing but arbitrary convention, but it's the culture we live in. You can opt out, but there are situations where opting out will hurt you. Your choice. If you choose to opt in, this is how."

That actually made me more comfortable and gave me a framework for opting in and opting out and understanding the tradeoffs.

It was also my mother's advice. When I was applying for a programmer job, back then they expected you to wear a blazer and tie to the interview. Now it would count against you of course. Anyway, I was surly and she said, "Look, getting a job is just a game. Like many other games, such as football or hockey, this game has a uniform. The uniform is a blazer, tie, dress shirt, dress pants, belt and dress shoes. If you want to play the game, you need to wear the uniform. If you don't have the uniform, you're not allowed on the field. That's just the way some games work."

Brad

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #436 on: December 12, 2020, 10:22:27 PM »
One of the things I got from Molloy:  Buy suits that are in good taste.  "Style and fashion" come and go but good taste is never out of style.

Rupert

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #437 on: December 13, 2020, 09:06:26 AM »
That's all a tremendous boost folks thank you.
... Make sure you live before you die.

ergophobe

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #438 on: December 18, 2020, 04:06:00 PM »
How the Economy Is Actually Doing, in 9 Charts
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/17/business/economy/economic-indicator-charts-measures.html

Executive summary  -  lots of long-term unemployed, overall workforce has contracted by 4 million, unemployment worse among Black, Asian and Hispanic women, but Asian men are doing about as well as white men. The economy has shifted from goods to services. There is considerable food insecurity (12.7%) and housing insecurity (9.1%). And yet, there are increases in home prices (11%) and rent (5.6%). Wages and salaries have, nevertheless, witnessed a "V-shaped" recovery (went from $9.2t in Jan 2019 to $9.7t in Jan 2020 to $8.7t in April 2020 to $9.6t in Oct 2020) and productivity is up.

Rupert

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #439 on: December 18, 2020, 06:27:03 PM »
Quote
Wages and salaries have, nevertheless, witnessed a "V-shaped" recovery
  Is that because its the low paid who have lost their jobs do you think?
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rcjordan

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #440 on: December 18, 2020, 06:44:11 PM »
>lost their jobs

Yes.

"Another shape that shows what is really occurring is a K-shaped recovery. This kind shows a portion of the population and businesses recover quickly and fully, while another suffers a great deal. Given the impact of Covid-19 and what it has done to the restaurant, bar, travel and hospitality industries it isnít hard to realize that this is the type of recovery the U.S. is experiencing. As opposed to industries such as technology and some segments of retail"

Three Charts Show A K-Shaped Recovery

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/10/24/three-charts-show-a-k-shaped-recovery/

ergophobe

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #441 on: December 18, 2020, 08:57:38 PM »
Especially when you consider that tipped workers in most US states can be paid close to nothing in wages. So even a waiter who makes a nice living in a nice restaurant, may have close to nothing in wages. You fire sixty of them and add one engineer and wages remain unchanged, though total income will have changed significantly for the worse.

rcjordan

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Rupert

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #443 on: December 21, 2020, 05:21:34 PM »
New COVID strain: A fresh blow to Britain′s economy

https://www.dw.com/en/new-covid-strain-a-fresh-blow-to-britains-economy/a-56007942?maca=en-GK-Inoreader-NewsPolitics-21641-xml-media

Its right across London, it will be in every other country too. The French are making a hard point imho about their fishing needs, and how important France is to the UK.
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rcjordan

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #444 on: December 21, 2020, 05:57:56 PM »
>will be in every other country too

Already found a case in Rome.

ergophobe

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #445 on: December 21, 2020, 08:11:31 PM »
Auctioning Off a Dead Mall
When a shopping mall closes, where does all of its stuff go?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/17/style/auctioning-off-a-dead-mall.html

ergophobe

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #446 on: January 03, 2021, 11:24:06 PM »
>I think the March bottom was the bottom.

With respect, you done lost your mind.

NOW I'm worried with the valuations we're seeing. I expect we'll see another correction soon. But just FYI, since that day when I done lost my mind, the IRA contribution I made that week is up 61%.

Again, I will be shocked if it is still up 61% come Dec 31, but on paper, staying in stocks and adding a little when the panic was at its maximum has turned out pretty good so far. Very scary though. That said, I'm more scared about having money in stocks right now than I was at the end of March.

Pre-Covid, I was holding cash because everything seemed overvalued despite a basically good economy for investors (not particularly good for workers, but that's another story). My expected scenario was that stocks would take 2-3 years to claw their way back. Now that they're already above the pre-Covid nosebleed valuations with money-losing companies having terrific IPOs. It feels like 1999.

So... I wasn't that worried at the end of March, but now I am. Now we have nosebleed valuations in a *bad* economy. As Orwell wrote: 2+2=5
« Last Edit: January 03, 2021, 11:29:04 PM by ergophobe »

rcjordan

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #447 on: January 03, 2021, 11:48:55 PM »
>1999

Dizzying Valuations, IPO Craze Tick Boxes on Bubble Checklist - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-02/dizzying-valuations-ipo-craze-tick-boxes-on-bubble-checklist

ergophobe

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #448 on: January 04, 2021, 12:18:31 AM »
Ya... I saw that article. It's one of the ones I was thinking about when I wrote the previous posts.

For all the reasons I stated back in April, I did not expect Covid to lead to a Great Depression, but I did agree it was a possibility. By the standards of The Core, I was an optimistic outlier, but I would NEVER have considered the the possibility that the S&P 500 would close the year at a record high.

I don't watch the markets or even the general economy very closely, so there could be a lot of faulty memory and selection bias in what follows. But still, there are only three times where I felt that I just couldn't make sense of what was happening.

1999: absurd, stupid, ridiculous companies offering services that I couldn't imagine many people wanting, losing money like mad and planning to make it up on volume and yet enjoying sky high valuations. I just couldn't figure that out. As a historian (and not at all an investor), the explanation that "This time it's different," struck me as very unlikely. It's one of the few other times I made a good investment call. My grandmother died in 1999 and I got a small inheritance that friends told me to put in the market. I paid off my student loans instead. That decision was less a function of my great foresight than the simple facts that I didn't really understand why the market was going up so fast and I hate having debt, so I paid off the debt, assuming I would regret it in the long run.

2006: We had only recently become full-time gainfully employed after a period of dissertation writing and some budget travel and the bank said we could qualify for a $2,000,000 loan for a house. This struck us as absurd because there was absolutely no way we could pay that back. Other than not taking out a loan I couldn't repay, I only had a vague sense that something was wrong with the housing market, so I didn't take any action.

2021: many of the people I know are unemployed, Covid is far from vanquished, the efficacy of the vaccine is not really proven on a population scale, Americans are still banned from travel to Europe, in law (though not in practice) people can't travel to or within California without quarantine, and a lodging listing service just blew away all expectations with its IPO and the stock market is at a record high.

I don't want to imply in any way that I called it in 1999 or 2008. I was not nearly that prescient. I was not expecting a collapse in the stock market or the housing market and most definitely did not predict those things. I was as surprised as anyone.

It's only in retrospect that I was able to correlate my feeling of, "Huh??" with future events. But having had that experience twice and now sitting here a third time thinking, "Huh???" it is making me quite nervous.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2021, 12:23:12 AM by ergophobe »

ergophobe

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #449 on: January 04, 2021, 06:48:57 PM »
Why Markets Boomed in a Year of Human Misery
It wasnít just the Fed or the stimulus. The rise in savings among white-collar workers created a tide lifting nearly all financial assets.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/upshot/why-markets-boomed-2020.html

The article does note that though it wasn't "just the stimulus," a trillion dollars shot into the economy didn't hurt.