Th3 Core

Why We Are Here => Economics & Investing => Topic started by: littleman on December 21, 2018, 09:43:18 PM

Title: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 21, 2018, 09:43:18 PM
Dow sinks again, putting December performance at risk as the worst since 1931 (https://www.pennlive.com/news/2018/12/dow-sinks-again-putting-december-performance-at-risk-as-the-worst-since-1931.html)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Rupert on December 22, 2018, 08:47:24 AM
UK house prices set to tumble:
https://www.hertsad.co.uk/property/rightmove-reports-biggest-fall-in-house-prices-since-2012-1-5823358
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 22, 2018, 12:04:00 PM
The European Project Comes To An End

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-21/european-project-comes-end
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Rupert on December 23, 2018, 07:11:49 AM
Its not quite like that in France :) 

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on December 24, 2018, 04:45:20 AM
More than 30,000 UK retailers in 'significant' financial distress

Data shows online retailers not immune from shopping slump in lead-up to this Christmas

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/23/high-street-online-uk-retailers-significant-financial-distress-christmas-shopping
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 24, 2018, 11:37:12 AM
Christmas shopping continues to rise year after year. With sales rising over a trillion dollars there seems to no slow down to the amount of spending that Christmas shoppers will make.

https://wearetop10.com/christmas-statistics/
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on December 24, 2018, 05:24:35 PM
> https://wearetop10.com/christmas-statistics/

They just made all of that up.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 24, 2018, 07:32:43 PM
Confusing signals from Washington send markets plunging (https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/24/investing/stock-market-today-dow/index.html)

Quote
Alarmed investors drove the Dow more than 650 points lower in a shortened trading session on Monday. Markets plunged after the Trump administration sent out confusing signals about markets and the economy.

The S&P 500 fell 2.7% and the Nasdaq was off 2.2%. The Dow, which fell 2.9%, and the S&P 500 suffered their biggest Christmas Eve declines ever.

Stocks initially fell on Monday following a statement from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that he had checked on the health of the country's largest banks.

The market recovered late morning, but then slid even lower after President Donald Trump tweeted: "The only problem our economy has is the Fed." Investors are concerned that Trump may fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

That's a 15 month low.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: aaron on December 25, 2018, 02:57:51 PM
Confusing signals from Washington send markets plunging (https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/24/investing/stock-market-today-dow/index.html)
That's a 15 month low.
I think the point of doing the "just checking in" with the bank CEOs & then publicly announcing it was to boost uncertainty rather than boost confidence. Somebody has to eat the loss & the faster it happens while being closely tied to a Fed rate raise the easier it is to blame the Fed & the harder it is for the Fed to raise rates again. Then Trump gets to claim he "saved the world" when he strikes a watered down trade deal with China.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 25, 2018, 04:19:50 PM
Mnuchin f###ed Up
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 25, 2018, 05:29:12 PM
Wow Aaron.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 28, 2018, 02:01:42 PM
California, as home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood, lives and dies with capital gains taxes. In bull markets, when lots of stocks are rising and tech startups are going public, the state is flush. But in bear markets capital gains turn into capital losses and Sacramento’s revenues plunge. Put another way, the state’s top 1% highest-income taxpayers generate about half of personal income taxes. When their incomes fall, tax revenues crater.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on December 28, 2018, 04:52:35 PM
HMV calls in administrators

"...blamed a "tsunami" of retail challenges, including business rate levels and the move to digital."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46699290
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 29, 2018, 12:41:07 AM
California, as home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood, lives and dies with capital gains taxes. In bull markets, when lots of stocks are rising and tech startups are going public, the state is flush. But in bear markets capital gains turn into capital losses and Sacramento’s revenues plunge. Put another way, the state’s top 1% highest-income taxpayers generate about half of personal income taxes. When their incomes fall, tax revenues crater.

Fortunately, we have a good budget reserve ATM. 
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 29, 2018, 01:17:03 PM
LM:

True BUT
California has come a long way to dig itself out of budget deficits, but the state remains on shaky ground due to nearly $400 billion in unfunded liabilities and debt from public pensions, retiree health care and bonds, financial analysts say.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-s-400-billion-debt-worries-analysts-6812264.php
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on December 29, 2018, 07:02:52 PM
California has come a long way to dig itself out of budget deficits, but the state remains on shaky ground due to nearly $400 billion in unfunded liabilities and debt from public pensions, retiree health care and bonds, financial analysts say.

And that only counts state-level liabilities. Our county has clawed its way back into the black, but still struggles. For many years, county workers with 25 years of service were entitled to full pension at 57 years old, which means they have a lot of young retirees. Meanwhile, any supervisor who serves six years (three terms) gets a pension for life. I almost thought about running for supervisor after I found out about that.

My saving grace is that my meager pension from a time as a state employee is from the state of Wisconsin, the only government pension I know of (definitely at the state or federal level) designed to stay solvent from the get go.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: aaron on December 30, 2018, 03:43:39 AM
Wow Aaron.
Tweet-driven headline just in time for a year-end one-day rally...

WSJ: U.S. and China Fleshing Out Trade Deal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-and-china-fleshing-out-trade-deal-11546126975)
Quote
On Saturday, President Trump tweeted that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping had recently talked by phone and made “big progress” in talks, due to conclude on March 1. “Deal is moving along very well,” Mr. Trump tweeted. “If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas and points of dispute.”

But people familiar with the state of negotiations said the president may be overstating how close the two sides are to an agreement. They note Mr. Trump has looked to calm markets, which have gyrated in recent days, in part, because of concern that the trade fight between the U.S. and China could spin out of control.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 30, 2018, 10:01:14 PM
I think you are over estimating his intelligence.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 31, 2018, 02:56:31 AM
Quote
China’s benchmark CSI 300 index will finish the year close to 3,000, down more than 25 per cent from where it started 2018, according to Bloomberg data. The staggering drop outpaced other poor performers: Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 14 per cent, the US S&P 500 was down 8 per cent and the UK’s FTSE 100 fell 13 per cent.

https://www.ft.com/content/50e3e97a-0a86-11e9-9fe8-acdb36967cfc
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on January 01, 2019, 12:53:51 PM
China's industrial profits suffer first annual drop in 3 years, piles pressure on economy

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/67267426.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on January 02, 2019, 02:03:34 PM
Bloomberg News reports that a Federal Reserve Bank of New York gauge puts the chances of a recession at almost 16 percent a year from now, the highest since November 2008.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on January 04, 2019, 03:55:29 AM
Quote
The Dow dropped 660 points, or 2.8%, on Thursday after Apple warned it will badly miss its quarterly sales forecast because of weakening growth and trade tensions in China.
Apple (AAPL), among the world's most widely held stocks, plummeted 10% in its darkest day in six years. The former king of the stock market fell to the fourth-biggest public company, behind Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL).
The news sent shudders through global markets. The Nasdaq plunged 3%, closing back in bear market territory. The S&P 500 shed 2.5%, led lower by tech and industrial stocks. The market ended near the lows of the day.

Even though the market rose slightly on Wednesday, this is still the S&P 500's worst two-day start to a trading year since 2000, according to Refinitiv data.
Beyond Apple, investors were also rattled by the biggest one-month decline in US factory activity since the Great Recession. The closely-watched ISM manufacturing index tumbled to a two-year low, providing further evidence of slowing growth and pain from the US-China trade war. ISM said manufacturing activity is still growing, but suffered a "sharp decline" last month.


https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/03/investing/stock-market-today-apple-dow-jones/index.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on January 05, 2019, 01:29:53 PM
DOW goes up & down.

China has real problems!

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on January 10, 2019, 02:22:23 AM
Retail sales were flat in December, as UK businesses experienced their worst Christmas in a decade, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC).

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46807146
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on January 10, 2019, 02:00:29 PM
Macy's shares crater on holiday sales results, slashed outlook
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/10/macys-shares-crater-12percent-on-holiday-sales-results.html


Ford Europe: Thousands of jobs to be cut in overhaul
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/10/business/ford-europe-jobs/index.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on January 10, 2019, 04:39:22 PM
<added>

We're on a roll.

Jaguar Land Rover confirms 4,500 job cuts - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46822706
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on January 10, 2019, 05:35:02 PM
Yeah, there are so many companies in the process of downsizing.  It's like none of them want to be late to the punch, but collectively they may all end up pulling the economy down faster than it would otherwise.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on January 21, 2019, 12:00:41 PM
China’s economy grew 6.6% in 2018, the lowest pace in 28 years

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/21/china-2018-gdp-china-reports-economic-growth-for-fourth-quarter-year.html

AND they lie about their stats!

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Rupert on January 21, 2019, 06:21:45 PM
This was actually the middle of last year.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/14/rolls-royce-cut-jobs-britain

Aircraft engine maker announces restructuring, with 4,600 jobs to go worldwide

alot of people I know work here. Mate is a fuel cell specialist.....gone.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on January 28, 2019, 04:53:27 PM
Ouch! That's gonna leave a mark.

Tesco says 9,000 jobs 'impacted' in changes to UK business
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/28/tesco-says-9000-jobs-impacted-in-changes-to-uk-business.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on January 28, 2019, 06:22:57 PM
https://techcrunch.com/2019/01/28/chinas-smartphone-shipments-dropped-14-percent-in-2018/


Quote
China’s smartphone shipments dropped 14 percent in 2018
...
Much of what’s at play here is a familiar story all over. A matured market means upgrade cycles have slowed down, as more users are choosing to hold onto handsets for longer. Even more pronounced, however, is a combination of slowed economic growth and lowered purchasing power in the country.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 06, 2019, 11:23:47 PM
Deutsche Bank Says German Economy Is Drifting Toward Recession

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-05/deutsche-bank-says-german-economy-is-drifting-toward-recession
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on February 07, 2019, 11:32:34 AM
TAKE THIS TO THE BANK  8)

Mr. Mackin predicts no recession in the USA in the near future.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 07, 2019, 10:24:09 PM
More bad news: Street sees Q1 profits declining and full-year growth rates cut in half
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/07/more-bad-news-street-sees-q1-profits-declining-and-full-year-growth-rates-cut-in-half.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on February 08, 2019, 12:50:22 AM
My personal feeling is we'll ride this out for about the next year and a half until election time. It'll be rocky here and there but will remain relatively stable overall. Then, I think we'll see the real swing either starting or maybe already starting to be felt around Q1 2021.

This is the timing I'm sorta counting on so, a bit biased maybe.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 08, 2019, 02:05:50 AM
Bank of England sees weakest UK outlook since 2009 on Brexit, global slowdown | Reuters
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-boe/bank-of-england-sees-weakest-outlook-for-uk-since-2009-on-brexit-world-slowdown-idUKKCN1PW1BO
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 09, 2019, 02:55:05 PM
Uh-oh, average 2018 tax refund $$ is down over 8%. 

Filing Season Statistics for Week Ending February 1, 2019 | Internal Revenue Service
https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/filing-season-statistics-for-week-ending-february-1-2019
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on February 09, 2019, 04:36:28 PM
8% is huge.  The 2018 tax reform is doing its damage.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 09, 2019, 06:07:44 PM
>huge

I've read in the past that a large number of families use their tax refund as a forced savings account. Add to that the more recent reports  finding that 40% of the nation can't scrape up $400 in an emergency and you've got a recipe for a potentially massive downturn in consumer sentiment and spending. Hence, this post under "Recession."
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: DrCool on February 11, 2019, 05:53:58 PM
>>tax refund as a forced savings account

I am HORRIBLE at saving. I have a few different services that automatically take some money and tuck it away but for the most part if it is in my account I spend it. It is nice getting a big chunk all at once in the spring to do stuff like pay for a vacation, buy furniture, tires for the van, etc. that cost more than a couple hundred bucks. I haven't updated my withholding since I started my current job 5 years ago and we have added 2 kids.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 12, 2019, 03:25:47 PM
The economy is like Jenga...

Main Street pares back its economic outlook - Axios
https://www.axios.com/main-street-expectations-for-economy-drop-1852609a-2846-4a00-96df-f65b60289eff.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 13, 2019, 12:03:29 AM
A record number of Americans are 90 days behind on their car payments
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/12/a-record-number-of-americans-are-90-days-behind-on-their-car-payments.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on February 13, 2019, 12:29:44 AM
Came to post that. It seems they are cherry picking the numbers, going by this:

https://www.finder.com/car-loan-statistics

Since 2010 we've increased a million accounts behind 90 days, but we've grown about 30 million accounts total. So, overall it was about 8% of total loans then and the new loans are less than 4%, bringing the overall to around 6.5 currently.

Seems about right to me?
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on February 13, 2019, 10:46:22 PM
U.S. National Debt Hits Record $22 Trillion (https://www.npr.org/2019/02/13/694199256/u-s-national-debt-hits-22-trillion-a-new-record-thats-predicted-to-fall)

Quote

The U.S. government's public debt is now more than $22 trillion — the highest it has ever been. The Treasury Department data comes as tax revenue has fallen and federal spending continues to rise. The new debt level reflects a rise of more than $2 trillion from the day President Trump took office in 2017.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on February 14, 2019, 11:38:18 AM
Both parties MUST stop spending money we do not have.

It will be painful BUT must be done!
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 14, 2019, 01:39:56 PM
We're blowing through a couple of bad tipping points lately.... climate, budget.

Quote
By 2020, interest will cost the federal government more than Medicaid. In 2023, the federal government will spend more on interest than defense. In 2025, interest spending will outpace spending on all discretionary programs, excluding defense. Those estimates come from the Congressional Budget Office.

That’s a best-case scenario. The CBO projections don’t include the ramifications from an economic downturn in the next 10 years, which is a virtual certainty. Expenses, such as food stamps and unemployment benefits, would increase. Revenues, especially income taxes, would drop. That would explode the debt at a greater rate, as the government relies on even more deficit spending to make up difference.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-us-will-soon-spend-more-on-interest-than-defense-1535577/
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 14, 2019, 02:40:48 PM
Humbug holidays: US retail sales drop 1.2 pct. in December
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/humbug-holidays-us-retail-sales-drop-12-pct-61072690

US wholesale prices dip 0.1 percent in January
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-wholesale-prices-dip-01-percent-january-61072724

US unemployment claims rise by 4,000 to 239,000
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-unemployment-claims-rise-4000-239000-61072761
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on February 14, 2019, 02:49:59 PM
Germany narrowly avoids recession; US retail sales slide


Yes, Germany.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/feb/14/germany-economy-recession-gdp-eurozone-growt-trade-talks-business-live
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 15, 2019, 01:34:17 AM
Climate disasters cost $650 billion over 3 years: Morgan Stanley
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/14/climate-disasters-cost-650-billion-over-3-years-morgan-stanley.html

Quote
North America absorbed two-thirds of the global cost of climate disasters over the last three years, Morgan Stanley says. At $415 billion, the price of the disasters is equal to 0.66 percent of North America's GDP
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 16, 2019, 03:36:41 PM
Feb 15, 2019: New York Fed Staff Nowcast
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on February 16, 2019, 09:06:38 PM
> https://wearetop10.com/christmas-statistics/

They just made all of that up.

......

Humbug holidays: US retail sales drop 1.2 pct. in December
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/humbug-holidays-us-retail-sales-drop-12-pct-61072690

Your bullshit filter was working well there Mark.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 18, 2019, 03:29:19 PM
No recession but global growth will slow down, Janus Henderson says
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/18/no-recession-but-global-growth-will-slow-down-janus-henderson-says.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 19, 2019, 09:03:50 PM
Federal data:

"Throughout much of the Midwest, U.S. farmers are filing for chapter 12 bankruptcy protection at levels not seen for at least a decade"

Farm Belt Bankruptcies Are Soaring - WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-one-here-is-gonna-kick-my-buttfarm-belt-bankruptcies-are-soaring-11549468759
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 23, 2019, 08:42:27 PM
Big in my feeds.

Average tax refund down 17 percent, IRS reports - POLITICO
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/22/irs-tax-refunds-2019-1207283
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on February 23, 2019, 11:03:36 PM
I find this one a little odd.  No one seems to be complaining about the 21% flat tax on C corps and how that will translate into more tax burden for individuals and greater debt burden for future generations.  Yet, people are getting angry because they are not having more taxes withheld and then given back to them as a refund.  I guess the average American is incapable of fiscal discipline or thinking things through very much. 
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on February 24, 2019, 07:24:57 AM
>Your bullshit filter was working well there Mark.

It's a curse not a power.

"...the line, sometimes wrongly attributed to Paxman, that he approaches every interview by asking of himself the question: "Why is this lying ba*tard lying to me?"

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2005/jan/31/mondaymediasection.politicsandthemedia

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 25, 2019, 08:23:52 PM
Three-fourths of business economists expect a recession by 2021, survey finds
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nabe-economic-policy-survey-171131067.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Brad on February 26, 2019, 12:23:09 AM
>2021

Well we're about due for another one about then anyway.  Boom - Bust - Boom - Bust.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on February 26, 2019, 06:44:32 PM
Housing will not cause the 2019 recession says the NYT....

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/19/business/economy/housing-recession.html

Quote
Housing Is Already in a Slump. So It (Probably) Can’t Cause a Recession.

A decline in residential real estate has led several recessions. With construction still in a multiyear slump, it seems unlikely to be the culprit this year.


The United States has had 11 recessions since the end of World War II. All but two were preceded by a big decline in the housing market.

Inside that bit of trivia lie some fundamental insights into housing’s outsize role in the business cycle, along with clues to suggest that the economy is on firmer footing than the increasingly pessimistic forecasts make it seem. The gist is this: The United States may or may not enter a recession this year, but if it does, housing is unlikely to be the cause, because it never really recovered in the first place.



Quote
Much of the problem is that while job growth has been strong, home prices have gone up faster than incomes.

Prices have gone up so far so fast that even markets previously considered affordable are beyond the reach of many buyers. Home prices have risen by about 50 percent since 2012, according to Zillow, and many of the more affordable markets have shot up even faster. In Phoenix, home values have doubled since 2012, not adjusted for inflation. The Denver market is up 90 percent, Atlanta 84 percent, Nashville 78 percent and Dallas 76 percent. If people can’t afford a home in Texas, where can they?
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on February 27, 2019, 02:32:27 AM
Fiat Chrysler laying off more than 1,300 workers at Belvidere Jeep plant (https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-fiat-chrysler-layoffs-belvidere-jeep-plant-20190226-story.html)


Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on February 27, 2019, 01:25:08 PM
On the other hand LM:
FCA announced Tuesday that it plans to build a new factory in Detroit. The factory won't be brand-new, but rather will be built on the site of the company's existing Mack Avenue Engine Complex, with the conversion process costing $1.6 billion. The plant is earmarked to build the next-generation Jeep Grand Cherokee and Jeep's long-awaited three-row SUV.

FCA says the factory would also be used to build plug-in hybrid variants, as well as offering the "flexibility" for pure-electric versions of those vehicles down the road. Construction on the plant is intended to begin by the end of the second quarter of this year, with the first three-row SUVs set to roll off the line by the end of 2020 and the next-gen Grand Cherokee arriving in the first half of 2021. The plant conversion is expected to add 3,850 jobs.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 01, 2019, 04:35:53 PM
drip, drip, drip...

US consumer spending fell sharp 0.5 percent in December | Miami Herald
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article226972754.html


Toyota, Fiat Chrysler U.S. auto sales fall in February | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-auto-sales/toyota-fiat-chrysler-u-s-auto-sales-fall-in-february-idUSKCN1QI4UW
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on March 05, 2019, 12:36:21 PM
Retail Apocalypse Is Heating Up in 2019

Major Stores Currently on Deathwatch:

https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-apocalypse-heating-2019-major-181546342.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 07, 2019, 02:47:11 PM
"The roll call of closings continued Wednesday, with discount retailer Dollar Tree’s announcement that it would close up to 390 Family Dollar locations this year. As of mid-February, retailers had announced 2,187 store closings in the United States this year, according to Coresight Research."

PDF:
https://coresight.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/US-Store-Closures-No-Light-at-the-End-of-the-Tunnel-in-2019-Feb-13-20191-1.pdf

===========

Note shift to offshore
Ocwen planning to lay off more than 2,000 mortgage employees
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/48369-ocwen-planning-to-lay-off-more-than-2000-mortgage-employees

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 07, 2019, 04:46:09 PM
>yes, Germany

ECB Injects More Stimulus as Draghi Reveals Slashed Forecasts - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-07/draghi-slashes-ecb-outlook-as-officials-inject-more-stimulus
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 07, 2019, 11:52:47 PM
Aaackk!

More than 1,100 store closures were announced in a single day as fallout from the retail apocalypse picks up steam - SFGate

https://www.sfgate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/More-than-1-100-store-closures-were-announced-in-13671313.php

Charlotte Russe, Family Dollar, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Chico's announced more than 1,100 store closings in total over the course of 24 hours this week.
The news comes one week after JCPenney, Gap, Victoria's Secret, and Tesla announced that they would close more than 300 stores.
These announcements bring the total number of planned closures this year to more than 5,300.

More than 5,300 stores are closing in 2019 as the retail apocalypse drags on — here's the full list

https://www.businessinsider.com/stores-closing-in-2019-list-2019-3?utm_source=hearst&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=allverticals

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on March 08, 2019, 02:47:46 AM
A record 7 million Americans are 3 months behind on their car payments, a red flag for the economy (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/02/12/record-million-americans-are-months-behind-their-car-payments-red-flag-economy/)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: I, Brian on March 08, 2019, 08:31:58 PM
Another one today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47499326

Btw, a check on the DJI over the past 5 days doesn't look good: https://www.google.co.uk/search?site=finance&tbm=fin&q=INDEXDJX:+.DJI#scso=_yNCCXO6IMOedlwTOybj4CA2:0
There was a big drop toward the end of December, enough for news outlets to report a bear market. With no good financial news to report, I figure we'll see that come to pass over this year. The question is, if so, how far with the DJI fall? More importantly - when is the best market opportunity that follows after? :)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 08, 2019, 08:43:46 PM
> how far with the DJI fall?

I'm 20-30% cash position right now.  50% in tax-exempt bonds.  Even at that, the equities have been putting the portfolio into wild mood swings.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 10, 2019, 07:18:35 PM
US payrolls shock suggests dawn of long forecasted slowdown - Independent.ie
https://www.independent.ie/business/world/us-payrolls-shock-suggests-dawn-of-long-forecasted-slowdown-37896196.html

I'll post this 'cause the last US payroll numbers have been in my feeds with apocalyptic headlines since they came out.  I think they'll be revised upward. If not, we've hit the wall.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on March 10, 2019, 07:53:12 PM
I think there are some major sinkholes under the foundation that aren't uncovered yet.

We had rounds like this before the 2008 recession.  We all knew that one was coming ahead of time too.  For some reason a lot of investors didn't want to recognize it then either.  Unfortunately, many people I knew sold off near the bottom and lost years of gains. Those folks would have been better off just leaving everything where it was. 

This thing is coming, might as well tighten up before the crash and buy in after the drop -- look at it as an opportunity with your investments.  The worst thing to do is react after it hits hard.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on March 11, 2019, 11:39:48 AM
"This thing is coming"

TRUE

2020???

3/11/2019
While there's a chance that a US-China trade deal, the Fed's "pause", and a fading of the pressures plaguing Europe might stave off a global recession, Bloomberg economists Dan Hanson and Tom Orlik said the risks appear to be tilted toward the downside. "The risk is that the downward momentum will be self-sustaining."
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on March 11, 2019, 09:08:51 PM
Oh it's definitely coming. We are overdue.

Inside - 2020, outside, 2022. IMFO
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 13, 2019, 08:32:52 PM
>??

Economy at "very real risk" of entering recession in late 2020
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/13/economy-at-very-real-risk-of-entering-recession-in-late-2020-ucla.html