Th3 Core

Why We Are Here => Economics & Investing => Topic started by: littleman on December 21, 2018, 09:43:18 PM

Title: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 21, 2018, 09:43:18 PM
Dow sinks again, putting December performance at risk as the worst since 1931 (https://www.pennlive.com/news/2018/12/dow-sinks-again-putting-december-performance-at-risk-as-the-worst-since-1931.html)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Rupert on December 22, 2018, 08:47:24 AM
UK house prices set to tumble:
https://www.hertsad.co.uk/property/rightmove-reports-biggest-fall-in-house-prices-since-2012-1-5823358
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 22, 2018, 12:04:00 PM
The European Project Comes To An End

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-21/european-project-comes-end
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Rupert on December 23, 2018, 07:11:49 AM
Its not quite like that in France :) 

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on December 24, 2018, 04:45:20 AM
More than 30,000 UK retailers in 'significant' financial distress

Data shows online retailers not immune from shopping slump in lead-up to this Christmas

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/23/high-street-online-uk-retailers-significant-financial-distress-christmas-shopping
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 24, 2018, 11:37:12 AM
Christmas shopping continues to rise year after year. With sales rising over a trillion dollars there seems to no slow down to the amount of spending that Christmas shoppers will make.

https://wearetop10.com/christmas-statistics/
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on December 24, 2018, 05:24:35 PM
> https://wearetop10.com/christmas-statistics/

They just made all of that up.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 24, 2018, 07:32:43 PM
Confusing signals from Washington send markets plunging (https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/24/investing/stock-market-today-dow/index.html)

Quote
Alarmed investors drove the Dow more than 650 points lower in a shortened trading session on Monday. Markets plunged after the Trump administration sent out confusing signals about markets and the economy.

The S&P 500 fell 2.7% and the Nasdaq was off 2.2%. The Dow, which fell 2.9%, and the S&P 500 suffered their biggest Christmas Eve declines ever.

Stocks initially fell on Monday following a statement from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that he had checked on the health of the country's largest banks.

The market recovered late morning, but then slid even lower after President Donald Trump tweeted: "The only problem our economy has is the Fed." Investors are concerned that Trump may fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

That's a 15 month low.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: aaron on December 25, 2018, 02:57:51 PM
Confusing signals from Washington send markets plunging (https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/24/investing/stock-market-today-dow/index.html)
That's a 15 month low.
I think the point of doing the "just checking in" with the bank CEOs & then publicly announcing it was to boost uncertainty rather than boost confidence. Somebody has to eat the loss & the faster it happens while being closely tied to a Fed rate raise the easier it is to blame the Fed & the harder it is for the Fed to raise rates again. Then Trump gets to claim he "saved the world" when he strikes a watered down trade deal with China.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 25, 2018, 04:19:50 PM
Mnuchin f###ed Up
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 25, 2018, 05:29:12 PM
Wow Aaron.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 28, 2018, 02:01:42 PM
California, as home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood, lives and dies with capital gains taxes. In bull markets, when lots of stocks are rising and tech startups are going public, the state is flush. But in bear markets capital gains turn into capital losses and Sacramento’s revenues plunge. Put another way, the state’s top 1% highest-income taxpayers generate about half of personal income taxes. When their incomes fall, tax revenues crater.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on December 28, 2018, 04:52:35 PM
HMV calls in administrators

"...blamed a "tsunami" of retail challenges, including business rate levels and the move to digital."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46699290
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 29, 2018, 12:41:07 AM
California, as home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood, lives and dies with capital gains taxes. In bull markets, when lots of stocks are rising and tech startups are going public, the state is flush. But in bear markets capital gains turn into capital losses and Sacramento’s revenues plunge. Put another way, the state’s top 1% highest-income taxpayers generate about half of personal income taxes. When their incomes fall, tax revenues crater.

Fortunately, we have a good budget reserve ATM. 
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 29, 2018, 01:17:03 PM
LM:

True BUT
California has come a long way to dig itself out of budget deficits, but the state remains on shaky ground due to nearly $400 billion in unfunded liabilities and debt from public pensions, retiree health care and bonds, financial analysts say.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-s-400-billion-debt-worries-analysts-6812264.php
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on December 29, 2018, 07:02:52 PM
California has come a long way to dig itself out of budget deficits, but the state remains on shaky ground due to nearly $400 billion in unfunded liabilities and debt from public pensions, retiree health care and bonds, financial analysts say.

And that only counts state-level liabilities. Our county has clawed its way back into the black, but still struggles. For many years, county workers with 25 years of service were entitled to full pension at 57 years old, which means they have a lot of young retirees. Meanwhile, any supervisor who serves six years (three terms) gets a pension for life. I almost thought about running for supervisor after I found out about that.

My saving grace is that my meager pension from a time as a state employee is from the state of Wisconsin, the only government pension I know of (definitely at the state or federal level) designed to stay solvent from the get go.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: aaron on December 30, 2018, 03:43:39 AM
Wow Aaron.
Tweet-driven headline just in time for a year-end one-day rally...

WSJ: U.S. and China Fleshing Out Trade Deal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-and-china-fleshing-out-trade-deal-11546126975)
Quote
On Saturday, President Trump tweeted that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping had recently talked by phone and made “big progress” in talks, due to conclude on March 1. “Deal is moving along very well,” Mr. Trump tweeted. “If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas and points of dispute.”

But people familiar with the state of negotiations said the president may be overstating how close the two sides are to an agreement. They note Mr. Trump has looked to calm markets, which have gyrated in recent days, in part, because of concern that the trade fight between the U.S. and China could spin out of control.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 30, 2018, 10:01:14 PM
I think you are over estimating his intelligence.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 31, 2018, 02:56:31 AM
Quote
China’s benchmark CSI 300 index will finish the year close to 3,000, down more than 25 per cent from where it started 2018, according to Bloomberg data. The staggering drop outpaced other poor performers: Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 14 per cent, the US S&P 500 was down 8 per cent and the UK’s FTSE 100 fell 13 per cent.

https://www.ft.com/content/50e3e97a-0a86-11e9-9fe8-acdb36967cfc
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on January 01, 2019, 12:53:51 PM
China's industrial profits suffer first annual drop in 3 years, piles pressure on economy

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/67267426.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on January 02, 2019, 02:03:34 PM
Bloomberg News reports that a Federal Reserve Bank of New York gauge puts the chances of a recession at almost 16 percent a year from now, the highest since November 2008.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on January 04, 2019, 03:55:29 AM
Quote
The Dow dropped 660 points, or 2.8%, on Thursday after Apple warned it will badly miss its quarterly sales forecast because of weakening growth and trade tensions in China.
Apple (AAPL), among the world's most widely held stocks, plummeted 10% in its darkest day in six years. The former king of the stock market fell to the fourth-biggest public company, behind Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL).
The news sent shudders through global markets. The Nasdaq plunged 3%, closing back in bear market territory. The S&P 500 shed 2.5%, led lower by tech and industrial stocks. The market ended near the lows of the day.

Even though the market rose slightly on Wednesday, this is still the S&P 500's worst two-day start to a trading year since 2000, according to Refinitiv data.
Beyond Apple, investors were also rattled by the biggest one-month decline in US factory activity since the Great Recession. The closely-watched ISM manufacturing index tumbled to a two-year low, providing further evidence of slowing growth and pain from the US-China trade war. ISM said manufacturing activity is still growing, but suffered a "sharp decline" last month.


https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/03/investing/stock-market-today-apple-dow-jones/index.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on January 05, 2019, 01:29:53 PM
DOW goes up & down.

China has real problems!

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on January 10, 2019, 02:22:23 AM
Retail sales were flat in December, as UK businesses experienced their worst Christmas in a decade, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC).

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46807146
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on January 10, 2019, 02:00:29 PM
Macy's shares crater on holiday sales results, slashed outlook
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/10/macys-shares-crater-12percent-on-holiday-sales-results.html


Ford Europe: Thousands of jobs to be cut in overhaul
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/10/business/ford-europe-jobs/index.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on January 10, 2019, 04:39:22 PM
<added>

We're on a roll.

Jaguar Land Rover confirms 4,500 job cuts - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46822706
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on January 10, 2019, 05:35:02 PM
Yeah, there are so many companies in the process of downsizing.  It's like none of them want to be late to the punch, but collectively they may all end up pulling the economy down faster than it would otherwise.