Th3 Core

Why We Are Here => Economics & Investing => Topic started by: littleman on December 21, 2018, 09:43:18 PM

Title: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 21, 2018, 09:43:18 PM
Dow sinks again, putting December performance at risk as the worst since 1931 (https://www.pennlive.com/news/2018/12/dow-sinks-again-putting-december-performance-at-risk-as-the-worst-since-1931.html)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Rupert on December 22, 2018, 08:47:24 AM
UK house prices set to tumble:
https://www.hertsad.co.uk/property/rightmove-reports-biggest-fall-in-house-prices-since-2012-1-5823358
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 22, 2018, 12:04:00 PM
The European Project Comes To An End

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-21/european-project-comes-end
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Rupert on December 23, 2018, 07:11:49 AM
Its not quite like that in France :) 

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on December 24, 2018, 04:45:20 AM
More than 30,000 UK retailers in 'significant' financial distress

Data shows online retailers not immune from shopping slump in lead-up to this Christmas

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/23/high-street-online-uk-retailers-significant-financial-distress-christmas-shopping
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 24, 2018, 11:37:12 AM
Christmas shopping continues to rise year after year. With sales rising over a trillion dollars there seems to no slow down to the amount of spending that Christmas shoppers will make.

https://wearetop10.com/christmas-statistics/
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on December 24, 2018, 05:24:35 PM
> https://wearetop10.com/christmas-statistics/

They just made all of that up.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 24, 2018, 07:32:43 PM
Confusing signals from Washington send markets plunging (https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/24/investing/stock-market-today-dow/index.html)

Quote
Alarmed investors drove the Dow more than 650 points lower in a shortened trading session on Monday. Markets plunged after the Trump administration sent out confusing signals about markets and the economy.

The S&P 500 fell 2.7% and the Nasdaq was off 2.2%. The Dow, which fell 2.9%, and the S&P 500 suffered their biggest Christmas Eve declines ever.

Stocks initially fell on Monday following a statement from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that he had checked on the health of the country's largest banks.

The market recovered late morning, but then slid even lower after President Donald Trump tweeted: "The only problem our economy has is the Fed." Investors are concerned that Trump may fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

That's a 15 month low.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: aaron on December 25, 2018, 02:57:51 PM
Confusing signals from Washington send markets plunging (https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/24/investing/stock-market-today-dow/index.html)
That's a 15 month low.
I think the point of doing the "just checking in" with the bank CEOs & then publicly announcing it was to boost uncertainty rather than boost confidence. Somebody has to eat the loss & the faster it happens while being closely tied to a Fed rate raise the easier it is to blame the Fed & the harder it is for the Fed to raise rates again. Then Trump gets to claim he "saved the world" when he strikes a watered down trade deal with China.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 25, 2018, 04:19:50 PM
Mnuchin f###ed Up
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 25, 2018, 05:29:12 PM
Wow Aaron.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 28, 2018, 02:01:42 PM
California, as home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood, lives and dies with capital gains taxes. In bull markets, when lots of stocks are rising and tech startups are going public, the state is flush. But in bear markets capital gains turn into capital losses and Sacramento’s revenues plunge. Put another way, the state’s top 1% highest-income taxpayers generate about half of personal income taxes. When their incomes fall, tax revenues crater.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on December 28, 2018, 04:52:35 PM
HMV calls in administrators

"...blamed a "tsunami" of retail challenges, including business rate levels and the move to digital."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46699290
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 29, 2018, 12:41:07 AM
California, as home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood, lives and dies with capital gains taxes. In bull markets, when lots of stocks are rising and tech startups are going public, the state is flush. But in bear markets capital gains turn into capital losses and Sacramento’s revenues plunge. Put another way, the state’s top 1% highest-income taxpayers generate about half of personal income taxes. When their incomes fall, tax revenues crater.

Fortunately, we have a good budget reserve ATM. 
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 29, 2018, 01:17:03 PM
LM:

True BUT
California has come a long way to dig itself out of budget deficits, but the state remains on shaky ground due to nearly $400 billion in unfunded liabilities and debt from public pensions, retiree health care and bonds, financial analysts say.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-s-400-billion-debt-worries-analysts-6812264.php
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on December 29, 2018, 07:02:52 PM
California has come a long way to dig itself out of budget deficits, but the state remains on shaky ground due to nearly $400 billion in unfunded liabilities and debt from public pensions, retiree health care and bonds, financial analysts say.

And that only counts state-level liabilities. Our county has clawed its way back into the black, but still struggles. For many years, county workers with 25 years of service were entitled to full pension at 57 years old, which means they have a lot of young retirees. Meanwhile, any supervisor who serves six years (three terms) gets a pension for life. I almost thought about running for supervisor after I found out about that.

My saving grace is that my meager pension from a time as a state employee is from the state of Wisconsin, the only government pension I know of (definitely at the state or federal level) designed to stay solvent from the get go.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: aaron on December 30, 2018, 03:43:39 AM
Wow Aaron.
Tweet-driven headline just in time for a year-end one-day rally...

WSJ: U.S. and China Fleshing Out Trade Deal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-and-china-fleshing-out-trade-deal-11546126975)
Quote
On Saturday, President Trump tweeted that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping had recently talked by phone and made “big progress” in talks, due to conclude on March 1. “Deal is moving along very well,” Mr. Trump tweeted. “If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas and points of dispute.”

But people familiar with the state of negotiations said the president may be overstating how close the two sides are to an agreement. They note Mr. Trump has looked to calm markets, which have gyrated in recent days, in part, because of concern that the trade fight between the U.S. and China could spin out of control.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 30, 2018, 10:01:14 PM
I think you are over estimating his intelligence.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 31, 2018, 02:56:31 AM
Quote
China’s benchmark CSI 300 index will finish the year close to 3,000, down more than 25 per cent from where it started 2018, according to Bloomberg data. The staggering drop outpaced other poor performers: Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 14 per cent, the US S&P 500 was down 8 per cent and the UK’s FTSE 100 fell 13 per cent.

https://www.ft.com/content/50e3e97a-0a86-11e9-9fe8-acdb36967cfc
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on January 01, 2019, 12:53:51 PM
China's industrial profits suffer first annual drop in 3 years, piles pressure on economy

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/67267426.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on January 02, 2019, 02:03:34 PM
Bloomberg News reports that a Federal Reserve Bank of New York gauge puts the chances of a recession at almost 16 percent a year from now, the highest since November 2008.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on January 04, 2019, 03:55:29 AM
Quote
The Dow dropped 660 points, or 2.8%, on Thursday after Apple warned it will badly miss its quarterly sales forecast because of weakening growth and trade tensions in China.
Apple (AAPL), among the world's most widely held stocks, plummeted 10% in its darkest day in six years. The former king of the stock market fell to the fourth-biggest public company, behind Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL).
The news sent shudders through global markets. The Nasdaq plunged 3%, closing back in bear market territory. The S&P 500 shed 2.5%, led lower by tech and industrial stocks. The market ended near the lows of the day.

Even though the market rose slightly on Wednesday, this is still the S&P 500's worst two-day start to a trading year since 2000, according to Refinitiv data.
Beyond Apple, investors were also rattled by the biggest one-month decline in US factory activity since the Great Recession. The closely-watched ISM manufacturing index tumbled to a two-year low, providing further evidence of slowing growth and pain from the US-China trade war. ISM said manufacturing activity is still growing, but suffered a "sharp decline" last month.


https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/03/investing/stock-market-today-apple-dow-jones/index.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on January 05, 2019, 01:29:53 PM
DOW goes up & down.

China has real problems!

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on January 10, 2019, 02:22:23 AM
Retail sales were flat in December, as UK businesses experienced their worst Christmas in a decade, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC).

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46807146
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on January 10, 2019, 02:00:29 PM
Macy's shares crater on holiday sales results, slashed outlook
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/10/macys-shares-crater-12percent-on-holiday-sales-results.html


Ford Europe: Thousands of jobs to be cut in overhaul
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/10/business/ford-europe-jobs/index.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on January 10, 2019, 04:39:22 PM
<added>

We're on a roll.

Jaguar Land Rover confirms 4,500 job cuts - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46822706
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on January 10, 2019, 05:35:02 PM
Yeah, there are so many companies in the process of downsizing.  It's like none of them want to be late to the punch, but collectively they may all end up pulling the economy down faster than it would otherwise.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on January 21, 2019, 12:00:41 PM
China’s economy grew 6.6% in 2018, the lowest pace in 28 years

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/21/china-2018-gdp-china-reports-economic-growth-for-fourth-quarter-year.html

AND they lie about their stats!

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Rupert on January 21, 2019, 06:21:45 PM
This was actually the middle of last year.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/14/rolls-royce-cut-jobs-britain

Aircraft engine maker announces restructuring, with 4,600 jobs to go worldwide

alot of people I know work here. Mate is a fuel cell specialist.....gone.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on January 28, 2019, 04:53:27 PM
Ouch! That's gonna leave a mark.

Tesco says 9,000 jobs 'impacted' in changes to UK business
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/28/tesco-says-9000-jobs-impacted-in-changes-to-uk-business.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on January 28, 2019, 06:22:57 PM
https://techcrunch.com/2019/01/28/chinas-smartphone-shipments-dropped-14-percent-in-2018/


Quote
China’s smartphone shipments dropped 14 percent in 2018
...
Much of what’s at play here is a familiar story all over. A matured market means upgrade cycles have slowed down, as more users are choosing to hold onto handsets for longer. Even more pronounced, however, is a combination of slowed economic growth and lowered purchasing power in the country.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 06, 2019, 11:23:47 PM
Deutsche Bank Says German Economy Is Drifting Toward Recession

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-05/deutsche-bank-says-german-economy-is-drifting-toward-recession
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on February 07, 2019, 11:32:34 AM
TAKE THIS TO THE BANK  8)

Mr. Mackin predicts no recession in the USA in the near future.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 07, 2019, 10:24:09 PM
More bad news: Street sees Q1 profits declining and full-year growth rates cut in half
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/07/more-bad-news-street-sees-q1-profits-declining-and-full-year-growth-rates-cut-in-half.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on February 08, 2019, 12:50:22 AM
My personal feeling is we'll ride this out for about the next year and a half until election time. It'll be rocky here and there but will remain relatively stable overall. Then, I think we'll see the real swing either starting or maybe already starting to be felt around Q1 2021.

This is the timing I'm sorta counting on so, a bit biased maybe.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 08, 2019, 02:05:50 AM
Bank of England sees weakest UK outlook since 2009 on Brexit, global slowdown | Reuters
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-boe/bank-of-england-sees-weakest-outlook-for-uk-since-2009-on-brexit-world-slowdown-idUKKCN1PW1BO
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 09, 2019, 02:55:05 PM
Uh-oh, average 2018 tax refund $$ is down over 8%. 

Filing Season Statistics for Week Ending February 1, 2019 | Internal Revenue Service
https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/filing-season-statistics-for-week-ending-february-1-2019
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on February 09, 2019, 04:36:28 PM
8% is huge.  The 2018 tax reform is doing its damage.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 09, 2019, 06:07:44 PM
>huge

I've read in the past that a large number of families use their tax refund as a forced savings account. Add to that the more recent reports  finding that 40% of the nation can't scrape up $400 in an emergency and you've got a recipe for a potentially massive downturn in consumer sentiment and spending. Hence, this post under "Recession."
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: DrCool on February 11, 2019, 05:53:58 PM
>>tax refund as a forced savings account

I am HORRIBLE at saving. I have a few different services that automatically take some money and tuck it away but for the most part if it is in my account I spend it. It is nice getting a big chunk all at once in the spring to do stuff like pay for a vacation, buy furniture, tires for the van, etc. that cost more than a couple hundred bucks. I haven't updated my withholding since I started my current job 5 years ago and we have added 2 kids.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 12, 2019, 03:25:47 PM
The economy is like Jenga...

Main Street pares back its economic outlook - Axios
https://www.axios.com/main-street-expectations-for-economy-drop-1852609a-2846-4a00-96df-f65b60289eff.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 13, 2019, 12:03:29 AM
A record number of Americans are 90 days behind on their car payments
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/12/a-record-number-of-americans-are-90-days-behind-on-their-car-payments.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on February 13, 2019, 12:29:44 AM
Came to post that. It seems they are cherry picking the numbers, going by this:

https://www.finder.com/car-loan-statistics

Since 2010 we've increased a million accounts behind 90 days, but we've grown about 30 million accounts total. So, overall it was about 8% of total loans then and the new loans are less than 4%, bringing the overall to around 6.5 currently.

Seems about right to me?
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on February 13, 2019, 10:46:22 PM
U.S. National Debt Hits Record $22 Trillion (https://www.npr.org/2019/02/13/694199256/u-s-national-debt-hits-22-trillion-a-new-record-thats-predicted-to-fall)

Quote

The U.S. government's public debt is now more than $22 trillion — the highest it has ever been. The Treasury Department data comes as tax revenue has fallen and federal spending continues to rise. The new debt level reflects a rise of more than $2 trillion from the day President Trump took office in 2017.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on February 14, 2019, 11:38:18 AM
Both parties MUST stop spending money we do not have.

It will be painful BUT must be done!
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 14, 2019, 01:39:56 PM
We're blowing through a couple of bad tipping points lately.... climate, budget.

Quote
By 2020, interest will cost the federal government more than Medicaid. In 2023, the federal government will spend more on interest than defense. In 2025, interest spending will outpace spending on all discretionary programs, excluding defense. Those estimates come from the Congressional Budget Office.

That’s a best-case scenario. The CBO projections don’t include the ramifications from an economic downturn in the next 10 years, which is a virtual certainty. Expenses, such as food stamps and unemployment benefits, would increase. Revenues, especially income taxes, would drop. That would explode the debt at a greater rate, as the government relies on even more deficit spending to make up difference.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-us-will-soon-spend-more-on-interest-than-defense-1535577/
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 14, 2019, 02:40:48 PM
Humbug holidays: US retail sales drop 1.2 pct. in December
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/humbug-holidays-us-retail-sales-drop-12-pct-61072690

US wholesale prices dip 0.1 percent in January
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-wholesale-prices-dip-01-percent-january-61072724

US unemployment claims rise by 4,000 to 239,000
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-unemployment-claims-rise-4000-239000-61072761
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on February 14, 2019, 02:49:59 PM
Germany narrowly avoids recession; US retail sales slide


Yes, Germany.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/feb/14/germany-economy-recession-gdp-eurozone-growt-trade-talks-business-live
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 15, 2019, 01:34:17 AM
Climate disasters cost $650 billion over 3 years: Morgan Stanley
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/14/climate-disasters-cost-650-billion-over-3-years-morgan-stanley.html

Quote
North America absorbed two-thirds of the global cost of climate disasters over the last three years, Morgan Stanley says. At $415 billion, the price of the disasters is equal to 0.66 percent of North America's GDP
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 16, 2019, 03:36:41 PM
Feb 15, 2019: New York Fed Staff Nowcast
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on February 16, 2019, 09:06:38 PM
> https://wearetop10.com/christmas-statistics/

They just made all of that up.

......

Humbug holidays: US retail sales drop 1.2 pct. in December
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/humbug-holidays-us-retail-sales-drop-12-pct-61072690

Your bullshit filter was working well there Mark.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 18, 2019, 03:29:19 PM
No recession but global growth will slow down, Janus Henderson says
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/18/no-recession-but-global-growth-will-slow-down-janus-henderson-says.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 19, 2019, 09:03:50 PM
Federal data:

"Throughout much of the Midwest, U.S. farmers are filing for chapter 12 bankruptcy protection at levels not seen for at least a decade"

Farm Belt Bankruptcies Are Soaring - WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-one-here-is-gonna-kick-my-buttfarm-belt-bankruptcies-are-soaring-11549468759
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 23, 2019, 08:42:27 PM
Big in my feeds.

Average tax refund down 17 percent, IRS reports - POLITICO
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/22/irs-tax-refunds-2019-1207283
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on February 23, 2019, 11:03:36 PM
I find this one a little odd.  No one seems to be complaining about the 21% flat tax on C corps and how that will translate into more tax burden for individuals and greater debt burden for future generations.  Yet, people are getting angry because they are not having more taxes withheld and then given back to them as a refund.  I guess the average American is incapable of fiscal discipline or thinking things through very much. 
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on February 24, 2019, 07:24:57 AM
>Your bullshit filter was working well there Mark.

It's a curse not a power.

"...the line, sometimes wrongly attributed to Paxman, that he approaches every interview by asking of himself the question: "Why is this lying ba*tard lying to me?"

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2005/jan/31/mondaymediasection.politicsandthemedia

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 25, 2019, 08:23:52 PM
Three-fourths of business economists expect a recession by 2021, survey finds
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nabe-economic-policy-survey-171131067.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Brad on February 26, 2019, 12:23:09 AM
>2021

Well we're about due for another one about then anyway.  Boom - Bust - Boom - Bust.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on February 26, 2019, 06:44:32 PM
Housing will not cause the 2019 recession says the NYT....

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/19/business/economy/housing-recession.html

Quote
Housing Is Already in a Slump. So It (Probably) Can’t Cause a Recession.

A decline in residential real estate has led several recessions. With construction still in a multiyear slump, it seems unlikely to be the culprit this year.


The United States has had 11 recessions since the end of World War II. All but two were preceded by a big decline in the housing market.

Inside that bit of trivia lie some fundamental insights into housing’s outsize role in the business cycle, along with clues to suggest that the economy is on firmer footing than the increasingly pessimistic forecasts make it seem. The gist is this: The United States may or may not enter a recession this year, but if it does, housing is unlikely to be the cause, because it never really recovered in the first place.



Quote
Much of the problem is that while job growth has been strong, home prices have gone up faster than incomes.

Prices have gone up so far so fast that even markets previously considered affordable are beyond the reach of many buyers. Home prices have risen by about 50 percent since 2012, according to Zillow, and many of the more affordable markets have shot up even faster. In Phoenix, home values have doubled since 2012, not adjusted for inflation. The Denver market is up 90 percent, Atlanta 84 percent, Nashville 78 percent and Dallas 76 percent. If people can’t afford a home in Texas, where can they?
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on February 27, 2019, 02:32:27 AM
Fiat Chrysler laying off more than 1,300 workers at Belvidere Jeep plant (https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-fiat-chrysler-layoffs-belvidere-jeep-plant-20190226-story.html)


Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on February 27, 2019, 01:25:08 PM
On the other hand LM:
FCA announced Tuesday that it plans to build a new factory in Detroit. The factory won't be brand-new, but rather will be built on the site of the company's existing Mack Avenue Engine Complex, with the conversion process costing $1.6 billion. The plant is earmarked to build the next-generation Jeep Grand Cherokee and Jeep's long-awaited three-row SUV.

FCA says the factory would also be used to build plug-in hybrid variants, as well as offering the "flexibility" for pure-electric versions of those vehicles down the road. Construction on the plant is intended to begin by the end of the second quarter of this year, with the first three-row SUVs set to roll off the line by the end of 2020 and the next-gen Grand Cherokee arriving in the first half of 2021. The plant conversion is expected to add 3,850 jobs.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 01, 2019, 04:35:53 PM
drip, drip, drip...

US consumer spending fell sharp 0.5 percent in December | Miami Herald
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article226972754.html


Toyota, Fiat Chrysler U.S. auto sales fall in February | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-auto-sales/toyota-fiat-chrysler-u-s-auto-sales-fall-in-february-idUSKCN1QI4UW
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on March 05, 2019, 12:36:21 PM
Retail Apocalypse Is Heating Up in 2019

Major Stores Currently on Deathwatch:

https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-apocalypse-heating-2019-major-181546342.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 07, 2019, 02:47:11 PM
"The roll call of closings continued Wednesday, with discount retailer Dollar Tree’s announcement that it would close up to 390 Family Dollar locations this year. As of mid-February, retailers had announced 2,187 store closings in the United States this year, according to Coresight Research."

PDF:
https://coresight.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/US-Store-Closures-No-Light-at-the-End-of-the-Tunnel-in-2019-Feb-13-20191-1.pdf

===========

Note shift to offshore
Ocwen planning to lay off more than 2,000 mortgage employees
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/48369-ocwen-planning-to-lay-off-more-than-2000-mortgage-employees

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 07, 2019, 04:46:09 PM
>yes, Germany

ECB Injects More Stimulus as Draghi Reveals Slashed Forecasts - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-07/draghi-slashes-ecb-outlook-as-officials-inject-more-stimulus
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 07, 2019, 11:52:47 PM
Aaackk!

More than 1,100 store closures were announced in a single day as fallout from the retail apocalypse picks up steam - SFGate

https://www.sfgate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/More-than-1-100-store-closures-were-announced-in-13671313.php

Charlotte Russe, Family Dollar, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Chico's announced more than 1,100 store closings in total over the course of 24 hours this week.
The news comes one week after JCPenney, Gap, Victoria's Secret, and Tesla announced that they would close more than 300 stores.
These announcements bring the total number of planned closures this year to more than 5,300.

More than 5,300 stores are closing in 2019 as the retail apocalypse drags on — here's the full list

https://www.businessinsider.com/stores-closing-in-2019-list-2019-3?utm_source=hearst&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=allverticals

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on March 08, 2019, 02:47:46 AM
A record 7 million Americans are 3 months behind on their car payments, a red flag for the economy (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/02/12/record-million-americans-are-months-behind-their-car-payments-red-flag-economy/)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: I, Brian on March 08, 2019, 08:31:58 PM
Another one today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47499326

Btw, a check on the DJI over the past 5 days doesn't look good: https://www.google.co.uk/search?site=finance&tbm=fin&q=INDEXDJX:+.DJI#scso=_yNCCXO6IMOedlwTOybj4CA2:0
There was a big drop toward the end of December, enough for news outlets to report a bear market. With no good financial news to report, I figure we'll see that come to pass over this year. The question is, if so, how far with the DJI fall? More importantly - when is the best market opportunity that follows after? :)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 08, 2019, 08:43:46 PM
> how far with the DJI fall?

I'm 20-30% cash position right now.  50% in tax-exempt bonds.  Even at that, the equities have been putting the portfolio into wild mood swings.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 10, 2019, 07:18:35 PM
US payrolls shock suggests dawn of long forecasted slowdown - Independent.ie
https://www.independent.ie/business/world/us-payrolls-shock-suggests-dawn-of-long-forecasted-slowdown-37896196.html

I'll post this 'cause the last US payroll numbers have been in my feeds with apocalyptic headlines since they came out.  I think they'll be revised upward. If not, we've hit the wall.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on March 10, 2019, 07:53:12 PM
I think there are some major sinkholes under the foundation that aren't uncovered yet.

We had rounds like this before the 2008 recession.  We all knew that one was coming ahead of time too.  For some reason a lot of investors didn't want to recognize it then either.  Unfortunately, many people I knew sold off near the bottom and lost years of gains. Those folks would have been better off just leaving everything where it was. 

This thing is coming, might as well tighten up before the crash and buy in after the drop -- look at it as an opportunity with your investments.  The worst thing to do is react after it hits hard.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on March 11, 2019, 11:39:48 AM
"This thing is coming"

TRUE

2020???

3/11/2019
While there's a chance that a US-China trade deal, the Fed's "pause", and a fading of the pressures plaguing Europe might stave off a global recession, Bloomberg economists Dan Hanson and Tom Orlik said the risks appear to be tilted toward the downside. "The risk is that the downward momentum will be self-sustaining."
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on March 11, 2019, 09:08:51 PM
Oh it's definitely coming. We are overdue.

Inside - 2020, outside, 2022. IMFO
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 13, 2019, 08:32:52 PM
>??

Economy at "very real risk" of entering recession in late 2020
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/13/economy-at-very-real-risk-of-entering-recession-in-late-2020-ucla.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on March 22, 2019, 02:24:57 PM
The bond market is flashing its biggest recession sign since before the financial crisis

CNBC is showing their trend

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/a-key-recession-indicator-just-did-something-that-hasnt-happened-in-12-years.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 22, 2019, 08:10:50 PM
>bond market

Quote
The yield on 3-month Treasuries rose above the rate on 10-year Treasuries for the first time since 2007

Quote
investors should wait for weekly and monthly averages to show an inversion before they read it as a "powerful recession signal."

Dow falls nearly 400 points as recession indicator flashes red - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/22/investing/dow-stock-market-yield-curve/index.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: I, Brian on March 23, 2019, 07:21:56 AM
The bond market is flashing its biggest recession sign since before the financial crisis

CNBC is showing their trend

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/a-key-recession-indicator-just-did-something-that-hasnt-happened-in-12-years.html

The BBC reports on this, too:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46530860
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 26, 2019, 02:35:41 PM
love the clickbait-ish headline.

Recession Worries Move to DEFCON 3
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/03/will-there-be-a-recession-worries-move-to-defcon-3.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on March 26, 2019, 10:58:55 PM
lmao DEFCON 3. OH sh## let's get to the bugout vehicle.

/seriously...Can you feel it though? The beginning rumbles always start like this. Not this particular headline but the wild swings and uh-oh predictions.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on March 27, 2019, 04:06:47 PM
I guess my debbie is out on a limb here eh.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 27, 2019, 04:15:43 PM
Debbie's getting the bad vibe, but I'm trying to remain in denial.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on March 27, 2019, 04:57:37 PM
>Can you feel it though?

We've had a hell of a run and right now everything is overvalued.  Home prices are starting to slip from their high.  There has been a steady drumbeat of layoffs and closures over the last year.  If you put your ear to the railroad tracks you can hear the train coming.

Added:  By the time you feel it it is already here.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 28, 2019, 08:45:00 PM
>already

U.S. economy shifts into low gear as fiscal boost wanes | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-economy-shifts-into-low-gear-as-fiscal-boost-wanes-idUSKCN1R81FP

Buffett on the economy: 'It looks like things have slowed down'
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/28/buffett-on-the-economy-it-looks-like-things-have-slowed-down.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on March 28, 2019, 09:41:19 PM
>Added:  By the time you feel it it is already here.

Sorta, but like the train it takes a while to fully slow down from top speed. A year or two for things to get bad all over and fully hit the depth on the front end. I think we've been easing into it since q4 last year.

If I seem to be wishing it on, it's only because I think the sooner the better. The longer it takes the more it's going to hurt.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on March 29, 2019, 12:28:59 AM
>hurt

Yeah, we are doing our best to plan for it -- tough going because of self-employment, but we're as lean as we can stand at the moment. 


On the investment side we're  ready to buy in after the major correction.  During the last recession we bought REITs & BDCs at low prices which gave us relatively high dividends for the investment.


BTW: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEP-IRA (US only)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on March 31, 2019, 05:09:16 PM



US economy slows down sharply as impact of Trump's tax cuts fades
Government slashes its growth numbers as consumer spending, business investment, government spending and housebuilding all came in worse than had previously been predicted
 (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/trump-us-economy-tax-cuts-china-trade-war-a8843946.html)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on April 01, 2019, 11:44:02 AM
https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/03/31/trump-white-house-doubles-down-on-threat-to-close-u-s-mexico-border/

Will the economic impact out weigh the costs?

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on April 11, 2019, 07:32:16 PM
>yes, Germany

Germany to halve 2019 economic growth forecast to 0.5 percent - Spiegel - Reuters
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-economy/germany-to-halve-2019-economic-growth-forecast-to-0-5-percent-spiegel-idUKKCN1RN2KD
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: grnidone on April 11, 2019, 08:05:15 PM
?  Hawaii has an immigration issue?  From where?
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on April 12, 2019, 11:00:00 AM
# Hawaii

If you offer FREE STUFF they will come!
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on May 07, 2019, 09:58:29 PM
What Will Cause The Next Recession - Joseph Stiglitz (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyzS7Vp5vaY) - video

tl;dw:
Trump's protectionism, fiscal irresponsibility
China's debt
EU's stagnation
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on May 20, 2019, 08:31:10 PM
Peak Ford

Ford Motor Co to cut 10% of white-collar jobs as part of global restructuring - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ford-motor-layoffs/ford-motor-co-cutting-about-10-of-global-salaried-workforce-idUSKCN1SQ1FV
 
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on May 20, 2019, 10:27:31 PM
Dressbarn is going out of business, to shut all 650 stores
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/dressbarn-is-going-out-of-business-to-shut-all-650-stores.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on May 21, 2019, 10:51:34 AM
https://www.steel-technology.com/projects
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on May 21, 2019, 11:08:24 AM
Jamie Oliver restaurant chains collapse

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48352026?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ocid=socialflow_facebook&ns_source=facebook
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: buckworks on May 21, 2019, 02:25:09 PM
>> Dressbarn is going out of business, to shut all 650 stores

Yikes, I just bought some things from Dressbarn on our recent trip. They were a nice place to shop.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Rupert on May 21, 2019, 05:54:28 PM
British Steel on the brink with thousands of jobs at risk
https://www.ft.com/content/e11c8bee-7b94-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560

British Steel was braced to fall into administration as early as Wednesday with thousands of jobs at risk, after talks with the government over an emergency £75m loan to keep it afloat appeared all but dead.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on May 21, 2019, 11:25:22 PM
Richmond Fed President: We could talk ourselves into a recession
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/15/economy/economic-sentiment-recession/index.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on May 28, 2019, 09:25:00 PM
Dressbarn, CVS, Pier 1 and Topshop shuttering stores, pushing planned closures to 7,150 (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/heres-a-running-list-of-retail-store-closures-announced-in-2019.html)

Quote
Already, more than 7,150 store closures have been announced by U.S. retailers in 2019, according to Coresight Research. And it’s not even June. Last year, Coresight tracked 5,524 store closures, down more than 30% from an all-time record 8,139 closures announced in 2017. Meanwhile, Coresight has tracked 2,726 store opening announcements so far this year.

With the threat of additional tariffs taking effect on consumer-facing goods like apparel and footwear imported from China hanging over retailers, things could get even worse, according to one analyst. UBS’ Jay Sole recently said in a note to clients: “The market is not realizing how much brick & mortar retail is incrementally struggling and how new 25% tariffs could force widespread store closures. ... We think potential 25% tariffs on Chinese imports could accelerate pressure on these [companies’] profit margins to the point where major store closures become a real possibility.”
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on May 29, 2019, 03:15:03 AM
Boots plots hundreds of store closures in new retail blow | Sky News
https://news.sky.com/story/boots-plots-hundreds-of-store-closures-in-new-retail-blow-11730149
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on May 29, 2019, 01:53:45 PM
Consumer Confidence in the United States > ALL TIME HIGH

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence?
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on May 29, 2019, 02:26:32 PM
Yeah, after corecon, I've had to adjust my forecast. I hope my previous timeline in here is way off, and making a bit of a play now that it is off.

Some of this lately is more bricks-morgue related than econ overall.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on May 29, 2019, 02:49:14 PM
> lately is more bricks-morgue related

Agreed. Mass habits & trends are morphing substantially ...restaurants, retail (malls|High St), particularly clothing (anywhere in the bricks, but clothing is in flux across the board online or offline), tourism.  It's hard to say where it's going to land, but Debbie says people are tired of the 70s-90s stuff and want new experiences & products.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on May 29, 2019, 05:09:01 PM
>I've had to adjust my forecast.

Do you think it is farther away?

Consumer Confidence is a lagging indicator.

July 31 2007: Consumer confidence near 6-year high (https://money.cnn.com/2007/07/31/news/economy/consumer_confidence/index.htm?postversion=2007073110)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on May 29, 2019, 05:42:09 PM
>Do you think it is farther away?

Yes, at least in a way. But really, I think we have a new normal. The revenue flows are there, but not making it down to lower & middle class as much any more. Things are adjusting, and when it settles we may be in for a bigger reckoning.

Markets, to me, seem abnormally stable for what has been going on in the world the last 6 months.

I am currently hoping for another good 4-5 years. Not necessarily great, but not bad or tanking.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on May 29, 2019, 06:52:14 PM
Thanks for putting your perspective out there Dras.  I hope you are right, 4 to 5 years of not-bad times would sure be nice.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on May 29, 2019, 07:11:27 PM
I am currently hoping for another good 4-5 years. Not necessarily great, but not bad or tanking.

I was just reading some articles that didn't seem good enough to share, but the brief version is that Mark Zandi of Moody's is saying recession is very unlikely in 2019 and 30% chance by summer 2020. That is roughly the same prediction they made in 2011 for 2012 (which, as you will recall, was not a recession). So Moody's is betting that there is less than even odds before 2021.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on May 30, 2019, 12:47:48 PM
US economy grew at solid 3.1% rate in Q1 | Idaho Statesman
https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/business/article230978488.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on May 30, 2019, 06:10:41 PM
[Home] Sales were 2% lower compared with April 2018, the 16th straight month of annual declines. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/30/april-pending-home-sales-fall-unexpectedly.html)

The continued decline in RV shipments implies the next recession is here. (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4267177-rv-shipments-recession-predictor-refuses-take-month)

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on May 30, 2019, 09:40:01 PM
The Treasury yield curve, a key recession indicator, is at its widest since 2007 - Axios
https://www.axios.com/yield-curve-inversion-2008-recession-bonds-bbcd9568-e340-4c8b-ae65-241cb5f5cca6.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on May 31, 2019, 08:05:29 PM
And then there is the orange elephant in the room. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/05/31/markets-sink-trump-opens-new-trade-war-front-against-mexico/)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on June 02, 2019, 02:45:45 PM
Peak auto. The pain is just the beginning:

https://www.businessinsider.com/peak-car-38000-layoffs-job-losses-sales-at-auto-makers-2019-5

So does this mean the trend of people just rolling credit to the new ride has stopped?
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on June 04, 2019, 12:25:19 AM
Global Manufacturing Shrinks Amid Wall Street Recession Warning (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-factories-feel-trade-war-020553337.html)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on June 04, 2019, 11:10:43 AM
The Mall Meltdown Continues

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mall-meltdown-continues-11559559600
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on June 07, 2019, 09:28:49 PM
IBM layoffs: Company expected to cut more than 1000 employees | Durham Herald Sun
https://www.heraldsun.com/news/business/article231297813.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on June 07, 2019, 09:42:15 PM
US employers added a weak 75,000 jobs in May - ABC News
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/latest-us-employers-added-weak-75000-jobs-63551382
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on June 07, 2019, 10:21:14 PM
Ouch, that is worse than I was expecting. 
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on June 09, 2019, 04:26:47 PM
Top comment from the seekingalpha article LM linked:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4267177-rv-shipments-recession-predictor-refuses-take-month

RV shipments have declined but not in a manner that is telling us a recession is here or coming anytime soon, (maybe a slow down)? Granted, sales of Motorhomes and Fifth wheel units are seeing a slow down, but overall trailer sales are still in line. Our dealership has been up every month this year vs. YOY numbers from 2018. Last month unit sells were up 10% and F&I profits were up just over 10%.
Our net margins have declined to about 11% average for 2019 vs. 14% in 2018. Margin decline mainly is coming from myself reducing inventory on our lot, but we’ve offset that with F&I profits. My plan started last September and so far has played out very well. We are still in our busy season in the southeast and have a good 4 months left in 2019 to move volume and get our inventory where I want it. Overall our dealership should be inline with 2018 numbers. FYI, we have been buying new units every week, all year long.
As some have read my previous posts, we only sale affordable new and used travel trailers. This is one of the main reasons our dealership has always done well no matter the economy. The main reason I have been deleveraging for 9 months now is my concern on lending. The banks for several years now have been lending to customers with sub 600 credit scores, 30% of our loans are sub prime loans,(15%+ interest rates). My concern is when banks say, “no more loans”, then there goes 30% of our sales.
Regardless of what happens we will come out on the other side still selling campers to folks at affordable prices.
The slow down should only take 6 more months to correct itself and early 2020 dealers should have their inventory where they want it. I personally don’t see RV’s being sold at 2017-2019 volume for several more years, but regardless of the economy they will still be produced.
Departing statement;
As long as banks keep lending to sub prime customers and unemployment stays below 4.5% we will not see a full blown recession, only a slow down.
RSM
29 May 2019, 10:19 PM


Anecdotal yet interesting take.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on June 09, 2019, 04:43:14 PM
>As long as banks keep lending to sub prime customers

So, our economy is dependent upon continuing to milk those poor bastards?  Not a good sign of fundamental strength, imo.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on June 09, 2019, 08:56:07 PM
First in establishing a successful Sub-Prime selling machine you need a manager
that knows the Sub-Prime game, and who possesses two essential characteristics:
Integrity and Motivation.  If the leader does not believe the department can be
built into a raving success, it will never happen.  Check out the manager’s concept
of how far the department can go.  If the manager does not believe that the
department can become a huge success (and it may take some time), find
another Leader.

http://www.automotivedealersnetwork.com/Articles/RHarris/SubPrimeCustomers.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on June 09, 2019, 09:06:39 PM
I haven't known real fundamental strength for a while. You?

I thought it was a given they were basically doing the same thing that we already did with the housing crisis, its just autos now. RVs fit that mold too.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on June 09, 2019, 09:25:47 PM
>same thing that we already did with the housing crisis, its just autos now.

There still seems to be some craziness in the housing market too.

To me, this looks like a bomb waiting to go off the moment the job market softens.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on June 15, 2019, 02:49:40 PM

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-15/tips-for-spotting-a-u-s-recession-before-it-becomes-official
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on June 15, 2019, 03:52:22 PM
There still seems to be some craziness in the housing market too.

This has been on my mind a bit lately.

Back in 2006-2007, there were some things that baffled me.

1. We had come off a period of earning very little. In a rational system, our income would not have qualified us for a car loan. We got approved for up to $2,000,000.

2. We were told that if didn't qualify based on our income, we could do a "no doc" loan and just "estimate" our income to reach a level where we would qualify.

3. People were buying investment properties in our area and I could not figure out how they could possibly make it pencil out. In 2006/2007, they didn't seem to be doing basic due diligence.

#1 and #2 are not true this time.

#3 doesn't seem quite as bad, but people are buying vacant lots that are prohibitive to build on. One just sold and I know the guy who has the excavation contract. He said that just one piece of equipment, which is to drive in a *temporary* retaining wall to hold back the earth while the permanent wall is built, will cost $100,000 for the minimum rental (it has to be brought in from far away - normally for building highways and ports). This isn't even for the house. This is for the parking. It will likely cost $200K to $250K to put in TWO PARKING SPACES!! The house, which is capped by zoning at two bathrooms, will cost over a million dollars all in.

That's just one story. I can think of a lot that has sold three times because it has no access. My friend owns the lot next door. His 35-year-old driveway cuts across the easement in a way that makes this other lot impossible to put in a driveway at a reasonable cost. So last spring, he walks out of his house and finds a realtor and a client standing in his driveway. "How long has this driveway been here?" one of them asks. "35 years, why?" Turns out, the client had bought the lot in the dead of winter not realizing that my friend does not plow that driveway in the winter. He just shovels the steps that lead to the parking space on the road. They literally spent $150,000 on a lot without realizing the driveway would cost $300,000.

Anyway, we saw a lot of this in 2007. Lately, we're seeing a lot of it again. Purchases that just make you shake your head.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on June 15, 2019, 03:55:46 PM
Oh, the 2007 madness resulted in a wave of foreclosures as leveraged buyers who had not done due diligence on what actual rental profits would be couldn't make their loans. Lots of auctions, foreclosures and short sales.

One thing that's different this time is that a lot of the buyers are Chinese with cash they are trying to expatriate, so they are not as sensitive to falling returns. They seem to be looking for long-term safe-havens for cash.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on June 15, 2019, 07:02:00 PM
>Chinese

I think this is probably more of a California thing than the rest of the country; but I think this has its own risks.  China's real estate market is basically insane (https://www.citylab.com/equity/2019/02/china-vacant-apartments-housing-market-bubble-ghost-cities/583528/), I can't even imagine what that will do here once that is accounted for.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Brad on June 15, 2019, 09:12:33 PM
A lot of US farm land is being bought up by foreigners.  I'm assuming it's the same reason now as it was during the Cold War: a safe haven for wealth.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on June 15, 2019, 10:31:34 PM
Thanks Brad, I had no idea. (https://www.npr.org/2019/05/27/723501793/american-soil-is-increasingly-foreign-owned)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on June 16, 2019, 01:03:43 AM
a safe haven for wealth.

And perhaps virtual water exports, though they don't necessarily have to own the land for that.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on June 17, 2019, 09:57:14 PM
How to Invest and Profit in the Next Recession (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-17/how-to-invest-and-profit-in-the-next-recession)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on June 18, 2019, 04:12:27 PM
Is it appropriate to add an entire country?

If so Australia, almost 30 years without a recession, second longest run after Japan I think.

It's coming, will come as somewhat as a shock to everybody under 50 odd years old, that's the majority of people by a fair margin.

"The median house price in Sydney has not been less than $1 million since March 2015."

And most of those people have mentally "banked" those "profits", they've gone now. The best hope is a quick, short, sharp recession and maybe a bounce back. I think a long slow decline is more likely, death by a thousand cuts with Asia holding the knives.

From a (my) business perspective a quick, short, sharp recession would be good.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on June 18, 2019, 04:25:27 PM
>Chinese

I think this is probably more of a California thing than the rest of the country; but I think this has its own risks.  China's real estate market is basically insane (https://www.citylab.com/equity/2019/02/china-vacant-apartments-housing-market-bubble-ghost-cities/583528/), I can't even imagine what that will do here once that is accounted for.

Vancouver worth looking at as an example of what *has* happened already. From experience it's not a China thing, maybe not even an Asian thing but it's certainly a "black" money thing.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on June 18, 2019, 07:04:35 PM
>Vancouver

When they came they called them "The Yacht People"
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on June 27, 2019, 01:20:39 PM
>peak Ford

Ford to cut 12,000 jobs in Europe as part of restructuring
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/ford-to-cut-12000-jobs-in-europe-as-part-of-restructuring/2019/06/27/80b781f8-98ce-11e9-9a16-dc551ea5a43b_story.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on July 14, 2019, 08:29:13 PM
Unprepared U.K. Facing Highest Risk of Recession Since 2007 - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-13/unprepared-u-k-facing-highest-risk-of-recession-since-2007
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on July 14, 2019, 10:24:18 PM
The Fed cutting rates isn't really getting the attention it deserves imo.


“Investor enthusiasm around the idea of easier Fed policy is understandable,” Wilson said. “However, if the Fed were to cut out of concern that we are entering a real unemployment cycle, we think such a cut should not be bought. Until there is further clarity on the employment picture, we think Friday’s rally should be faded and investors should continue to skew portfolios defensively.”
 (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/10/morgan-stanley-even-if-the-fed-cuts-rates-this-summer-it-could-be-too-late-to-stop-a-recession.html)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on July 14, 2019, 10:26:13 PM
but it's certainly a "black" money thing.

I'm not sure that's always true. I think back to the 1980s when I had a Columbian friend. They were dairy farmers... but the largest dairy farmers in the country and the grandfather had been president of the country. They maintained an apartment in NYC and perhaps others. I was young and don't know details, but I think they were trying to offshore assets because they had seen a lot of countries in the region attempt to nationalize assets or have outright revolutions.

So, imagine you were a completely legit business person with a thriving business in Venezuela a decade (or more) ago. Black money or no, you would be trying to offshore assets before everything you had vaporized.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on July 16, 2019, 11:21:18 PM
US manufacturing is in recession Feds data show - MarketWatch
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/11CDA5CC-A73F-11E9-8107-2EB69FA343E0?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on July 18, 2019, 04:25:04 AM

Recession fears rise for middle-class families
 (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/16/more-middle-class-families-say-american-dream-is-out-of-reach-study.html)


Quote
Middle-class Americans are less optimistic about their economic prospects than they were just six months ago, according to a new report from CUNA Mutual Group.

Although the majority of those polled said they feel relatively stable overall, they graded their chances of achieving the American dream as a “C,” down from a “B-minus” in the fall, the insurance provider found. Close to half were increasingly concerned about an upcoming recession.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on July 18, 2019, 08:06:15 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/07/17/foreign-purchases-of-american-homes-plunge-36percent-as-chinese-buyers-flee.html

- The dollar volume of homes purchased by foreigners from April 2018 through March 2019 dropped 36% from the previous year, according to the National Association of Realtors.
- Foreigners bought 183,100 properties with a total value of about $77.9 billion, down from 266,800 properties valued at $121 billion a year earlier.

Smells like a trigger.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Travoli on July 19, 2019, 03:05:44 AM
Ray Dalio uses history to hypothesize future moves by the fed, etc... and expects gold to be good in the future. The "G" word always makes me cringe, but he makes good points.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/paradigm-shifts-ray-dalio/
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on July 29, 2019, 11:26:33 AM
A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here’s Where You’ll See It First.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/28/business/economy/economy-recession.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on July 29, 2019, 11:38:21 AM
(Eventually). Here’s Where You’ll See It First.

I will not be able to see it first...

I have my ad blocker on  8)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on July 29, 2019, 11:52:31 AM
Switch to ublock origin and they can't tell. Works great.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on July 29, 2019, 12:33:15 PM
DRAS:

TY
DONE

"Indicator 4: Consumer Sentiment"
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on August 01, 2019, 10:25:35 PM
Lowe's lays off thousands of assembly, maintenance workers
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2019/08/01/Lowes-lays-off-thousands-of-assembly-maintenance-workers/7311564694470/
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on August 04, 2019, 02:03:50 PM
OMG

Bill Maher: ‘I’ve Been Hoping for a Recession’ to Get Rid of Trump
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on August 05, 2019, 04:21:32 AM
He is kinda speeding along the process.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-08-05/china-s-offshore-yuan-tumbles-past-7-per-dollar-to-record-low
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on August 05, 2019, 10:46:11 AM
Beijing Risks Economic Self-Harm by Weaponizing the Yuan

https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-risks-economic-self-harm-by-weaponizing-the-yuan-11564983069?
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on August 05, 2019, 02:37:49 PM
HSBC to cut 4000 jobs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-05/hsbc-ousts-flint-and-seeks-new-ceo-to-battle-tough-environment
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on August 05, 2019, 07:48:06 PM
Tesco announces 4,500 job cuts as it overhauls Metro stores
https://news.sky.com/story/tesco-to-cut-4-500-jobs-from-metro-stores-chain-11778072
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Rupert on August 06, 2019, 06:59:03 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49247514
More than 1,000 jobs could be at risk after fashion firm Boohoo bought the online business of UK brands Karen Millen and Coast for £18.2m.

Boohoo, an online-only retailer, said acquiring the website operations of the two brands "would represent highly complementary additions".

The firms' 32 UK High Street stores and 177 concessions, employing 1,100 people, now appear set to close.

Administrators Deloitte said the stores would trade for a "short time".

It is understood they will continue to trade for months, as opposed to a matter of days.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on August 07, 2019, 01:14:00 AM
Walgreens to close 200 US stores

That's on top of 200 UK closures.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/06/walgreens-to-close-200-stores-in-us.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Rupert on August 07, 2019, 05:50:09 AM
They bought Boots in the UK.  It used to be a Great local company (National but based in Nottingham)

I think they borrowed heavily to buy, and it then never made a profit, as the interest rates the owners charged were so high.

Clever, but it stripped the company. The Rich get Richer, and the poor.....
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Brad on August 07, 2019, 10:34:28 AM
I think the dollar stores are having an effect on Walgreens along with other erosion like online buying and health insurers encouraging mail order prescriptions.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on August 08, 2019, 09:09:23 AM
Sears and Kmart store closings list: 21 Sears and 5 Kmart locations to close in October

https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/sears-kmart-store-closings-list-030519645.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on August 09, 2019, 04:37:28 AM
I know I said this before, but Sears had it all to capitalize on the web and threw it all away; oh well it is a very old story repeated again and again.

The last Sears catalog was 1993.

The first year of Amazon was 1994.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Brad on August 09, 2019, 01:36:25 PM
>Sears

They are such a pale shadow of what they once were that it is almost a kindness to have them shut down.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on August 12, 2019, 05:07:41 PM
BofA raises chance of a recession to 1-in-3 in the next 12 months

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/bank-of-america-raises-chance-of-a-recession-to-1-in-3-in-the-next-12-months.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on August 14, 2019, 03:23:36 AM
Quote
Value stocks have already priced in a recession: the SCHV (Schwab Large Cap Value ETF) sports a dividend yield of 2.96%, nearly double the 10-year Treasury yield of 1.64%. Meanwhile, the QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust), the tech-heavy talisman of growth investors, pays only 0.78%. It's normal for growth stocks to pay a lower dividend than value stocks, but the size of the current gap is historically huge. The disparity can no longer be ignored.

A stock like Amazon (AMZN), trading at 73 times trailing earnings, can lose half its value in a Nasdaq minute as soon as a recession becomes visible. The sky-high multiple depends on continued high rates of growth, and even companies like AMZN lose momentum in a recession. Most readers of this article are too young to remember, but AMZN lost more than 90% of its value in the recession of 2001. It barely shows up in the chart today, but AMZN declined from a late-nineties high of over $100 to less than $6 by September, 2001.


The Coming Recession Will Crush Growth Stocks (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesberman/2019/08/13/the-coming-recession-will-crush-growth-stocks/#2fa2fbf545e5)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on August 14, 2019, 04:00:29 PM
All the news this morning on the radio was of recession
 - German economy contracted .1%
 - coastal housing markets dropping (I believe 4% price decline in Los Angeles)
 - record unemployment in Chinese cities (is Trump winning the trade war or other structural issues?)
 - two and ten year T bonds inverted for first time since 2007
 - US homeowners carrying highest level of mortgage debt since 2007 (but defaults still low)
 - oil prices down on fears of recession and Saudis who had been planning to boost production are looking at that again.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on August 14, 2019, 04:50:14 PM
>this morning

All warning signals are flashing red.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on August 14, 2019, 05:05:19 PM
Yeah, lots of bad news today. 
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on August 14, 2019, 05:27:08 PM
Compare us to Europe or Japan:

Economy growing
Low Unemployment
Rising wages
AND
When folks put money in the USA, we actually pay interest :-)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on August 15, 2019, 12:45:04 PM
Welp, since I just made my largest financial commitment to date last week, we should be entering a full blown recession in 3....2....1....
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on August 15, 2019, 01:53:20 PM
What did you commit to Dras?
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on August 15, 2019, 01:59:03 PM
> largest financial commitment

Bank some money and wait for contractor prices to go down while they're scrounging for work.  I saved >$7k on a commercial-grade bulkhead installation at the peak of the last recession.  The contractor was dealing near cost just to keep his crews employed.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on August 15, 2019, 06:21:48 PM
Rising wages

Yes. If we can just hold onto this economy a bit longer, we'll see some significant wage increases. Right now in the US, some big pain points I see are caused by labor shortages. The shuttle system in Yosemite is a mess because they can't find drivers. If the economy holds up for another 9 months, I *hope* we'll see significant wage incentives to get drivers to take that job.

What's interesting in the US is the level of anxiety, which is so out of step with the traditional metrics. I think it basically boils down to many forms of insecurity - job insecurity, scheduling insecurity, benefits insecurity and so on that has people on edge in a way that is atypical for these levels of unemployment.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on August 16, 2019, 12:54:51 PM
When the unemployment rate gets LOW employers begin to hire the unemployable.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on August 17, 2019, 10:37:40 AM
Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast –Slight Rise Indicates Traders Downplaying Recession Concerns

https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-084032914.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on August 17, 2019, 06:42:39 PM
Quote
Early in the week, the markets were underpinned by optimism over potential production cuts by OPEC. Today, it’s better than expected U.S. retail sales data supporting prices. On Thursday, the U.S. reported that retail sales rose 0.7% in July as consumers bought a range of goods

Betting on the blissful ignorance of the average American consumer to fuel the economy can only work so long.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on August 18, 2019, 12:53:39 PM
Low unemployment, wage gains and a growing economy can bring on
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on August 19, 2019, 11:08:20 PM
RV Shipments are down 2 years in a row, which happened before last 3 recessions.

https://www.newser.com/story/279343/what-rv-shipments-say-about-a-possible-recession.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on August 20, 2019, 05:29:56 PM
"We live in an interconnected world"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzKLs8l9UPM
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on August 22, 2019, 06:16:00 AM
US has half a million fewer jobs than believed after big government revision (https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/08/21/jobs-u-s-employment-501-000-lower-than-believed-after-revisions/2076069001/)

Quote
The large change means job growth averaged 170,000 a month during the 12-month period, down from the 210,000 initially estimated, according to JPMorgan Chase.

Employment in several industries was revised down especially sharply. Payrolls dropped 175,000 in leisure and hospitality, and 146,000 in retail – two bellwether service sectors that depend heavily on consumer spending, the economy’s main engine.

Employment also fell by 163,000 in professional and business services and 69,000 in education and health services.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on August 22, 2019, 10:02:22 AM

Recession Fears Are Overblown

The yield curve is no longer a reliable predictor, and other economic indicators are strong.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-fears-are-overblown-11566341495
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on August 22, 2019, 04:56:37 PM
The yield curve is no longer a reliable predictor

Highly debated,  but possibly true for many reasons. I guess two years from now we'll know (the Great Recession began 23 months after the yield curve inverted)
https://www.npr.org/2019/08/21/753185863/episode-934-two-yield-curve-indicators
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on August 23, 2019, 10:03:01 AM
Yep, possible July 2021
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on August 23, 2019, 03:49:13 PM
I'd rather we don't have a recession for another 10 years, but if it's going to come, I wish it would come right now.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on August 23, 2019, 04:01:51 PM
Our massive debt is going to make the coming recession that much more painful.

Why skyrocketing federal debt will mean the next recession is harder to overcome (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/why-skyrocketing-federal-debt-will-mean-the-next-recession-is-harder-to-overcome)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on August 23, 2019, 05:14:54 PM
Quote
The deficit is now expected to close in on $1 trillion this year, and then stay over $1 trillion for every year on the horizon.

Remember how shocking it was when the DEBT passed $1 trillion? That was 1982.

The last time there was a decrease of more than 5% was... 1995 to 2000. The time before that was after WWII. In 1946, it was 119% and by the 1970s, it was bouncing around between 31% and 35%. Now we're looking at 106% next year. Prior to 2016, we had hit 104% or more only three time: 1945, 1946, 1947.

https://www.thebalance.com/national-debt-by-year-compared-to-gdp-and-major-events-3306287
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on August 23, 2019, 05:52:35 PM
It is complete fiscal irresponsibility --  basically Baby Boomers robbing Millennials.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on August 25, 2019, 08:21:27 PM
Manufacturing sector contracted for the first time since 2009 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/22/manufacturing-sector-contracted-first-time-since-data-show/?noredirect=on)

US consumer sentiment for August comes in well below estimates (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/us-consumer-sentiment-august-2019-preliminary.html)

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on August 26, 2019, 11:37:37 AM
There could be a  "Recession" in the 1st year of his second term.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on August 27, 2019, 11:22:15 AM
The Next Recession Will Destroy Millennials

"The trade war is dragging on. The yield curve is inverting. Investors are fleeing to safety. Global growth is slowing. The stock market is dipping. The Millennials are screwed."

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/millennials-are-screwed-recession/596728/
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on August 27, 2019, 04:41:33 PM
As a father I try to strike a balance when it comes to what I tell my kids about my political and economic outlooks of the future.  They are definitely inheriting a mess caused by the laziness and selfishness of previous generations.  So far, the adult ones have done a good job of not getting into debt.  I try to get them to think about practicality of career choices in tough times ahead.  There is only so much one can do.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on August 27, 2019, 11:46:22 PM
Quote
Corporate insiders have sold an average of $600 million of stock per day in August, according to TrimTabs Investment Research, which tracks stock market liquidity.

August is on track to be the fifth month of the year in which insider selling tops $10 billion. The only other times that has happened was 2006 and 2007, the period before the last bear market in stocks

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/26/investing/stock-market-insider-selling/index.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on September 17, 2019, 02:43:36 AM

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-09-09/a-manufacturing-recession-could-cost-trump-a-second-term

Quote
About 250 Kuhn employees spent the Labor Day holiday caught in a two-week furlough, and they’re facing another in early October. A shrinking order book means Kuhn is cutting costs and slashing production as Petras and his managers peer out at a U.S. economy that looks far bleaker from the swing-state heartland than it does in either the White House or on Wall Street.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on September 20, 2019, 06:00:42 AM
Household debt bombs
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on September 20, 2019, 09:54:39 AM
you can add Student Debt to the DEBT BOMB  :-[
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on September 20, 2019, 04:33:56 PM
Yeah, it is over 1.5 trillion.  My kids have so far spent their lower division at community college to keep their experiences low.

Even more crazy is the auto loan debt, it is approaching the same amount and is something completely avoidable.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on September 20, 2019, 07:49:55 PM
My kids have so far spent their lower division at community college to keep their experiences low.

I hope you meant expenses ;-)

Seriously, my nephew did this and then transferred to a well-known engineering school and now makes a nice living in Silicon Valley and started his working life with very little student debt. It's a great plan.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on September 20, 2019, 08:43:39 PM
As a father, hopefully both!  ;)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on September 23, 2019, 09:58:01 AM
https://news.gallup.com/poll/266960/economic-confidence-drops-lowest-level-shutdown.aspx
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on September 23, 2019, 05:38:00 PM
Quote
Americans' confidence in the economy has become less rosy this month as Gallup's Economic Confidence Index fell to +17 from August's +24 reading, marking the lowest level since the government shutdown ended in January.

At the same time, the public is evenly divided over the likelihood of a recession in the next year. The current expectation of a recession is nine points higher than it was in October 2007, just two months before the Great Recession began but slightly below a February 2001 reading, one month before that eight-month-long recession.

In my own little circle it seems most are oblivious.  I've seen a lot of new car purchases, a lot of debt being stacked on.  It is probably where I live.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on September 23, 2019, 09:37:17 PM
>seems most are oblivious

I'm not seeing any changes in behavior, either. 

That said, I'd think those left stranded by the Thomas Cook collapse *might* be a little more wary now.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on September 24, 2019, 12:44:23 AM
In my own little circle it seems most are oblivious.

In my own little circle, there is an uptick in people asking me what I remember about how the local hotel and vacation rental industry did during the Great Recession. Nobody was asking me about that a year ago.

I've mentioned this before, but I wonder to what extent recession worry becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Now a lot of people in Trumpworld seem to be asking the same question. Here's three examples from, respectively, conservative, center-right and center-left media...

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/trump-sounds-the-alarm-on-a-conspiracy-against-economic-growth/
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-recession-commentary-accuses-media-of-trying-to-create-one-2019-8-1028463363
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/business/economy/recession-trump.html
et cetera

I don't agree with Trump's allegation ("the media wants a recession"), but I think his basic observation is probably right - we could talk ourselves into a recession. The thing is, he has been well-served so far by using confrontation with "the media" to rally the base. I think he's playing with fire here though - by talking about recession and making accusations about a media conspiracy, he's keeping the topic in the news, which is probably the worst thing an incumbent president can do.

So to me it looks like there are two risks, one that Trump sees and one that he apparently doesn't.

1. By talking about recession enough, we could cause one, which will make re-election harder. He sees and fears this one, and rightly so.

2. By talking about recession, even to deny it, he makes people nervous and pessimistic on the economy and traditionally that is bad for incumbents. So if he doesn't learn a little restraint for once, he could face a situation where he runs for re-election in the midst of an excellent economy with no signs of recession and nevertheless loses the election because of the economy.

He needs to read George Lakoff's book, "Don't Think of Elephant." He keeps telling people, "News of a recession is fake news," failing to understand that the only word people hear in that sentence is "recession."
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on September 24, 2019, 08:44:11 PM

A majority of the ultra-wealthy expect a recession by 2020 and are hunkering down, says UBS survey
 (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/24/a-majority-of-ultra-wealthy-expect-a-recession-and-are-hunkering-down.html)
Quote
  •    UBS surveyed 360 global family offices with an average family wealth of $1.2 billion.
  •    The result showed 55% of family offices see a recession by 2020.
  •    To mitigate risks, 45% of them are already adjusting their portfolios, including shifting to bonds and real estate, while 42% are increasing their cash reserves.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on October 01, 2019, 04:06:32 PM
US manufacturing survey shows worst reading in a decade (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/us-manufacturing-economy-contracts-to-worst-level-in-a-decade.html)

Quote

The U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index from the Institute for Supply Management came in at 47.8% in September, the lowest since June 2009, marking the second consecutive month of contraction. Any figure below 50% signals a contraction.

The new export orders index was only 41%, the lowest level since March 2009, down from the August reading of 43.3%, ISM data showed.

We have now tariffed our way into a manufacturing recession in the U.S. and globally,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on October 01, 2019, 04:28:09 PM
>>worst reading in a decade

What are the chances we are already in a recession?

What are the chances that the trade war is rolled back in 2020 and we never go into a recession?

Meanwhile, this is in my inbox from Visit California (state tourism board)
Quote
Take a moment to view Year in Review FY18/19, to reflect on statewide marketing accomplishments and record-breaking tourism impacts – a collective success for the industry.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on October 01, 2019, 05:41:38 PM
Quote
What are the chances we are already in a recession?

What are the chances that the trade war is rolled back in 2020 and we never go into a recession?

None of us are clairvoyant, but the trade war is not solely responsible for the slowdown, it just hastened it.   So, I doubt that rolling back tariffs will do much at this point other than push the timeline back a bit.  My bigger concern is the record breaking deficit (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-deficit-federal-budget-short-record-amount-in-may-2019-6-1028274824) gives us very little fiscal wiggle room to deal with the next crisis. 
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on October 01, 2019, 09:14:46 PM
Low interest rates take away a big tool as well. In fact, the only tool left once interest rates bottom out is massive deficit spending, which should make you even more afraid of those deficits, especially in places where the rate is already basically zero and supra-national bodies can dictate how much deficit spending they can do.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on October 01, 2019, 10:32:13 PM
Manufacturers are mired in their deepest slump since the Great Recession - CBS News

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/manufacturing-recession-manufacturers-are-in-their-deepest-slump-since-the-recession/

Luckily, I guess, we don't have much manufacturing in my region of the state.  I'm still not clear as to the end result of all the farm commodity tariff brouhaha.  Riding by, things appear to be normal and yields look good.  But the farmers may be operating at a loss on borrowed money, FAIK.  I don't see as much shiny new high-$$$$ equipment as in previous years, though.


<added>
Just saw this.


Deere to lay off 163 U.S. workers as trade war dents equipment demand - Reuters

"The layoffs come weeks after the company said it would reduce production by 20% at its facilities in Illinois and Iowa in the second of half of the year to keep inventory in line with retail demand."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-deere-layoffs/deere-to-lay-off-163-u-s-workers-as-trade-war-dents-equipment-demand-idUSKBN1WG4OW
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on October 03, 2019, 03:53:39 PM
UK economy headed for recession after services shrink unexpectedly

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/uk-economy-headed-for-recession-after-services-shrink-unexpectedly-pmi-udwy2ayjqsfzygr.html

<added>

US stocks sink following weak services sector report

"The services sector, which makes up the bulk of the U.S. economy, grew at a slower pace in September than economists had forecast. The weak report follows disappointing figures on business hiring on Wednesday and a dismal manufacturing report on Tuesday."

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-stocks-sink-weak-services-sector-report-66033141
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on October 03, 2019, 07:17:57 PM
I'm sure other's have checked, but I'm not sure anyone has posted, at least not recently

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F06bmj  -- search interest in Recession (topic)

Dec 2007 = 100
August 2019 = 76

Aug 2011 and Dec 2018 hit 30

The last time we saw 76 was Mar 2009 on the downslide from the recession
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on October 03, 2019, 07:22:04 PM
If you restrict it to "Finance" you can see that the chatter peaks right at the beginning and the "during" chatter is less than when looking at search in general

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?cat=7&date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F06bmj

Basically, there's a massive peak when the recession actually starts and then there is another peak around the time the recession is *declared*, but the second peak is much smaller when looking just at finance.

By that measure, Google Trends number for August was the highest number by a large margin since December 2007.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on October 03, 2019, 07:29:24 PM
Meanwhile, over at the New York Times

Quote
For one brief, terrifying moment this summer, the word “recession” was on everyone’s lips — the stuff of television segments, front-page articles and Google searches.

Then, just as abruptly, everything started to look pretty much fine.

....

But it would be premature to declare a clean bill of health....

The latest, starkest reminder was a new manufacturing number published Tuesday. It showed the sector was contracting in September at its fastest rate since 2009....

...the manufacturing industry in the United States has added an average of only 3,000 jobs a month, down from 25,000 a month as recently as the spring of 2018.

...Spending on nonresidential construction fell 0.4 percent in August
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/02/upshot/recession-risks-economic-outlook.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article


Meanwhile, Washington Post reports this:
Quote
Others even speculated that reports about presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders’s health might have sparked the sell-off.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/10/02/dow-plunges-more-than-points-wall-street-extends-october-losses/

which mostly goes to prove that lots of people who speculate about the economy are untethered from reality (which may be true of me too, but WaPo is not interviewing me!)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on October 06, 2019, 10:03:23 PM
Ooooph!

HSBC to cut up to 10,000 jobs in drive to slash costs

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hsbc-hldg-layoffs/hsbc-to-cut-up-to-10000-jobs-ft-idUSKBN1WL0J9
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on October 07, 2019, 12:37:29 PM
Related, Robots to cut 200,000 U.S. bank jobs in next decade:

https://www.americanbanker.com/articles/robots-to-cut-200-000-us-bank-jobs-in-next-decade-study
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on October 07, 2019, 02:36:06 PM
ROBOTS should be a MEGA thread of its own.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on October 07, 2019, 07:23:03 PM
That's what the Terminator thread sort of evolved into.

Imagine that thing malfunctioning.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Brad on October 08, 2019, 10:24:25 AM
I'm having my annual meeting with my Edward Jones broker.  This thread has gotten to me, so I'm going to tell him to shift to circling the wagons.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on October 14, 2019, 09:04:01 PM

Billionaire Warren Buffett Is Predicting a Stock Market Crash; Is He Right? (https://www.ccn.com/billionaire-warren-buffett-predicting-a-stock-market-crash/)

Quote
The Oracle of Omaha’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK) had cashed out nearly 60% of its investment portfolio at the end of June according to an SEC filing. The $122 billion cash pile is unusual for Buffett, who typically puts his money to work through acquisitions, stock buybacks or equity purchases.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on October 16, 2019, 11:15:18 PM
Global economy faces $19tn corporate debt timebomb, warns IMF  (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/16/global-economy-faces-19tn-corporate-debt-timebomb-warns-imf)

Quote
Low interest rates are encouraging companies to take on a level of debt that risks becoming a $19tn (£15tn) timebomb in the event of another global recession, the International Monetary Fund has said.

In its half-yearly update on the state of the world’s financial markets, the IMF said that almost 40% of the corporate debt in eight leading countries – the US, China, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Spain – would be impossible to service if there was a downturn half as serious as that of a decade ago.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on October 17, 2019, 05:54:26 AM
Weak U.S. retail sales cast shadow over slowing economy
 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-retail/weak-u-s-retail-sales-cast-gloom-over-economy-idUSKBN1WV1NG)


Quote
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in September, suggesting that manufacturing-led weakness could be spreading to the broader economy, keeping the door open for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again later this month.

The downbeat report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday came on the heels of data this month showing a moderation in job growth and services sector activity in September. Signs of cracks in the economy’s main pillar of support, ahead of the holiday season, could further stoke financial market fears of a sharper slowdown in economic growth.