Th3 Core

Why We Are Here => Economics & Investing => Topic started by: littleman on December 21, 2018, 09:43:18 PM

Title: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 21, 2018, 09:43:18 PM
Dow sinks again, putting December performance at risk as the worst since 1931 (https://www.pennlive.com/news/2018/12/dow-sinks-again-putting-december-performance-at-risk-as-the-worst-since-1931.html)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Rupert on December 22, 2018, 08:47:24 AM
UK house prices set to tumble:
https://www.hertsad.co.uk/property/rightmove-reports-biggest-fall-in-house-prices-since-2012-1-5823358
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 22, 2018, 12:04:00 PM
The European Project Comes To An End

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-21/european-project-comes-end
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Rupert on December 23, 2018, 07:11:49 AM
Its not quite like that in France :) 

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on December 24, 2018, 04:45:20 AM
More than 30,000 UK retailers in 'significant' financial distress

Data shows online retailers not immune from shopping slump in lead-up to this Christmas

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/23/high-street-online-uk-retailers-significant-financial-distress-christmas-shopping
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 24, 2018, 11:37:12 AM
Christmas shopping continues to rise year after year. With sales rising over a trillion dollars there seems to no slow down to the amount of spending that Christmas shoppers will make.

https://wearetop10.com/christmas-statistics/
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on December 24, 2018, 05:24:35 PM
> https://wearetop10.com/christmas-statistics/

They just made all of that up.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 24, 2018, 07:32:43 PM
Confusing signals from Washington send markets plunging (https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/24/investing/stock-market-today-dow/index.html)

Quote
Alarmed investors drove the Dow more than 650 points lower in a shortened trading session on Monday. Markets plunged after the Trump administration sent out confusing signals about markets and the economy.

The S&P 500 fell 2.7% and the Nasdaq was off 2.2%. The Dow, which fell 2.9%, and the S&P 500 suffered their biggest Christmas Eve declines ever.

Stocks initially fell on Monday following a statement from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that he had checked on the health of the country's largest banks.

The market recovered late morning, but then slid even lower after President Donald Trump tweeted: "The only problem our economy has is the Fed." Investors are concerned that Trump may fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

That's a 15 month low.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: aaron on December 25, 2018, 02:57:51 PM
Confusing signals from Washington send markets plunging (https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/24/investing/stock-market-today-dow/index.html)
That's a 15 month low.
I think the point of doing the "just checking in" with the bank CEOs & then publicly announcing it was to boost uncertainty rather than boost confidence. Somebody has to eat the loss & the faster it happens while being closely tied to a Fed rate raise the easier it is to blame the Fed & the harder it is for the Fed to raise rates again. Then Trump gets to claim he "saved the world" when he strikes a watered down trade deal with China.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 25, 2018, 04:19:50 PM
Mnuchin f###ed Up
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 25, 2018, 05:29:12 PM
Wow Aaron.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 28, 2018, 02:01:42 PM
California, as home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood, lives and dies with capital gains taxes. In bull markets, when lots of stocks are rising and tech startups are going public, the state is flush. But in bear markets capital gains turn into capital losses and Sacramento’s revenues plunge. Put another way, the state’s top 1% highest-income taxpayers generate about half of personal income taxes. When their incomes fall, tax revenues crater.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on December 28, 2018, 04:52:35 PM
HMV calls in administrators

"...blamed a "tsunami" of retail challenges, including business rate levels and the move to digital."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46699290
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 29, 2018, 12:41:07 AM
California, as home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood, lives and dies with capital gains taxes. In bull markets, when lots of stocks are rising and tech startups are going public, the state is flush. But in bear markets capital gains turn into capital losses and Sacramento’s revenues plunge. Put another way, the state’s top 1% highest-income taxpayers generate about half of personal income taxes. When their incomes fall, tax revenues crater.

Fortunately, we have a good budget reserve ATM. 
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on December 29, 2018, 01:17:03 PM
LM:

True BUT
California has come a long way to dig itself out of budget deficits, but the state remains on shaky ground due to nearly $400 billion in unfunded liabilities and debt from public pensions, retiree health care and bonds, financial analysts say.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-s-400-billion-debt-worries-analysts-6812264.php
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on December 29, 2018, 07:02:52 PM
California has come a long way to dig itself out of budget deficits, but the state remains on shaky ground due to nearly $400 billion in unfunded liabilities and debt from public pensions, retiree health care and bonds, financial analysts say.

And that only counts state-level liabilities. Our county has clawed its way back into the black, but still struggles. For many years, county workers with 25 years of service were entitled to full pension at 57 years old, which means they have a lot of young retirees. Meanwhile, any supervisor who serves six years (three terms) gets a pension for life. I almost thought about running for supervisor after I found out about that.

My saving grace is that my meager pension from a time as a state employee is from the state of Wisconsin, the only government pension I know of (definitely at the state or federal level) designed to stay solvent from the get go.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: aaron on December 30, 2018, 03:43:39 AM
Wow Aaron.
Tweet-driven headline just in time for a year-end one-day rally...

WSJ: U.S. and China Fleshing Out Trade Deal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-and-china-fleshing-out-trade-deal-11546126975)
Quote
On Saturday, President Trump tweeted that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping had recently talked by phone and made “big progress” in talks, due to conclude on March 1. “Deal is moving along very well,” Mr. Trump tweeted. “If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas and points of dispute.”

But people familiar with the state of negotiations said the president may be overstating how close the two sides are to an agreement. They note Mr. Trump has looked to calm markets, which have gyrated in recent days, in part, because of concern that the trade fight between the U.S. and China could spin out of control.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 30, 2018, 10:01:14 PM
I think you are over estimating his intelligence.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on December 31, 2018, 02:56:31 AM
Quote
China’s benchmark CSI 300 index will finish the year close to 3,000, down more than 25 per cent from where it started 2018, according to Bloomberg data. The staggering drop outpaced other poor performers: Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 14 per cent, the US S&P 500 was down 8 per cent and the UK’s FTSE 100 fell 13 per cent.

https://www.ft.com/content/50e3e97a-0a86-11e9-9fe8-acdb36967cfc
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on January 01, 2019, 12:53:51 PM
China's industrial profits suffer first annual drop in 3 years, piles pressure on economy

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/67267426.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on January 02, 2019, 02:03:34 PM
Bloomberg News reports that a Federal Reserve Bank of New York gauge puts the chances of a recession at almost 16 percent a year from now, the highest since November 2008.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on January 04, 2019, 03:55:29 AM
Quote
The Dow dropped 660 points, or 2.8%, on Thursday after Apple warned it will badly miss its quarterly sales forecast because of weakening growth and trade tensions in China.
Apple (AAPL), among the world's most widely held stocks, plummeted 10% in its darkest day in six years. The former king of the stock market fell to the fourth-biggest public company, behind Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL).
The news sent shudders through global markets. The Nasdaq plunged 3%, closing back in bear market territory. The S&P 500 shed 2.5%, led lower by tech and industrial stocks. The market ended near the lows of the day.

Even though the market rose slightly on Wednesday, this is still the S&P 500's worst two-day start to a trading year since 2000, according to Refinitiv data.
Beyond Apple, investors were also rattled by the biggest one-month decline in US factory activity since the Great Recession. The closely-watched ISM manufacturing index tumbled to a two-year low, providing further evidence of slowing growth and pain from the US-China trade war. ISM said manufacturing activity is still growing, but suffered a "sharp decline" last month.


https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/03/investing/stock-market-today-apple-dow-jones/index.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on January 05, 2019, 01:29:53 PM
DOW goes up & down.

China has real problems!

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on January 10, 2019, 02:22:23 AM
Retail sales were flat in December, as UK businesses experienced their worst Christmas in a decade, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC).

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46807146
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on January 10, 2019, 02:00:29 PM
Macy's shares crater on holiday sales results, slashed outlook
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/10/macys-shares-crater-12percent-on-holiday-sales-results.html


Ford Europe: Thousands of jobs to be cut in overhaul
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/10/business/ford-europe-jobs/index.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on January 10, 2019, 04:39:22 PM
<added>

We're on a roll.

Jaguar Land Rover confirms 4,500 job cuts - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46822706
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on January 10, 2019, 05:35:02 PM
Yeah, there are so many companies in the process of downsizing.  It's like none of them want to be late to the punch, but collectively they may all end up pulling the economy down faster than it would otherwise.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on January 21, 2019, 12:00:41 PM
China’s economy grew 6.6% in 2018, the lowest pace in 28 years

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/21/china-2018-gdp-china-reports-economic-growth-for-fourth-quarter-year.html

AND they lie about their stats!

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Rupert on January 21, 2019, 06:21:45 PM
This was actually the middle of last year.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/14/rolls-royce-cut-jobs-britain

Aircraft engine maker announces restructuring, with 4,600 jobs to go worldwide

alot of people I know work here. Mate is a fuel cell specialist.....gone.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on January 28, 2019, 04:53:27 PM
Ouch! That's gonna leave a mark.

Tesco says 9,000 jobs 'impacted' in changes to UK business
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/28/tesco-says-9000-jobs-impacted-in-changes-to-uk-business.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on January 28, 2019, 06:22:57 PM
https://techcrunch.com/2019/01/28/chinas-smartphone-shipments-dropped-14-percent-in-2018/


Quote
China’s smartphone shipments dropped 14 percent in 2018
...
Much of what’s at play here is a familiar story all over. A matured market means upgrade cycles have slowed down, as more users are choosing to hold onto handsets for longer. Even more pronounced, however, is a combination of slowed economic growth and lowered purchasing power in the country.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 06, 2019, 11:23:47 PM
Deutsche Bank Says German Economy Is Drifting Toward Recession

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-05/deutsche-bank-says-german-economy-is-drifting-toward-recession
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on February 07, 2019, 11:32:34 AM
TAKE THIS TO THE BANK  8)

Mr. Mackin predicts no recession in the USA in the near future.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 07, 2019, 10:24:09 PM
More bad news: Street sees Q1 profits declining and full-year growth rates cut in half
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/07/more-bad-news-street-sees-q1-profits-declining-and-full-year-growth-rates-cut-in-half.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on February 08, 2019, 12:50:22 AM
My personal feeling is we'll ride this out for about the next year and a half until election time. It'll be rocky here and there but will remain relatively stable overall. Then, I think we'll see the real swing either starting or maybe already starting to be felt around Q1 2021.

This is the timing I'm sorta counting on so, a bit biased maybe.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 08, 2019, 02:05:50 AM
Bank of England sees weakest UK outlook since 2009 on Brexit, global slowdown | Reuters
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-boe/bank-of-england-sees-weakest-outlook-for-uk-since-2009-on-brexit-world-slowdown-idUKKCN1PW1BO
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 09, 2019, 02:55:05 PM
Uh-oh, average 2018 tax refund $$ is down over 8%. 

Filing Season Statistics for Week Ending February 1, 2019 | Internal Revenue Service
https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/filing-season-statistics-for-week-ending-february-1-2019
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on February 09, 2019, 04:36:28 PM
8% is huge.  The 2018 tax reform is doing its damage.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 09, 2019, 06:07:44 PM
>huge

I've read in the past that a large number of families use their tax refund as a forced savings account. Add to that the more recent reports  finding that 40% of the nation can't scrape up $400 in an emergency and you've got a recipe for a potentially massive downturn in consumer sentiment and spending. Hence, this post under "Recession."
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: DrCool on February 11, 2019, 05:53:58 PM
>>tax refund as a forced savings account

I am HORRIBLE at saving. I have a few different services that automatically take some money and tuck it away but for the most part if it is in my account I spend it. It is nice getting a big chunk all at once in the spring to do stuff like pay for a vacation, buy furniture, tires for the van, etc. that cost more than a couple hundred bucks. I haven't updated my withholding since I started my current job 5 years ago and we have added 2 kids.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 12, 2019, 03:25:47 PM
The economy is like Jenga...

Main Street pares back its economic outlook - Axios
https://www.axios.com/main-street-expectations-for-economy-drop-1852609a-2846-4a00-96df-f65b60289eff.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 13, 2019, 12:03:29 AM
A record number of Americans are 90 days behind on their car payments
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/12/a-record-number-of-americans-are-90-days-behind-on-their-car-payments.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on February 13, 2019, 12:29:44 AM
Came to post that. It seems they are cherry picking the numbers, going by this:

https://www.finder.com/car-loan-statistics

Since 2010 we've increased a million accounts behind 90 days, but we've grown about 30 million accounts total. So, overall it was about 8% of total loans then and the new loans are less than 4%, bringing the overall to around 6.5 currently.

Seems about right to me?
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on February 13, 2019, 10:46:22 PM
U.S. National Debt Hits Record $22 Trillion (https://www.npr.org/2019/02/13/694199256/u-s-national-debt-hits-22-trillion-a-new-record-thats-predicted-to-fall)

Quote

The U.S. government's public debt is now more than $22 trillion — the highest it has ever been. The Treasury Department data comes as tax revenue has fallen and federal spending continues to rise. The new debt level reflects a rise of more than $2 trillion from the day President Trump took office in 2017.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on February 14, 2019, 11:38:18 AM
Both parties MUST stop spending money we do not have.

It will be painful BUT must be done!
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 14, 2019, 01:39:56 PM
We're blowing through a couple of bad tipping points lately.... climate, budget.

Quote
By 2020, interest will cost the federal government more than Medicaid. In 2023, the federal government will spend more on interest than defense. In 2025, interest spending will outpace spending on all discretionary programs, excluding defense. Those estimates come from the Congressional Budget Office.

That’s a best-case scenario. The CBO projections don’t include the ramifications from an economic downturn in the next 10 years, which is a virtual certainty. Expenses, such as food stamps and unemployment benefits, would increase. Revenues, especially income taxes, would drop. That would explode the debt at a greater rate, as the government relies on even more deficit spending to make up difference.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-us-will-soon-spend-more-on-interest-than-defense-1535577/
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 14, 2019, 02:40:48 PM
Humbug holidays: US retail sales drop 1.2 pct. in December
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/humbug-holidays-us-retail-sales-drop-12-pct-61072690

US wholesale prices dip 0.1 percent in January
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-wholesale-prices-dip-01-percent-january-61072724

US unemployment claims rise by 4,000 to 239,000
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-unemployment-claims-rise-4000-239000-61072761
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on February 14, 2019, 02:49:59 PM
Germany narrowly avoids recession; US retail sales slide


Yes, Germany.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/feb/14/germany-economy-recession-gdp-eurozone-growt-trade-talks-business-live
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 15, 2019, 01:34:17 AM
Climate disasters cost $650 billion over 3 years: Morgan Stanley
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/14/climate-disasters-cost-650-billion-over-3-years-morgan-stanley.html

Quote
North America absorbed two-thirds of the global cost of climate disasters over the last three years, Morgan Stanley says. At $415 billion, the price of the disasters is equal to 0.66 percent of North America's GDP
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 16, 2019, 03:36:41 PM
Feb 15, 2019: New York Fed Staff Nowcast
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on February 16, 2019, 09:06:38 PM
> https://wearetop10.com/christmas-statistics/

They just made all of that up.

......

Humbug holidays: US retail sales drop 1.2 pct. in December
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/humbug-holidays-us-retail-sales-drop-12-pct-61072690

Your bullshit filter was working well there Mark.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 18, 2019, 03:29:19 PM
No recession but global growth will slow down, Janus Henderson says
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/18/no-recession-but-global-growth-will-slow-down-janus-henderson-says.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 19, 2019, 09:03:50 PM
Federal data:

"Throughout much of the Midwest, U.S. farmers are filing for chapter 12 bankruptcy protection at levels not seen for at least a decade"

Farm Belt Bankruptcies Are Soaring - WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-one-here-is-gonna-kick-my-buttfarm-belt-bankruptcies-are-soaring-11549468759
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 23, 2019, 08:42:27 PM
Big in my feeds.

Average tax refund down 17 percent, IRS reports - POLITICO
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/22/irs-tax-refunds-2019-1207283
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on February 23, 2019, 11:03:36 PM
I find this one a little odd.  No one seems to be complaining about the 21% flat tax on C corps and how that will translate into more tax burden for individuals and greater debt burden for future generations.  Yet, people are getting angry because they are not having more taxes withheld and then given back to them as a refund.  I guess the average American is incapable of fiscal discipline or thinking things through very much. 
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on February 24, 2019, 07:24:57 AM
>Your bullshit filter was working well there Mark.

It's a curse not a power.

"...the line, sometimes wrongly attributed to Paxman, that he approaches every interview by asking of himself the question: "Why is this lying ba*tard lying to me?"

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2005/jan/31/mondaymediasection.politicsandthemedia

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on February 25, 2019, 08:23:52 PM
Three-fourths of business economists expect a recession by 2021, survey finds
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nabe-economic-policy-survey-171131067.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Brad on February 26, 2019, 12:23:09 AM
>2021

Well we're about due for another one about then anyway.  Boom - Bust - Boom - Bust.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on February 26, 2019, 06:44:32 PM
Housing will not cause the 2019 recession says the NYT....

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/19/business/economy/housing-recession.html

Quote
Housing Is Already in a Slump. So It (Probably) Can’t Cause a Recession.

A decline in residential real estate has led several recessions. With construction still in a multiyear slump, it seems unlikely to be the culprit this year.


The United States has had 11 recessions since the end of World War II. All but two were preceded by a big decline in the housing market.

Inside that bit of trivia lie some fundamental insights into housing’s outsize role in the business cycle, along with clues to suggest that the economy is on firmer footing than the increasingly pessimistic forecasts make it seem. The gist is this: The United States may or may not enter a recession this year, but if it does, housing is unlikely to be the cause, because it never really recovered in the first place.



Quote
Much of the problem is that while job growth has been strong, home prices have gone up faster than incomes.

Prices have gone up so far so fast that even markets previously considered affordable are beyond the reach of many buyers. Home prices have risen by about 50 percent since 2012, according to Zillow, and many of the more affordable markets have shot up even faster. In Phoenix, home values have doubled since 2012, not adjusted for inflation. The Denver market is up 90 percent, Atlanta 84 percent, Nashville 78 percent and Dallas 76 percent. If people can’t afford a home in Texas, where can they?
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on February 27, 2019, 02:32:27 AM
Fiat Chrysler laying off more than 1,300 workers at Belvidere Jeep plant (https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-fiat-chrysler-layoffs-belvidere-jeep-plant-20190226-story.html)


Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on February 27, 2019, 01:25:08 PM
On the other hand LM:
FCA announced Tuesday that it plans to build a new factory in Detroit. The factory won't be brand-new, but rather will be built on the site of the company's existing Mack Avenue Engine Complex, with the conversion process costing $1.6 billion. The plant is earmarked to build the next-generation Jeep Grand Cherokee and Jeep's long-awaited three-row SUV.

FCA says the factory would also be used to build plug-in hybrid variants, as well as offering the "flexibility" for pure-electric versions of those vehicles down the road. Construction on the plant is intended to begin by the end of the second quarter of this year, with the first three-row SUVs set to roll off the line by the end of 2020 and the next-gen Grand Cherokee arriving in the first half of 2021. The plant conversion is expected to add 3,850 jobs.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 01, 2019, 04:35:53 PM
drip, drip, drip...

US consumer spending fell sharp 0.5 percent in December | Miami Herald
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article226972754.html


Toyota, Fiat Chrysler U.S. auto sales fall in February | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-auto-sales/toyota-fiat-chrysler-u-s-auto-sales-fall-in-february-idUSKCN1QI4UW
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on March 05, 2019, 12:36:21 PM
Retail Apocalypse Is Heating Up in 2019

Major Stores Currently on Deathwatch:

https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-apocalypse-heating-2019-major-181546342.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 07, 2019, 02:47:11 PM
"The roll call of closings continued Wednesday, with discount retailer Dollar Tree’s announcement that it would close up to 390 Family Dollar locations this year. As of mid-February, retailers had announced 2,187 store closings in the United States this year, according to Coresight Research."

PDF:
https://coresight.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/US-Store-Closures-No-Light-at-the-End-of-the-Tunnel-in-2019-Feb-13-20191-1.pdf

===========

Note shift to offshore
Ocwen planning to lay off more than 2,000 mortgage employees
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/48369-ocwen-planning-to-lay-off-more-than-2000-mortgage-employees

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 07, 2019, 04:46:09 PM
>yes, Germany

ECB Injects More Stimulus as Draghi Reveals Slashed Forecasts - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-07/draghi-slashes-ecb-outlook-as-officials-inject-more-stimulus
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 07, 2019, 11:52:47 PM
Aaackk!

More than 1,100 store closures were announced in a single day as fallout from the retail apocalypse picks up steam - SFGate

https://www.sfgate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/More-than-1-100-store-closures-were-announced-in-13671313.php

Charlotte Russe, Family Dollar, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Chico's announced more than 1,100 store closings in total over the course of 24 hours this week.
The news comes one week after JCPenney, Gap, Victoria's Secret, and Tesla announced that they would close more than 300 stores.
These announcements bring the total number of planned closures this year to more than 5,300.

More than 5,300 stores are closing in 2019 as the retail apocalypse drags on — here's the full list

https://www.businessinsider.com/stores-closing-in-2019-list-2019-3?utm_source=hearst&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=allverticals

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on March 08, 2019, 02:47:46 AM
A record 7 million Americans are 3 months behind on their car payments, a red flag for the economy (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/02/12/record-million-americans-are-months-behind-their-car-payments-red-flag-economy/)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: I, Brian on March 08, 2019, 08:31:58 PM
Another one today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47499326

Btw, a check on the DJI over the past 5 days doesn't look good: https://www.google.co.uk/search?site=finance&tbm=fin&q=INDEXDJX:+.DJI#scso=_yNCCXO6IMOedlwTOybj4CA2:0
There was a big drop toward the end of December, enough for news outlets to report a bear market. With no good financial news to report, I figure we'll see that come to pass over this year. The question is, if so, how far with the DJI fall? More importantly - when is the best market opportunity that follows after? :)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 08, 2019, 08:43:46 PM
> how far with the DJI fall?

I'm 20-30% cash position right now.  50% in tax-exempt bonds.  Even at that, the equities have been putting the portfolio into wild mood swings.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 10, 2019, 07:18:35 PM
US payrolls shock suggests dawn of long forecasted slowdown - Independent.ie
https://www.independent.ie/business/world/us-payrolls-shock-suggests-dawn-of-long-forecasted-slowdown-37896196.html

I'll post this 'cause the last US payroll numbers have been in my feeds with apocalyptic headlines since they came out.  I think they'll be revised upward. If not, we've hit the wall.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on March 10, 2019, 07:53:12 PM
I think there are some major sinkholes under the foundation that aren't uncovered yet.

We had rounds like this before the 2008 recession.  We all knew that one was coming ahead of time too.  For some reason a lot of investors didn't want to recognize it then either.  Unfortunately, many people I knew sold off near the bottom and lost years of gains. Those folks would have been better off just leaving everything where it was. 

This thing is coming, might as well tighten up before the crash and buy in after the drop -- look at it as an opportunity with your investments.  The worst thing to do is react after it hits hard.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on March 11, 2019, 11:39:48 AM
"This thing is coming"

TRUE

2020???

3/11/2019
While there's a chance that a US-China trade deal, the Fed's "pause", and a fading of the pressures plaguing Europe might stave off a global recession, Bloomberg economists Dan Hanson and Tom Orlik said the risks appear to be tilted toward the downside. "The risk is that the downward momentum will be self-sustaining."
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on March 11, 2019, 09:08:51 PM
Oh it's definitely coming. We are overdue.

Inside - 2020, outside, 2022. IMFO
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 13, 2019, 08:32:52 PM
>??

Economy at "very real risk" of entering recession in late 2020
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/13/economy-at-very-real-risk-of-entering-recession-in-late-2020-ucla.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on March 22, 2019, 02:24:57 PM
The bond market is flashing its biggest recession sign since before the financial crisis

CNBC is showing their trend

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/a-key-recession-indicator-just-did-something-that-hasnt-happened-in-12-years.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 22, 2019, 08:10:50 PM
>bond market

Quote
The yield on 3-month Treasuries rose above the rate on 10-year Treasuries for the first time since 2007

Quote
investors should wait for weekly and monthly averages to show an inversion before they read it as a "powerful recession signal."

Dow falls nearly 400 points as recession indicator flashes red - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/22/investing/dow-stock-market-yield-curve/index.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: I, Brian on March 23, 2019, 07:21:56 AM
The bond market is flashing its biggest recession sign since before the financial crisis

CNBC is showing their trend

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/a-key-recession-indicator-just-did-something-that-hasnt-happened-in-12-years.html

The BBC reports on this, too:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46530860
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 26, 2019, 02:35:41 PM
love the clickbait-ish headline.

Recession Worries Move to DEFCON 3
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/03/will-there-be-a-recession-worries-move-to-defcon-3.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on March 26, 2019, 10:58:55 PM
lmao DEFCON 3. OH sh## let's get to the bugout vehicle.

/seriously...Can you feel it though? The beginning rumbles always start like this. Not this particular headline but the wild swings and uh-oh predictions.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on March 27, 2019, 04:06:47 PM
I guess my debbie is out on a limb here eh.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 27, 2019, 04:15:43 PM
Debbie's getting the bad vibe, but I'm trying to remain in denial.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on March 27, 2019, 04:57:37 PM
>Can you feel it though?

We've had a hell of a run and right now everything is overvalued.  Home prices are starting to slip from their high.  There has been a steady drumbeat of layoffs and closures over the last year.  If you put your ear to the railroad tracks you can hear the train coming.

Added:  By the time you feel it it is already here.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on March 28, 2019, 08:45:00 PM
>already

U.S. economy shifts into low gear as fiscal boost wanes | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-economy-shifts-into-low-gear-as-fiscal-boost-wanes-idUSKCN1R81FP

Buffett on the economy: 'It looks like things have slowed down'
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/28/buffett-on-the-economy-it-looks-like-things-have-slowed-down.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on March 28, 2019, 09:41:19 PM
>Added:  By the time you feel it it is already here.

Sorta, but like the train it takes a while to fully slow down from top speed. A year or two for things to get bad all over and fully hit the depth on the front end. I think we've been easing into it since q4 last year.

If I seem to be wishing it on, it's only because I think the sooner the better. The longer it takes the more it's going to hurt.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on March 29, 2019, 12:28:59 AM
>hurt

Yeah, we are doing our best to plan for it -- tough going because of self-employment, but we're as lean as we can stand at the moment. 


On the investment side we're  ready to buy in after the major correction.  During the last recession we bought REITs & BDCs at low prices which gave us relatively high dividends for the investment.


BTW: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEP-IRA (US only)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on March 31, 2019, 05:09:16 PM



US economy slows down sharply as impact of Trump's tax cuts fades
Government slashes its growth numbers as consumer spending, business investment, government spending and housebuilding all came in worse than had previously been predicted
 (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/trump-us-economy-tax-cuts-china-trade-war-a8843946.html)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on April 01, 2019, 11:44:02 AM
https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/03/31/trump-white-house-doubles-down-on-threat-to-close-u-s-mexico-border/

Will the economic impact out weigh the costs?

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on April 11, 2019, 07:32:16 PM
>yes, Germany

Germany to halve 2019 economic growth forecast to 0.5 percent - Spiegel - Reuters
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-economy/germany-to-halve-2019-economic-growth-forecast-to-0-5-percent-spiegel-idUKKCN1RN2KD
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: grnidone on April 11, 2019, 08:05:15 PM
?  Hawaii has an immigration issue?  From where?
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on April 12, 2019, 11:00:00 AM
# Hawaii

If you offer FREE STUFF they will come!
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on May 07, 2019, 09:58:29 PM
What Will Cause The Next Recession - Joseph Stiglitz (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyzS7Vp5vaY) - video

tl;dw:
Trump's protectionism, fiscal irresponsibility
China's debt
EU's stagnation
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on May 20, 2019, 08:31:10 PM
Peak Ford

Ford Motor Co to cut 10% of white-collar jobs as part of global restructuring - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ford-motor-layoffs/ford-motor-co-cutting-about-10-of-global-salaried-workforce-idUSKCN1SQ1FV
 
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on May 20, 2019, 10:27:31 PM
Dressbarn is going out of business, to shut all 650 stores
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/dressbarn-is-going-out-of-business-to-shut-all-650-stores.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on May 21, 2019, 10:51:34 AM
https://www.steel-technology.com/projects
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on May 21, 2019, 11:08:24 AM
Jamie Oliver restaurant chains collapse

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48352026?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ocid=socialflow_facebook&ns_source=facebook
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: buckworks on May 21, 2019, 02:25:09 PM
>> Dressbarn is going out of business, to shut all 650 stores

Yikes, I just bought some things from Dressbarn on our recent trip. They were a nice place to shop.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Rupert on May 21, 2019, 05:54:28 PM
British Steel on the brink with thousands of jobs at risk
https://www.ft.com/content/e11c8bee-7b94-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560

British Steel was braced to fall into administration as early as Wednesday with thousands of jobs at risk, after talks with the government over an emergency £75m loan to keep it afloat appeared all but dead.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on May 21, 2019, 11:25:22 PM
Richmond Fed President: We could talk ourselves into a recession
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/15/economy/economic-sentiment-recession/index.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on May 28, 2019, 09:25:00 PM
Dressbarn, CVS, Pier 1 and Topshop shuttering stores, pushing planned closures to 7,150 (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/heres-a-running-list-of-retail-store-closures-announced-in-2019.html)

Quote
Already, more than 7,150 store closures have been announced by U.S. retailers in 2019, according to Coresight Research. And it’s not even June. Last year, Coresight tracked 5,524 store closures, down more than 30% from an all-time record 8,139 closures announced in 2017. Meanwhile, Coresight has tracked 2,726 store opening announcements so far this year.

With the threat of additional tariffs taking effect on consumer-facing goods like apparel and footwear imported from China hanging over retailers, things could get even worse, according to one analyst. UBS’ Jay Sole recently said in a note to clients: “The market is not realizing how much brick & mortar retail is incrementally struggling and how new 25% tariffs could force widespread store closures. ... We think potential 25% tariffs on Chinese imports could accelerate pressure on these [companies’] profit margins to the point where major store closures become a real possibility.”
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on May 29, 2019, 03:15:03 AM
Boots plots hundreds of store closures in new retail blow | Sky News
https://news.sky.com/story/boots-plots-hundreds-of-store-closures-in-new-retail-blow-11730149
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on May 29, 2019, 01:53:45 PM
Consumer Confidence in the United States > ALL TIME HIGH

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence?
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on May 29, 2019, 02:26:32 PM
Yeah, after corecon, I've had to adjust my forecast. I hope my previous timeline in here is way off, and making a bit of a play now that it is off.

Some of this lately is more bricks-morgue related than econ overall.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on May 29, 2019, 02:49:14 PM
> lately is more bricks-morgue related

Agreed. Mass habits & trends are morphing substantially ...restaurants, retail (malls|High St), particularly clothing (anywhere in the bricks, but clothing is in flux across the board online or offline), tourism.  It's hard to say where it's going to land, but Debbie says people are tired of the 70s-90s stuff and want new experiences & products.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on May 29, 2019, 05:09:01 PM
>I've had to adjust my forecast.

Do you think it is farther away?

Consumer Confidence is a lagging indicator.

July 31 2007: Consumer confidence near 6-year high (https://money.cnn.com/2007/07/31/news/economy/consumer_confidence/index.htm?postversion=2007073110)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on May 29, 2019, 05:42:09 PM
>Do you think it is farther away?

Yes, at least in a way. But really, I think we have a new normal. The revenue flows are there, but not making it down to lower & middle class as much any more. Things are adjusting, and when it settles we may be in for a bigger reckoning.

Markets, to me, seem abnormally stable for what has been going on in the world the last 6 months.

I am currently hoping for another good 4-5 years. Not necessarily great, but not bad or tanking.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on May 29, 2019, 06:52:14 PM
Thanks for putting your perspective out there Dras.  I hope you are right, 4 to 5 years of not-bad times would sure be nice.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on May 29, 2019, 07:11:27 PM
I am currently hoping for another good 4-5 years. Not necessarily great, but not bad or tanking.

I was just reading some articles that didn't seem good enough to share, but the brief version is that Mark Zandi of Moody's is saying recession is very unlikely in 2019 and 30% chance by summer 2020. That is roughly the same prediction they made in 2011 for 2012 (which, as you will recall, was not a recession). So Moody's is betting that there is less than even odds before 2021.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on May 30, 2019, 12:47:48 PM
US economy grew at solid 3.1% rate in Q1 | Idaho Statesman
https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/business/article230978488.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on May 30, 2019, 06:10:41 PM
[Home] Sales were 2% lower compared with April 2018, the 16th straight month of annual declines. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/30/april-pending-home-sales-fall-unexpectedly.html)

The continued decline in RV shipments implies the next recession is here. (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4267177-rv-shipments-recession-predictor-refuses-take-month)

Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on May 30, 2019, 09:40:01 PM
The Treasury yield curve, a key recession indicator, is at its widest since 2007 - Axios
https://www.axios.com/yield-curve-inversion-2008-recession-bonds-bbcd9568-e340-4c8b-ae65-241cb5f5cca6.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on May 31, 2019, 08:05:29 PM
And then there is the orange elephant in the room. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/05/31/markets-sink-trump-opens-new-trade-war-front-against-mexico/)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on June 02, 2019, 02:45:45 PM
Peak auto. The pain is just the beginning:

https://www.businessinsider.com/peak-car-38000-layoffs-job-losses-sales-at-auto-makers-2019-5

So does this mean the trend of people just rolling credit to the new ride has stopped?
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on June 04, 2019, 12:25:19 AM
Global Manufacturing Shrinks Amid Wall Street Recession Warning (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-factories-feel-trade-war-020553337.html)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on June 04, 2019, 11:10:43 AM
The Mall Meltdown Continues

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mall-meltdown-continues-11559559600
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on June 07, 2019, 09:28:49 PM
IBM layoffs: Company expected to cut more than 1000 employees | Durham Herald Sun
https://www.heraldsun.com/news/business/article231297813.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on June 07, 2019, 09:42:15 PM
US employers added a weak 75,000 jobs in May - ABC News
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/latest-us-employers-added-weak-75000-jobs-63551382
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on June 07, 2019, 10:21:14 PM
Ouch, that is worse than I was expecting. 
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on June 09, 2019, 04:26:47 PM
Top comment from the seekingalpha article LM linked:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4267177-rv-shipments-recession-predictor-refuses-take-month

RV shipments have declined but not in a manner that is telling us a recession is here or coming anytime soon, (maybe a slow down)? Granted, sales of Motorhomes and Fifth wheel units are seeing a slow down, but overall trailer sales are still in line. Our dealership has been up every month this year vs. YOY numbers from 2018. Last month unit sells were up 10% and F&I profits were up just over 10%.
Our net margins have declined to about 11% average for 2019 vs. 14% in 2018. Margin decline mainly is coming from myself reducing inventory on our lot, but we’ve offset that with F&I profits. My plan started last September and so far has played out very well. We are still in our busy season in the southeast and have a good 4 months left in 2019 to move volume and get our inventory where I want it. Overall our dealership should be inline with 2018 numbers. FYI, we have been buying new units every week, all year long.
As some have read my previous posts, we only sale affordable new and used travel trailers. This is one of the main reasons our dealership has always done well no matter the economy. The main reason I have been deleveraging for 9 months now is my concern on lending. The banks for several years now have been lending to customers with sub 600 credit scores, 30% of our loans are sub prime loans,(15%+ interest rates). My concern is when banks say, “no more loans”, then there goes 30% of our sales.
Regardless of what happens we will come out on the other side still selling campers to folks at affordable prices.
The slow down should only take 6 more months to correct itself and early 2020 dealers should have their inventory where they want it. I personally don’t see RV’s being sold at 2017-2019 volume for several more years, but regardless of the economy they will still be produced.
Departing statement;
As long as banks keep lending to sub prime customers and unemployment stays below 4.5% we will not see a full blown recession, only a slow down.
RSM
29 May 2019, 10:19 PM


Anecdotal yet interesting take.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: rcjordan on June 09, 2019, 04:43:14 PM
>As long as banks keep lending to sub prime customers

So, our economy is dependent upon continuing to milk those poor bastards?  Not a good sign of fundamental strength, imo.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on June 09, 2019, 08:56:07 PM
First in establishing a successful Sub-Prime selling machine you need a manager
that knows the Sub-Prime game, and who possesses two essential characteristics:
Integrity and Motivation.  If the leader does not believe the department can be
built into a raving success, it will never happen.  Check out the manager’s concept
of how far the department can go.  If the manager does not believe that the
department can become a huge success (and it may take some time), find
another Leader.

http://www.automotivedealersnetwork.com/Articles/RHarris/SubPrimeCustomers.html
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on June 09, 2019, 09:06:39 PM
I haven't known real fundamental strength for a while. You?

I thought it was a given they were basically doing the same thing that we already did with the housing crisis, its just autos now. RVs fit that mold too.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on June 09, 2019, 09:25:47 PM
>same thing that we already did with the housing crisis, its just autos now.

There still seems to be some craziness in the housing market too.

To me, this looks like a bomb waiting to go off the moment the job market softens.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Drastic on June 15, 2019, 02:49:40 PM

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-15/tips-for-spotting-a-u-s-recession-before-it-becomes-official
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on June 15, 2019, 03:52:22 PM
There still seems to be some craziness in the housing market too.

This has been on my mind a bit lately.

Back in 2006-2007, there were some things that baffled me.

1. We had come off a period of earning very little. In a rational system, our income would not have qualified us for a car loan. We got approved for up to $2,000,000.

2. We were told that if didn't qualify based on our income, we could do a "no doc" loan and just "estimate" our income to reach a level where we would qualify.

3. People were buying investment properties in our area and I could not figure out how they could possibly make it pencil out. In 2006/2007, they didn't seem to be doing basic due diligence.

#1 and #2 are not true this time.

#3 doesn't seem quite as bad, but people are buying vacant lots that are prohibitive to build on. One just sold and I know the guy who has the excavation contract. He said that just one piece of equipment, which is to drive in a *temporary* retaining wall to hold back the earth while the permanent wall is built, will cost $100,000 for the minimum rental (it has to be brought in from far away - normally for building highways and ports). This isn't even for the house. This is for the parking. It will likely cost $200K to $250K to put in TWO PARKING SPACES!! The house, which is capped by zoning at two bathrooms, will cost over a million dollars all in.

That's just one story. I can think of a lot that has sold three times because it has no access. My friend owns the lot next door. His 35-year-old driveway cuts across the easement in a way that makes this other lot impossible to put in a driveway at a reasonable cost. So last spring, he walks out of his house and finds a realtor and a client standing in his driveway. "How long has this driveway been here?" one of them asks. "35 years, why?" Turns out, the client had bought the lot in the dead of winter not realizing that my friend does not plow that driveway in the winter. He just shovels the steps that lead to the parking space on the road. They literally spent $150,000 on a lot without realizing the driveway would cost $300,000.

Anyway, we saw a lot of this in 2007. Lately, we're seeing a lot of it again. Purchases that just make you shake your head.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on June 15, 2019, 03:55:46 PM
Oh, the 2007 madness resulted in a wave of foreclosures as leveraged buyers who had not done due diligence on what actual rental profits would be couldn't make their loans. Lots of auctions, foreclosures and short sales.

One thing that's different this time is that a lot of the buyers are Chinese with cash they are trying to expatriate, so they are not as sensitive to falling returns. They seem to be looking for long-term safe-havens for cash.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on June 15, 2019, 07:02:00 PM
>Chinese

I think this is probably more of a California thing than the rest of the country; but I think this has its own risks.  China's real estate market is basically insane (https://www.citylab.com/equity/2019/02/china-vacant-apartments-housing-market-bubble-ghost-cities/583528/), I can't even imagine what that will do here once that is accounted for.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Brad on June 15, 2019, 09:12:33 PM
A lot of US farm land is being bought up by foreigners.  I'm assuming it's the same reason now as it was during the Cold War: a safe haven for wealth.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on June 15, 2019, 10:31:34 PM
Thanks Brad, I had no idea. (https://www.npr.org/2019/05/27/723501793/american-soil-is-increasingly-foreign-owned)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: ergophobe on June 16, 2019, 01:03:43 AM
a safe haven for wealth.

And perhaps virtual water exports, though they don't necessarily have to own the land for that.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: littleman on June 17, 2019, 09:57:14 PM
How to Invest and Profit in the Next Recession (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-17/how-to-invest-and-profit-in-the-next-recession)
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on June 18, 2019, 04:12:27 PM
Is it appropriate to add an entire country?

If so Australia, almost 30 years without a recession, second longest run after Japan I think.

It's coming, will come as somewhat as a shock to everybody under 50 odd years old, that's the majority of people by a fair margin.

"The median house price in Sydney has not been less than $1 million since March 2015."

And most of those people have mentally "banked" those "profits", they've gone now. The best hope is a quick, short, sharp recession and maybe a bounce back. I think a long slow decline is more likely, death by a thousand cuts with Asia holding the knives.

From a (my) business perspective a quick, short, sharp recession would be good.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: nffc on June 18, 2019, 04:25:27 PM
>Chinese

I think this is probably more of a California thing than the rest of the country; but I think this has its own risks.  China's real estate market is basically insane (https://www.citylab.com/equity/2019/02/china-vacant-apartments-housing-market-bubble-ghost-cities/583528/), I can't even imagine what that will do here once that is accounted for.

Vancouver worth looking at as an example of what *has* happened already. From experience it's not a China thing, maybe not even an Asian thing but it's certainly a "black" money thing.
Title: Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
Post by: Mackin USA on June 18, 2019, 07:04:35 PM
>Vancouver

When they came they called them "The Yacht People"