Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)

[rcjordan]

We're blowing through a couple of bad tipping points lately.... climate, budget.

By 2020, interest will cost the federal government more than Medicaid. In 2023, the federal government will spend more on interest than defense. In 2025, interest spending will outpace spending on all discretionary programs, excluding defense. Those estimates come from the Congressional Budget Office.

That’s a best-case scenario. The CBO projections don’t include the ramifications from an economic downturn in the next 10 years, which is a virtual certainty. Expenses, such as food stamps and unemployment benefits, would increase. Revenues, especially income taxes, would drop. That would explode the debt at a greater rate, as the government relies on even more deficit spending to make up difference.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-us-will-soon-spend-more-on-interest-than-defense-1535577/

[rcjordan]

Humbug holidays: US retail sales drop 1.2 pct. in December
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/humbug-holidays-us-retail-sales-drop-12-pct-61072690

US wholesale prices dip 0.1 percent in January
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-wholesale-prices-dip-01-percent-january-61072724

US unemployment claims rise by 4,000 to 239,000
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-unemployment-claims-rise-4000-239000-61072761

[nffc]

Germany narrowly avoids recession; US retail sales slide


Yes, Germany.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/feb/14/germany-economy-recession-gdp-eurozone-growt-trade-talks-business-live

[rcjordan]

Climate disasters cost $650 billion over 3 years: Morgan Stanley
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/14/climate-disasters-cost-650-billion-over-3-years-morgan-stanley.html

North America absorbed two-thirds of the global cost of climate disasters over the last three years, Morgan Stanley says. At $415 billion, the price of the disasters is equal to 0.66 percent of North America's GDP

[rcjordan]

Feb 15, 2019: New York Fed Staff Nowcast

• The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2018:Q4 and 1.1% for 2019:Q1.
• News from this week's data releases decreased the nowcast for 2018:Q4 by 0.2 percentage point and decreased the nowcast for 2019:Q1 by 1.1 percentage points.
• Negative surprises from retail sales, capacity utilization, and industrial production data drove the decrease.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast

[littleman]

> https://wearetop10.com/christmas-statistics/

They just made all of that up.

......

Humbug holidays: US retail sales drop 1.2 pct. in December
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/humbug-holidays-us-retail-sales-drop-12-pct-61072690

Your bullshit filter was working well there Mark.

[rcjordan]

No recession but global growth will slow down, Janus Henderson says
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/18/no-recession-but-global-growth-will-slow-down-janus-henderson-says.html

[rcjordan]

Federal data:

"Throughout much of the Midwest, U.S. farmers are filing for chapter 12 bankruptcy protection at levels not seen for at least a decade"

Farm Belt Bankruptcies Are Soaring - WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-one-here-is-gonna-kick-my-buttfarm-belt-bankruptcies-are-soaring-11549468759

[rcjordan]

Big in my feeds.

Average tax refund down 17 percent, IRS reports - POLITICO
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/22/irs-tax-refunds-2019-1207283

[littleman]

I find this one a little odd.  No one seems to be complaining about the 21% flat tax on C corps and how that will translate into more tax burden for individuals and greater debt burden for future generations.  Yet, people are getting angry because they are not having more taxes withheld and then given back to them as a refund.  I guess the average American is incapable of fiscal discipline or thinking things through very much. 

[nffc]

>Your bullshit filter was working well there Mark.

It's a curse not a power.

"...the line, sometimes wrongly attributed to Paxman, that he approaches every interview by asking of himself the question: "Why is this lying ba*tard lying to me?"

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2005/jan/31/mondaymediasection.politicsandthemedia

[rcjordan]

Three-fourths of business economists expect a recession by 2021, survey finds
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nabe-economic-policy-survey-171131067.html

[Brad]

>2021

Well we're about due for another one about then anyway.  Boom - Bust - Boom - Bust.

[ergophobe]

Housing will not cause the 2019 recession says the NYT....

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/19/business/economy/housing-recession.html

Housing Is Already in a Slump. So It (Probably) Can’t Cause a Recession.

A decline in residential real estate has led several recessions. With construction still in a multiyear slump, it seems unlikely to be the culprit this year.


The United States has had 11 recessions since the end of World War II. All but two were preceded by a big decline in the housing market.

Inside that bit of trivia lie some fundamental insights into housing’s outsize role in the business cycle, along with clues to suggest that the economy is on firmer footing than the increasingly pessimistic forecasts make it seem. The gist is this: The United States may or may not enter a recession this year, but if it does, housing is unlikely to be the cause, because it never really recovered in the first place.

Much of the problem is that while job growth has been strong, home prices have gone up faster than incomes.

Prices have gone up so far so fast that even markets previously considered affordable are beyond the reach of many buyers. Home prices have risen by about 50 percent since 2012, according to Zillow, and many of the more affordable markets have shot up even faster. In Phoenix, home values have doubled since 2012, not adjusted for inflation. The Denver market is up 90 percent, Atlanta 84 percent, Nashville 78 percent and Dallas 76 percent. If people can’t afford a home in Texas, where can they?

[littleman]

Fiat Chrysler laying off more than 1,300 workers at Belvidere Jeep plant