Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)

[rcjordan]

>bond market

The yield on 3-month Treasuries rose above the rate on 10-year Treasuries for the first time since 2007

investors should wait for weekly and monthly averages to show an inversion before they read it as a "powerful recession signal."

Dow falls nearly 400 points as recession indicator flashes red - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/22/investing/dow-stock-market-yield-curve/index.html

[I, Brian]

The bond market is flashing its biggest recession sign since before the financial crisis

CNBC is showing their trend

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/a-key-recession-indicator-just-did-something-that-hasnt-happened-in-12-years.html

The BBC reports on this, too:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46530860

[rcjordan]

love the clickbait-ish headline.

Recession Worries Move to DEFCON 3
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/03/will-there-be-a-recession-worries-move-to-defcon-3.html

[Drastic]

lmao DEFCON 3. OH sh## let's get to the bugout vehicle.

/seriously...Can you feel it though? The beginning rumbles always start like this. Not this particular headline but the wild swings and uh-oh predictions.

[Drastic]

I guess my debbie is out on a limb here eh.

[rcjordan]

Debbie's getting the bad vibe, but I'm trying to remain in denial.

[littleman]

>Can you feel it though?

We've had a hell of a run and right now everything is overvalued.  Home prices are starting to slip from their high.  There has been a steady drumbeat of layoffs and closures over the last year.  If you put your ear to the railroad tracks you can hear the train coming.

Added:  By the time you feel it it is already here.

[rcjordan]

>already

U.S. economy shifts into low gear as fiscal boost wanes | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-economy-shifts-into-low-gear-as-fiscal-boost-wanes-idUSKCN1R81FP

Buffett on the economy: 'It looks like things have slowed down'
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/28/buffett-on-the-economy-it-looks-like-things-have-slowed-down.html

[Drastic]

>Added:  By the time you feel it it is already here.

Sorta, but like the train it takes a while to fully slow down from top speed. A year or two for things to get bad all over and fully hit the depth on the front end. I think we've been easing into it since q4 last year.

If I seem to be wishing it on, it's only because I think the sooner the better. The longer it takes the more it's going to hurt.

[littleman]

>hurt

Yeah, we are doing our best to plan for it -- tough going because of self-employment, but we're as lean as we can stand at the moment. 


On the investment side we're  ready to buy in after the major correction.  During the last recession we bought REITs & BDCs at low prices which gave us relatively high dividends for the investment.


BTW: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEP-IRA (US only)

[littleman]

US economy slows down sharply as impact of Trump's tax cuts fades
Government slashes its growth numbers as consumer spending, business investment, government spending and housebuilding all came in worse than had previously been predicted

[Mackin USA]

https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/03/31/trump-white-house-doubles-down-on-threat-to-close-u-s-mexico-border/

Will the economic impact out weigh the costs?

[rcjordan]

>yes, Germany

Germany to halve 2019 economic growth forecast to 0.5 percent - Spiegel - Reuters
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-economy/germany-to-halve-2019-economic-growth-forecast-to-0-5-percent-spiegel-idUKKCN1RN2KD

[grnidone]

?  Hawaii has an immigration issue?  From where?

[Mackin USA]

# Hawaii

If you offer FREE STUFF they will come!