Author Topic: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)  (Read 13209 times)

littleman

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #165 on: August 15, 2019, 01:53:20 PM »
What did you commit to Dras?

rcjordan

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #166 on: August 15, 2019, 01:59:03 PM »
> largest financial commitment

Bank some money and wait for contractor prices to go down while they're scrounging for work.  I saved >$7k on a commercial-grade bulkhead installation at the peak of the last recession.  The contractor was dealing near cost just to keep his crews employed.

ergophobe

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #167 on: August 15, 2019, 06:21:48 PM »
Rising wages

Yes. If we can just hold onto this economy a bit longer, we'll see some significant wage increases. Right now in the US, some big pain points I see are caused by labor shortages. The shuttle system in Yosemite is a mess because they can't find drivers. If the economy holds up for another 9 months, I *hope* we'll see significant wage incentives to get drivers to take that job.

What's interesting in the US is the level of anxiety, which is so out of step with the traditional metrics. I think it basically boils down to many forms of insecurity - job insecurity, scheduling insecurity, benefits insecurity and so on that has people on edge in a way that is atypical for these levels of unemployment.

Mackin USA

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #168 on: August 16, 2019, 12:54:51 PM »
When the unemployment rate gets LOW employers begin to hire the unemployable.
Mr. Mackin

Mackin USA

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #169 on: August 17, 2019, 10:37:40 AM »
Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast –Slight Rise Indicates Traders Downplaying Recession Concerns

https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-084032914.html
Mr. Mackin

littleman

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #170 on: August 17, 2019, 06:42:39 PM »
Quote
Early in the week, the markets were underpinned by optimism over potential production cuts by OPEC. Today, it’s better than expected U.S. retail sales data supporting prices. On Thursday, the U.S. reported that retail sales rose 0.7% in July as consumers bought a range of goods

Betting on the blissful ignorance of the average American consumer to fuel the economy can only work so long.

Mackin USA

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #171 on: August 18, 2019, 12:53:39 PM »
Low unemployment, wage gains and a growing economy can bring on
Mr. Mackin

rcjordan

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #172 on: August 19, 2019, 11:08:20 PM »
RV Shipments are down 2 years in a row, which happened before last 3 recessions.

https://www.newser.com/story/279343/what-rv-shipments-say-about-a-possible-recession.html

Mackin USA

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #173 on: August 20, 2019, 05:29:56 PM »
"We live in an interconnected world"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzKLs8l9UPM
Mr. Mackin

littleman

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #174 on: August 22, 2019, 06:16:00 AM »
US has half a million fewer jobs than believed after big government revision

Quote
The large change means job growth averaged 170,000 a month during the 12-month period, down from the 210,000 initially estimated, according to JPMorgan Chase.

Employment in several industries was revised down especially sharply. Payrolls dropped 175,000 in leisure and hospitality, and 146,000 in retail – two bellwether service sectors that depend heavily on consumer spending, the economy’s main engine.

Employment also fell by 163,000 in professional and business services and 69,000 in education and health services.

Mackin USA

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #175 on: August 22, 2019, 10:02:22 AM »

Recession Fears Are Overblown

The yield curve is no longer a reliable predictor, and other economic indicators are strong.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-fears-are-overblown-11566341495
Mr. Mackin

ergophobe

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #176 on: August 22, 2019, 04:56:37 PM »
The yield curve is no longer a reliable predictor

Highly debated,  but possibly true for many reasons. I guess two years from now we'll know (the Great Recession began 23 months after the yield curve inverted)
https://www.npr.org/2019/08/21/753185863/episode-934-two-yield-curve-indicators

Mackin USA

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #177 on: August 23, 2019, 10:03:01 AM »
Yep, possible July 2021
Mr. Mackin

ergophobe

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #178 on: August 23, 2019, 03:49:13 PM »
I'd rather we don't have a recession for another 10 years, but if it's going to come, I wish it would come right now.

littleman

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #179 on: August 23, 2019, 04:01:51 PM »
Our massive debt is going to make the coming recession that much more painful.

Why skyrocketing federal debt will mean the next recession is harder to overcome