Author Topic: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)  (Read 18520 times)

rcjordan

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #195 on: September 23, 2019, 09:37:17 PM »
>seems most are oblivious

I'm not seeing any changes in behavior, either. 

That said, I'd think those left stranded by the Thomas Cook collapse *might* be a little more wary now.

ergophobe

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #196 on: September 24, 2019, 12:44:23 AM »
In my own little circle it seems most are oblivious.

In my own little circle, there is an uptick in people asking me what I remember about how the local hotel and vacation rental industry did during the Great Recession. Nobody was asking me about that a year ago.

I've mentioned this before, but I wonder to what extent recession worry becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Now a lot of people in Trumpworld seem to be asking the same question. Here's three examples from, respectively, conservative, center-right and center-left media...

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/trump-sounds-the-alarm-on-a-conspiracy-against-economic-growth/
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-recession-commentary-accuses-media-of-trying-to-create-one-2019-8-1028463363
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/business/economy/recession-trump.html
et cetera

I don't agree with Trump's allegation ("the media wants a recession"), but I think his basic observation is probably right - we could talk ourselves into a recession. The thing is, he has been well-served so far by using confrontation with "the media" to rally the base. I think he's playing with fire here though - by talking about recession and making accusations about a media conspiracy, he's keeping the topic in the news, which is probably the worst thing an incumbent president can do.

So to me it looks like there are two risks, one that Trump sees and one that he apparently doesn't.

1. By talking about recession enough, we could cause one, which will make re-election harder. He sees and fears this one, and rightly so.

2. By talking about recession, even to deny it, he makes people nervous and pessimistic on the economy and traditionally that is bad for incumbents. So if he doesn't learn a little restraint for once, he could face a situation where he runs for re-election in the midst of an excellent economy with no signs of recession and nevertheless loses the election because of the economy.

He needs to read George Lakoff's book, "Don't Think of Elephant." He keeps telling people, "News of a recession is fake news," failing to understand that the only word people hear in that sentence is "recession."
« Last Edit: September 24, 2019, 12:55:39 AM by ergophobe »

littleman

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #197 on: September 24, 2019, 08:44:11 PM »

A majority of the ultra-wealthy expect a recession by 2020 and are hunkering down, says UBS survey

Quote
  •    UBS surveyed 360 global family offices with an average family wealth of $1.2 billion.
  •    The result showed 55% of family offices see a recession by 2020.
  •    To mitigate risks, 45% of them are already adjusting their portfolios, including shifting to bonds and real estate, while 42% are increasing their cash reserves.

littleman

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #198 on: October 01, 2019, 04:06:32 PM »
US manufacturing survey shows worst reading in a decade

Quote

The U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index from the Institute for Supply Management came in at 47.8% in September, the lowest since June 2009, marking the second consecutive month of contraction. Any figure below 50% signals a contraction.

The new export orders index was only 41%, the lowest level since March 2009, down from the August reading of 43.3%, ISM data showed.

We have now tariffed our way into a manufacturing recession in the U.S. and globally,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2019, 04:12:14 PM by littleman »

ergophobe

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #199 on: October 01, 2019, 04:28:09 PM »
>>worst reading in a decade

What are the chances we are already in a recession?

What are the chances that the trade war is rolled back in 2020 and we never go into a recession?

Meanwhile, this is in my inbox from Visit California (state tourism board)
Quote
Take a moment to view Year in Review FY18/19, to reflect on statewide marketing accomplishments and record-breaking tourism impacts – a collective success for the industry.

littleman

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #200 on: October 01, 2019, 05:41:38 PM »
Quote
What are the chances we are already in a recession?

What are the chances that the trade war is rolled back in 2020 and we never go into a recession?

None of us are clairvoyant, but the trade war is not solely responsible for the slowdown, it just hastened it.   So, I doubt that rolling back tariffs will do much at this point other than push the timeline back a bit.  My bigger concern is the record breaking deficit gives us very little fiscal wiggle room to deal with the next crisis. 

ergophobe

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #201 on: October 01, 2019, 09:14:46 PM »
Low interest rates take away a big tool as well. In fact, the only tool left once interest rates bottom out is massive deficit spending, which should make you even more afraid of those deficits, especially in places where the rate is already basically zero and supra-national bodies can dictate how much deficit spending they can do.

rcjordan

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #202 on: October 01, 2019, 10:32:13 PM »
Manufacturers are mired in their deepest slump since the Great Recession - CBS News

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/manufacturing-recession-manufacturers-are-in-their-deepest-slump-since-the-recession/

Luckily, I guess, we don't have much manufacturing in my region of the state.  I'm still not clear as to the end result of all the farm commodity tariff brouhaha.  Riding by, things appear to be normal and yields look good.  But the farmers may be operating at a loss on borrowed money, FAIK.  I don't see as much shiny new high-$$$$ equipment as in previous years, though.


<added>
Just saw this.


Deere to lay off 163 U.S. workers as trade war dents equipment demand - Reuters

"The layoffs come weeks after the company said it would reduce production by 20% at its facilities in Illinois and Iowa in the second of half of the year to keep inventory in line with retail demand."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-deere-layoffs/deere-to-lay-off-163-u-s-workers-as-trade-war-dents-equipment-demand-idUSKBN1WG4OW
« Last Edit: October 02, 2019, 01:11:38 AM by rcjordan »

rcjordan

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #203 on: October 03, 2019, 03:53:39 PM »
UK economy headed for recession after services shrink unexpectedly

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/uk-economy-headed-for-recession-after-services-shrink-unexpectedly-pmi-udwy2ayjqsfzygr.html

<added>

US stocks sink following weak services sector report

"The services sector, which makes up the bulk of the U.S. economy, grew at a slower pace in September than economists had forecast. The weak report follows disappointing figures on business hiring on Wednesday and a dismal manufacturing report on Tuesday."

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-stocks-sink-weak-services-sector-report-66033141
« Last Edit: October 03, 2019, 04:33:08 PM by rcjordan »

ergophobe

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #204 on: October 03, 2019, 07:17:57 PM »
I'm sure other's have checked, but I'm not sure anyone has posted, at least not recently

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F06bmj  -- search interest in Recession (topic)

Dec 2007 = 100
August 2019 = 76

Aug 2011 and Dec 2018 hit 30

The last time we saw 76 was Mar 2009 on the downslide from the recession

ergophobe

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #205 on: October 03, 2019, 07:22:04 PM »
If you restrict it to "Finance" you can see that the chatter peaks right at the beginning and the "during" chatter is less than when looking at search in general

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?cat=7&date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F06bmj

Basically, there's a massive peak when the recession actually starts and then there is another peak around the time the recession is *declared*, but the second peak is much smaller when looking just at finance.

By that measure, Google Trends number for August was the highest number by a large margin since December 2007.

ergophobe

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #206 on: October 03, 2019, 07:29:24 PM »
Meanwhile, over at the New York Times

Quote
For one brief, terrifying moment this summer, the word “recession” was on everyone’s lips — the stuff of television segments, front-page articles and Google searches.

Then, just as abruptly, everything started to look pretty much fine.

....

But it would be premature to declare a clean bill of health....

The latest, starkest reminder was a new manufacturing number published Tuesday. It showed the sector was contracting in September at its fastest rate since 2009....

...the manufacturing industry in the United States has added an average of only 3,000 jobs a month, down from 25,000 a month as recently as the spring of 2018.

...Spending on nonresidential construction fell 0.4 percent in August
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/02/upshot/recession-risks-economic-outlook.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article


Meanwhile, Washington Post reports this:
Quote
Others even speculated that reports about presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders’s health might have sparked the sell-off.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/10/02/dow-plunges-more-than-points-wall-street-extends-october-losses/

which mostly goes to prove that lots of people who speculate about the economy are untethered from reality (which may be true of me too, but WaPo is not interviewing me!)
« Last Edit: October 03, 2019, 07:33:18 PM by ergophobe »

rcjordan

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Drastic

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Mackin USA

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Re: Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)
« Reply #209 on: October 07, 2019, 02:36:06 PM »
ROBOTS should be a MEGA thread of its own.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2019, 02:38:03 PM by Mackin USA »
Mr. Mackin