Recession 2019/2020 Mega-thread (putteth all thy strange eruption in h're)

[littleman]

An interesting idea.

COVID-19 Broke the Economy. What If We Don’t Fix It?

Instead of reopening society for the sake of the economy, what if we continued to work less, buy less, make less—for the sake of [ourselves and] the planet?

[Travoli]

>what if we continued to work less, buy less, make less—for the sake of [ourselves and] the planet?

It's easier to start wars

[ergophobe]

I just read the teaser sample of James Suzman, "Affluence Without Abundance" - without reading more than the Kindle free sample, he goes over Keynes' prediction that we would be working 15 hours per week now and the anthropological research that shows that people generally "worked" 15 hours per week before the invention of agriculture. They were also healthier and lived longer than people in agricultural societies until recently.

That said, the fact is that it is horrid to be poor in a rich society. There are many things that are mostly no longer allowed, like having no address, hunting and fishing for your food and so on. So there is a terror that goes along with poverty in agricultural and industrial societies that makes economic collapse particularly scary.

https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/affluence-without-abundance-9781632865748/
https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/books/affluence-without-abundance-the-disappearing-world-of-the-bushmen-by-james-suzman-1.3246773

You can think if it as an update to Marshall Sahlins' "original affluent society" idea and the criticisms of that work, which Suzman contends both overstated their cases.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_affluent_society

[littleman]

Millennials never recovered fully since the Great Recession and now Covid-19 is bringing a painful economic reckoning.

[ergophobe]

The economy is a central example. Its surprisingly rapid growth in May and early June initially seemed encouraging, Ben points out. But it now seems to have been a sign that Americans were resuming normal activity in ways that spread the virus. Now the virus’s resurgence is causing new shutdowns that will delay a true recovery.

-- From the NYT "Monday Briefing" newsletter

[Mackin USA]

Deep European Recession Forecast for 2020

https://www.statista.com/chart/22213/ec-gdp-growth-forecast/

[littleman]

Don’t the Markets Know We’re Living in a Disaster Movie?

[ergophobe]

>>Disaster movie

I'm much more nervous now than I was in March when the market was crashing. The initial drop in the market seemed to be a reasonable response to an already overvalued market and an uncertain future. I hoped and bet that much of the uncertainty was priced in and things would stabilize at 25-30% off the peak and take 3-5 years to crawl back to pre-Covid levels if everything went well.

Meanwhile, in the US, everything is not going well, and yet the 3-5 months turned out to be 3-5 months. The author is right - THAT is scary.

[rcjordan]

Homebuilders just saw the strongest June sales since the last housing boom as pandemic pushes more buyers to the suburbs
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/homebuilders-just-saw-the-strongest-june-sales-since-the-last-housing-boom.html

[Brad]

>sales

True here.  One of our builders had a rock solid offer and sale within 4 hours of putting a newly built home on the MLS.

Existing homes are going fast too.  My neighbors sold their home within 48 hours.

The problem is nobody knows how long this will last.

I'm hearing reports that lumber and materials are in short supply.   A lot of smaller general contractors and sub-contractors went out of business in 2008 - 2009 this has led to a shortage of both.

[rcjordan]

>reports that lumber

I saw a headline on short supply of lumber a few days ago. A quick search confirms.

Coronavirus pandemic causes shortage in lumber supplies
https://www.wflx.com/2020/07/06/coronavirus-pandemic-causes-shortage-lumber-supplies/

Living on the edge of lumber (pine) country, I can tell you that the number of log trucks on the highway seems to be down.

[buckworks]

>reports that lumber

One of my sons is the manager of a lumber yard in rural Manitoba and he says they're getting hit from both ends: increased demand for many products ... especially items relating to home improvement ... but supply lines not keeping up. Prices are so uncertain that when he provides a quote for materials it's only valid for a few hours, then subject to revision if prices have changed.

Inventory management is a major challenge when things are so volatile over and above seasonal fluctuations.

[rcjordan]

"worst in history"

The U.S. economy plunged by a record-shattering 32.9% annual rate last quarter, and the coronavirus pandemic is still cutting a path of destruction.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-us-economic-plunge-20200730-t25tj4pzdvcmrirdufstpla2nm-story.html

[littleman]

Yet the Dow is down just 225.92 points today.  So odd.

[Mackin USA]

GOLD & Bitcoin are UP