Author Topic: Techno Job-Killers  (Read 9931 times)

ergophobe

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Re: Techno Job-Killers
« Reply #15 on: January 27, 2017, 05:46:23 PM »
Ergophobe termed it better -I forget the phrase he used- but having a job that deals with unpredictable interactions is the most tech-proof, I think.

Sadly, no, I  guess I'm a pessimist. I believe I stated the negative, saying something like if your job consisted principally of any or all of the three following items, you're toast:
1. repetitive tasks
2. prediction
3. pattern recognition

So in the white-collar world this includes radiologist (pattern), legal document review (pattern), financial advisors (prediction), doctors whose primary role is diagnostic, such as family doctors or dermatologist (pattern, prediction), processing insurance claims (repetitive), the simplest news stories (pattern).

Even surgeons are at risk but this is a harder problem because of combining so many things - difficult pattern recognition, precise physical skill, variation in the repetition, but it's coming - machines already suture more precisely but slower than surgeons and let's face it, the speed advantage can't last more than a couple of years (and speed is super important in surgery).

All these professions will always have jobs. Just like some privileged few still make a living as poets. Just like there will always be jobs for live musicians, but not as many as if recording technology hadn't been invented. It was only a few generations ago that if you wanted a party with dancing, you had to have some live music, even if it was only the whole group clapping in time.

Most white-collar workers, if they even see this at all, think this is a problem for Amazon warehouse workers and truck drivers, but not ME.

And by the way, old news for everyone here, but...

- financial planner/advisor: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-13/morgan-stanley-analyst-says-robo-advisers-are-one-of-the-major-threats-to-the-industry
- radiology: http://www.radiologytoday.net/archive/rt0516p12.shtml
- general medical diagnostics: https://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/30/i-b-m-s-watson-goes-to-medical-school/
- nuts and bolts journalism of business, earnings reports, high-school sports -
  -- https://www.wired.com/2015/10/this-news-writing-bot-is-now-free-for-everyone/
  -- http://www.theverge.com/2015/1/29/7939067/ap-journalism-automation-robots-financial-reporting
- insurance claims: https://qz.com/875491/japanese-white-collar-workers-are-already-being-replaced-by-artificial-intelligence
- surgery:https://getpocket.com/a/read/1278456772
« Last Edit: January 27, 2017, 05:49:25 PM by ergophobe »

rcjordan

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Re: Techno Job-Killers
« Reply #16 on: January 27, 2017, 06:44:44 PM »
Well, today must be "Kill-A-Customer-Service-Rep" Day.

Quote
HDFC Bank’s interactive humanoid IRA (Intelligent Robotic Assistant) which has been deployed at their Kamla Mills branch in Mumbai will guide customers to the various counters. This includes cash deposit, foreign exchange, loans among others in the first phase. IRA’s language of communication will be English in the first phase.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/first-look-a-humanoid-will-help-you-carry-out-bank-transactions-at-this-hdfc-branch_8358621.html

ergophobe

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Re: Techno Job-Killers
« Reply #17 on: January 27, 2017, 11:29:05 PM »
As far from human as that is, I think it's one step over the edge into Uncanny Valley.

Translation: that weirds me out

ergophobe

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Re: Techno Job-Killers
« Reply #18 on: January 27, 2017, 11:57:58 PM »
And now poker players are screwed
http://gizmodo.com/why-it-matters-that-human-poker-pros-are-getting-trounc-1791565551

What does this do to online gaming? How do you verify that someone is not using an AI?

rcjordan

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Re: Techno Job-Killers
« Reply #19 on: January 28, 2017, 02:51:28 PM »
Surgical robot makes highly precise eye injection possible

https://www.engadget.com/2017/01/28/surgical-robot-highly-precise-eye-surgery/

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"I'd rather have a sharp needle in the eye." --NFFC
« Last Edit: January 28, 2017, 02:53:01 PM by rcjordan »

Rooftop

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Re: Techno Job-Killers
« Reply #20 on: January 28, 2017, 03:18:28 PM »
Turning thus around then,  how to you improve your kids chances of surviving the ooh collapse?  Lots of articles (like the one linked)  talking about this,  but not much solid advice.

My kids are 8 and 6. I try to fuel their imaginations,  give them a broad understanding of the world, teach them to ask questions and solve problems.  (whilst also doing more to save for their futures than I've ever managed to do for myself).

Doesn't feel like enough though.

rcjordan

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Re: Techno Job-Killers
« Reply #21 on: January 28, 2017, 03:34:04 PM »
If you missed it, take a look at the members-only thread
Oxford Martin School study ranks 700 jobs in decending order of probability of being eaten by robot overlords.
http://th3core.com/talk/members-only/this-oxford-martin-school-study-ranks-700-jobs-in-ascending-order-of-probability/

It needs work, maybe some tagging of vulnerabilities we see but the authors missed, but it's a start.

Secondly, recognizing that I'm going to have biases, preconceptions, and other shortfalls, I think it's important to go with what I know rather than waiting for clairvoyance or divine intervention.  So, in my case, tech or maybe construction.

ergophobe

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Re: Techno Job-Killers
« Reply #22 on: January 28, 2017, 07:10:44 PM »
Turning thus around then,  how to you improve your kids chances of surviving the ooh collapse?  Lots of articles (like the one linked)  talking about this,  but not much solid advice.

My kids are 8 and 6. I try to fuel their imaginations,  give them a broad understanding of the world, teach them to ask questions and solve problems.  (whilst also doing more to save for their futures than I've ever managed to do for myself).

The hard thing about predicting the future is that it hasn't happened yet.  Translation: my expertise is with a small slice of the past, not the future.

Other caveat - I would never take career advice from me. But to throw a few things out there.

Encourage expansive thinking. So "problem solving" can be reductive or expansive. In other words, you can "reduce" to a solution (patient exhibits these three symptoms; this happened, that happened and engine stopped). That sort of reductive problem solving won't need humans in the near future. Then there's expansive problem solving where you expand up to solutions: you have a board, some wire and a hammer, what can you build with these? I think this sort of problem solving will be AI assisted (generating options), but human-driven

Unpredictibility - mixing things that don't seem to go together. AI might excel at this because of pure horsepower, but the value of the practice will probably endure

Creative - it's going to be a long time until an AI can write a really compelling short story or novel, or create a painting that captures the imagination.

Flexibility - ability to change and adapt to circumstances. Obviously. I think parents pass that response to circumstances to their kids whether they want to or not.

Diversity - this is probably the top lesson that ecosystems show us. Life survives in hostile environments because of diversity. Any one trick might get automated today, but no four tricks are likely to get automated at the same time. Generally speaking, the top scholars I know who end up leading their fields and are the ultimate experts on a tiny slice of the knowledge turn out to be surprisingly diverse in their lives and hobbies and reading habits and the scholars I know who seem to have no other interests never seem to make it. So I think that's good advice for a happy life even in the absence of automation.


Human-centered. Music sharing destroyed revenue from recorded music in most cases, but a few years ago Springsteen sold out a tour at $200 a ticket min because people want an authentic experience of another human being. We see this in photography. It is almost impossible to make a living selling photos anymore, but people will pay a lot of money to do workshops with photographers who will take them to a cool place and teach them how to photograph it. So whereas record sales and photo sales were the main income and concerts and wokshops were promotional, now the recorded song and image have almost no value, but the in-person experience does. So always be looking for what it is that you can provide that cannot be provided virtually. In other words, being people that have something to offer and a disposition that makes them nice to be with, will probably count for more than, say, programming skills, in 10-20 years.

And again... I don't have kids, have spent my life studying the past not the future and would be one of the last people I would go to for career advice.... And with that I'll leave it to you to assess the value of those comments :-)
« Last Edit: January 28, 2017, 07:15:57 PM by ergophobe »

rcjordan

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Re: Techno Job-Killers
« Reply #23 on: January 28, 2017, 07:24:22 PM »
As for some sort of plan, at their ages I'd concentrate on activities that help overcome stage fright and encourage developing public speaking as a skill --dance, music lessons, individual (not team) sports, acting. The two of my daughters who stuck with ballet (and those damn recitals) have had an easier time developing a professional career. I don't think it's coincidental.  Public speaking is one of the arts that can be learned, so they say. I know for a fact that the lack of that ability has cost me dearly.

rcjordan

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Re: Techno Job-Killers
« Reply #24 on: January 28, 2017, 07:33:02 PM »

rcjordan

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Re: Techno Job-Killers
« Reply #25 on: January 28, 2017, 07:44:40 PM »
<added 2>
Sent this to my daughter yesterday (girl scout leader)

https://www.raspberrypi.org/blog/raspberry-pi-at-scouts-wintercamp/

She has 2 daughters
http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-girls-boys-brilliant-20170126-story.html

Quote
"There are all kinds of beginner student explorer programs out there
now.  Some are very, very rudimentary just to give them a feel.
Materials costs can be low. A Raspeberry Pi -a real computer- is under
$30. Could be shared or maybe get grants.  Ping someone involved in
that get-girls-interested-in-STEM program at the Citadel, maybe.

Just ideas. But you know that girls-can't-do-math-or-tech is a problem
that needs addressing."


ergophobe

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Re: Techno Job-Killers
« Reply #26 on: January 29, 2017, 05:08:15 PM »
>>developing public speaking

There we go! That's a good, practical example of what I was trying to grope towards in my "human centered" point, but (perhaps not being a parent), concrete ideas for kids weren't coming for me. It's not just that it's helpful to engineers to be able to speak in public, it's that when all the non-AI engineering jobs are gone, there will still be people speaking public.

rcjordan

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Re: Techno Job-Killers
« Reply #27 on: January 31, 2017, 11:46:47 AM »
What's the current ROI on this new robotic barista, I wonder?  Worth a watch, if you haven't seen it yet.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2017/01/30/robotic-barista-now-serving-really-fast/95888780/

Rupert

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Re: Techno Job-Killers
« Reply #28 on: January 31, 2017, 03:23:51 PM »
Quote
Starbucks, with more than 25,000 stores, has no plans for robotic baristas. It stresses a person-to-person connection between its service partners (reps) and customers, according to company policy.
yeah yeah... for how long I wonder.
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Re: Techno Job-Killers
« Reply #29 on: January 31, 2017, 04:00:13 PM »
Quote
Starbucks, with more than 25,000 stores, has no plans for robotic baristas. It stresses a person-to-person connection between its service partners (reps) and customers, according to company policy.
yeah yeah... for how long I wonder.

I would be happy if all fast food restaurants moved to using robots. A taco-bot would probably mess up my Taco Bell order a lot less than the humans working there.