Author Topic: Schwab starts talking about recession  (Read 782 times)

rcjordan

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Re: Schwab starts talking about recession
« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2018, 07:14:40 PM »
Pretty good read.

It's Time To Start Worrying About The Housing Market Again

https://www.financialsamurai.com/time-to-start-worrying-about-the-housing-market-again/

ergophobe

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Re: Schwab starts talking about recession
« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2018, 08:55:13 PM »
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Too much debt is really what will kill you if we ever return to hard times.

And maybe even if we don't return to hard times!

rcjordan

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Re: Schwab starts talking about recession
« Reply #17 on: November 28, 2018, 04:46:06 PM »
For the American Economy, Storm Clouds on the Horizon - The New York Times

 “The auto sales cycle has peaked and the housing cycle also has peaked.”

If interest rates continue to rise, she said, “I don’t really see how the economy can keep powering ahead.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/28/us/politics/us-economy-health-recession.html

(Keeping interest rates artificially low is a subsidy.)

ergophobe

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Re: Schwab starts talking about recession
« Reply #18 on: November 29, 2018, 05:31:58 PM »
(Keeping interest rates artificially low is a subsidy.)

That's an interesting one. I don't think it's quite a subsidy like the home mortgage deduction is. It's more like the subsidy that let's people pollute during production and not worrying about the cleanup. That is, it's an "externality."

Would you agree with that? I'm trying to work out in my head who pays for artificially low interest rates and how they pay.

littleman

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Re: Schwab starts talking about recession
« Reply #19 on: November 29, 2018, 06:52:03 PM »
Low interest rates penalize savers at the expense of helping borrowers.  It also inflates home values.

rcjordan

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Re: Schwab starts talking about recession
« Reply #20 on: December 03, 2018, 11:40:02 PM »

rcjordan

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Re: Schwab starts talking about recession
« Reply #21 on: December 04, 2018, 10:03:36 PM »
Circle the wagons, boys.

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the stock market declines in tandem with, or just after the curve inverts, but before a recession actually begins.

The economist who discovered the yield curve's predictive powers says he's getting worried

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/the-economist-who-discovered-the-yield-curves-predictive-powers-says-hes-getting-worried.html

ergophobe

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Re: Schwab starts talking about recession
« Reply #22 on: December 07, 2018, 07:43:09 PM »
>>yield curve

The problem I have with all these articles is that they do not mention how often the yield curve inverts and there is no recession (which I know has happened, but I don't know how often).

The inverted yield curve precedes recession by up to 24 months. You know what else precedes recession by up to 24 months? Congressional elections. Every recession in US history has occurred within 24 months of a congressional election. We just had one last month. Should I be worried?

Stats like this just drive me insane. Or maybe I should say journalists who don't understand squat about stats drive me insane. In itself, the fact that every recession has been preceded by an inverted yield curve is meaningless.

Other things that precede recessions by between 24 hours and 24 months
 - sunrise
 - sunset
 - summer
 - winter
 - the Olympics (sometimes it's the summer Olympics and sometimes it's the winter Olympics that precede recession by 24 months or less; once it was both)

ergophobe

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Re: Schwab starts talking about recession
« Reply #23 on: December 07, 2018, 07:44:16 PM »
Here we go. This is what I'm looking for
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4199390-inverted-u-s-yield-curve-recession-fast

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In some cases, the US yield curve inverted but wasn't followed by a recession. In the late 1980s, for example, the yield curve inverted and then steepened again, before inverting again later on before recession. The curve also inverted very briefly in the late 1990s, too, and again in 2005-2006.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4093701-yield-curve-now-useless-recession-indicator

Despite the titles, the articles go on to say they think you can still use the yield curve, but you have to be careful because quantitative easing has distorted this indicator.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 07:48:54 PM by ergophobe »

ergophobe

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Re: Schwab starts talking about recession
« Reply #24 on: December 11, 2018, 06:43:51 PM »
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/07/business/housing-boom-how-long-can-it-last.html
The New York TimesBy ROBERT J. SHILLER
The Housing Boom Is Already Gigantic. How Long Can It Last?
The economist Robert Shiller says the rise in housing prices is the third biggest since 1913. The biggest boom ended disastrously in 2006.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-05/total-market-pain-is-worst-since-1972-as-investor-anxiety-mounts
Bloomberg.com
It’s the Worst Time to Make Money in Markets Since 1972
Market statisticians are falling over each other in 2018 to describe the pain being felt across asset classes. One venerable shop frames it this way: Things haven’t been