Author Topic: There are 1.2 million missing retail workers because  (Read 20812 times)

Travoli

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Re: There are 1.2 million missing retail workers because
« Reply #15 on: September 05, 2016, 11:06:57 PM »
>close to what was in the movie Elysium

Reality follows fiction?



Anti-aging compounds being developed by Elysium Health.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/beyond-resveratrol-the-anti-aging-nad-fad/#


littleman

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Re: There are 1.2 million missing retail workers because
« Reply #16 on: September 06, 2016, 12:16:19 AM »
Next phase: Bread and Circuses.

You made me look up that saying Trav :).  We're probably not that far away right now if you look at the combined effect of the entertainment industries.

Ergo, you brought up some very important points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elysium
Quote
Elysium or the Elysian Fields (Ancient Greek: Ἠλύσιον πεδίον, Ēlısion pedíon) is a conception of the afterlife that developed over time and was maintained by some Greek religious and philosophical sects and cults. Initially separate from the realm of Hades, admission was reserved for mortals related to the gods and other heroes. Later, it expanded to include those chosen by the gods, the righteous, and the heroic, where they would remain after death, to live a blessed and happy life, and indulging in whatever employment they had enjoyed in life.

I suspect that both uses of the name has to do with the concept of a haven for the elite/privileged.

Ergo, great points.  Growing up in the 70/80 I thought that democracy and capitalism were basically synonyms, or at least that one required the other.  We've seen examples of relatively strong democracies with near socialist economies (the Scandinavian countries).   We've also seen extreme capitalistic countries without democracy (modern Vietnam, China).  Honestly, I don't see any of that as the answer to these coming challenges.  The cynic in me thinks that Trav is right in that the path forward is to keep the population feed and numb with mindless entertainment.

My wife and I took our younger kids to the Jelly Belly factory, it is probably the fifth time I've been through that place in the last 14 years.  With every visit they have made jumps in mechanization.  This last visit was the first time I saw this machine they called the 'Spider Packer', it could pack boxes with items (neatly) at a blazingly fast rate.  That job use to be done by humans before the machine, but this thing could pack candy bags into boxes faster than several people.  We all know the robot takeover is coming, but it is something to see it in action.

Here is a clip of a two arm robot, since the video they've installed a third arm to speed up its capacity.

rcjordan

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Re: There are 1.2 million missing retail workers because
« Reply #17 on: January 20, 2017, 02:38:41 AM »
Amazon is going to kill more American jobs than China did

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-is-going-to-kill-more-american-jobs-than-china-did-2017-01-19

Love the title.

ergophobe

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Re: There are 1.2 million missing retail workers because
« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2017, 04:23:18 AM »
We really need to start hashing out how capitalism will survive the end of low skill labor.

Since this thread popped back up, I have to say - we have to stop thinking of automation like this. It's not *low* *skill* labor, it's any labor that involves any of
 - repetition
 - pattern matching
 - prediction

So, for example, by the "low skill" criterion, we would expect medical doctor to be safe, but in fact many specialties will contract and employment prospects for radiologists are just abysmal.

Rupert

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Re: There are 1.2 million missing retail workers because
« Reply #19 on: January 20, 2017, 06:55:52 AM »
Re-reading this thread I had a glimpse of the human race in its life cycle, from a few animals, to an explosive growth of 7 billion.

The small social hunter/gatherers, fighting with each other occasionally over turf, sexual partners, moving on for more room, then to the industrial revolution, swarming together like hives, to the loss of purpose for the workers....

I cannot see it ending well this morning.  


I think I need another cup of coffee to get my head in a better place.

(Added... probably visiting a dementia home yesterday did not help.)
... Make sure you live before you die.

rcjordan

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Re: There are 1.2 million missing retail workers because
« Reply #20 on: January 20, 2017, 12:23:34 PM »
>pattern matching

Bingo!

Aside:  Long ago in the pre-internet age, an interviewer asked me how I was able to work in so many seemingly unrelated fields. My answer was "I see I'm good with patterns." He didn't get it.

>medical doctor to be safe, but in fact many specialties will contract

Human pharmacists have been out-performed by robots for about a decade now. We're just protecting them because we're afraid (and job politics), imo.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2017, 04:57:23 PM by rcjordan »

ergophobe

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Re: There are 1.2 million missing retail workers because
« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2017, 04:38:22 PM »
Human pharmacists have been out-performed by robots for about a decade now. We're just protecting them because we're afraid (and job politics), imo.

This has also been true for basic medical diagnosis for years. We would be better off with a technician running a smart system than with an MD pulling from his/her brain in most cases. You could argue that we'd be best off with an MD running a smart system, but the medical profession isn't there yet in their thinking.

rcjordan

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Rupert

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Re: There are 1.2 million missing retail workers because
« Reply #23 on: March 16, 2017, 08:27:56 AM »
OK, so in the UK, we have the highest employment levels for a long time.

We also have the highest number of zero hour contracts. (not sure if this is relevant but it might be)

So if all these jobs keep disappearing... you know where this goes.

It might be interesting to see a graph of the bands of pay, and the number of people in that band and how it changes over time.  Whether that pay needs to be normalised for inflation I don't know.

What I think I am trying to say is what is the real human cost?  I am not sure it really is loss of jobs, but it might well be personal wealth.  I am sure the average is still high, but as we know, the top 5% keep getting more, so perhaps in a Europe and America, the lower half really are getting poorer.
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nffc

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Re: There are 1.2 million missing retail workers because
« Reply #24 on: March 16, 2017, 04:25:34 PM »
>average is still high

See attached. Average has been falling for a while, not predicted to get back to 2007 levels until 2022.

>what is the real human cost

People in Asia have seen a huge rise in standard of living.

Rupert

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Re: There are 1.2 million missing retail workers because
« Reply #25 on: March 16, 2017, 04:34:13 PM »
Interesting.  The Title says " Average weekly Earnings regular Pay".  Am I right in assuming thats hourly paid, so the old blue collar?

Also, Asias growth, what is the cause of that do you think over the last 17 years? Thats a little unexpected to me.  I had assumed that the world was hurting in the last 7-9 years.

Overall, thats a good readjustment, the only wrong part from a society POV is the top % in the west getting richer at the expense of the poorer then.
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rcjordan

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Re: There are 1.2 million missing retail workers because
« Reply #26 on: March 16, 2017, 04:58:48 PM »
>asia

Fewer kids, for starters

Scroll down to the table Total fertility rates (with projections). Vietnam has dropped from 3.3 to 1.7 over last 25 years.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-39211144

rcjordan

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Re: There are 1.2 million missing retail workers because
« Reply #27 on: March 16, 2017, 05:08:13 PM »
<added>

>asia

[2] Adoption of containerized freight.

[3] Massive access to western markets, primarily due to wage advantage. Factory production first, now straight to retail via internet.

nffc

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Re: There are 1.2 million missing retail workers because
« Reply #28 on: March 16, 2017, 05:32:49 PM »
>Am I right in assuming thats hourly paid, so the old blue collar?

I don't think so, I think its just the measurement they decided to go with, I think its everybody.

>Asias growth, what is the cause

Remember I'm not that smart, this is just what I think.

Globalisation exposed the fundamental weaknesses of the western economies and to be frank the western workforce. Or to put it another way we went crazy buying cheap stuff from China, so crazy that we sort of exported our wealth/jobs. We then didn't have enough money to continue going crazy, so we made borrowing super easy. We borrowed money to export our jobs, cool huh?

Thats where we are, what we have failed to do is adapt to this change, I think we need a fundamental reset on what we in the west consider to be poverty.

Maybe the top 1% are to blame, we need attack them, tax them, make them suffer.

If you earn £25,000 a year you are in the top 1%.

littleman

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Re: There are 1.2 million missing retail workers because
« Reply #29 on: March 16, 2017, 05:58:51 PM »
So, what happens in the next 20 years?  The West borrowed money to the tune of trillions.  Much of that debt has been bought up by the Asian tigers.  So, at least in part we borrowed money from the same people who we bought stuff from.  Now, we're in the beginning of a massive wave of automation.  Western currencies are going to fall -- this will in effect lower the value of that debt.  Asia will get a greater concentration of wealth at the top, but will it still have the growing standard of living for the common person?  How will the export market in Asia continue when the West is financially weaker?  I honestly see the debt in the West as a real problem for Asia.