Author Topic: trade war  (Read 2480 times)

BoL

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Re: trade war
« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2018, 06:13:39 PM »
>80's ANYTHING from the US would be the most awesome thing

Definitely for me when growing up in the 80s in Scotland. Michael Jackson, WWF, hollywood... what wasn't to like.

Eye rolls when Western leaders talk about the free world, though. Protectionism seems to rear its head now and again, pretty sure there were similar tariffs in the early 2000s by Bush.

littleman

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Re: trade war
« Reply #16 on: June 02, 2018, 06:52:30 PM »
>80's ANYTHING from the US would be the most awesome thing

I've been told the Polish still think we're cool (for now).

Mackin USA

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Re: trade war
« Reply #17 on: June 04, 2018, 11:31:22 AM »
The US has been in "discssions" on trade for decades.

It was time to move those discussions along.

The stock market doesn't seem too concerned:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia/charts
Mr. Mackin

grnidone

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Re: trade war
« Reply #18 on: June 04, 2018, 05:09:28 PM »
Quote
>Grnidone, I think this is a bit of blaming the victim.  I know plenty of people who would have jumped at the chance of a stable factory job if they still existed.  Many of the people I went to school with had dads that lost their jobs in nearby factories.

Not blaming the victim at all, actually.  I find it shameful that people don't see these jobs as highly skilled trades.  I find it shameful that "trade school" is seen as "less than" college.  It's ridiculous.

My Dad went to college to learn Agriculture and farming (and still bitches about having to take "O-Chem" (Organic Chemistry).  These so called "trade-skills" are highly technical. 

But somewhere along the line, people started saying stuff like "Work smart, not hard" implying that trade jobs were "only for dummies."

Maybe this is where the US's attitude towards STEM started to wane?



grnidone

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Re: trade war
« Reply #19 on: June 04, 2018, 05:11:57 PM »
Regarding Levis:
http://allamericanreviews.com/levis/

Quote
For the large majority of their jeans, Levi’s are not made in the USA. More than 99% of their jeans are made in countries like China, Japan, Italy, and others. Levi’s does have a single collection of “Made in the USA” 501 jeans, sourced from a small denim mill called White Oak in Greensboro, NC.

If you want to get those Made in the USA Levi’s, it will definitely cost you. The price tag on the standard 501 jeans is typically seen at $178. However, their online shop right now shows no products available in this style.

grnidone

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Re: trade war
« Reply #20 on: June 04, 2018, 05:13:08 PM »
Quote
Now my cousin works in a factory full time and the farm is a 'hobby farm' (his words) which produces income to be sure but not enough to support his family.

It is *very* difficult to start in farming.  And, it shows:  the average age of a farmer has been going up for 20 years.  Now, it's 59.5. 

aaron

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Re: trade war
« Reply #21 on: June 04, 2018, 07:07:07 PM »
Noboddy wins a trade war
The middle class certainly could. They've been screwed for at least 3 to 4 decades with the trade policies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3pf1qVrBz8
When visiting family in rural town in a southern state the local economy looked quite bombed out. There's a Wal-mart, but there are likely more choices/variation in payday loan providers in the town than in even fast food restaurants.

Many first world countries charge a VAT which ultimately ends up as a relative tax on imports, while the US does not charge one, which acts as a subsidy to foreign produced goods on a relative basis. And then the inefficient healthcare system chuck full of fraud is yet another tithing on domestic production.

There probably aren't two economies more intertwined than Canada and the USA.  I don't think the stock market is convinced this is going to happen yet.
The markets are absolutely ambivalent toward trade war risks though. If they were not then some of the corporate debt prices would look like a more extreme blow out of what happened in Italy recently.

A couple weeks ago when the media pitched that there will be no trade wars I thought that would have been a great time to buy a put option on some of the dollar store retailers. Stores like WalMart have resilient global supply chains where they can pick from numerous countries, but the smaller & fast-growth competitors would be hit far harder by a trade war.

Mackin USA

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Re: trade war
« Reply #22 on: June 06, 2018, 02:32:15 PM »
One month after the biggest plunge in the US trade deficit since the financial crisis - good news for Trump who has engaged in "trade war" with the rest of the world to boost US trader and exports - the good news continued in April, when according to the Census Bureau, the US deficit shrank again, down 2.1% from a revised $47.2BN to $46.2BN - the lowest since September 2017, and beating not only the $49BN consensus estimate, but also also the lowest Wall Street estimate of $46.2BN.

[zerohedge.com]
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littleman

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Re: trade war
« Reply #23 on: June 06, 2018, 06:24:05 PM »
>April

I am not seeing the relevancy; these decisions will impacting future quarters/years.

aaron

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Re: trade war
« Reply #24 on: June 06, 2018, 06:42:36 PM »
>April

I am not seeing the relevancy; these decisions will impacting future quarters/years.
From an FX standpoint China may be letting their currency appreciate more than it otherwise would in order to show the great work they are doing in helping the global economy rebalance. $1 bought 6.96 RMB 18 months ago. Now it buys 6.41 RMB, which is about an 8% rise in value of the RMB or Yuan vs the Dollar from the December 2016 lows.
https://xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CNY&view=2Y
The Dollar index appears to have moved a similar amount (102.95 to 93.66), so China allowed the Dollar to depreciate relative to the Yuan, rather than having a hard peg which pulled the domestic currency down with the Dollar.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

The relationship between trade balances and international capital accounts are largely mirror images for the US as imbalances in trade lead to capital inflows to bonds, stocks & other financial assets. An economist named Richard Duncan has a bunch of powerpoint video presentations on this sort of stuff on his site https://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/

related news article:
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2149385/yes-beijing-will-stick-us-government-bonds-no-matter-what-happens
Quote
In a sign that China’s international payment fundamentals are worsening, the first quarter gave China its first quarterly current account deficit since joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001, which means it now buys more goods and services than it sells to the rest of the world.

China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US is bigger than the country’s overall surplus. Thus China would have a trade deficit if US President Donald Trump’s demand for balanced US-China trade became a reality.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2018, 07:11:34 PM by aaron »

littleman

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Re: trade war
« Reply #25 on: June 06, 2018, 08:16:05 PM »
Thanks for the link to Richard Duncan's site.  I am going to watch some of his lectures.  China's economy is very interesting to me, I can't imagine it not having a major crisis in the near future with all the ghost towns of empty skyscrapers and other strange happenings over there.  There seems to be a strong push for wealthy Chinese to buy property outside China right now.  Locally most of the home buyers have been rich Chinese nationals looking for a place to drop some money -- the run up in prices is insane but fascinating to watch.

Mackin USA

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Re: trade war
« Reply #26 on: June 07, 2018, 11:43:05 AM »
China’s Economic Numbers Have a Credibility Problem
Suspicions that the country is cooking the books persist despite a government crackdown on cheating cadres.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-19/china-s-economic-stats-have-a-credibility-problem
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aaron

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Re: trade war
« Reply #27 on: June 07, 2018, 06:36:21 PM »
Thanks for the link to Richard Duncan's site.  I am going to watch some of his lectures.  China's economy is very interesting to me, I can't imagine it not having a major crisis in the near future with all the ghost towns of empty skyscrapers and other strange happenings over there.  There seems to be a strong push for wealthy Chinese to buy property outside China right now.  Locally most of the home buyers have been rich Chinese nationals looking for a place to drop some money -- the run up in prices is insane but fascinating to watch.
I should clarify that most of Richard Duncan's videos are about macroeconomics & the US impact in the global economy rather than being strictly about the Chinese economy, though he certainly has a few about China.

There is not a lot of trust in the domestic Chinese economy. Which is part of why there are some odd sounding regulations outside the mainland.
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/economy/article/2115384/lawmakers-district-councillors-rally-against-review-hong
http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201607/26/P2016072600640.htm

the price in Shenzen for real estate was listed at $8,665/square meter
https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/China/Price-History
in desirable areas the price can even double from there
https://www.smh.com.au/world/beijing-shanghai-shenzhen-the-cities-where-house-prices-rose-by-30-to-40-per-cent-20161003-grtwe6.html
Quote
Prices in central Beijing conservatively start at 80,000 yuan [about $16,000] per square metre, making even a nondescript, 100-square-metre, two-bedroom, previously owned apartment $1.6 million.
the high prices even flow into micro-units
Quote
In Shenzhen, a manufacturing and tech hub in southern China, social media users were in uproar over the sale of outrageously expensive "micro-apartments". The six-square-metre "pigeon cage" apartments were snapped up swiftly, despite the price tag of 880,000 yuan being roughly 20 times the city's average annual per capita income.
6 square meters is 64.5835 square feet
880,000 yuan is $137,680.40
that is $2,131.82 per square foot, or nearly double the cost of San Francisco per square foot
https://sf.curbed.com/2017/9/29/16385146/san-francisco-price-per-square-foot

the doors off the hinges bubble craze in China
https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/780225811584389120
makes most of the rest of the world look cheap by comparison

Mackin USA

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Re: trade war
« Reply #28 on: June 14, 2018, 01:04:45 PM »
As part of Draghi's prepared remarks, the ECB head released the central bank's quarterly forecasts. Here one surprise was the big drop in 2018 GDP from 2.4% to 2.1%, while 2019 and 2020 were kept unchanged:

    2018 cut to 2.1% from 2.4%
    2019 unchanged at 1.9%
    2020 unchanged at 1.7%


 AND
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-14/eur-bund-yields-tumble-after-draghi-signals-end-qe
« Last Edit: June 14, 2018, 01:06:30 PM by Mackin USA »
Mr. Mackin

Mackin USA

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Re: trade war
« Reply #29 on: June 24, 2018, 11:15:48 AM »
The simple rules of thumb—sell China, sell Korea, sell emerging markets, prefer smaller to larger U.S. stocks and buy the safe-haven dollar and bonds—have been working better than detailed analysis so far, in part because the prospects for a trade war are still so uncertain. If it becomes clear that new trade barriers are here to stay, understanding both the details of which companies will be hit and the knock-on effects on the economy will matter more.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-trade-a-trade-war-1529595543?mod=e2fb
Mr. Mackin