Author Topic: trade war  (Read 744 times)

littleman

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trade war
« on: May 31, 2018, 06:44:41 PM »
I'm watching the Canadian response now.  Looks like an exact proportional measure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHxzG-VdO_A


Torben

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Re: trade war
« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2018, 07:26:28 PM »
Noboddy wins a trade war

rcjordan

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Re: trade war
« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2018, 09:02:01 PM »
Yeah, but Trump is playing to his protectionist base.

littleman

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Re: trade war
« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2018, 09:26:33 PM »
There probably aren't two economies more intertwined than Canada and the USA.  I don't think the stock market is convinced this is going to happen yet.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2018, 04:35:51 AM by littleman »

Brad

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Re: trade war
« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2018, 11:40:35 PM »
Yeah, but Trump is playing to his protectionist base.

This.  He won't win, but he will say he tried more than anyone. 

The thing is "free trade" and a "level playing field" seems to benefit multinational corporations, investment bankers, politicians, lawyers and all the usual camp followers but somehow developed nations get screwed.

littleman

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Re: trade war
« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2018, 04:46:27 AM »
>developed nations get screwed

Quote
President Trump campaigned on going hard after China for ripping off the United States on trade. Yet a year and a half into his presidency, Trump has put more tariffs on longtime U.S. allies than he has on China, his supposed "bad guy" on trade. The Trump administration announced new tariffs Thursday on the European Union, Canada and Mexico.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/05/31/trump-has-officially-put-more-tariffs-on-u-s-allies-than-on-china/

Brad

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Re: trade war
« Reply #6 on: June 01, 2018, 10:47:16 AM »
Part of the problem here is there would be no populist, protectionist base for Trump to play to, if the American economy was going well.  It is for the big corporations but it is not going well for rank and file people.  I live in the Rust Belt, I've been watching this for 40 years.

The true lesson is this: at some point, for political stability, you have to keep people employed and reasonably content.  IF you don't people start looking for new leaders or even a new system.  Europe understands this because they have been through more hard times than US.  China understands this.

American elites, don't seem to understand this.  But the anger and fear with Trump's base is very real and it's not going away it's spreading, it's not just blue collar workers and farmers, it's now people with law degrees and massive student loans substitute teaching Middle School because they can't find work.  Trade war or not, you have to keep your people employed and with hope for a decent future or you are in deep trouble.

My contention is we have off shored too much, in return for fast profits.  I can buy an electric toothbrush that says "Made in Germany" all over it for $40.  Why doesn't that say Made in USA?  I look at that and think "we are not even trying".

grnidone

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Re: trade war
« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2018, 07:43:21 PM »
>I live in the Rust Belt, I've been watching this for 40 years.

Where do you live, Brad?

>Why doesn't that say Made in USA? 

One word:  shame.  It has become shameful to "work hard." 

"Go to college, get your degree," has been preached ad nauseum to a point where a degree is meaningless because it doesn't actually teach you how to work. 

I think we have shamed so many people that working in a factory is where "stupid" people go to work, instead of respecting them like the skilled tradespeople they are.

buckworks

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Re: trade war
« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2018, 08:20:47 PM »
Quote
"The society which scorns excellence in plumbing as a humble activity and tolerates shoddiness in philosophy because it is an exalted activity will have neither good plumbing nor good philosophy: neither its pipes nor its theories will hold water." -- John W. Gardner

Brad

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Re: trade war
« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2018, 08:37:51 PM »
>Where do you live, Brad?

Near Chicago. NW Indiana to be exact.  There is a steel mill about a mile away which used to employ 40,000 people, now about 5,000.  Years ago the state built a 4 lane highway to handle all the mill workers arriving and leaving at shift change, now that highway is only lightly used.  That's just one mill, they are all like that.  Many have closed down.  And the companies that serviced the mills, or fabricated steel have closed.

Pick a heavy industry and the story is the same - decline.

My cousin farms his family farm in Iowa.  In the 1960's and 70's that farm supported a family of 4.  Now my cousin works in a factory full time and the farm is a 'hobby farm' (his words) which produces income to be sure but not enough to support his family.

My point is that not everybody can go to collage.  Not everybody can sell stuff, shuffle papers, program computers etc.  We as a nation, have to at least provide the hope that there will be a variety of decent paying jobs available. Jobs that aren't one quarter earnings report away from going under.  Hook or by crook you have to provide some hope for a decent future.

Other countries somehow manage to pay their workers a decent wage, have health, safety and environmental standards, have pensions and don't get called out for protectionism.  I go back to that German electric toothbrush example: somehow they make a good product, ship it from Germany to the US, sell it to me on Amazon for $40 and still make a profit.  We need to do that.  Here in the US. Hook or by crook.  Our corporations are not even trying to make those kind of jobs here anymore.

>tradespeople

I think the German's have done well with their apprentice programs.

littleman

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Re: trade war
« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2018, 08:40:15 PM »
Brad I agree with you.  One thing German has that the US doesn't is that all the major companies are partially owned by their employees.  This ensures that the decisions made have a more long term focus and that workers concerns actually get addressed. 

Quote
Codetermination in Germany is a concept that involves the right of workers to participate in management of the companies they work for.[1] Known as Mitbestimmung, the modern law on codetermination is found principally in the Mitbestimmungsgesetz of 1976. The law allows workers to elect representatives (usually trade union representatives) for almost half of the supervisory board of directors. The legislation is separate from the main German company law Act for public companies, the Aktiengesetz. It applies to public and private companies, so long as there are over 2,000 employees. For companies with 5002,000 employees, one third of the supervisory board must be elected.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Codetermination_in_Germany

Grnidone, I think this is a bit of blaming the victim.  I know plenty of people who would have jumped at the chance of a stable factory job if they still existed.  Many of the people I went to school with had dads that lost their jobs in nearby factories.



Most of this is meaningless today.  Total manufacturing is actually up in the US, but total employment in manufacturing has not changed much.  Ten years from now we'll be wondering what China is going to do with their 300 million that no longer work in factories.

Chunkford

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Re: trade war
« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2018, 10:14:06 AM »
I have to laugh at this,
US increases levies on steel & aluminium, the EU hits back by increasing levies on Levi jeans and bourbon..... I mean really, is that going to make a difference?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43285325
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Brad

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Re: trade war
« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2018, 11:21:44 AM »
>bourbon

Heh, bourbon is serious business. :)

Back when this was all first proposed, China made a detailed list of all the things it would ban from the US.  It nowhere near matched the US ban dollarwise.  But each product chosen would have a major impact in a state where Trump support was highest. (ie soybeans = Iowa).  Every single product had been well thought out by the Chinese.  I had to admire the finesse.

I suspect the EU will do the same.

>Levis

Are they still made in the US?

Chunkford

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Re: trade war
« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2018, 01:31:48 PM »
Back when this was all first proposed, China made a detailed list of all the things it would ban from the US.  It nowhere near matched the US ban dollarwise.  But each product chosen would have a major impact in a state where Trump support was highest. (ie soybeans = Iowa).  Every single product had been well thought out by the Chinese.  I had to admire the finesse.

oooh, that's devious. Didn't think about it like that.
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Rumbas

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Re: trade war
« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2018, 03:54:15 PM »
>I mean really, is that going to make a difference

Probably. We do buy A LOT of your sh!t like that. Most popular sports and fashion brands. However, IMO nothing that we can't live without.

When I grew up in the late 70's/80's ANYTHING from the US would be the most awesome thing to get your hands on. Recently, not so much and today, with Trump, nothing at all I'm affraid.