Author Topic: trade war  (Read 745 times)

aaron

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Re: trade war
« Reply #30 on: June 24, 2018, 05:51:28 PM »
The simple rules of thumb—sell China, sell Korea, sell emerging markets, prefer smaller to larger U.S. stocks and buy the safe-haven dollar and bonds—have been working better than detailed analysis so far, in part because the prospects for a trade war are still so uncertain. If it becomes clear that new trade barriers are here to stay, understanding both the details of which companies will be hit and the knock-on effects on the economy will matter more.

Back in January (when the Dollar was widely heated) a guy named Brent Johnson from Santiago CApital put out a video stating he thought the Federal Reserve going from QE to QT would cause capital flight into the US as the rate differentials had the US sucking the QE milkshake of other central banks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6RZIbUvTXU

Tariffs from the US are leading to China preemptively easing their monetary policy
Quote
Under the reserve cut, some 500 billion yuan ($76.86 billion) will be released for 17 large banks, including the Big Five state-owned banks, the central bank said. It said the banks are to use the freed-up funds by converting bad loans into equity in companies that default on their debts. ... Following the reduction in banks’ reserve-requirement ratio, analysts expect more loosening, including increasing lending quotas for banks, relaxing mortgage restrictions for home buyers in some cities and easing limits on local governments to borrow.
China is trying to use Yuan denominated bilateral trade deals and launch exchanges for key commodities like oil to set commodity prices in something other than Dollars.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-oil-futures/shanghai-crude-futures-roar-into-action-as-global-merchants-dominate-trade-idUSKBN1H207T

They've also used debt to weigh down many smaller neighboring countries...debt trap diplomacy
http://www.atimes.com/article/sri-lanka-latest-victim-chinas-debt-trap-diplomacy/
http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-debt-trap-diplomacy-hits-philippines-with-exorbitant-loans-2018-3
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/world/us-secret-report-china-debt-trap-on-australias-doorstep-20180513-h0zzwd
« Last Edit: June 24, 2018, 06:05:36 PM by aaron »