Author Topic: We have reached peak child  (Read 476 times)

ergophobe

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 8436
    • View Profile
We have reached peak child
« on: November 14, 2022, 04:39:21 PM »
It seems highly likely that the world will never have as many children as it has right now, even as population grows toward 10b overall

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-13/earths-population-reaches-eight-billion-people/101643854

rcjordan

  • I'm consulting the authorities on the subject
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14790
  • Debbie says...
    • View Profile
Re: We have reached peak child
« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2022, 04:58:30 PM »
Wow....

"Just eight countries are projected to be responsible for more than half the world's population increase by 2050.

One of them is India, which is set to overtake China as the most populous country in the world next year.

Pakistan and the Philippines are also on the list, and the remaining five are all in Africa: Nigeria, Tanzania, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Egypt. "

rcjordan

  • I'm consulting the authorities on the subject
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14790
  • Debbie says...
    • View Profile
Re: We have reached peak child
« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2022, 04:00:35 PM »
It should not be controversial to say a population of 8 billion will have a grave impact on the climate | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/15/population-8-billion-climate

Rupert

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 3212
  • George in a previous life.
    • View Profile
    • SuitsMen
Re: We have reached peak child
« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2022, 08:56:27 AM »
Other forecasts say India is already on a decline.   I thought I heard it here:

Is demography destiny?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001326k

I caught this headline, that is probably more accurate than my memory:
 
https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/12/02/indias-population-will-start-to-shrink-sooner-than-expected

Quote
WHEN SOMETHING happens earlier than expected, Indians say it has been “preponed”. On November 24th India’s health ministry revealed that a resolution to one of its oldest and greatest preoccupations will indeed be preponed. Some years ahead of UN predictions, and its own government targets, India’s total fertility rate—the average number of children that an Indian woman can expect to bear in her lifetime—has fallen below 2.1, which is to say below the “replacement” level at which births balance deaths. In fact it dropped to just 2.0 overall, and to 1.6 in India’s cities, says the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), a country-wide health check. That is a 10% drop from the previous survey, just five years ago.

Ok thats different to what I said, but the sense is the same.

China is shrinking, so India being bigger than China sounds shocking but perhaps isnt?

The biggest takeaway I took form the Rethink, was that in the next 20 years its Africa that will continue to expand, no where else.

Unfortunately the program starts with a quote from Elon Musk, that kinda spoils its believability.
... Make sure you live before you die.

ergophobe

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 8436
    • View Profile
Re: We have reached peak child
« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2022, 06:11:34 PM »
You turned me onto the Rethink series. Very good and the demographics episodes were among the best. Actually, were the best