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Author Topic: Why Robots Won't Cause Mass Unemployment  (Read 398 times)
Mackin USA
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« on: August 04, 2017, 10:51:02 AM »

    Say’s Law:

        Production precedes consumption.
        Demand is constituted by supply.
        One’s demand for products in the market is limited by one’s supply.
        Production is undertaken to facilitate consumption.
        Your supply to satisfy the wants of others makes up your demand for for others’ production.
        There can be no general over-production (glut) in the market.

    NOT Say’s Law:

        Production creates its own demand.
        Aggregate supply is (always) equal to aggregate demand.
        The economy is always at full employment.
        Production cannot exceed consumption for any good.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-03/why-robots-wont-cause-mass-unemployment
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Mackin USA
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2017, 12:53:51 PM »

ANOTHER VIEW

Former Facebook executive says society will COLLAPSE within 30 years as robots put half of humans out of work.
Antonio Garcia Martinez fears revolution and armed conflict will erupt in America in the coming decades


https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/4170364/former-facebook-executive-says-society-will-collapse-within-30-years-as-robots-put-half-of-humans-out-of-work/
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Torben
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« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2017, 01:14:04 PM »

Compared to the industrial revolution, automation (robots and software) will take place a lot quicker and most people will not adapt just as quick. This is a big problem in my opinion. On the other hand, if you go back 50 years, who could have imagined that yo can make living as a barista serving latte.

New opportunities will come but changes will come quicker than most people would like. I'm not worried about the rise of the machines. The rise of the unemployed is what scares me.

I feel lucky that i live in a communist country (Denmark) because free education and social benefits are already deeply integrated in our society and I believe that makes us better prepared for when automation really kicks in.

You 'Mericans on the other hand...   
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Mackin USA
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« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2017, 01:21:50 PM »

>make living as a barista serving latte

VERY GOOD POINT
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« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2017, 01:36:24 PM »

>> make living as a barista serving latte

They will automate that, quicker too I suspect.

They already have those automated tools in McDonalds. It's coming. Mind you I don't like those things, too many dirty MF's touching that screen.
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littleman
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« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2017, 07:06:04 PM »

>>who could have imagined that yo can make living as a barista serving latte

Well, you could survive (if you do not have any children), but it isn't a very good life.  You would have enough to pay for a small room in someone else's apartment and have a very meager food budget.  The average barista pay is $9.55 per hour.
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« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2017, 07:33:02 PM »

> They will automate that, quicker too I suspect.

Yes but my point is that new jobs an oportunities that you can not imagine now will come in the next 20 years
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Mackin USA
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« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2017, 08:25:39 PM »

>Yes but my point is that new jobs an oportunities that you can not imagine now will come in the next 20 years

That always seems to happen...
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ergophobe
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« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2017, 06:11:56 PM »

Former Facebook executive says society will COLLAPSE within 30 years

The scary thing about this is that he's predicting collapse at roughly 2050 - that date hasn't changed in 45 years. Even before we knew about robots and global warming, models predicted this as a turning point. The scary part being that in 45 years, we haven't managed to push this date back and it is starting to get very close.

Back in 1972, the Club of Rome predicted the beginning of the great unraveling around 2050 in two of their three scenarios. The third scenario, of course, is that we get our sh## together and do something, which we did not do in 1972, or 1992, or 2017.

One of the authors published a 40th anniversary look at where we are and still 2050 looks like a threshhold (Jorgen Randers et al, "2052:  A Global Forecast").

Generally, independent looks by Graham Turner have supported the conclusion that we're on track with the predictions in Limits of Growth.

My brother was going to some systems dynamics conferences for a while and they tend to zero in on the middle of the 21st century as well.

Why is that scary? Because, the Limits of Growth predictions were made without knowing about the Arab Oil Embargo, without knowing about the final US/ARVN defeat in Vietnam, without knowing about the collapse of the USSR, without knowing about the creation of cheap computers, the internet, or pocket supercomputers, without knowing about the rise of AI and robotics, without knowing about the ozone hole, without knowing much if anything about global warming, etc.

And yet, the methods they used, which were meant to be agnostic to as many minor things as possible and focus on resource availability, continue to hold.

So in other words, the predictive models we have, have stood the test of time. Even though they lay out an alternate path that could lead to sustainability, we have avoided that path since the first warnings in 1972.

The longer we wait, the harder it is to change paths. For example, measured from 2000, we have a carbon budget. I believe the number is a trillion tons. In any case, we used 30% of it in the first decade of the 21st century. We are on track to use more than another third in the current decade. That leaves us about 35% of our total budget for the rest of time!

This matters because if we had started making reductions in 2010, the peak pace of reduction would have been fairly modest - 3.7% per year at its fastest (assuming a roughly bell-shaped curve in reductions over time). By waiting until 2020 to turn the ship around, our period of fastest carbon reduction will require 9% per year in reductions, which is going to be extremely painful, though possible, but perhaps in the way that it was possible for the Allies to defeat the Axis in WWII. If we wait until 2030, it's game over. At that point, we are headed to a 4 degree C rise, and that will be almost certainly catasatrophic. http://www.skepticalscience.com/the-critical-decade-part-3-emissions-reductions.html

All that said, most models I see, say that in all cases, the world starts to unravel in 2050. We typically don't see collapse for another while, especially if we're rich and sheltered, but if we don't take action to stabilize things well before 2050, it becomes almost impossible to stabilize them after things begin unraveling in 2050.

Of course the certainty in the models in 1972 was low. So you could say that there was a good argument then to wait and see how they played out. By 1992, however, not only were those models supported, but the climate models were also getting relatively strong.

We've now squandered another 25 years as grasshoppers... it remains to be seen whether the ants will save us.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2017, 06:21:16 PM by ergophobe » Logged
Rupert
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2017, 09:00:06 AM »

God I am depressed now....  is it too early to start drinking?
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Mackin USA
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2017, 11:51:23 AM »

No

ADDED https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curve_fitting
« Last Edit: August 08, 2017, 01:48:29 PM by Mackin USA » Logged

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ergophobe
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2017, 05:46:32 PM »

God I am depressed now....

Sorry. I do not believe it's game over yet and I see so many positive signs. To me, the key is helping people understand the urgency of the various problems, not to push them into the black pit of despair. Every single issue we have before us is solvable if we have the will to do it.

How the world looks for the next generations hinges on that question: do we have the will to fix the mess we and our parents generations have made?

I'm fundamentally an optimist and I'm betting on people to do the right thing once they understand the options.

And yes, it's complicated. I have no idea what the "right thing" is on many of these issues. I do know if someone says "All we have to do is [solar power | universal basic income | cut taxes | enact term limits | other simple solution]" they are wrong.

Unfortunately, the person who is right probably says "We need to enact a lot of small solutions and a few big ones, some of which will be painful" and that does not sell well in elections, especially not US primaries. So one of the things I focus on is trying to reward those people with small donations as early as possible in the election cycle.
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Rupert
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2017, 09:31:45 PM »

Ah, and we need someone who believes there is a problem in  the decision making job. Generally I am an optimist... but this is an issue I see some of us will survive, but many will not. And that is sad.

Mr Mackin...  5 is way too early... 6 is the sundowner hour on this ise of the pond.   Smiley Funny, thx.
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rcjordan
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« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2017, 12:44:58 AM »

https://i.imgur.com/ZGJ93mf.gifv
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