Also, GDP is a terrible number.
Let's say I'm a single dad and I hire a woman to take care of the kids for $50,000. We turn out to like each other and we get married. She's now working harder, because she doesn't even get evenings and weekends off from childcare, but GDP just took a $50,000 hit.
Meanwhile, if instead of an actual car, I have created an amazing car for the Second Life or the Metaverse or Roblox or whatever. I sell $10,000,000 in virtual cars usable only inside a game environment. The GDP goes up not just by $10,000,000, but depending on the velocity of that money, 2x to 7x that much.
I'm not saying GDP is an entirely useless measure. I'm saying that a fundamental, underlying shift in the economy that changes the way the same money is spent can also change GDP. It might be automation. It might have to do with... making something up here... that the velocity of money spent on gasoline for commuting is really low. Most of it flows straight to shareholders in oil companies. The money spent on HSTDI* home improvement is highly local and might have a high velocity.
Maybe that's just farcical. I don't know. Just throwing out ideas. I just find it curious that if there are shortages of everything and supply chains are disrupted, how is there a massive jump in retail spending? Is it just buying down stocks? Is it bidding up the price of the same goods (so there's more inflation than the numbers show?).
Again, I have no clue. The short version of the above would be, "I don't understand."
*HSTDI = Hire Someone To Do It (as opposed to DIY).
