Author Topic: The changed future after CV-19  (Read 34135 times)

DrCool

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Re: The changed future after CV-19
« Reply #165 on: December 18, 2020, 05:10:21 PM »
>Ghost Kitchens

I had seen a few articles about ghost kitchens even before COVID. Makes total sense. Why pay for all the overhead of a dining room, large menu, diverse options, etc. when you can just get a small kitchen and crank out a handful of dishes and do them reasonably well? They can also focus on food that travels well and has little degradation if delivery takes 15-20 minutes. They can also make sure things make sense economically and focus on higher margin foods when the delivery services take their 20-30%

There have been a number of restaurants around here that have done some pretty amazing pivots as well. One used to do kind of upscale burgers and modern takes on classic dishes. Over the last couple weeks they have shifted to making burritos you can just grab and go. They only need a 6-10 ingredients on hand and one or two people can crank them out at a good pace. There are a lot of restaurants here that do a lot of whining and complaining but the ones who have been able to adapt, change their menus, swallow their pride a bit and focus on what kind of food needs to be cooked vs. what they want to cook, etc. seem to be doing reasonably well.

ergophobe

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Re: The changed future after CV-19
« Reply #166 on: December 21, 2020, 08:07:43 PM »
One of the Pandemicís Big Winners: Hunting
License sales, in long decline, jumped this year as newcomers ventured into the wild.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/one-of-the-pandemics-big-winners-hunting-11607871411

I expect this uptick will be persistent (lots of the new hunters will stick with it), but will not change the overall trend (the same underlying demographic reasons for decline continue to exist).

rcjordan

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Re: The changed future after CV-19
« Reply #167 on: December 22, 2020, 03:48:44 AM »
I see a little more fishing & boating, but not more hunting. Though I have heard a few shotguns in the surrounding fields and shores this year, it is infrequent.  A decade ago, I'd hear an opening salvo every Saturday morning, for sure.   And I don't see dog boxes in pickup trucks much.  They used to be in every third one.

So, Debbie says that while rural areas surrounding large urban areas are probably seeing an uptick in hunters & fishermen, they are doing so because the cityfolk are using it for an escape.

I don't think all this outdoorsy-ness is going to stick. Maybe some, but not much.  Right now, it is just something to do.  Once the bars and restaurants open up, they'll drop the guns & rods.

Brad

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Re: The changed future after CV-19
« Reply #168 on: December 22, 2020, 12:02:38 PM »
> hunting

The fields I used to hunt when I was a teen are all housing subdivisions now and city limits have expanded enormously.  Around here there is also less traditional game with the exception of deer and turkeys.  Upland birds are scarce due to changes in farming, rabbits are all hiding out in the subdivisions because the coyotes have returned to the woods and fields.  I have no idea what's on with the duck hunters, that never interested me.

I don't see other non-hunting gun sports (trap, skeet, rifle and handgun ranges) picking up much either.  Suburban sprawl is killing off most gun ranges which were established out in the middle of nowhere after World War II.  Sprawl has caught up with them and now "burbclaves" are within hearing distance of the gun reports.  Fancy sporting clay clubs established more recently are more like country clubs and can be quite expensive.

That and ammunition of all kinds has become scarce because of all the political panic buying.

ergophobe

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Re: The changed future after CV-19
« Reply #169 on: December 22, 2020, 03:55:09 PM »
>>I don't think all this outdoorsy-ness is going to stick.

That is my fervent hope ;-) The hunting thing doesn't affect me much, but other things do. It's a scramble to buy backcountry gear. I just build a website for a gear shop and he said his number one challenge this year is keeping stuff in stock. He told me that if needed new ski boots this year, I should purchase by Nov 15, because after that selection would start to get limited.

Meanwhile, in the park, wilderness permits were hard to come by all summer. Places I once thought of as obscure were hitting quota.

But I am banking on the idea that once people get comfortable riding lifts with strangers again, most people won't want to hump uphill. Once hotels and campgrounds with bathrooms are back to full capacity, most people will find that packing out their used toilet paper doesn't appeal to them that much.

I'm not entirely sure, though. For the last several years, backcountry skiing/boarding is the only sector that has been growing and it has been growing fast. And backpacking was already enjoying a bit of a resurgence after a vogue in the 1970s that bottomed out in the 1990s or so.

rcjordan

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Re: The changed future after CV-19
« Reply #170 on: December 22, 2020, 08:48:54 PM »
I think some outdoor activities will continue, but cost & effort required will be the deciding factor.  Relatively easy and cheap -like park trail hiking, or bird watching, maybe skateboarding- will be slow to taper off.

As Brad mentioned, hunting is getting costly now.  Ammo and places to hunt are something of a PITA, even at entry level. (The feds would be camped on my doorstep if I were still buying shells by the wholesaler's master case like I did when I was a 'paid' dove hunter.)  And most of the popular small game is scarce.

Fishing is not too costly at entry level, but fish populations are pretty pitiful in many places.

Everything about boating costs money.


Brad

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Re: The changed future after CV-19
« Reply #171 on: December 22, 2020, 09:49:37 PM »
> Trail hiking. 

Yeah I can see this being big.  There are so many good hiking trails around and now new hikers have gotten a taste of them.

> bird watching

I'm surprised at how many bird watchers there are.  This niche is popular and growing.

Camping may see a resurgence especially if covid lingers.

I think cycling is going to grow both for recreation and commuting.  Cities are adding bike lanes like crazy and we've been building long distance, paved bike trails for the last 20 years, little sections at a time, and these are now coming together to actually go somewhere.  Bike shops and Walmart could not keep bikes in stock last summer.  This sport might have legs to expand.


ergophobe

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Re: The changed future after CV-19
« Reply #172 on: December 22, 2020, 10:23:39 PM »
Bike shops and Walmart could not keep bikes in stock last summer.

My friends who started a bike shop a few months ago said they would be crushing it if they could only get bikes in, especially kids bikes. The only bikes they've managed to source are all over $3000,  which is tough to sell. But they are cash-flow positive just doing repairs and selling what accessories they can source. But bikes... still a challenge. The big retailers have big contracts that have scooped up most of the supply.

rcjordan

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Re: The changed future after CV-19
« Reply #173 on: December 23, 2020, 12:42:36 AM »
>One of the Pandemicís Big Winners: Hunting
>License sales, in long decline, jumped this year as newcomers ventured into the wild.

Ironically, bird-watching is the scourge of wildlife conservation because it is soooooo cheap.  Bird-watchers use resources but have no licenses or significant ways for conservationists to monetize them.  Back when I was going to state and regional tourism conferences, one of the top state Wildlife honchos told me "Bird-watchers don't pay for s@&$!!"

So, back on topic, given the coming economy I'm expecting cheap-o bird-watching to stick around.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2020, 12:45:15 AM by rcjordan »

grnidone

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Re: The changed future after CV-19
« Reply #174 on: December 25, 2020, 08:55:15 PM »
>hunting, bird watching

That's good to know.  We are fixing up the HomePlace to AirBnB during hunting season when my sister isn't living there in the summers with her kids.  I am also fixing up my little Bungalow in town to AirBnB for when I'm living in KC. 

I was talking to my real estate person in town, and she said there has been several families moving from Colorado to here just because they are sick of the commute and, since they can work from anywhere, can buy a house outright and bank the rest.  I can't say I blame them.

I do think business real estate is going tank.  Why would large companies pay rent on anything more than a meeting space when they can pay for people to work from home?

Brad

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Re: The changed future after CV-19
« Reply #175 on: December 26, 2020, 12:19:38 PM »
> business real estate

There is a lot of discussion going on about this in urban planning circles.  Many seem to think that a lot of the unused urban high rise office space will get converted to living space.  People starting to have kids may want to move to the suburbs but many singles and childless couples still want the urban living experience.

rcjordan

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Re: The changed future after CV-19
« Reply #176 on: December 29, 2020, 04:43:33 PM »