I've been looking into a whole house battery. The thing is, "lithium ion" is a catchall term.
Energy storage systems – not just electric cars – are going to benefit from quadrupling of the cycling power. This will make storage cheaper and more efficient, further speeding up transition to electric power and renewables.
Tesla uses the typical NMC (aka "cobalt" ion) battery. That is because it has the highest energy density, which is important in applications where you are actually moving that mass. In other applications it is not.
So, for example, Lithium Ferro Phosphate batteries already have way better cycle life than the NMC batteries. The LFPs are warranted for 10,000 cycles (min capacity after 10K cycles = 80% of original). The downside is the energy density is lower (I think about 15%) so you lose range by hauling that extra weight around.
Great for homes, but not good for vehicles. They have other advantages over NMC: no thermal runaway problem, no need to preheat the battery the charge efficiently, no cobalt (environmental and social issues there).
So there are already battery technologies that achieve the lifecycle benefits of this, but their added weight causes more range problems in vehicles.
Anyway, the point being that we are still in the early phases of battery tech and I would not be surprised if the battery of 2030 will have huge performance enhancements, but I don't think a single battery tech will win for both vehicles and fixed storage.
I don't know of any domain - skis, motorcycles, bikes, computers - where you can optimize across many parameters at once and beat a product that is optimized for just one task.
My guess is that Tesla will win the vehicle storage race, but perhaps not the fixed storage race.
