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Messages - ergophobe

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2
Economics & Investing / Re: Schwab starts talking about recession
« on: October 21, 2018, 03:30:45 PM »
Housing prices are not set by sticker prices, but monthly payments (obviously). So as insurance goes sky high in California (I'm at $7000 for a fairly modest home) and interest rates go up, sticker price has got to come down. Unfortunately, that drop in sticker price does nothing to make those houses more affordable.

A $500K loan (not uncommon in California) has a $2387 payment at 4%
A $2387/mo payment gets you $398,200 at 6%

If, as happened to us, your insurance goes from 2000 to 7100, that's another 425/mo, that takes you down to roughly $325,000 for your $2387/mo.

So, assume 
 - you are in a fire area and you are grandfathered in with a main line insurer
 - got your loan at 4% down at the bottom
 - new buyer will have to insure with a supplemental line (as we do now)
 - interest rate is 6%

The same payment that bought you a $625K house with 20% down and a $500K loan, that person now gets a $406,250 house with 20% down and a $325,000 loan.

They will be able to afford a bit more, because their tax bill will drop by roughly $2000. So roughly speaking, the can now afford more like $450. Still, for someone in the early stage of the loan where they haven't paid much principle, they'll either need to find a buyer who can afford an extra $1000 per month (600 in interest and 400 in insurance) or they will be underwater.

It's a lot less dire for people in large cities in CA without the insurance issues.

3
Web Development / Re: Increase Your Share Rate
« on: October 21, 2018, 03:15:09 PM »
You don't have to forgo complex sentences and specialized vocabulary

You do if you try writing with Hemingway!

But when I refer to my convoluted sentences, I don't mean well-written complex sentences. I mean sentences where I'm thinking as a write and pack multiple ideas into a single sentence, when the reader would be better served with a mental resting point between ideas.

4
Web Development / Re: Increase Your Share Rate
« on: October 21, 2018, 03:44:17 AM »
Yes, I use the Hemingway App. Not as a standard editor, but from time to time.

It's a great exercise to write "Hemingway Compliant" text (which, by the way, Ernest Hemingway does not do).

It can be constraining, but I also notice that my writing can have a lot more energy.

5
Hardware & Technology / Re: I need a W10 crapbook
« on: October 21, 2018, 02:29:30 AM »
Not sure if this will meet your needs

Sublime Text has a column selection mode (not all the features of Ultraedit column mode, so it depends on what you're doing with it) and Caret is an editor for Chromebook modeled on Sublime Text. Whether it has col selection, I don't know
http://www.sublimetext.com/docs/3/column_selection.html
https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/caret/fljalecfjciodhpcledpamjachpmelml?hl=en

Warning: search on "column" came up empty

6
Web Development / Re: Increase Your Share Rate
« on: October 21, 2018, 02:09:32 AM »
PS... it's harder than it might sound though. I find my tendency is long, convoluted sentences. Simplifying it takes serious effort.

If I recall, it was direct response copywriter Ted Nicholas who said to never go beyond the 8th grade level. He found that sales letters written to a max of 8th grade had better sales even when the mailing was going out exclusively to lawyers or groups with PhDs.

This surprises me though:

Quote
On Medium those articles using sentence case performed better than title case, averaging 20% more recommends.

7
Web Development / Re: Increase Your Share Rate
« on: October 21, 2018, 02:08:25 AM »
Some people take umbrage at the suggestion to write for a middle-school reading level
...
Winston Churchill's war-time speeches and among other things I found that they usually scored around the fifth to seventh grade level

Grapes of Wrath is reputedly written at a fifth-grade level. I just grabbed a multi-page extract and it got a Flesch-Kindcaid score of 4.9, AKA, fifth-grade.

8
>>As much as it pains me to say this

It should gladden you. The ability to agree on a specific issue with someone that you dislike and normally disagree with is a sign of intelligence and maturity and offers a point of contact/concession in conversations that are getting overheated.

9
Economics & Investing / Re: Schwab starts talking about recession
« on: October 18, 2018, 07:54:15 PM »
Where I read, they've been hollering for 6 weeks now. (As opposed to where Mackin reads, where they're *always* hollerin'. hhh)

Yeah, that was sort of my point. Schwab always responds to those hollers with "No, it's all okay. People aren't understanding X," to the point that I recently said to Theresa that I wasn't sure there was any market signal short of actual recession that would get them to say they are starting to worry.

Suddenly, they're not saying that. Suddenly, even Schwab, whose newsletter's purpose seems to be to calm investors and prevent them from withdrawing money from their accounts, seems kind of nervous.

10
Economics & Investing / Re: Schwab starts talking about recession
« on: October 18, 2018, 07:51:44 PM »
I'm working my way through Howard Marks "Mastering the Cycle" book.

I had never heard of him before, until last week when I listened to this
https://tim.blog/2018/09/25/howard-marks/

11
Hardware & Technology / Re: Max Htaccess redirects number
« on: October 18, 2018, 07:38:54 PM »
Thanks! Actually, I was wrong on multiple counts. Reading too fast. He actually agrees with me. He gives the quote I gave above and that's what I keyed in on, but at the end he says

Quote
Itís just not reasonable to say ďDonít use 1:1 redirects in an htaccess file because itíll slow down the site.Ē

So actually, my only disagreement was that he could have taken it a step further and added how the received wisdom he quotes at the beginning is actually bad advice.

As his results show, parsing those single-match redirects doesn't take much time. It takes 100,000 of them to have a 300ms impact.

But if you do your redirects according to the advice he quotes (regex then 1:1), you will almost always incur at least three hops for a www to non-www redirect and old page to new page. So that means that means that you burn and extra 600ms (good, non-overloaded 3G or Yosemite Faux Gee) to 1200ms+ (satellite) in order to save 300ms.

So to hit breakeven for a 3G user, you need something on the order of 200,000 lines of redirects to make up for the extra hops.

Ideally, you would do the custom single-line redirects first, then catch what you can with increasingly general regex, otherwise you end up with chained redirects and those cost you way, way more over slow connections than parsing through your single-match redirects to get to your regex.

So double wrong:
1. Yes, he's really measuring parse time, even though he talks about TTFB and page load (that's what drew my astray)
2. The advice he quotes at the top is bad, but his conclusion is good, but a little incomplete

12
Economics & Investing / Schwab starts talking about recession
« on: October 18, 2018, 05:36:19 PM »
I get the Schwab newsletter, which I almost always ignore for the simple reason that it seems like no matter how dire things, get, they always say "Despite the chatter, everything is rosy, stay the course, keep pouring money into your brokerage account, buy buy buy."

But something caught my eye in the current on and suddenly, there's a lot of talk of recession that isn't flat out dismissive. It's cautious.

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/end-has-start-keeping-eye-on-recession-indicators
https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/on-watch-is-there-more-trouble-ahead-stocks
https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/will-fed-go-too-far-this-cycle-3-indicators-to-watch

It's not so much that their analysis is amazing. It's that there has been a sudden shift in tone in the newsletter, which is what I see as the real indicator that worry is growing.

The odd one is the idea that recessions are typically timed to when unemployment rate is equal to the inflation rate. I'd never heard that before. My first reaction was that there were so few data points, that could be a spurious correlation (and it might be), but it seems to hold pretty well since 1990 across a half-dozen countries.

I don't think my economics brain is sophisticated enough to see why that in particular would provoke/indicate recession

13
Hardware & Technology / Re: Max Htaccess redirects number
« on: October 18, 2018, 05:30:16 PM »
Well Bucky, if you're doing that, let me add a little detail to this

Quote
And every regex-based rule should be a complete rewrite.

In the example I gave above, they are all similarly specific, so there's no logical order. The key is that any given redirect is sufficient to eliminated the need for the next one.

So when you redirect from http to https, make sure you also make the transformation from non-www to www (or the reverse), to set case (if applicable - Windows servers only), remove the extension, etc.

When you redirect from www to non-www, you want to fix the protocol, case, extension, etc at the same time, and so on.

You can do this with a series of RewriteRule that either will or won't match and rewrite, or a series of RewriteCond linked with OR and a single RewriteRule. At that point, if there is any difference at all, you are truly optimizing for a couple of ms and your big performance gain would come from moving these out of .htaccess and putting them into httpd.conf... or moving off Apache onto something else entirely.

The key is avoiding multiple hops for users on high-latency connections.

14
Hardware & Technology / Re: Max Htaccess redirects number
« on: October 18, 2018, 04:53:58 PM »
That's kind of funny... but he's missing a couple of pieces.

Based on his numbers, he is testing this over a fast, low-latency connection. Another thousand redirects aren't a problem there. The problem is over 3G, satellite, etc. where you can easily add 300ms per hop on 3G and double that for satellite.

If you live where I live and 4G is commonly referred to as Faux G, lots of latency there too.

If the redirect involves a DNS lookup, you can double that. So if you redirect the page and you have a lot of redirects for resources too, then it starts to add up over a high-latency connection.

Quote
Top tip for using 1:1 redirects: place them last in the file because if the redirect is handled by a regex statement with a last tag, the 1:1 rules wonít be parsed. Problems are easier to diagnose that way.

Actually, I think this is exactly wrong. The problem with this is that the regex matches are going to handle general redirects (http to https, non-www to www, fixing case in Windows, directory moves and so forth).

I went round and round and round with a developer on this a couple years ago trying to explain that you want your redirects in order of decreasing specificity. His redirects were like this

1. http to https
2. non-www to www
3. mixed case to lower case
4. strip extension
5. old page to new page

That meant that if you had a request for http://example.com/OldPage.aspx it would take 5 hops to get to the right address, at least one of which (non-www to www) requires a DNS lookup.

I finally just had to learn how to speak IIS and write the redirects for him. My principle is that it should take only one redirect to get to the destination. His code was just plain stupid, but if you follow the advice in the SEO Mike article, it is inevitable that you will make two hops.

So to me the rules should be

1. http://example.com/OldPage.aspx to https://www.example.com/newpage

Now I'm done. I never match the following regex-based rules. And every regex-based rule should be a complete rewrite. The only way I can ensure I always get only one hop is if I put my single-line redirects at the top, then get increasingly general as I go down.

With SEO Mike's practice, there is no practical way to get from  http://example.com/OldPage.aspx to https://www.example.com/newpage in a single hop.

15
Web Development / Re: Strange Apache crashes
« on: October 18, 2018, 05:34:27 AM »
And sure enough - if I pull down a new copy of WP and do a byte-by-byte file compare, the files are all identical... but when I overwrite the existing files with the ones I just downloaded, everything springs to life.

So strange.

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