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Messages - ergophobe

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Web Development / Re: Fast Wordpress theme
« on: August 04, 2020, 08:16:55 PM »
Yes, that assumes that you are using a large monitor. So basically, it comes out like this

On a MacBook Air with a 10W power draw, you can roughly speaking read for 40 minutes before hitting the carbon footprint of printing a sheet of paper (obviously, this will be different in Poland than in Germany, in Michigan than in California).

On a dual 24" monitor setup, it's about 1 page per minute of monitor time.

The original source for that has gone 503, but this gives some idea

Water Cooler / Re: A Corbett report on Bill Gates.
« on: August 04, 2020, 08:04:53 PM »
I was somehwat up on this at one point when I was a Rotary member, as Rotary's main initiative is polio eradication.

The problem with the live-virus oral polio vaccine (OPV) and vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) has been discussed for quite some time in public health circles. Contrary to what you seem to be implying, though, the number of polio victims, even accounting for the elevated risk, has been massively lower than the alternative.

However, there is an inflection point where risk of wild polio virus (WPV) cases does not justify the risk of the live-virus OPV and the super aggressive repeated vaccinations that are called for when facing a massive epidemic, and that is the problem that the paper you cite is addressing (and it is a real problem).

It's a risk/benefit calculation, not a verdict on whether live-virus OPV is harmful or helpful to humanity (immeasurably helpful on net) and does not apply to the IPV vaccine, which is not associated with these problems (to my knowledge).

Also, keep in mind, these are not 491,000 additional cases. The net is still massively lower with OPV vaccination than with no vaccination. The question is when you reach crossover for whether OPV is doing more good than IPV (not than no vaccine, which is not even up for debate, I'm sorry). For some years, people have been saying India has/had finally reached that point. But it asbolutely, definitely, was NOT there when Rotary and Gates began pouring money in to help bring the hyperepidemic under control.

This is much different from saying that the polio vaccine is bad or even that the OPV is bad.

 - the polio vaccine used in India during the period is the OPV, a live-virus, but attenuated, form of polio. It most certainly carries more risks, but is more effective, than the inactivated polio virus (IPV) that is used to maintain herd immunity in other places, like the US (and presumably the UK) since 2000. It's a question of risk/benefit. The mechanism is not certain, but it appears that the doses may be so high in India that even the attenuated form can colonise the gut and possibly then mutate and pass to others. It's a real public health issue, no question.

 - At least as early as 2013, the WHO called for beginning a transition away from the OPV to the IPV vaccine as worldwide incidence of polio decreases (as I mentioned, in the US and countries where polio was considered eradicated, this took place around 2000).

 - this study studies pulse vaccination where kids are getting 8-10 doses of live virus, compared to the 3 doses plus booster of inactivated virus that kids get in countries where polio is considered controlled or eradicated. After 2004, it was common in India to conduct 10 nationwide rounds of vaccination in a single year.

 - India was, at the time this started, "hyperepidemic" and accounted for 60% of all polio cases in the world.

 - Before this started, India saw 500-1000 cases of paralysis and death EVERY DAY due to polio.

For the 491,000 people who appear to have been afflicted in India due to the vaccine between 2000 and 2017, you have to stack that up against the 500-1000 cases daily in 1999. If you look at what the toll of that would have been, you get 3.3 million to 6.6 million cases. Also, you have to remember that those millions of cases are lower than might be since already before the all-out effort, a lot of Indians were being vaccinated, not just in the incredible numbers at the aggressive doses you see after 1999 (147,000,000 doses given out in a single day once).

The point of that paper is not that polio vaccination is bad, and definitely not a net ill, but that the hyper-aggressive pulse vaccination program with live virus is no longer warranted in India as the disease is no longer hyper-epidemic in India and that vaccine practices should transition to practices similar to in nations where polio is under control because, at a certain point, you hit crossover where the additional protection provided by live-virus is offset by the additional risks and the net number of polio cases is higher with OPV than with IPV vaccines.

Eradicating poliomyelitis: India's journey from hyperendemic to polio-free status (2013)

The conclusion in the abstract of the above paper gives a nice summary (WPV = wild polio virus)

Elimination of WPVs with OPV is only phase 1 of polio eradication. India is poised to progress to phase 2, with introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), switch from tOPV to bOPV and final elimination of all vaccine-related and vaccine-derived polioviruses. True polio eradication demands zero incidence of poliovirus infection, wild and vaccine.

Oral polio drops linked to paralysis in India

Objective 2: Immunization systems strengthening and OPV withdrawal

Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis in India during 1999: decreased risk despite massive use of oral polio vaccine

Objective Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) is a rare but serious consequence of the administration of oral polio vaccine (OPV). Intensified OPV administration has reduced wild poliovirus transmission in India but VAPP is becoming a matter of concern....

Data from the acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance system in Latin America showed an estimated VAPP risk of 1 case per 1.5–2.2 million doses administered in 1989–91 (6). These studies demonstrated that the risk was substantially increased following receipt of the first dose of OPV and that children with B-cell immunodeficiency disorders were at highest risk for VAPP

And for another reference:

The Economist article you link to:
The tally for 2018 shows a dramatic swing: 98 cases of vaccine-derived polio; 29 cases of the wild version. What is vaccine-derived polio?

At its peak in the 1940s and 1950s, polio would paralyze or kill over half a million people worldwide every year

Web Development / Re: Fast Wordpress theme
« on: August 04, 2020, 03:29:36 PM »
I would take that with a grain of salt, because those energy needs do not scale very linearly with the payload of a web page.

There are still some bills I prefer to receive on paper and I've looked into how "green" paperless billing is. The short version is that the vast majority of the energy is consumed by the end user's computer and especially the monitor. With a standard computer and a large monitor, the carbon footprint of reading your bill online can be greater than getting it on paper, especially if you archive the paper (and thus keep it for 20 years as a carbon sink) rather than shredding it and sending it to the landfill.

So if you could get everyone to use smaller, more efficient monitors, that would be a big savings, whereas saving some KB off your web page will be almost nothing. I don't know exactly how data centers scale in that respect. I know for a while, Bitcoin mining had a massive carbon footprint.

Web Development / Re: Fast Wordpress theme
« on: August 04, 2020, 05:33:22 AM »
As spare as spare can be... but it's 5 requests and under 7KB total

Water Cooler / Re: Quotes that hit home
« on: August 03, 2020, 03:03:06 PM »
I was rereading Montaigne some this spring and early summer, so I recently read that, but didn't specially note it. In French, Montaigne is perhaps the most misquoted author, like Twain and Churchill in English. But this is a bona fide Montaigne quote. Essais, I, 9, "Des Menteurs,"

"Si, comme la vérité, le mensonge n'avoit qu'un visage, nous serions en meilleurs termes. Car nous prenderions pour certain l'opposé de ce que diroit le menteur. Mais le revers de la verité a cent mille figures et un champ indefiny."

You can even see where Montaigne added it in his own handwriting for the second edition here:

See my attached image to help you find the spot.

What about the finding regarding local television? I would guess that audience to skew older and whiter, but not necessarily more educated. I couldn't guess about that.

That could have implications for California. The vast majority of the human-caused fires with highest costs in terms of destroyed property had powerline disruption as the proximate cause (that was a very carefully worded sentence)

Water Cooler / Re: CV19: Sports and Tourism
« on: August 03, 2020, 02:42:15 PM »
Cruise ships restarted? Some people really aren't scared. I can see hopping on a plane for a few hours with full PPE and taking your chances, but days on end on a cruise ship????

Only 17% of those who get their news from social media were able to correctly answer questions related to politics, compared with 45% of those who obtained their news from news websites. Only those who get their political news from local television (10%) scored lower.

Water Cooler / Re: CV: The rugrat scenario
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:12:59 PM »
Friend's son got sick at summer camp. Came home and infected the mom. He's 9 though. I had read that anyone over 5 was a risk. The new info is that the under-5 set is also at risk

And now it's in the NYT

Marketing / Re: TikTok
« on: August 01, 2020, 06:52:07 PM »
>>And how does that even work? Executive orders to hosting companies and ISPs to block traffic to Tik Tok IPs?

Answered further down in the CNET article

In general, the federal government can demand the sale of a company through the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. This panel, part of the US Department of Commerce, is already investigating TikTok in regard to national security concerns. The investigation, first reported in November 2019, could end up requiring changes to TikTok's substantial operations inside the United States, including a sale of its US operations.

The committee has jurisdiction because it reviews foreign ownership and control of companies in the US. ByteDance got its foothold in the United States when it purchased, a US company that ByteDance acquired in 2017 for $800 million and subsequently rebranded as TikTok. The acquisition helped TikTok gain traction with US teens.

There's recent precedent for Chinese companies selling off sections of their businesses. In March, Chinese company Kunlun agreed to sell its controlling stake in gay dating app Grindr after the committee raised national security concerns.

Are there other ways the US government can take away TikTok?
The government could also try to find a legally sound reason to request that Apple and Google pull TikTok from their app stores, according to analysts. And the companies could put up a fight.

"The tech community will be very hesitant to go along with this app ban," said Wayne Lam, an independent technology analyst. "It sets a precedent for the government to ban other apps or even for other global apps to be inaccessible to the US market."

Even if the app were banned, users can install apps on Android devices without downloading them from the Google Play Store, said Carolina Milanesi, a tech analyst at Creative Strategies.

"I don't know at that point how you police that," Milanesi said.

Marketing / Re: TikTok
« on: August 01, 2020, 06:49:06 PM »
>>Microsoft buying anything was the kiss of death

Remember when people used to actually use Skype? By all rights, Skype could have been Zoom.

>>executive action

“Well, I have that authority. I can do it with an executive order or that,” Trump said." Not the first time he has said that, most famously in total violation of the 10th Amendment

And how does that even work? Executive orders to hosting companies and ISPs to block traffic to Tik Tok IPs?

The rationale is incoherent, with Pompeo saying one thing, Naovarro another, and Trump another.

In an interview with Fox News that aired July 6, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said users who download the app are putting "private information in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party." Trump cited a different reason: punishing China for its response to the coronavirus. Asked about Pompeo's remarks, Trump confirmed the US is considering a TikTok ban. "It's a big business," Trump said during an interview with Gray Television. "Look, what happened with China with this virus, what they've done to this country and to the entire world, is disgraceful." ... On July 12, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told Fox Business that TikTok and messaging app WeChat "are the biggest forms of censorship on the Chinese mainland" and to expect "strong action on that."

But of course...

Trump's and Pompeo's remarks came after TikTok users and K-pop fans said they helped spoil attendance at a June presidential rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Water Cooler / Re: fr## sp##ch ?
« on: August 01, 2020, 06:19:42 PM »
1 in 292,201,338 = odds of winning the Powerball jackpot
1 in 302,575,350 = odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot

330,050,745 = current population according to the US Census Bureau population clock

As every American is lucky enough to have a free Covid "ticket," and as Powerball is drawn twice per week and as there have been 22 weeks since March 1, we would expect that if the odds of getting the germ were about the same as getting Covid, we should have a whopping 24.86 cases so far.

My research tells me the number of Covid cases is somewhat higher.

Water Cooler / Re: CV: The rugrat scenario
« on: August 01, 2020, 12:04:28 AM »
From today's email from the county

Mariposa County COVID-19 Case Updates 7/31/2020

One (1) COVID-19 Positive cases reported today

#54- 1 year old Male. Recovered, late test results. Home Isolation. Person to person transmission. Contact Tracing complete.

Water Cooler / The Court Martial of Jackie Robinson
« on: July 31, 2020, 10:58:13 PM »
Old article from American Heritage magazine, 1984.  I knew (and still know) very, very little about Jackie Robinson, but came across this recently and found it fascinating and inspiring and just a great read (it's quite long).

ON JULY 6, 1944, Jackie Robinson, a twenty-five-year-old lieutenant, boarded an Army bus at Fort Hood, Texas. Sixteen months later he would be tapped as the man to break baseball’s color barrier, but in 1944 he was one of thousands of blacks thrust into the Jim Crow South during World War II. He was with the light-skinned wife of a fellow black officer, and the two walked half the length of the bus, then sat down, talking amiably. The driver, gazing into his rear-view mirror, saw a black officer seated in the middle of the bus next to a woman who appeared to be white. Hey, you, sittin’ beside that woman,” he yelled. “Get to the back of the bus.”

It makes me want to read a full biography of Robinson

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