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Water Cooler / Re: Covid 19 interesting data from the UK
« on: May 24, 2020, 08:52:17 PM »My takeaway is that the risk to my Mum is higher from Mental Illness than it is from coming to Supper with us.
How are you getting from that tool to that conclusion? I really don't understand the tool.
- How do I decide which RR to choose?
- What is the meaning of full suppression vs mitigation? The only one of the four scenarios they define is full suppression (only essential workers allowed to leave the house). All the others are not even minimally defined.
And then for comparing vs mental illness, I assume you are finding those numbers elsewhere and comparing them?
I'm very curious about this because
1. I have some friends who are actually having mental health issues due to Covid stress
2. I find myself asking a lot of questions about what level of risk is acceptable.
Regarding #2, the question I keep asking people is "What criteria do you need to meet before you will invite friends into your home or hop on a plane?"
Most people have no answer to that and they basically seem to be pinning their hopes on a vaccine. And that leads me to a basic followup question:
"We could have a vaccine in 18 months, but we've been looking for an AIDS vaccine for 35 years with no success. We've been looking for a malaria vaccine for decades with no real success. Let's say a vaccine is five years away and I'm not going to get on a plane until there's a vaccine. Our parents are aged 91, 87 and 84. If I don't get on a plane at all in the next five years, we are most likely deciding that we will never see one or more of our parents ever again. Are you so afraid of Covid you would never see your parent again?"
So to me, the gating condition is whether or not the healthcare system will be overwhelmed, not whether or not people will die. If it were the latter, we would have a 45mph speed limit on our highways and require drivers to wear helmets, but we don't.