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Messages - ergophobe

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3016
Water Cooler / Re: Covid 19 interesting data from the UK
« on: May 24, 2020, 08:52:17 PM »
My takeaway is that the risk to my Mum is higher from Mental Illness than it is from coming to Supper with us.

How are you getting from that tool to that conclusion? I really don't understand the tool.

- How do I decide which RR to choose?
- What is the meaning of full suppression vs mitigation? The only one of the four scenarios they define is full suppression (only essential workers allowed to leave the house). All the others are not even minimally defined.

And then for comparing vs mental illness, I assume you are finding those numbers elsewhere and comparing them?

I'm very curious about this because
1. I have some friends who are actually having mental health issues due to Covid stress

2. I find myself asking a lot of questions about what level of risk is acceptable.

Regarding #2, the question I keep asking people is "What criteria do you need to meet before you will invite friends into your home or hop on a plane?"

Most people have no answer to that and they basically seem to be pinning their hopes on a vaccine. And that leads me to a basic followup question:

"We could have a vaccine in 18 months, but we've been looking for an AIDS vaccine for 35 years with no success. We've been looking for a malaria vaccine for decades with no real success. Let's say a vaccine is five years away and I'm not going to get on a plane until there's a vaccine. Our parents are aged 91, 87 and 84. If I don't get on a plane at all in the next five years, we are most likely deciding that we will never see one or more of our parents ever again. Are you so afraid of Covid you would never see your parent again?"

So to me, the gating condition is whether or not the healthcare system will be overwhelmed, not whether or not people will die. If it were the latter, we would have a 45mph speed limit on our highways and require drivers to wear helmets, but we don't.

3017
Water Cooler / Re: Darwin 2020
« on: May 24, 2020, 03:11:08 AM »
>>Bill Gates

The defining characteristic of our age seems to be the historically high frequency with which ignorance and outrage are coupled.

3018
Hardware & Technology / Re: The changed future after CV-19
« on: May 24, 2020, 03:03:03 AM »
What Buckworks said.

3019
>trains

Never understood the US in that regard, hard to beat a good train journey.

People per km^2
Japan: 333
UK: 280
Germany: 233
France: 123
US: 34

It just doesn't scale here. The high-speed rail project in California is a boondoggle and CA has 95 people per square km, approaching the levels of France. In the US, it only makes sense in the Northeast, but there it is so hard to get easements and a build a truly new route like they did in France with the TGV.

3020
However dont  you only need a meter if you are using it in an unheated room?

I don't need a meter at all until RC buys one and lets me borrow it.

I think you *need* a meter if you are selling disinfection services and are making a business of it.

I'm not 100% sure how I'll use them yet, but my plan is to let the run longer than I think I need and then let them sit idle longer than I think I need. It would be nice to have a meter just once or twice to calibrate.

I'm also thinking of using one in the sauna which, in that small space, should get it to a concentration to kill mildew. I really like that idea, because I don't like the idea of cleaning the sauna with chemicals that absorb into the wood and then volatilize when thing heats up.

3021
half life of 30 mins....

That is highly dependent on conditions. At -50C in a closed chamber with no contaminants, it is over a month. At 100C it's just a few minutes. Also affected by humidity, the number of organics and oxidative (right word) materials it comes in touch with.

I think to do it right if you want it as a primary defense, you need to get a meter. That ensures that the levels get high enough and ensures they get low enough before your re-enter the space. The only downside is the meters are way more expensive than the generators. About $400 for a basic one. I'm winging it for now and thinking of it as an "extra" not a "primary" measure. But if I find that months down the line I'm still using it, I might invest in a meter.

The general rule seems to be that you should not enter a room until concentration falls below 0.02ppm and that takes about an hour if you disinfect to a 0.5ppm to 5ppm level.

A 30-minute run at that level resulted in
 - 72% reduction in airborne bacteria at a 0.5ppm level
 - 93% reduction at 2.5ppm
 - 90% reduction after 30 mins at a 5ppm level, showing there isn't a lot of benefit past a certain point, partly because in the real world most rooms cannot be fully sealed during the process.

That's not a 30-minute run time on the machine. That's keeping the machine on for 30 minutes after the concentration reaches a given level and then waiting until it falls to a safe level to enter the room.

Viruses are supposedly more susceptible to ozone than bacteria, so the idea is that the virus reduction would be the same or better.
https://www.ozonetech.com/sites/default/files2/pdf/Ozone_disinfection_of_SARS_Contaminated_Areas.pdf


Some studies have found that even at concentrations of 100ppm to 1000ppm, it is difficult to get significant biocidal action, especially on porous materials. Unfortunately, on the abstract of that study seems to be available for free
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01919510903043772

3022
I'm trying to get my head around this - https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/medicare-hospitals-covid-patients/

No wonder there are conflicting views around the place

Don't know about the specifics of that but for sure of course hospitals understand the more work they do the more money they get. The real question is do they let that influence the treatment they do. Of course.

Yes, that is a problem with the fee-for-service model in the US. But remember, almost any condition that puts you in the ICU in the US is likely to get billed at $30,000/day or more. It was more than that 15 years ago after my wife had an accident, and she was not on a ventilator or subject to any extreme measures, just hooked up to a lot of monitors and with one nurse split with one other patient 24 hours per day. So I'm not surprised at all by those numbers for a Covid diagnosis with ventilator support.

A friend who is an anesthesiologist told me that as a result of Covid they were looking at bankruptcy in 6 months if the hospital stayed on a full-time Covid footing. Why? Because Medicare reimbursements, but in particular Medicaid reimbursements, are at a much lower rate than private insurance and the real money that makes their practice run is private insurance paying for non-urgent surgeries.

When the Medicaid For All proposal gained a lot of traction, they had a study done to see what would happen if all their patients paid at Medicaid rates. The answer was that if they did not reduce salaries of receptionists, nurses, etc, the physicians would earn $15/hr as their best guess.

Mayo Clinic is facing a three billion dollar loss as a result of Covid 19.
https://www.twincities.com/2020/04/10/facing-3b-loss-mayo-clinic-announces-payroll-spending-cuts-for-remainder-of-2020/

As far as I can tell from what I read and what I hear from doctor friends, the big effect of Covid is not a financial bonanza, but a major financial stress many parts of the US healthcare system.

The cynical side of me is thinking, however, that the AMA is getting their comeuppance for opposing healthcare reform for 40 years and we, as a nation, are getting our comeuppance for allowing the corporatization of hospitals. But that's for another day. And, within the utterly screwed up system we've built for ourselves in the US, this is going to take a big chunk out of healthcare revenue.

3023
Water Cooler / Re: Terminator Scenario
« on: May 18, 2020, 03:31:08 AM »
CAPTCHA updated for the robot apocalypse
https://xkcd.com/2228/

3024
I'm thinking the HEROES Act is just a grandstanding pre-election ploy by the Dems, knowing that the GOP would kill it.

The House’s latest coronavirus relief bill gives stimulus payments to unauthorized immigrants
https://www.vox.com/2020/5/16/21260906/house-stimulus-check-immigrants-heroes-act

If I were trying to design a bill that couldn't possibly pass the Senate, but could pass in the House, my first choice would be to allot millions of dollars to fund emergency abortion clinics. My second choice would be stimulus checks for unauthorized immigrants.

That said, it is shameful that we live in a country where 50% of the workers in agriculture and food processing are illegal immigrants, now considered essential workers. How did we get here?

3025
Water Cooler / Re: Quotes that hit home
« on: May 17, 2020, 04:14:49 PM »
Another of my favorite ranger quotes. Carl Sharsmith worked as a seasonal ranger for 64 years (he was a botany professor in the winter). He was still leading flower walks in his last year of life at 91 years old. When your work the visitor center desk, sometimes people will ask you, "If you had just one day to spend in Yosemite, what would you do?"

Sharsmith's answer was, "If I had only one day to spend in Yosemite, I would walk to the Merced River, put my face in my hands, and cry."

Much more so than the bear one, that one really did hit home for me. It's a beautiful response. I never dared to use it, though, because it's also a bit negative.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Sharsmith

3026
Water Cooler / Re: Quotes that hit home
« on: May 17, 2020, 03:21:04 AM »
One of my favorites. Gets said a lot around here.

3027
Wisconsin should be an exception - by design, it can't really be underfunded. My payout will drop based on a five-year rolling average of returns on their investments, but they do not have fixed payouts. It could drop to zero, but the pension fund should never need to borrow.

3028
Water Cooler / Re: The World At War In 2020
« on: May 13, 2020, 08:08:47 PM »
>>China

Watch what happens there. I previously recommended HR McMaster's article in The Atlantic. I would recommend it again. A former Trump insider in a well-known liberal magazine feels like it has balance and credibility.

3030
Water Cooler / Re: Drilled into my finger today!
« on: May 12, 2020, 05:29:39 PM »
Ouch!


>>pain
Yup. A couple of rest days here after getting a substantial impact on my left arm. Can't open jars now. After the initial impact, I thought I was going to throw up. But probably not as bad as your finger.

>>'If I'm not bleeding, I'm not working.'

The carpenter who was doing the finish work on our house was almost done when he double-tapped with the nail gun and drove a nail right through his thumb and nailed it to the wall. Pulled out his hammer, pried the thumb and nail out of the wall, grabbed some pliers and extracted the nail, pulled out some electricians tape, wrapped the thumb, and finished putting in the last closet shelves. He lived about 1.5 hours away and he said, "Yeah, no way I was doing that drive again just to come back for a few quick shelves." Tough guy.

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