Author Topic: California burning again  (Read 18068 times)

littleman

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Re: California burning again
« Reply #45 on: August 31, 2020, 03:21:32 AM »
Jen was just commenting on how the orange moon is very pretty.  We're all very fatigued by the double restriction of smoke and covid.  You should tell your sister to get some El Roy's to go.  It won't fix anything, but it will make it slightly more tolerable.

ergophobe

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Re: California burning again
« Reply #46 on: August 31, 2020, 06:34:11 PM »
Ice cream consumption is way up nationally and I think our household may be single-handedly responsible for 0.01% of the increase. I believe it helps considerable offset the health effects of Covid mania and smokey air.

littleman

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Re: California burning again
« Reply #47 on: September 02, 2020, 09:52:38 PM »
>“I look outside and I go, ‘Oh geez, it smells like smoke, dammit.”

That stops working after about a week.  We've all lost our sense of smell.

ergophobe

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Re: California burning again
« Reply #48 on: September 03, 2020, 01:31:21 AM »
Do you have a good air filter? Or a few of them? This time around it hasn't been so bad, but there have been times where we've fun a filter and thought, "It's not so bad," and the you step outside.

Currently, the PM2.5 is not too bad here (in the 20s on most monitors), but visually it seems pretty smoky.

Just think what California will be like if we ever get back to the pre-1800 levels of fire. We'll probably never see that again, but we're going to need a lot more fire over the next 20-30 years, so what we're seeing these last few days is likely to be typical skies for much of the summer in the future as it was in the past. I doubt there's the political will to burn as much as we need to, but I see a big change since I first started doing fire education talks 10 years ago and now. People are starting to realize that we can't suppress our way out of this.

nffc

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Re: California burning again
« Reply #49 on: September 03, 2020, 05:44:13 AM »
>air filter

I have these in Hanoi where the air quality can be a little challenging, expensive but very good

https://www.lg.com/us/air-care-solutions/lg-AS560DWR0-air-purifier

DrCool

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Re: California burning again
« Reply #50 on: September 03, 2020, 03:37:06 PM »
>“I look outside and I go, ‘Oh geez, it smells like smoke, dammit.”

We get some pretty decent smoke blowing through here most years from fires in the middle of the state. If I can look down the road and see Mt. Spokane I know it isn't too bad. If I can't see the mountain I know the air quality is bad.

Or if I fire up the smoker and can't distinguish the good smoke coming from there vs. the bad smoke in the air I know it is bad.

littleman

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Re: California burning again
« Reply #51 on: September 03, 2020, 07:40:13 PM »
We have filters and they work, but the problem is that our place is a bit drafty and smoke was seeping in at a faster rate than the filters were able to clear out.  Usually having a drafty house isn't really a problem here with the mild weather year round.  It peaked a couple of days ago.  That orange moon I mentioned earlier was actually a shade of red -- very cool looking, but a bit disconcerting because we knew it was caused by massive amounts of smoke.  The air quality is much better today.

ergophobe

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Re: California burning again
« Reply #52 on: September 04, 2020, 12:04:25 AM »
Wildfires Hasten Another Climate Crisis: Homeowners Who Can’t Get Insurance
Quote
Insurers, facing huge losses, have been pulling back from fire-prone areas across California. “The marketplace has largely collapsed,” an advocate for counties in the state said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/climate/wildfires-insurance.html

Quote
The result is a dilemma for governments. Either let rates rise, squeezing homeowners, or take the chance that more insurers will pull back from vulnerable areas, as many across the West are doing already. Without insurance, banks won’t issue mortgages, making homes harder to buy or sell.

The challenges are especially pronounced in California, where regulations lean toward consumer protection. The state forbids insurance companies from setting rates based on what they expect in future damages. Insurers are allowed to set rates only based on prior losses.

Regulators also forbid insurers from passing along the costs of buying their own insurance, which they do to soften the blow of unexpectedly big losses. As wildfires get worse, those costs for insurers are going up as well.

Both rules were designed to guard against higher rates. But in the age of climate change, insurers say those rules have prevented them from keeping up with wildfire damage.

My insurance costs about 1.4% of the cost to rebuild my home - as a homeowner, that seems high, but if I look at it from the perspective of an insurer, that seems low. Short of major changes in the way people view fire, manage forests, set air quality rules in California cities, determine responsibility for fires and so forth, I can't imagine my house lasting 71 years without being destroyed by fire.
« Last Edit: September 04, 2020, 12:10:22 AM by ergophobe »

ergophobe

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Re: California burning again
« Reply #53 on: September 06, 2020, 07:57:32 PM »
And again... 6:45pm the Creek Fire broke out 45 miles south of us. It has already covered about a third of that distance, burning 36,000 acres in the first 14 hours. The videos are horrifying.

Warning: NSFC (not safe for children)

Great work by fire fighter, sheriffs departments and National Guard, who decided that in some circumstances there are more important things than social distancing
https://twitter.com/ChiefNGB/status/1302632718208045058?s=20

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/05/us/california-mammoth-pool-reservoir-camp-fire/index.html

Insane video of campers at Mammoth Pools. If you are a Catholic of a certain age, you'll recognize these images. It's what you were taught to expect if you were bad.
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/1302641414501814279?s=20


littleman

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Re: California burning again
« Reply #54 on: September 06, 2020, 08:03:19 PM »
Is there a recent previous burn in between you and the fire that might act as a buffer?

ergophobe

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Re: California burning again
« Reply #55 on: September 06, 2020, 09:06:59 PM »
Yes. It's headed toward Wawona and that means it should hit the 2017 Empire footprint to the north of town, the 2018 Ferguson footprint west and north and the 2017 Railroad footprint west and south.

But to the southeast, which is where this fire is coming from, Wawona has no recent burn history. So we're most likely fine and Wawona is probably not in great danger, but it's scary. Nick Nausler, a fire meteorologist had this on Twitter:

"Based on MODIS data, the #CreekFire is 115,000+ acres now and probably closer to 125,000 acres. A 24-hr, 115k+ acre "plume-dominated" run in timber is nearly unprecedented. Surreal to watch it yesterday and think it was going to burn 30k-50k acres and then see 115k+ #CAwx #CAfire"
https://twitter.com/NickyNaus/status/1302592911956013061?s=20

There's some incredible stuff on Twitter....

"Scary footage of pyrocumulus "column collapse" earlier this AM. This occurs when there is temporary interruption in sustained fire updraft strength & air falls rapidly back toward surface--similar to thunderstorm downburst. Extremely dangerous conditions. #CAwx #CAfire #CreekFire"
https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1302629728352755717?s=20

The first is so big, so hot, turning so much embodied wood energy into heat energy that on the satellite imagery you can see lightning strikes in the smoke plume caused by the smoke plume itself. This is completely insane
https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1302671067257819141?s=20

Here it's like liate evening. The photo-sensor lights on the neighbors' driveway are on and it's silent - no birds, no squirrels.... nobody active.

littleman

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Re: California burning again
« Reply #56 on: September 07, 2020, 01:03:12 AM »
That footage is incredible.

For those who don't know, we are having a heat wave at the same time making it very dangerous for the fire fighters.  The local temperature hit 107°F/41.67°C today. 

rcjordan

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Re: California burning again
« Reply #57 on: September 07, 2020, 01:27:49 AM »
Los Angeles records city's highest temperature ever on record - ABC News
https://abcnews.go.com/US/los-angeles-records-citys-highest-temperature-record/story?id=72855640

ergophobe

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Re: California burning again
« Reply #58 on: September 07, 2020, 02:03:44 AM »
>>we are having a heat wave at the same time making it very dangerous for the fire fighters

I was just talking to a friend who is one of the NPS people involved with the fire response and he said one of the fire chiefs said, "It's going to be a wild ride for a few days." Resources are stretched thin, the terrain is very rugged (yesterday the fire was burning from 3000 feet to 9000 feet), the foliage humidity levels are extremely low, there are record temperatures and there are winds.

This fire was at a reported 50,000 acres, but satellite imagery suggests more like 100,000 acres and they have 450 firefighters and 12 engines.  So for 150 square miles, and rapidly becoming 200, they have basically three firefighters per square mile. It's not become a Type 1 incident, which means resources will be flowing in rapidly especially as the other big fires are winding down, but usually they don't make much headway on a fire like this until they get to about 3000 firefighters and 50 aircraft. With anything under 1000, they are just trying to save lives and protect critical infrastructure.

And... everyone south of us is on evacuation watch. We're on the border. I spent the day leafblowing the roof, gutters, any corners where things accumulate, cutting brush that I've been planning to cut for a month. I'm not worried, since we're pretty well protected because of recent fires, but those are all things that I should be doing monthly anyway, so why not now.

rcjordan

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Re: California burning again
« Reply #59 on: September 08, 2020, 07:40:51 PM »