Author Topic: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves  (Read 58545 times)

ergophobe

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 5982
    • View Profile
Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1080 on: October 17, 2020, 09:06:30 PM »
>>or there are fewer people over 65 in India.

https://www.populationpyramid.net/india/2020/ - 3.3% over 65 and 0.4% over 80
https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/2020/ - 16.1% over 65 and 5.8% over 80

Put another way, the population of India is 11x that of Japan, but Japan about as many people over 80.

Or closer to home for you, India has 20X the population of the UK but only 3x the number over 80.

Have you been following the pro/con controversy over the Great Barrington Declaration?

Rupert

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 2752
  • George in a previous life.
    • View Profile
    • SuitsMen
Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1081 on: October 18, 2020, 06:14:25 AM »
Quote
pro/con controversy over the Great Barrington Declaration
No thx, got it now.
seems the issues with it are:
Quote
natural infections may not induce lifelong immunity,"
Death rate is too high

I think Brazil and India have already gone for it.

Thanks for the population data too.
... Make sure you live before you die.

littleman

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5311
    • View Profile
Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1082 on: October 18, 2020, 07:22:12 AM »
In the US we are heading into new infection rate territory.

Friday was +71,688!

littleman

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5311
    • View Profile

Rupert

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 2752
  • George in a previous life.
    • View Profile
    • SuitsMen
Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1084 on: October 18, 2020, 07:47:59 AM »
But Not Many LM. Thats the good news.

My leaning has been going this way for some time, and I am beginning to believe that we have enough data for this to work now:

https://gbdeclaration.org/video/

Loads of epidemiologies are supporting this. But it is being suppressed as an idea in the UK up until now.

how did you find it Ergo?
... Make sure you live before you die.

Rupert

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 2752
  • George in a previous life.
    • View Profile
    • SuitsMen
Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1085 on: October 18, 2020, 10:07:59 AM »
The impact of lockdown is different in different parts of the world. 
some places it is starvation, others increased deaths due to cancer treatments delayed, and here is one for Africa:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30308-9/fulltext
The immunisation for Diptheria is under threat, beacuse of covid, and the cost of not doing it is high.  The GBD folks suggest a diptheria epidemic is now when not if.
... Make sure you live before you die.

buckworks

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1086 on: October 18, 2020, 10:26:30 AM »
It puzzles me how some jurisdictions are willing to impose lockdowns but they won't take the much simpler and less disruptive step of making masks mandatory.

I'd have more respect for the GBD if they had mentioned masks.

Rupert

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 2752
  • George in a previous life.
    • View Profile
    • SuitsMen
Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1087 on: October 18, 2020, 10:46:14 AM »
Quote
I'd have more respect for the GBD if they had mentioned masks.

I am partway through the videos.  They do I think.  I have not been paying it full attention (Sunday breakfast). A transcript of the video does not seem to be available yet, its 2 hours long. There is a journalist from WSJ asking questions.

The message is to continue with sensible controls, we have to protect the vulnerable.  That is a very key part of the message. It is an age targetted approach.

They are calling for a debate. I see the hand of the "Social Dilemma" suppressing this debate.

This is not a minority professional view. (Not that's an issue, thinking flat earth :) )

added. Where they start talking about masks;
https://youtu.be/jtiInz1DWuA?t=4422
« Last Edit: October 18, 2020, 10:52:23 AM by Rupert »
... Make sure you live before you die.

Rupert

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 2752
  • George in a previous life.
    • View Profile
    • SuitsMen
Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1088 on: October 18, 2020, 02:45:21 PM »
The Guardian just flames the GBD, these responses are better if short:

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-barrington-declaration-an-open-letter-arguing-against-lockdown-policies-and-for-focused-protection/

The Spectator seems to support them (Boris's old paper )

some of these have good points, others, if they are experts, I think are not being helpful:
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-barrington-declaration-an-open-letter-arguing-against-lockdown-policies-and-for-focused-protection/

There is a heavy backlash of the Koch support for it.... Branded as climate deniers (could be right not looked)

... Make sure you live before you die.

ergophobe

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 5982
    • View Profile
Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1089 on: October 18, 2020, 09:31:27 PM »
>>how did you find it Ergo?

I'm not sure what you mean. Are you asking, "how did I find the videos," meaning did I like/agree with them, then I would just say I don't really watch much video and didn't watch those.

If you are asking, "How did I learn about the Great Barrington Declaration?" then I really can't answer. It's been getting a lot of attention because the Beloved Leader is very sympathetic to the idea. Recently Scott Atlas met with the GB principals, so that pushed it into the US news cycle I guess. And in case you aren't keeping up, the Beloved Leader has grown tired of Anthony Fauci and now depends more on Scott Atlas (a neuroradiologist with no epidemiology training and subject of scathing remarks by Robert Redfield, the head of the CDC).

I saw the stuff in the Guardian but...
>>Guardian just flames

I agree. The Guardian reads highly polemical these days. I heard one journalist say the tragedy of the Trump era is that everyone who covers Trump becomes more like Trump (polemical, yelling, crafting facts to fit their story).

Vox does a fair bit of yelling too (it seems impossible to escape these days). But the best journalists on Vox, though further left than even the Guardian (without being The Nation or Mother Jones), are more measured in their coverage. For example, the other day Ezra Klein did a 90-minute interview with someone who thinks John Bolton is a great man and that Trump should be president because he has great foreign policy. They had a calm, respectful, intelligent discussion, not a debate, aimed at understanding her position, not combatting it.

This seems like a pretty evenhanded report on it:

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/21517702/great-barrington-declaration-john-snow-memorandum-explained-herd-immunity

Rupert

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 2752
  • George in a previous life.
    • View Profile
    • SuitsMen
Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1090 on: October 19, 2020, 11:48:21 AM »
Excellent thanks.
Quote
If you are asking, "How did I learn about the Great Barrington Declaration?"
That was the question.  In the UK it has been suppressed largely, so we are only just hearing about it.

I have attached a Sage report on the idea of herd immunity, that is quite recent, and it took a lot of digging to find.  The one surprise I have is that it links to newspapers. Not what I expect from a scientific approach, it feels wrong.

The key point that I think the GBD miss is how long does the immunity last. Which I agreee LM, is related to the reinfections. There are others. Like how to separate out the !At risk" I cannot help thinking that so much money is thrown at supporting business that do nothing, some money can be found to make them secure.
... Make sure you live before you die.

rcjordan

  • I'm consulting the authorities on the subject
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10387
  • Debbie says...
    • View Profile
Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1091 on: October 19, 2020, 01:08:56 PM »
UK: Deaths at home: More than 26,000 extra this year, ONS finds - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54598728