A new coronavirus that has spread to almost 2,000 people is infectious in its incubation period - before symptoms show - making it harder to contain, Chinese officials say.
You wearing a mask Mark?
At this point there's no cure, only supportive treatment. If you catch this it will be your own immune system that gets you through.
Huge potential BS on this but the thread has some interesting ideas.
https://twitter.com/inteldotwav/status/1226267582740811777?s=21
whatever you normally buy when you are sick, but consider you may be sick for 3- 4 weeks… Big bottles of Advil, lozenges, elderberry syrup, Vitamin C and D, masks, disposable gloves, Robitussin flu/cough, Vick’s vapor cream, bleach, Lysol wipes and sprays, hand soap and sanitizer, laundry detergent and sanitizing bleach, toilet paper, canned soups, peanut butter, coffee, honey, pet food, tissues, toilet paper. Whatever else you do not want to be out of if you can’t shop or shelves are bare. A good thermometer and oximeter. Prescriptions. If you have a health savings account, check out the HSA store. Some things can even be purchased with your HSA account. Plastic sheeting or plastic party tablecloths for covering things. Hope this helps.
It’s mad looking out there. Welding apartment doors shut etc.
Front the analysis of death cases, it emerged that the demographic profile was mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#nhc
NPR was interviewing a man who reported that if six people are sick in an apartment they will not let anyone leave it. He said that they are not being given any food.
I don't consider it hysteria when people have sober, practical discussions about ways to prepare our households for uncertain developments.
stock up on groceries
My own response, as I've mentioned, is to stock up on groceries etc. so we could stay in for an extended period if that seemed wise. I figure it's important to take such action early so that stores can restock the things I buy.
If no trouble comes our way we can just eat our supplies.
Dear Industry Colleague,
Visit California continues to closely monitor the coronavirus outbreak. Our offices throughout China and across Asia, as well as our Sacramento team, are working closely with industry partners and Gov. Newsom’s senior administration officials to ensure we have the most accurate and timely information. Visit California is encouraging a measured response as the outbreak develops and information continues to emerge.
Travel Impacts
• The U.S. government has temporarily banned entry of foreign nationals who have traveled to China within the last 14 days.
• Air service to and from China has been suspended by all U.S. and most Chinese carriers, with the exception of a few flights per week. These cancelations account for 87% of total seats. Most suspensions will run through March.
Visit California’s Response
• All China programs, including travel trade, public relations and consumer advertising, are paused.
• Visit California’s April 6-10 China Sales and Media Mission is postponed, as are all FAMs involving travel from China.
• Visit California is keeping followers updated on Chinese social media, including Weibo and WeChat.
• Visit California has delayed its spring consumer campaign for approximately two weeks. It is now scheduled to roll out on April 6.
Industry Implications
• Tourism Economics is now projecting a 27% decline in visits and spend to California from China in 2020. Even with this downgrade, overall visitor spending — from U.S. and international markets combined — is still projected to increase 2.9% in California this year.
• Industry experts expect a rebound in Chinese tourism to begin in April and rise throughout 2020.
Visit California’s efforts over the past decade have given California a dominant share of the Chinese travel market. We are confident that Chinese travel to California will rebound once the outbreak is contained, and California’s high brand awareness positions the state to recover more quickly than our competitors. Although it is too early to predict specifics, China will remain California’s top overseas visitor market and a priority for Visit California’s marketing efforts.
For additional resources, please reference this comprehensive brief. The U.S. Travel Association has also provided a helpful toolkit. It includes a guide to communicating healthy travel practices and media talking points.
I look forward to seeing you next week at Visit California’s 2020 Outlook Forum and the Winter Board Meeting, where the outbreak and plans for the Chinese market will be discussed in greater detail.
Sincerely,
Caroline Beteta
President & CEO
My daughter (UK) is under house quarantine. Got back from japan 27th, got a bit of a cold, she dialled 111 (UK helpline) and they told her not to leave the house until they say so.
99.99999999999% its just a cold. Reassuring to see that they on it though.
My daughter (UK) is under house quarantine. Got back from japan 27th, got a bit of a cold,
Yes, out of "quarantine" on Thursday.
I said prepping included toilet roll to someone :-)
Youth can certainly contract the virus. Among the infected are at least two newborns, according to Chinese health officials. But few children are among those sick enough to be diagnosed with the coronavirus, according to an article published Feb. 5 in the Journal of the American Medical Association. According to the data analyzed in that article — and numbers are changing quickly as the outbreak evolves — the median age of patients skews older, between 49 and 56 years old.
| AGE | DEATH RATE |
| 80+ years old | 14.8% |
| 70-79 years old | 8.0% |
| 60-69 years old | 3.6% |
| 50-59 years old | 1.3% |
| 40-49 years old | 0.4% |
| 30-39 years old | 0.2% |
| 20-29 years old | 0.2% |
| 10-19 years old | 0.2% |
| 0-9 years old | no fatalities |
| PRE-EXISTING CONDITION | DEATH RATE |
| Cardiovascular disease | 10.5% |
| Diabetes | 7.3% |
| Chronic respiratory disease | 6.3% |
| Hypertension | 6.0% |
| Cancer | 5.6% |
| no pre-existing conditions | 0.9% |
Been a tough weekend.
Now into our 5th week of self-isolation.
It’s normal now, not going out but L and I are finding it difficult having no time to ourselves now that our eldest refuses to sleep.
Last week he said that the process of vaccine development was proving “very difficult and very frustrating.”
A new case of novel coronavirus has been confirmed in Northern California, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday, adding the case is not tied to the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8052775/White-House-GAGS-government-health-experts-speaking-coronavirus.html
"White House GAGS government health experts from speaking about coronavirus saying they must have Mike Pence's approval for EVERYTHING they say about mounting crisis - despite VP having zero medical qualifications"
PORTLAND, OR — Oregon health officials have determined what they say is the "first presumptive case" of the new coronavirus in the state, and the Lake Oswego School District, where the person works, said Friday students and staff may have been infected
At Friday's media briefing, health officials said a Snohomish County high school student tested positive for the virus but had no recent travels, nor an immediately apparent source for his illness. According to the state Department of Health, the teen visited the Seattle Children's North Clinic on Monday and is currently in home isolation.
...
In King County, public health officials said a woman in her 50s tested positive after returning from travel in Daegu, South Korea. She went to work in Seattle on Tuesday and began to notice symptoms by the end of the workday. King County Public Health said the woman had a "mild illness" and was being monitored in isolation at home.
I’ve just seen the costs associated with getting tested and the peripheral costs in the US.
At least one American has already incurred hefty bills for seeking treatment for what he feared might be a coronavirus infection. When he developed flu-like symptoms after returning to Miami from a work trip to China, Osmel Martinez Azcue took himself to Jackson Memorial Hospital for testing. He asked for a flu test instead of the CT scan hospital staff wanted to conduct.
The flu test came back positive. Two weeks later, Azcue received an insurance claim for $3,270. His portion: $1,400.
“One of the disadvantages the US has in trying to tackle Covid-19 is that many people avoid going to see a health care provider because they are worried about the cost,” said Gavin Yamey, professor of global health and public policy at Duke University.
However, CV is highly contagious,
Officials in the Seattle area announced two cases related to a possible outbreak at a long-term nursing home, Life Care Center in Kirkland. The elderly are considered to be especially vulnerable to infection.
One patient is a health-care worker in her 40s who was in satisfactory condition, according to state health officials. The other, a resident in her 70s, is in serious condition.
A male in his 70s, a resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The man had underlying health conditions, and died 3/1/20
A female in her 70s, a resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The woman had underlying health conditions, and died 3/1/20
In addition, a woman in her 80s, who was already reported as in critical condition at Evergreen, has died. She died on 3/1/20
Canceling non-essential travel
Blimey, that is more severe than my view... so do you think I should go to Austria Skiing at the end of March?
Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told The Wall Street Journal that "it's likely we'll see a global pandemic" of coronavirus, with 40 to 70 percent of the world's population likely to be infected this year.https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for
Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, says if the transmission estimate of 2.5 additional people for each infected rate is accurate, that would result in an "attack rate" that would affect 60 to 80 percent of the world's population.-- same as above
my-shield™ Hand Sanitizer is a fast-acting, alcohol- free formula product that kills germs, bacteria and viruses once applied. in addition to eliminating germs that are present on the skin, our proprietary nano-protective barrier Zetrisil offers long-lasting protection while aloe Vera gently moisturizes your skin. Protective barrier lasts up to 4 hours or 4-6 hand-washings at 100 percent effectiveness.
I just landed at JFK after reporting on #coronavirus in Milan and Lombardy —the epicenter of Italy’s outbreak— for @vicenews
. I walked right through US customs. They didn’t ask me where in Italy I went or if I came into contact with sick people. They didn’t ask me anything.
I just landed at JFK after reporting on #coronavirus in Milan and Lombardy —the epicenter of Italy’s outbreak— for @vicenews
. I walked right through US customs. They didn’t ask me where in Italy I went or if I came into contact with sick people. They didn’t ask me anything.
If you have friends/relatives who aren't taking this seriously this clip could help persuade them.
Numbers: this Twitter thread is worth a read.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html
Predicting the trend of an epidemic from limited data during early stages of the epidemic is often futile and sometimes misleading (3). Nevertheless, early prediction of the magnitude of an epidemic outbreak is immeasurably more important than retrospective studies. But how early is too early? Intuitively, the cumulative case curve will always be S-shaped and well-described by a logistic-type model. The essential factor is the time when the inflection of the cumulative case curve occurs, i.e., the moment when a rapid increase in case numbers is replaced by a slower increase. Since the inflection point, approximated by tm (1), dictates the point in time when the rate of increase of cumulative case numbers reaches its maximum, the moment marks the key turning point when the spread of the disease starts to decline. As long as the data include this inflection point and a time interval shortly after, the curve fitting and predicting future case number will be reasonably accurate.
Death rates range from less than 0.01% to 18%, depending on age.
I'm sure you are likely to be fine Ergo if you get CV, but imagine how you would alter your decisions if you were in direct contact with high risk people.
I keep seeing stuff about lack of testing.
Since the end of January, the number of new coronavirus diagnoses in China has been steadily declining (shown here as a graph) with now only 329 new diagnoses within the last day - one month ago it was around 3,000 a day. "This decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real," the report says.
5% of people who are diagnosed with Covid require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen - and not just for a few days. The duration from the beginning of the disease until recovery is 3 to 6 weeks on average for these severe and critical patients (compared to only 2 weeks for the mildly ill). The mass and duration of the treatments overburdened the existing health care system in Wuhan many times over.
Healthcare system: 20% of infected people in China needed hospital treatment for weeks. China has hospital beds to treat 0.4% of the population at the same time - other developed countries have between 0.1% and 1.3% and most of these beds are already occupied with people who have other diseases.
20% of infected people in China needed hospital treatment for weeks.
Since the virus is already out there, should I avoid plane travel just to be safe? After all, when you fly aren't you breathing in recycled air?
"The air's actually pretty clean. It gets recirculated through these HEPA filters that really are very good at clearing stuff out," says Vicki Hertzberg, a biostatistician at Emory University, who co-led a study on flights and disease transmission with scientists at Boeing. "So in some aspects, the air on a plane is cleaner than what's going on in your new office buildings."
Moreover, Dr. Mark Gendreau, chief medical officer at Beverly Hospital in Massachusetts, says that airlines have a high incentive to keep their ventilation systems well-maintained: "If the HEPA filter is not changed regularly, if the system is not maintained well, it puts a lot of drag on the engines, which will increase the fuel consumption, which is quite an expensive proposition."
Quote"The air's actually pretty clean. It gets recirculated through these HEPA filters that really are very good at clearing stuff out," says Vicki Hertzberg, a biostatistician at Emory University, who co-led a study on flights and disease transmission with scientists at Boeing. "So in some aspects, the air on a plane is cleaner than what's going on in your new office buildings."
I've been watching the coronavirus story with grave and growing concern.
In a nutshell, this thing spreads easily and hits hard. It's growing exponentially, and the story is certain to get worse before it gets better.
Our corner of the world seems normal for now but we need to be concerned.
I urge you to take practical actions NOW to be better prepared if trouble does come our way. Don't settle for "wait and see". The time to prepare for trouble is before it comes.
I urge you to get organized and supplied so your household could cope for an extended period if it became necessary to stay in. Stock up on groceries, meds and practical supplies so you could manage for several weeks without fresh supplies. Planning ahead is especially important for those with prescriptions or special dietary concerns.
Take action now while supply lines are still normal and stores can restock what you buy.
Some practical paranoia NOW might make a big difference to how well our families could weather the storm if it comes.
There's no downside to preparing. If the concern passes we can just eat our supplies.
"By faith Noah, being warned by God concerning events as yet unseen, in reverent fear constructed an ark for the saving of his household." Hebrews 11:7
"The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it." Proverbs 22:3
Vietnams first case in a while, number 17, flew in from London. 12 other people on the same flight have tested positive already. Business class with just 21 passengers.
The investigators said they chose "very conservative" methods to estimate the number of coronavirus cases. "This makes our current estimation [of more than 9,000] likely to be an underestimation of the true number of infected individuals in the U.S.," they wrote in a medical center news release.
Their paper has not been peer-reviewed and should be considered preliminary until that time. It's posted online on a forum where physicians and researchers share information.
"We are making the results public before peer review as it will be important for timely and informed public health decision-making. We are also making the model available to the research community so that others can build upon it,"
Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds | South China Morning Post
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay
The researchers also found that none of those passengers in the two buses who wore face masks were infected.
They said it vindicated the decision to ask people to wear a face mask in public.
CDC data now confirms that to date there have only been ~4000 persons tested in the entire United States total. By comparison, South Korea - a much smaller country - had tested over 65,000 people in the first week after their first case was detected.
I went P3 and eye protection.
so do you think I should go to Austria Skiing at the end of March?
Map tracking coronavirus outbreak worldwide, hourly.
lots of airlines bringing in a "if you already booked or about to book you can change flights free" stuff.
The airline I’m due to travel with has cancelled flights because it’s to an area where the FCO/DFA are advising against travel to and I can no longer travel am I covered?
Under EU Law your airline must let you choose between either a refund or an alternative flight.
-frozen fruits and veggies, frozen meats, frozen protein sources for Maddie
-canned veggies, beans, lots of canned tomatoes
-chicken stock, veggie stock
-dried fruits and nuts
-canned fish
-rice, dried beans, pasta/pasta sauce
-produce that won't go bad for a while like squash, onions, potatoes, cabbage, daikon and citrus fruit
-cheese (can put some in the freezer)
-butter, flour, yeast, sugar
-water (I didn't buy, but just filled up empty milk containers and rotate through them to water plants so they will be relatively fresh)
-toilet paper, paper towels, pads, tampons
-over the counter medications (allergy, pain)
-hand sanitizer, alcohol, wipes
There are quality of life items like:
-coffee/tea/favorite drinks
-chocolate
-favorite snacks/crackers, etc.
Trump Announces 30-Day Ban On All Travel From Europe With UK Exception To Combat Wuhan Virus
Adam,
There is a group of 10 of us, 3 families. We are booked to leave on 30th for 5 days.
I think that the flights will have been cancelled before we get to that date, and I am not cancelling, as then my insurance will not pay out.....
If I can fly, we "might" still go, but it really depends on what is happening on the ground, but I think it is getting to be unlikely. dont you?
is ports closing whilst we're away or some enforced quarantine that delays us getting home.
“The mortality rate is shocking,” said Mark Parkinson, president and chief executive of the American Health Care Association. He said the death rate might well exceed the 15 percent that had been reported in China for people aged 80 and older.
>Amazon
I'm just seeing small (pricy) packs of powdered milk now. You have a link?
Boris Johnson’s government hasn’t quite said it, but its plan for tackling coronavirus is clear: Slow the disease’s spread, but don’t stop it. Most people will get the disease, a lot of them will feel very ill, but almost all of them will recover.
The goal is “herd immunity” -- the point where a high enough proportion of the population has had an illness, and gained immunity to it, that it won’t be transmitted to those who haven’t had it. The aim is to achieve this over the summer months, before the next winter sets in.
"In the last hour, the Cypriot government has announced that only its citizens, along with other Europeans working on the island and people with special permits will be allowed into the country for a 15-day period beginning on Sunday."
Not the only ones either.
My Hotel has refunded... The whole of the Tyrol is shutting down this weekend. Just Easyjet to tackle.
I’ve been freezing milk for years?
You US folk are a little odd.
New governator not cutting any slack.
Governor Roy Cooper
@NC_Governor
Today, I’m issuing an Executive Order to stop mass gatherings of more than 100 people across the state. We issued this as guidance on Thursday, however, despite this guidance, several venues continued their events, so today’s order makes it mandatory.
4:31 PM · Mar 14, 2020
On order of the health officer, gatherings of more than 50 individuals are prohibited in San Mateo County effective 12:01 a.m. Sunday, March 15, 2020. Gatherings between 10 and 50 individuals are prohibited unless specific mitigation measures are taken:
The space in which the gathering is held must accommodate social distancing by allowing all attendees to stand or sit at least six feet from any other attendee;
Proper hand hygiene and sanitation material must be readily available to all persons at all times, including soap and waste receptacles. If soap and water are not available, alcohol-based hand sanitizer can be used.
Persons hosting gatherings must alert prospective attendees at least 24 hours prior to the gathering that gatherings pose a heightened risk of COVID-19 transmission, and that older adults and individuals with existing health conditions are at particularly serious risk if they contract COVID-19 and should not attend;
Persons hosting gatherings must clean surfaces with disinfecting wipes or other standard cleaners before, during, and after the event
The Mexican government telling everyone COVID-19 no big deal...
CORONAVIRUS COVID 19
IT'S NOT AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.
There is no need of cancelling massive events, working nor educational activities
There is also no need of panic buying.
Follow your normal activities but strengthen your prevention measures.
REMEMBER: The illness caused by the coronavirus COVID-19 is no big deal.
IF YOU TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF, WE'RE ALL TAKEN CARE OF!
The company says the delivery of the initial 400,000 test kits will be completed this week to laboratory testing sites throughout the country with many more on the way.
These undocumented infections are about half as contagious as documented infections because people are not coughing and sneezing.
Yet they were found to be responsible for about two-thirds of documented infections – because they are so abundant.
People with mild symptoms can transmit a disease that creates major disease in othersQin and colleagues dropped a solution containing the virus into two
monkeys’ eyes.
To their surprise, the researchers did not find the virus on the
surface of the monkeys’ eyes the next day. But several days later,
both animals tested positive.
Mr Trump said of the pandemic team that “some of the people we’ve cut they haven’t been used for many, many years and if we ever need them we can get them very quickly and rather then spending the money”.
“I’m a business person, I don’t like having thousands of people around when you don’t need them,” he added.
SC going on lockdown. No soup for you (me).
https://www.wyff4.com/article/south-carolina-governor-to-give-update-on-covid-19-at-4-pm/31703298
Mandatory: Restaurant and bars close dine-in service starting Wednesday, March 18.
Mandatory: South Carolina tax deadline extended to June 1
McMaster requesting non-emergency surgery to be halted
McMaster requesting insurance pay for COVID-19 office visits, test, procedures.
McMaster requesting grocery stores limit purchases of some items, begin having special hours for senior citizens
McMaster requesting private employers to allow employees to work from home.
Bee seeing a few of these on the backchannel;
Japanese man tests positive for coronavirus a second time
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/diamond-princess-cruise-ship-passenger-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-a-second-time/
California's schools will likely stay closed for the rest of the academic year over coronavirus concerns, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Tuesday in a jaw-dropping prediction for families barely settling into new weekday routines with children at home.
"This is a very sobering thing to say," Newsom said, as he warned that schools are unlikely to reopen in the coming weeks and will more than likely remain closed until the summer break. "I don't want to mislead you."
The valve typically costs about $11,000 — the volunteers made them for about $1
The government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance told the health select committee that a death rate of one fatality for every 1,000 cases was a "reasonable ballpark" figure, based on scientific modelling.
The government is primarily testing people who are in hospital so many people who have mild symptoms may never be diagnosed with the virus.
UK schools to shut indefinitely from Friday. No exams this summer.
Chart: Industries most hit by coronavirus crisis, according to Moody's - Business Insider
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recession-industries-hit-chart-2020-3
>> how it was affecting him
Maybe his products are manufactured in an affected country?
China COVID-19 study: blood type O are more resistant, type A are more susceptible to infection
One thing people don’t know about is the “toilet cloud plume”. When you flush the toilet with the lid open, you spray virus over every surface in that bathroom.
We should know MUCH MORE in 2 weeks.
When is it time for "RECOVERY" Thread?
Italy asking the world to listen and react before it's too late:
A letter from Italy,
peace for all,
We live in Italy - Milan,
I'm going to share with you and explain to you, "How is life here in Milan" during these difficult days and how do I think you should learn from the mistakes and their consequences that we live here.
We are currently in quarantine. We don't take to the streets, the police are in constant motion and arrest anyone outside his home.
Everything is closed! ... business, malls, stores, all streets without movement.
Feeling of the end of the world !!
Italy, the country of living life, is transformed from one moment to the next as if it were a dark country of war.
It is a fact that I never thought I would ever live!
People are confused, sad, anxious and helpless, and often do not understand how this reality was imposed on them and when this whole nightmare will end.
The big mistake was that at the start of the first hit people continued to lead their lives as usual and took to the streets for work, entertainment and feeling like a vacation period, so gatherings with friends and banquets abound.
Everyone was wrong and so were you!
I beg you, be careful, this is neither a laugh nor a joke.
Protect your loved ones, your parents, and your grandparents! The disease is dangerous for them.
About 200 people die here every day, not because medicine in Milan is not good (it's one of the best in the world), but rather because there are no places for everyone!
Doctors choose who will die! This is only because of the silliness of the citizens at the beginning, who decided to continue their lives as usual, regardless of the new situation!
Please, learn from the mistakes, we are a small country that could end up with a great tragedy.
Listen well now ,,, 🙏
Don't go out into crowded places.
Try not to eat in public places.
Stay longer at home during this time!
Listen to the Ministry of Health guidelines (don't play it!).
Talk about a meter away from each person, do not come close, do not cuddle or accept.
Get a complementary and preventive treatment and learn from others' mistakes.
We recommend that you take vitamin C to boost your immune system.
Helping professionals prevent the spread of the epidemic ...
In Italy, the entire country is isolated, meaning 60 million people in quarantine !!
This would have been prevented if people had heard the instructions from the beginning.
Take care of yourself and the life of the one you love ❤❤
Share the message to all people Jsc
Kirkland WA nursing home; 35 dead
The Coronavirus’s Rampage Through a Suburban Nursing Home - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/us/coronavirus-nursing-home-kirkland-life-care.html
When is it time for "RECOVERY" Thread?
In the last few weeks, China has donated coronavirus testing kits to Cambodia, sent planeloads of ventilators, masks and medics to Italy and France, pledged to help the Philippines, Spain and other countries, and deployed medics to Iran and Iraq.
The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, has offered comforting words, telling the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, that “sunshine comes after the storm”, and adding that the two countries should step up cooperation and exchanges after the outbreak.
“Not only would it be a violation of [habeas corpus], but it says ‘affecting pre-arrest.’ So that means you could be arrested and never brought before a judge until they decide that the emergency or the civil disobedience is over. I find it absolutely terrifying. Especially in a time of emergency, we should be very careful about granting new powers to the government.”
What could this possibly achieve for the public good that existing laws don't already cover?
I'm seeing more studies that show 60%+ are either asymptomatic or mildly-symptomatic COVID19 shedders. Any combination of sinus congestion, mildly sore throat, sniffle, occasional wet or dry cough, mild headache or fever, diarrhea, then better. Not anywhere near serious enough to go get checked out. Unfortunately they're still very contagious. Kids especially.
This could pose a long-term risk to more at-risk populations.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00822-x
https://twitter.com/Doc_Sands/status/1241825223130746880 (interesting mild symptom case)
QuoteChina COVID-19 study: blood type O are more resistant, type A are more susceptible to infection
Lucky Rabbit then:
A priest, a minister, and a rabbit walk in to donate blood. The rabbit says, I think I might be a type-O.
Duck....
>Confident you will be in the Gold medal slot very soon.
The Trump administration seems to want to ease off coronavirus prevention measures to protect the crashing economy
US military
https://twitter.com/usarmy/status/1241185656094801923?s=21
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-
19 mortality and healthcare demand
Summary
The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the
most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the
results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries
in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of
public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing
contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented
here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain
specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely
to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on
transmission.
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily
stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of
severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing
case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major
challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases,
home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the
elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and
deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of
thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many
times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.
We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social
distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family
members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be
recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased
absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package –
or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a
vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission
will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing –
triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in
relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers
rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in
the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and
economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced
Gold medal slot very soon.
Just happened. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/coronavirus-news.html)
https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1243168931503882241
Even I found this Police drone footage shocking. Almost like they wanted to add TERMINATE to the graphics.
Could loss of taste, smell be linked to COVID-19? 2 N.J. doctors say evidence is mounting.
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/could-loss-of-taste-smell-be-linked-to-covid-19-2-nj-doctors-say-evidence-is-mounting.html
One of Vietnam's largest hospitals locked down amid virus fears
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/03/29/one-of-vietnam039s-largest-hospitals-locked-down-amid-virus-fears
VIRGINIA PASTOR DIES FROM CORONAVIRUS AFTER PREVIOUSLY SAYING 'MEDIA IS PUMPING OUT FEAR' ABOUT PANDEMIC
https://www.newsweek.com/virginia-pastor-dies-coronavirus-after-previously-saying-media-pumping-out-fear-about-pandemic-1494702
1716/0.01 = 171,600 cases in the USA ~20 days earlier, March 7.
The Battelle process uses “vapor phase hydrogen peroxide” to sanitize the N95 masks, allowing them to be reused up to 20 times, the company said in a statement.
I'm not convinced we'll do the smart thing.
'For the first time in history, you can save humanity by sitting on your couch and watching TV, surfing the internet and playing video games. For God's sake, don't screw this up people.'
“And what was really cool, what they did is started looking for local solutions in their communities, not looking to Aunt Millie’s or Wonder Bread or something like that. They were looking for local opportunities,”
The Coast Guard statement said as of Saturday there are 114 cruise ships, carrying 93,000 crew members, either in or near U.S. ports and waters.
40 out of 60 had the antibodies
Kinda sums up where we are at: sh## creek.
“We decided enough is enough: let's use the power of the purchasing power of the state of California as a nation-state," he added.
It's THREE days ...or 17 days on a cruise ship!!
He said the retailer is seeing interesting changes in what people shop for, too.
“All the do-it-yourself types of items like hair coloring and beard trimmers are selling quite well,” he said. “Sewing machines are flying off the shelf as well because a lot of people are selling and making their own masks at their house.”
Vietnam’s low-cost Covid-19 strategy (https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/vietnams-low-cost-covid-19-strategy/)
Escape from New York City
Only 5% of COVID-19 deaths in New York state were among asthmatic patients, although the condition is prevalent in about 8% of the country’s population
Nearly eight percent of the U.S. population — close to 25 million people — has asthma
In the race to find a treatment, UofL says it has developed a technology believed to block SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, from infecting human cells.
They explained it this way: The technology is based on a piece of synthetic DNA, or an “aptamer,” which targets and binds with a human protein called nucleolin.
Researchers said early tests show this aptamer may stop viruses, including novel coronavirus, from “hijacking” nucleolin to replicate inside the body.
"What we found was this is a safe kind of drug. It had very few side effects and that's why we're so excited about the prospects of moving this forward as a treatment for coronavirus. We don't think there's going to be any serious side effects," Paula Bates, a University School of Medicine professor, said. Hear from Bates in the video player above.
They may sleep more than usual or stop eating. They may seem unusually apathetic or confused, losing orientation to their surroundings. They may become dizzy and fall. Sometimes, seniors stop speaking or simply collapse.
They may sleep more than usual or stop eating. They may seem unusually apathetic or confused, losing orientation to their surroundings. They may become dizzy and fall. Sometimes, seniors stop speaking or simply collapse.
While hundreds in South Korea have tested positive again after their release from hospitals, Oh Myoung-don, who heads the country's central clinical committee on new infectious diseases, told a news conference on Wednesday there was a “high possibility” that such test results were flawed.
He said South Korea''s standard real-time PCR tests, designed to amplify the genetic materials of the virus so that even tiny quantities are detected, doesn't reliably distinguish between remains of dead virus and infectious particles. He said lab tests on animals suggest that COVID-19 patients would maintain immunity for at least a year after their infections.
When a patient tests positive here, Kim’s team retraces their movements based on their oral testimony, and then combs through relevant C.C.T.V. footage in order to locate others who might have been exposed. Restaurants, where peopleQuotemust take their masks off to eat, are the most common sites of exposure.“Say there’s someone who was within two metres of the patient at a restaurant, but we don’t know who that person is, except what they look like in the C.C.T.V. footage,” Kim said.
He told broadcaster BFMTV that his team revisited negative tests for flu and other coronaviruses on 24 patients who had been admitted to hospital with respiratory symptoms in December and January. He said: ‘Of the 24 patients, we had one positive result for Covid-19 on 27 December when he was in hospital with us.’
Dr Cohen said his team repeated the tests several times to confirm the result.
He is now calling for other negative test samples from the same time to be reviewed, adding that he has reported the case to the regional health authorities.
These guys seem to have the right idea:
Living on a Self-Sufficient Sailboat for 10 Years + FULL TOUR
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk83N2u1ZmY
After studying global data from the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, researchers have discovered a strong correlation between severe vitamin D deficiency and mortality rates.
Led by Northwestern University, the research team conducted a statistical analysis of data from hospitals and clinics across China, France, Germany, Italy, Iran, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States.
The researchers noted that patients from countries with high COVID-19 mortality rates, such as Italy, Spain and the UK, had lower levels of vitamin D compared to patients in countries that were not as severely affected.
More on Vitamin D being negatively correlated with mortality. (https://newsinfopark.com/health/2020-05-08/article/vitamin-d-appears-to-play-role-in-covid-19-mortality-rates-32878/nip-web-desk-team/)QuoteAfter studying global data from the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, researchers have discovered a strong correlation between severe vitamin D deficiency and mortality rates.
Led by Northwestern University, the research team conducted a statistical analysis of data from hospitals and clinics across China, France, Germany, Italy, Iran, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States.
The researchers noted that patients from countries with high COVID-19 mortality rates, such as Italy, Spain and the UK, had lower levels of vitamin D compared to patients in countries that were not as severely affected.
I was looking at mortality rates in the US and noticed that the black population has twice the mortality of the white population. There are probably many factors, but vitamin D may be part of it. Vitamin D levels are known to be lower (on average) in African Americans.
>luckily i've been taking 2000 IUs most days
D3, taken with a fat containing meal?
Be worth a test, lots of home testing kits about.
reduced the risk of acute respiratory tract infection among all participants.
As I explained to a young colonial in a bank one time, we had dates before you had a country, same goes for words ;)
COVID-19 causes at least 10 times more deaths than typical seasonal influenza, according to the authors of an analysis published Thursday by JAMA Internal Medicine.
Using statistics from Worldometer.info to make their case, the researchers noted that the disease caused by the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, caused 15,455 deaths across the United States during the week ending April 21 and 14,478 during a week earlier.
Conversely, during a typical week during the winter season, the flu causes 350 to 1,600 Americans' deaths, based on a review of figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that cover 2015 to 2018.
The stark differences in the impact of the two viruses, however, should alert Americans to the seriousness of COVID-19 and help shape public health response to the ongoing pandemic, experts said.
https://www.endcoronavirus.org/states
The California stay-at-home order still involves more face-to-face contact with other people than the lockdowns in places that successfully controlled the virus. California hasn’t adopted centralized isolation, for instance, which would let sick people avoid infecting family members, and has a large homeless population exempted from the stay-home orders.
A CDC estimate suggests about 50 percent of Californians were still leaving their homes regularly after the stay-home order. In Italy, by contrast, mobility fell 85 percent under their lockdown.
I am seeing quarantine fatigue everywhere.
True, I wonder what the graph would show without a worldwide lockdown..
>> if people worried about heart disease and diabetes the way people worried* about Covid
One major difference: heart disease, diabetes etc. are serious but not infectious so your disease doesn't put others at risk.
There is so much death promoting propaganda out there like that.
My daughter lives in Nashville & wore her mask to buy groceries. Guy yells at her: ‘Liberal p###y!’ Back story: she nearly died of H1N1. She was in the ICU for a week, on a ventilator for 3 days. She CANNOT get covid. The ignorance & hatred is so painful. She’s trying to survive.https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/499599-johnny-cashs-daughter-slams-ignorance-hatred-over-wearing-masks
— rosanne cash (@rosannecash) May 26, 2020
How Fear, Groupthink Drove Unnecessary Global Lockdowns
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/21/how_fear_groupthink_drove_unnecessary_global_lockdowns_143253.html
I wonder what gm66's friend would think of this - it's an attack on Neil Ferguson among other things.
But it's more general than that. The central thesis is that lockdown was unnecessary, based on the Swedish and Italian experience, and that politicians won't admit it because it would make them look bad.
It could just be testing and reporting artifacts. I did think maybe it was because more of the population is rural in Sweden and therefore interacting with fewer people, but in fact that is quite the opposite. Only 12.57% of Swedes live in rural areas, while 19.5% of French do [3,4].
Belgian officials say they are counting in a way that no other country in the world is currently doing: counting deaths in hospitals and care homes, but including deaths in care homes that are suspected, not confirmed, as Covid-19 cases.https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52491210
How Fear, Groupthink Drove Unnecessary Global Lockdowns
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/21/how_fear_groupthink_drove_unnecessary_global_lockdowns_143253.html
I wonder what gm66's friend would think of this - it's an attack on Neil Ferguson among other things.
But it's more general than that. The central thesis is that lockdown was unnecessary, based on the Swedish and Italian experience, and that politicians won't admit it because it would make them look bad.
Olofsdotter told NPR last month that the country's capital could reach herd immunity by the end of this month. Herd immunity occurs when enough people of a population are immune to an infectious disease, either because they've been infected and recovered or they've been vaccinated against it. Some researchers have put the threshold for coronavirus herd immunity at 60%.https://www.npr.org/2020/05/25/861923548/stockholm-wont-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-sweden-s-chief-epidemiologist-says
Unfortunately, Stockholm will not reach this milestone in May.
"No that will not happen," Tegnell said Monday in an email to NPR. "Current investigations show different numbers, but [Stockholm's immunity rate] is likely lower [than 30%]. As you might be aware, there is a problem with measuring immunity for this virus."
Sweden's Public Health Agency last week released the initial findings of an ongoing antibodies study that showed that 7.3% of people in Stockholm had developed antibodies against COVID-19 by late April. Tegnell later described the study's figure as a "bit lower than we'd thought," adding that the findings represented a
snapshot of the situation some weeks ago and he believed that by now "a little more than 20%" of Stockholm's population should have contracted the virus.
But that's merely an attack ad hominem. I'm more curious what he thinks of the basic idea - why isn't Sweden experiencing disaster if Covid is as bad as we feared? What is the explanation that they don't have 10X our death rate?
I think the real way to look at this is to count up all deaths and see what statistical anomalies emerge. Most European and North American countries get pretty accurate counts of annual deaths. You can't fudge that much. But you can decide not to test anyone who is already dead, for example.
I poked around and found this, which does in fact just look at total reported deaths, regardless of cause:
"Sweden’s outbreak has been far deadlier than those of its neighbors, but it’s still better off than many countries that enforced strict lockdowns."
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-deaths.html
Finland and Norway saw no increase in deaths, but Sweden has a 27% increase.
Also, if you look at mobility numbers, Swedes voluntarily did a lot of self-isolation. I don't think you could count on Americans or Italians to do that (that data show you can't, in fact)
The bottom line in all this: Chances are, wherever you are in the US, things are probably going to get worse.
Other supplies are ok, except Lysol.
Rural America is more vulnerable to COVID-19 than cities are, and it's starting to show
https://theconversation.com/rural-america-is-more-vulnerable-to-covid-19-than-cities-are-and-its-starting-to-show-140532
Very scary. Prisons must be a bloody nightmare.
A new study from China showed that antibodies faded quickly in both asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 patients during convalescence, raising questions about whether the illness leads to any lasting immunity to the virus afterward.
The study, which focused on 37 asymptomatic and 37 symptomatic patients, showed that more than 90% of both groups showed steep declines in levels of SARS-COV-2–specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies within 2 to 3 months after onset of infection, according to a report published yesterday in Nature Medicine. Further, 40% of the asymptomatic group tested negative for IgG antibodies 8 weeks after they were released from isolation.
Dr., I'm really happy to read that she came out negative. How is she doing now? Did anybody else in the family get sick? Just FYI, Abbott's rapid test has been shown to have up to 15% false negative (https://www.mddionline.com/covid-19/abbott-defends-accuracy-its-rapid-covid-19-test).
She is just fine now. No more fever and nobody else has been sick fortunately.good news!
>masks
I notice N95 mask supplies are not making it down to the public. We've left the problem of masks in the US to the private sector to sort out and it isn't happening. We need a reliable, domestic, mask manufacturing capacity for both medical people but also the public. This includes the components used to make N95's.
Wearing masks is ‘all we have’ to try to reduce the spread of coronavirus, former FDA commissioner says
Estimates of exact prevalence vary, but it seems that roughly 50% of patients diagnosed with Sars-CoV-2 – the virus responsible for causing the illness Covid-19 – have experienced neurological problems.
The measures that need to be taken to mitigate airborne transmission include:
Provide sufficient and effective ventilation (supply clean outdoor air, minimize recirculating air) particularly in public buildings, workplace environments, schools, hospitals, and aged care homes.
Supplement general ventilation with airborne infection controls such as local exhaust, high efficiency air filtration, and germicidal ultraviolet lights.
Avoid overcrowding, particularly in public transport and public buildings.
"These are practical and can be easily implemented and many are not costly. For example, simple steps such as opening both doors and windows can dramatically increase air flow rates in many buildings. Numerous health authorities currently focus on hand-washing, maintaining social distancing, and droplet precautions. Hand-washing and social distancing are appropriate, but it is view, insufficient to provide protection from virus-carrying respiratory microdroplets released into the air by infected people."
Now, more than 300 studies from around the world have found a prevalence of neurological abnormalities in Covid-19 patients, including mild symptoms like headaches, loss of smell (anosmia) and tingling sensations (arcoparasthesia), up to more severe outcomes such as aphasia (inability to speak), strokes and seizures. This is in addition to recent findings that the virus, which has been largely considered to be a respiratory disease, can also wreak havoc on the kidneys, liver, heart, and just about every organ system in the body.
corvid-19
Ravens? ;-)hah ha... spelling is fun :)
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2944635/
One of the biggest questions we still have about covid-19 is how much of a viral load is needed to cause infection. The answer changes if we think it is aerosols that we need to worry about. Smaller particles won’t carry as large a viral load as bigger ones, but because they can linger in the air for much longer, it may not matter—they’ll build up in larger concentrations and get distributed more widely the longer an infected person is around to expel aerosolized virus.
The more people you have coming in and out of an indoor space, the more likely it is that someone who is infected will show up. The longer those infected individuals spend in that space, the higher the concentration of virus in the air over time. This is particularly bad news for spaces where people congregate for hours on end, like restaurants, bars, offices, classrooms, and churches.
Airborne transmission doesn’t necessarily mean these places must stay closed (although that would be ideal). But wiping down surfaces with disinfectant, and having everyone wear masks, won’t be enough. To safely reopen, these spots will not just need to reduce the number of people allowed inside at any given moment; they will also need to reduce the amount of time those people spend there. Increasing social distancing beyond six feet would also help keep people safer.
Ventilation needs to be a higher priority too. This is going to be a big problem for older buildings that usually have worse ventilation systems, and areas with a lot of those might need to remain closed for much longer. The impact of asymptomatic spread (transmission by people who don’t feel ill) and superspreaders only compounds the problem even further. But research conducted by the US Department of Homeland Security has shown that in the presence of UV light, aerosolized particles of the size the Tulane researchers studied would disappear in less than a minute. A number of businesses have begun deploying UV-armed robots to disinfect hospital rooms, shopping malls, stores, public transit stations, and more.
For many places, considerable delays in economic reopening might ultimately be the price of getting the virus under control. Otherwise the kind of thing that happened when a single open bar in Michigan led to an outbreak of more than 170 new cases could become commonplace.
For Brosseau, the best strategy is simply to behave as we did in the early days of lockdown—stay home, and avoid coming into contact with anyone you don’t live with. And if you have to leave home, she says, “all I can say is spend as little time as possible in an enclosed space, in an area that’s well ventilated, with as few people as possible.”
A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in the COVID-19 death rate.
The use of cotton masks is associated
with a 54% lower relative odds of infection in comparison
to the no mask groups (RR=0.46; 95% CI: 0.22-0.97; N=746)
with a coefficient heterogeneity I2 of 66.6% (Q-test P=0.05).
For paper masks, the relative odds of infection were 39%
lower than in the no mask group (RR=0.61; 95% CI: 0.41-
0.90; N=166; I2=0.0%). On average, we can conclude that
cotton masks exhibit a greater protective potential than
paper masks. The results on paper masks should be
interpreted with caution since there are only two estimates
that emanate from small samples
Soooo, WCGW?
C.D.C. Calls On Schools to Reopen, Downplaying Coronavirus Risks - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/health/cdc-schools-coronavirus.html
"In a study in which the authors tried to mimic actual conditions in which a surface might be contaminated by a patient, no viable SARS-CoV was detected on surfaces... In my opinion, the chance of transmission through inanimate surfaces is very small, and only in instances where an infected person coughs or sneezes on the surface, and someone else touches that surface soon after the cough or sneeze (within 1–2 h)."
Schaffner told me, “In the entire peer-reviewed COVID-19 literature, I’ve found maybe one truly plausible report, in Singapore, of fomite transmission. And even there, it is not a slam-dunk case.”
Conclusion
An inadequate supply of vitamin D has a variety of skeletal and non-skeletal effects. There is ample evidence that various non-communicable diseases (hypertension, diabetes, CVD, metabolic syndrome) are associated with low vitamin D plasma levels. These comorbidities, together with the often concomitant vitamin D deficiency, increase the risk of severe COVID-19 events. Much more attention should be paid to the importance of vitamin D status for the development and course of the disease. Particularly in the methods used to control the pandemic (lockdown), the skin's natural vitamin D synthesis is reduced when people have few opportunities to be exposed to the sun. The short half-lives of the vitamin therefore make an increasing vitamin D deficiency more likely. Specific dietary advice, moderate supplementation or fortified foods can help prevent this deficiency. In the event of hospitalisation, the status should be urgently reviewed and, if possible, improved.
In the meantime, 8 studies have started to test the effect of supplementing vitamin D in different dosages (up to 200,000 IU) on the course of the COVID-19 disease. The aim is to clarify whether supplementation with vitamin D in different dosages has an influence on the course of the disease or, in particular, on the immune response, or whether it can prevent the development of ARDS or thromboses.
Most of these deaths, he said, would be caused not by the disease itself, but by the further strain on health-care systems and economies that were already struggling. He also lamented the politicisation of the response to the virus in America, and the spread of conspiracy theories—some implicating him—both of which have slowed efforts to contain the disease’s spread. But he offered reasons for hope in the medium term, predicting that by the end of 2021 a reasonably effective vaccine would be in mass production, and a large enough share of the world’s population would be immunised to halt the pandemic in its tracks.
A New York Times survey of more than 1,500 American colleges and universities — including every four-year public institution, every private college that competes in N.C.A.A. sports and others that identified cases — has revealed at least 26,000 cases and 64 deaths since the pandemic began.
Obesity increases the risk of death from Covid-19 by nearly 50% and may make vaccines against the disease less effective, according to a comprehensive study using global data.
Barnett, the MIT professor, expanded his analysis of airline empty middle seats by formulating a statistical study on traveling by car, exclusively for Traveler. “Assuming that the driver and passengers do not have COVID-19, the [highest] mortality risk of a 1,000 mile trip would arise from auto accidents," he says. "Assuming that those who would fly are relatively safe drivers, an estimate of the risk tied to U.S. auto deaths per billion miles driven in 2018 would be about one in three million. That is lower than the COVID-related death risk associated with a 1,000 mile flight, which I estimate as 1 death per 600,000 passengers if the plane is 2/3 full. The huge safety advantage of flying 1,000 miles nonstop rather than driving, pre-COVID, has disappeared as of August 2020.”
Vitamin D deficiency increases a person's risk for catching COVID-19 by 77% compared to those with sufficient levels of the nutrient, a study published Thursday by JAMA Network Open found.
As many as one in four of the nearly 500 participants in the study were found to have less-than-optimal levels of vitamin D, the data showed.
Among those found to be lacking the key nutrient, 22% contracted COVID-19, the data showed.
Of the 60% of study subjects with adequate vitamin D levels, just 12% were infected, according to the researchers.
"There is prior evidence from multiple sources that vitamin D can enhance both innate and adaptive immunity," Dr. David O. Meltzer, a professor of medicine at the University of Chicago, told UPI.
Innate immunity refers to the body's natural immune system response. Adaptive immunity describes how the immune system adjusts to a new pathogen -- like a virus -- that is able to evade its natural response.
"Vitamin D also ... may prevent the excess inflammation that is part of the challenge in managing severe COVID-19," Meltzer said.
CDC report: Bars/dining out increases risk of contracting coronavirus more than other activities
Hint: US has no plan and no clue.
Mr. Trump publicly slapped down Dr. Robert R. Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as the president promised that a vaccine could be available in weeks and go “immediately” to the general public while diminishing the usefulness of masks despite evidence to the contrary... Mr. Trump lashed out just hours after Dr. Redfield told a Senate committee that a vaccine would not be widely available until the middle of next year and that masks were so vital in fighting the disease caused by the coronavirus, Covid-19, that they may even more important than a vaccine.
Dogs are also able to identify Covid-19 from a much smaller molecular sample than PCR tests, Helsinki airport said, needing only 10-100 molecules to detect the presence of the virus compared with the 18m needed by laboratory equipment.
World Health Organization estimates that 10% of the world’s population has been infected by the coronavirus
Dr. Keith Paulson with the UW-Madison Veterinary School Diagnostic Laboratory told CNN affiliate WISN that he noted "significant mortality in the mink" and that three workers there had recovered from the virus after displaying "mild to moderate clinical signs."
...
Mink, which are closely related to weasels, otter and ferrets, appear to suffer similar symptoms to humans. Difficulty breathing and crusting around the eyes are usually seen, but the virus progresses rapidly, and most infected mink are dead by the next day, according to Taylor.
It's unclear what makes mink such a susceptible species, while others appear to be unaffected.
What is the microCOVID project?
This is a project to quantitatively estimate the COVID risk to you from your ordinary daily activities. We trawled the scientific literature for data about the likelihood of getting COVID from different situations, and combined the data into a model that people can use. We estimate COVID risk in units of microCOVIDs, where 1 microCOVID = a one-in-a-million chance of getting COVID.
Conclusionsand
People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.
Individuals with age <65 account for 4.5–11.2% of all COVID-19 deaths in European countries and Canada, 8.3–22.7% in the US locations, and were the majority in India and Mexico.
pro/con controversy over the Great Barrington DeclarationNo thx, got it now.
natural infections may not induce lifelong immunity,"
Death rate is too high
I'd have more respect for the GBD if they had mentioned masks.
If you are asking, "How did I learn about the Great Barrington Declaration?"That was the question. In the UK it has been suppressed largely, so we are only just hearing about it.
If mask-wearing prohibited anyone from being faithful to Christ, MacArthur’s pastors and elders might have a valid point — but masks, along with other reasonable precautions to stop this virus, are actually all about being faithful to Christ’s commands.
When Jesus, the “author and finisher of our faith” (Hebrews 12:2 KJV), was asked by a religious legal expert what was the greatest of all God’s commandments, Jesus answered, “Love the Lord your God with all your heart, soul, and mind. This is the first and most important commandment. The second most important commandment is like this one. And it is, ‘Love others as much as you love yourself.’ All the Law of Moses and the Books of the Prophets are based on these two commandments” (Matthew 22:37-40 CEV).
I’ve never had a pre-existing condition. I was born and raised in Phoenix, where I ran my first marathon at 16 years old. I won my first 50-miler and signed up for my first 100-miler soon after. I’ve run 23 marathons in my life. I’m 32 years old, I’m healthy. In early April, I nearly lost my life to COVID-19.
live real time FB feed for the public because space is limited
Confidence in masks grew in June with news about two hair stylists in Missouri who tested positive for COVID-191. Both wore a double-layered cotton face covering or surgical mask while working. And although they passed on the infection to members of their households, their clients seem to have been spared (more than half reportedly declined free tests). Other hints of effectiveness emerged from mass gatherings. At Black Lives Matter protests in US cities, most attendees wore masks. The events did not seem to trigger spikes in infections2, yet the virus ran rampant in late June at a Georgia summer camp, where children who attended were not required to wear face coverings3.
In a review9 of observational studies, an international research team estimates that surgical and comparable cloth masks are 67% effective in protecting the wearer.
Since January, when I began covering the pandemic, I have been a consistently gloomy Cassandra, reporting on the catastrophe that experts saw coming: that the virus would go pandemic, that Americans were likely to die in large numbers, the national lockdown would last well beyond Easter and even past summer. No miracle cure was on the horizon; the record for developing a vaccine was four years.
Events have moved faster than I thought possible. I have become cautiously optimistic. Experts are saying, with genuine confidence, that the pandemic in the United States will be over far sooner than they expected, possibly by the middle of next year.
That is still some time off. Experts warn that this autumn and winter may be grim; indoor dining, in-classroom schooling, contact sports, jet travel and family holiday dinners may all drive up infections, hospitalizations and deaths. Cases are rising in most states, and some hospitals already face being overwhelmed.
Even if the cavalry is in sight, it is not here yet. To prevent deaths reaching 400,000, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci has warned, “We all need to hunker down.”
Antibodies are a key part of our immune defences and stop the virus from getting inside the body's cells.
The Imperial College London team found the number of people testing positive for antibodies has fallen by 26% between June and September.
They say immunity appears to be fading and there is a risk of catching the virus multiple times.
There is widespread expectation that the first clinical trials will release their results this year. ...... Most experts think the vaccine will not be widely available until the middle of 2021.
The White House science office listed "ending the COVID-19 pandemic" as the top accomplishment of President Trump's first term, even as the U.S. has set records for new daily infections and numerous hospitals across the country are stretched to their breaking points.
“The coronavirus is not only a respiratory illness. Research shows it is causing a spike in stroke due to unusual clotting of blood in asymptomatic healthy people,” says Galvinhttps://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/minimising-your-risk-of-stroke-during-pandemic-is-crucial-1.4386137
Mutated coronavirus from mink is a threat to humans
The situation regarding corona infection among mink has now developed to a critical stage in North Jutland.
According to B.T.'s information, a mutated coronavirus migrated from mink to humans and has since spread strongly among the citizens of Vensyssel in North Jutland.
On Tuesday, the government received a note from the Statens Serum Institut, which has exposed the mutated coronavirus to antibodies. The result, according to SSI, was deeply troubling because the mutated coronavirus did not respond well to the antibodies.
Thus, there is a risk that a possible vaccine against covid-19 will not have the desired effect if the mutated virus from mink spreads further among humans.
That is why Mette Frederiksen has convened a press conference on Wednesday at 4 pm, where she herself will participate virtually.
B.T. learns that there are new restrictions for humans on the way in northern Jutland to stop the spread of the coronavirus from mink.
The other party leaders were summoned to a briefing on Wednesday afternoon.
The AI model correctly identified 98.5% of people with COVID-19, and correctly ruled out COVID-19 in 94.2% of people without the disease. For asymptomatic people, the model correctly identifed 100% of people with COVID-19, and correctly ruled out COVID-19 in 83.2% of people without the disease.
And they aren't the only team working on detecting COVID-19 through sound. Similar projects are underway in Cambridge University, Carnegie Mellon University and the U.K. start-up Novoic, according to BBC.
"Pandemics could be a thing of the past if pre-screening tools are always-on in the background and constantly improved," the authors wrote in the paper. Those always-listening tools could be smart speakers or smart phones, they wrote.
The developers - Pfizer and BioNTech - described it as a "great day for science and humanity".
Their vaccine has been tested on 43,500 people in six countries and no safety concerns have been raised.
The companies plan to apply for emergency approval to use the vaccine by the end of the month.
There are still huge challenges ahead, but the announcement has been warmly welcomed with scientists describing themselves smiling "ear to ear" and some suggesting life could be back to normal by spring.
"I am probably the first guy to say that, but I will say that with some confidence," said Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University.
Stay outta restaurants, bars, gyms, hotels....
Pubs, restaurants and bars will be subject to stricter Covid-19 restrictions in the run up to Christmas, the first minister has said.
The new restrictions, which have not yet been finalised, will come into force from Friday, 4 December.
They may be based on the system in some parts of Scotland where no alcohol can be served.
“We don't have the convenience of jumping into a Walgreens, CVS or Walmart and getting our flu shot. Our nearest Walgreens and Walmart are 30 miles away,” said Dr. Jennifer Bacani McKenney, a family physician and the Wilson County Health Officer in Fredonia, Kansas, explaining some of the barriers in rural areas that exist in addition to vaccine hesitancy and distrust.
Just heard from friends who are waiters. Their restaurant has 300 reservations for Thanksgiving dinner. They expect to serve at least 400.
And in what may be the COVID wedding to end all COVID weddings, 23 nursing-home residents died after staff attended a 300-person wedding in Washington state.
IN THE FINAL days of a tight mayoral race in November in São Gonçalo, an unglamorous city across the bay from Rio de Janeiro, one of the candidates, a retired police officer known as Capitão Nelson, made his way down a street lined with supporters. The mood was euphoric. A maskless man with a bottle of sanitiser on a string around his neck stomped his feet to funk music and squirted the gel into the air “to kill the germs” of the rival party. Humberto Perez, a handyman, likes the captain “because he cares about poor people, just like the president”, Jair Bolsonaro. After work dried up in March a monthly payment from the federal government kept him from going hungry. “And the campaign gave me a free lunch,” he said, with a toothy grin.
The fact that some Brazilians are celebrating during a pandemic that has killed 180,000 of their fellow citizens is among covid-19’s many paradoxes. So is the reason for their cheer: that a right-wing, pro-market government has rolled out the biggest welfare programme in Brazil’s history. Before the pandemic, extreme poverty was on the rise. Nearly 1m families were on the waiting list for Bolsa Família, a conditional cash-transfer programme that the government had ....
The FioCruz researcher who did the genetic sequencing of the infection of the case in Natal, Paola Resende, said it looked like the woman did not generate enough antibodies to avoid getting infected again more than 90 days later.
Resende confirmed that the woman was infected by a separate strain of coronavirus the second time.
The new report, of a largely empty flight in the fall, details what can happen even when airlines and passengers are aware and more cautious about the risks. ... five of the seven passengers who later tested positive had taken a test, and received a negative result, in the days before boarding.
To put it simply: Worry less about whether the ideal population is getting vaccinated and more about actually vaccinating people.https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2021/1/15/22229300/covid-19-vaccines-coronavirus-rollout-us-america
“A massive vaccination campaign won’t work with our current fussy and intricate criteria for who gets a shot and when,” Peter Hotez, a vaccine expert at Baylor College of Medicine, wrote. “We learned in 2020 that our health system simply cannot do complicated things.”
The first polio vaccine was a shot and the line took forever. The repeat vaccine (a couple of years later) was by eating a sugar cube, so the process was a whole lot quicker.
the bold is mine
Friday 15 January 2021 4:06 pm
Pfizer will temporarily reduce deliveries of its Covid vaccine to the UK and across Europe from next week, according to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH).
The move will mean countries will receive fewer vaccines than expected while the pharmaceutical giant upgrades its production capacity.
Pfizer told Norway this morning it would receive 18 per cent fewer doses than expected next week, according to Geir Bukholm, director of infection control at NIPH.
“This temporary reduction will affect all European countries,” he said. “It is as yet not precisely clear how long time it will take before Pfizer is up to maximum production capacity again.”
It comes as Pfizer upgrades its production capacity to meet international demand for its coronavirus vaccine. It will soon be able to produce 2bn vaccine doses per year — up from 1.3bn currently.
here will be enough vaccine for everyone. But right now, we must work together as one global family to prioritize those most at risk of severe diseases and death, in all countries.
For the past 9 months, the ACT Accelerator and the COVAX vaccines pillar have been laying the groundwork for the equitable distribution and deployment of vaccines.
We’ve overcome scientific barriers, legal barriers, logistical barriers and regulatory barriers.
We have secured 2 billion doses from five producers, with options on more than 1 billion more doses, and we aim to start deliveries in February.
I use this opportunity to thank Gavi and CEPI.
COVAX is ready to deliver what it was created for.
But in recent weeks I have heard from several Member States who have questioned whether COVAX will get the vaccines it needs, and whether high-income countries will keep the promises they have made.
As the first vaccines begin to be deployed, the promise of equitable access is at serious risk.
More than 39 million doses of vaccine have now been administered in at least 49 higher-income countries. Just 25 doses have been given in one lowest-income country. Not 25 million; not 25 thousand; just 25.
I need to be blunt: the world is on the brink of a catastrophic moral failure – and the price of this failure will be paid with lives and livelihoods in the world’s poorest countries.
we are still looking at 2022 most likely.
>educator
Let us know what happens.
My aunt who had covid died yesterday.
She had been declared as recovered, so I don't know if she'll be counted as a covid death or something else.
It surely wouldn't have helped ...
:-(
For example, in a study of 7,324 Chinese case reports, only two — part of the same transmission event — could be linked to outdoor settings. A database of more than 20,000 cases (including the 7,324 Chinese cases) found 461 that were associated with transmission in completely outdoor environments — predominantly crowded events like markets and rallies.https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-summer-of-covid-19-taught-scientists-about-indoor-vs-outdoor-transmission/
In an analysis of 25,000 cases, which has not yet been independently reviewed, six percent of cases were linked to environments with an outdoor element, such as sporting events or concerts.
These were enclosed areas where social distancing was not observed, or where people stayed for a while, moving around and talking loudly or singing.
"There were virtually no cases that we could identify that took place in sort of everyday life outdoors," study author Mike Weed, a professor and researcher at Canterbury Christ Church University, told AFP.
The situations he found where clusters were associated with outdoor transmission tended to be times when people were, as Weed put it, “invited or required to break natural social distance.” These event-specific behaviors might help explain why Weed found clusters associated with farmers’ markets, where people crowd around the stalls, but not with people just hanging out in the park.
When the source was unmasked and the receiver was fitted with the double mask or the knotted and tucked medical procedure mask, the receiver’s cumulative exposure was reduced by 83.0% (SD = 0.15) and 64.5% (SD = 0.03), respectively.https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7007e1.htm?s_cid=mm7007e1_w
Not 65+ in some countriesSomeone suggested Marcon Should retract that today on the BBC