Author Topic: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves  (Read 26770 times)

gm66

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #615 on: March 26, 2020, 04:01:40 PM »
Journospeak - ".. doubling much faster."
Civilisation is a race between disaster and education ...

Brad

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #616 on: March 26, 2020, 04:50:51 PM »
Some good news:

James Dyson designed a new ventilator in 10 days. He's making 15,000 for the pandemic fight

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/tech/dyson-ventilators-coronavirus/index.html

Rupert

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #617 on: March 26, 2020, 05:44:30 PM »
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Quote
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-
19 mortality and healthcare demand
Summary
The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the
most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the
results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries
in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of
public health measures so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) aimed at reducing
contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented
here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain
specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely
to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on
transmission.
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily
stopping epidemic spread reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of
severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing
case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major
challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases,
home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the
elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and
deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of
thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many
times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.
We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social
distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family
members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be
recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased
absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package
or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission will need to be maintained until a
vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) given that we predict that transmission
will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing
triggered by trends in disease surveillance may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in
relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers
rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in
the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and
economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced


An interesting but depressing read.  Whatever scenario you prefer its clear they agree this epidemic is going to last until at least Sept and could easily extend into 2021 as I think we all believe here.
... Make sure you live before you die.

Rupert

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #618 on: March 26, 2020, 06:47:33 PM »
Milestone... over half a million confirmed cases worldwide  510,108.
... Make sure you live before you die.

littleman

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #619 on: March 26, 2020, 07:37:19 PM »
Re Rupert quote above:

I think the steps most of us are taking now is really just a better mitigation -- we are flattening the curve, not really stopping the virus.  It is still worth doing and will save many lives.

nffc

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #620 on: March 26, 2020, 08:25:24 PM »
https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1243168931503882241

Even I found this Police drone footage shocking. Almost like they wanted to add TERMINATE to the graphics.

littleman

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #621 on: March 26, 2020, 08:32:25 PM »
From the twitter thread:
"Hi. Please explain (in terms of epidemiology) exactly what harm these people are doing, taking quiet exercise away from crowds, in small numbers? And if they're doing no harm, leave them alone?"

I was wondering the same thing.  They are not interacting with each other.

littleman

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #622 on: March 26, 2020, 09:14:29 PM »

nffc

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #623 on: March 26, 2020, 09:35:21 PM »

Just happened.

Congrats. At this rate will be over a million in 2 weeks.

 Population size going to hold the UK back from the ultimate crown, still in with a chance per head of population. Cyrus in contention, Norway the run away leaders.

Travoli

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #624 on: March 27, 2020, 04:12:25 AM »
From Twitter (unverified):

littleman

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Rupert

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #626 on: March 27, 2020, 08:51:18 AM »
Quote
https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1243168931503882241

Even I found this Police drone footage shocking. Almost like they wanted to add TERMINATE to the graphics.

That is an hours drive away from me, and a spot I walk and cycle.  It is 20 mins from Sheffield, with a few million people.

Its OK while there are only a few doing it, but as we saw at the weekend, Snowdon had more visitors than ever before.  I have been up Snowdon on a busy day,  its a single track walk, and so you are rubbing shoulders all the way up and all the way down. This was last may, and it was busier last weekend:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-47997270

So I think the point is that no-one or everyone should be allowed to do it. There was a problem at Cannock Chase, where people are driving to cycle round a single track. Its popular.  Some mates were complaining about the police asking people not to go.

I am lucky, we walk from the door across fields.  I would hate to be in the city right now. If this goes on for a year, I am sure that we need some organised access to the countryside... or maybe the lock down will be lifted when it starts to rain again :)
... Make sure you live before you die.

rcjordan

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #627 on: March 27, 2020, 12:31:30 PM »
US: Doctors At Hospitals Say COVID-19 Death Numbers Are Under-reported.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals

rcjordan

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #628 on: March 27, 2020, 01:49:55 PM »

Brad

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #629 on: March 27, 2020, 02:02:37 PM »
> under-reported

Our problem remains the same: lack of test kits and the ability to process them in a timely manner.  It's been weeks now and I keep hearing about how hundreds of thousands of new test kits are going to be shipped out by the private sector, Real Soon Now, but the reports from the front line show only a very slow increase in testing.

We can't get a handle on what we're facing until we can measure it.

It's sort of the opposite of our stupid "body counts" during the Vietnam War - every dismembered body part found (ie like a hand or a finger) counted as "a body".  It gave a completely inflated and distorted report on enemy casualties, which led to more bad decisions on our part.  This is the same only in reverse.