Author Topic: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves  (Read 253815 times)

rcjordan

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1695 on: January 04, 2022, 04:35:01 PM »
>perversely, I'm encouraged by that number

Several headlines yesterday saying the same.


Israel Omicron spike could bring herd immunity but with risks - health boss - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-59853772

ergophobe

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1696 on: January 04, 2022, 05:04:02 PM »
>>herd immunity

Isn't this just the wrong term? Haven't we discovered that infection and vaccines do not confer "immunity" or do epidemiologists mean something different from that term than I do. To me, being immune means I don't get the disease. I don't see that happening. Everyone I know who got Omicron was vaccinated and in most cases boosted.

And BTW, it's the overall number that I meant was encouraging, not the current case rate. Still, since Omicron confers protection from Delta... I'd kind of like to just get it NOW. I'm only about 6 weeks out from my booster, so it seems like I'd be very likely to end up with a mild case of Omicron and then be super boosted.

Maybe we'll all just get Covid in progressively milder forms for the rest of our lives and for some people it will be a really unlucky spin of the wheel.

ergophobe

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1697 on: January 04, 2022, 07:20:33 PM »
The weekly tally by The Economist to estimate global deaths
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

Official: 5.4m
Estimated: 18.8m (11.8m to 21.9m with 95% confidence).

The interesting part is in the breakdown by country. In much of Western Europe, they estimate deaths are over-estimated (France, +20%, Germany, +3%) while the US is underestimating (-70%) and some countries with less elaborate public health infrastructure and testing capability are off by thousands of percentage points.

Countries with low populations can be way off too - if they have a very low incidence of Covid and also happen to have, say, a random drop in heart attacks, they can have a negative number of excess deaths even though people did in fact die from Covid.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2022, 07:22:22 PM by ergophobe »

rcjordan

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1698 on: January 04, 2022, 07:35:41 PM »
US: Insurance executive says death rates among working-age people up 40 percent
https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/insurance-death-rates-working-age-people-up-40-percent

ergophobe

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1699 on: January 04, 2022, 09:10:44 PM »
Wow. That's actually shocking.

Quote
Because of this, insurance companies are beginning to add premium increases on employers in counties with low vaccination rates to cover the benefit payouts.

The insurance industry is sort of a regulator or last resort. That's what's happening with fire too.

>>disability claims

That had not even crossed my mind. I wonder how that relates to the study that showed that 90% of those who have left the workforce are 55+. In other words I wonder what the Venn diagram from insurance claims by age and those over 55+ who have left the workforce. I assumed people were just deciding that could make it until Social Security and Medicare kicked in and were just going for it (or taking SS earlier than planned).

And suddenly I understand another aspect of annuities. If a company has life insurance policies and annuities, when death rates go up, their life insurance payouts go up, but so too does the amount of capital that is now theirs forever as annuity recipients die.

rcjordan

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1700 on: January 06, 2022, 04:31:26 AM »
How many people get 'long COVID?' More than half, researchers find. | Penn State University
https://www.psu.edu/news/research/story/how-many-people-get-long-covid-more-half-researchers-find/

rcjordan

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1701 on: January 07, 2022, 07:51:17 PM »
US: FDA shortens the wait time between Moderna vaccine and booster to 5 months
https://www.kuow.org/stories/fda-shortens-the-wait-time-between-moderna-vaccine-and-booster-to-5-months


ergophobe

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1703 on: January 12, 2022, 03:45:30 AM »
>> now warning

I have to say I've gone through a lot of phases since March 2020. The first lockdown period I said (quietly because I knew a lot of people were suffering), "This is the retirement I've always dreamed of." No emails. Lots of time outdoors. But lately, I've been feeling worn down by it all.

That said, I don't think this is really that new is it? Haven't we always known that tests are perfect and there are false negatives early in the infection and false positives from residual RNA that gets picked up by the PCR test? Perhaps Omicron makes it worse because the incubation period is so short.

littleman

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1704 on: January 12, 2022, 06:07:04 PM »
>I have to say I've gone through a lot of phases since March 2020. The first lockdown period I said (quietly because I knew a lot of people were suffering), "This is the retirement I've always dreamed of." No emails. Lots of time outdoors. But lately, I've been feeling worn down by it all.

It has lasted much longer than anybody really expected.  Everytime we get hopeful of it winding down there's a new twist. 

Drastic

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1705 on: January 13, 2022, 12:04:25 AM »
Seems like this variant is cooking so hot it may actually flame out after running out of victims.

ergophobe

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1706 on: January 13, 2022, 12:38:33 AM »
>> much longer

Your comment made me think back a bit and I realize how short my memory is. I realized that when it started, people were telling me, "I have savings to hold out for three months" and I was thinking, "You should be thinking in term of two years." So in some way, it's not longer than I expected.

But I'm surprised at and did not expect the degree to which I feel sort of worn down the low-level back and forth in what is, for me, a relatively good time - I'm healthy, finances are sound, have not gone a day without food except by choice, toilet paper stores have been strong all along, nobody close to me has died or had a severe illness and so on. Objectively and thinking just of me and people close to me, this is one of the better times of my life. Much, much easier than the times that were personally difficult. And yet...
« Last Edit: January 13, 2022, 04:05:02 PM by ergophobe »

rcjordan

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ergophobe

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1708 on: January 13, 2022, 04:09:10 PM »
NYT newsletter today says that the cities that first started to shoot up with Omicron are now starting to peak. Boston has seen Covid levels in the sewage drop by 40% since January 1.
https://nyti.ms/3KkzdtR

DrCool

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Re: Corona Virus - Save Yourselves
« Reply #1709 on: January 13, 2022, 06:10:10 PM »
>Wait for it

I have a friend who is a nurse in the CICU at one of the hospitals and that ward is right next to the regular ICU. Said there is nobody in ICU right now because of COVID. There are COVID patients in the hospital but none of them are bad enough to need the ICU. So even though hospitalizations are up quite a bit with this surge it seems like it is only a 1 or 2 day stay, not a week on a ventilator in ICU.