The Core
Why We Are Here => Water Cooler => Topic started by: rcjordan on April 21, 2021, 01:02:33 PM
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https://www.vox.com/22392710/southwest-water-drought-arizona-nevada-california-colorado-river-lake-mead-climate-change
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A few years back I had the great pleasure of water skiing in the desert on this lake, with Mr MF Mackin at the helm.
Seeing the water lines stories above our head, back then, was really eye opening. When a couple of us were dropped off to have more power to ski, once the boat turned the corner, we were all alone. It was surreal, like being on the moon with an oxygen atmosphere.
Super clear water. You could ski near the bank and see straight down the water was so clear, easily 30 feet.
Great memories from that day
It's crazy how much water is gone from there.
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Things look bad for the SW US if this trend just continues. Watch for internal migration.
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>Watch for
I'm already seeing squabbles and lawsuits about large scale water rights issues trending up in my feeds.
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>>internal migration.
Lots of talk about this. One of my favorite podcasts had an episode on it (okay, it's a podcast "about the natural world and how we use it") but it is the focus of the current issue of Time as well, discussing Africa and the US.
Climate-driven migration is starting and is going to accelerate over the next decade.
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>water rights
Nestle told to stop spring water diversions in San Bernardino Forest
https://www.dailybreeze.com/2021/04/23/nestle-told-to-stop-spring-water-diversions-in-san-bernardino-forest/
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Drought-hit California orders Nestlé to stop pumping millions of gallons of water
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/apr/27/california-nestle-water-san-bernardino-forest-drought
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This is going to cost us.
Corn soars to 8-year high as dry global weather hits crops - while soybeans and wheat are also booming
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/corn-price-rise-dry-weather-crops-demand-rises-soybeans-wheat-cheese-2021-4-1030353075
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"The latest forecast shows Lake Mead, the biggest reservoir in the Colorado River, declining past a threshold that it hasn't gone below since it was built. "
Southwest States Brace For Water Cuts As Colorado River Reservoirs Run Low
https://kjzz.org/content/1678559/colorado-river-basin-states-brace-future-water-cuts-colorado-river-reservoirs-run
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Amid severe drought, Oregon farming region illegally diverts water from the Klamath River
https://thecounter.org/oregon-farms-water-klamath-river-drought-salmon/
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GROUNDWATER WELLS WORLDWIDE ARE AT RISK OF DRYING UP
https://www.futurity.org/groundwater-wells-water-irrigation-agriculture-2555052
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From here, y'all look screwed.
California’s second-largest reservoir is just 42% full heading into summer
https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2021/04/29/dramatic-photos-of-lake-oroville-depict-californias-worsening-drought/
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As I have said, to live in rural California is to experience persistent low-level stress about fire, wind and water. The latter takes many forms: drought, flood, blizzard. We don't worry about earthquakes much though.
In the two local drainages (Merced River and the Tuolumne River, which supplies most of SF's water), April 1 snowpack was just 64% and 63% of average, following on a low winter last year.
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Giant sequoia still smoldering from 2020 Calif. wildfire
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Tree-still-smoldering-from-2020-Sequoia-National-16153776.php
After a not-tragic 63% of normal snowpack on April 1, the May 1 snowpack in Yosemite is at 25% of normal in the Merced drainage. In other words, three quarters of our water is missing. In Sequoia it was 59% on April 1 and presumably following a similar trajectory.
The upshot is that we did not get enough moisture this winter to fully extinguish the fire still smoldering from last summer. The last time I recall this happening was after the 2013 Rim Fire which happened during the severe drought of 2011/12 to 2015/16
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Early signs show 2021 could be an especially catastrophic wildfire season in California
https://fortune.com/2021/04/13/california-fire-season-moisture-levels-fmc-wildfires-drought-san-jose-state
Wildfire researchers have a "grim" forecast for 2021's fire season, say it could be worse than 2020
https://www.salon.com/2021/04/14/wildfire-researchers-have-a-grim-forecast-for-2021s-fire-season-say-it-could-be-worse-than-2020/
This official report from the National Interagency Fire Center has charts and graphs of both fire risk and drought. The drought maps are dramatic
https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf
Nobody says it better than Bette Davis: fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy summer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vEEh0GF_C8
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>>From here, y'all look screwed.
>Early signs show 2021 could be an especially catastrophic wildfire season in California
Yup.
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Although, there was no particular reason to expect last year to be a big fire season, and yet it was. It's partly conditions and partly luck.
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>partly conditions and partly luck.
Do you know what percentage of last year's fires were attributed to UNnatural causes? (Power lines, arson, campfires, etc.)
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I don't. The first big wave was set off by a set of lightning strikes, but I know there were a couple arson fires, one of which was set to cover up a murder.
Still, "cause" and "attributed" are slippery words. Or, put another way, can you attribute WWI to the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand and if you do, what have you really learned?
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Study: Arizona wants to pipe "stormwater" from Mississippi River to Colorado River to save SW lawns, golf courses and other things.
https://mohavedailynews.com/news/131764/arizona-legislature-wants-feasibility-study-for-long-distance-pipeline-to-replenish-colorado-river-supply/
Does this mean the Colorado River will get Asian Carp as well?
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FTFY: Arizona wants somebody else to pay for
See last panel. I don't hear of Phoenix without thinking of it. (Note: It was 118f once when I vistited.)
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The idea that golf courses and green lawns are tolerated in one of the hottest, driest places on earth is not just arrogance, but folly.
I don't understand the obsession. There is not a single lawn in our neighborhood of 200 houses and I would venture to say that if someone planted one there would be rebellion in the streets (basing that assessment on the outrage when there was talk of selling up to 5,000 gallons per day to a brand-new $12 million educational campus up the road that is unable to open due to lack of water).
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New Drought Contingencies Triggered for Upper Colorado River States
https://www.planetizen.com/news/2021/05/113460-new-drought-contingencies-triggered-upper-colorado-river-states
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First-ever Colorado River water shortage is now almost certain, new projections show
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/27/weather/lake-mead-colorado-river-shortage/index.html
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From here, y'all look screwed.
Pretty much. The 100-hour fuel and 1000-hour fuel moisture levels have been at the lowest levels ever recorded and are expected to keep going lower.
- https://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/fuelsFireDanger_Hundred.php
- https://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/fuelsFireDanger_Thousand.php
They conducted a prescribed burn near here on Monday that was supposed to have three days of ignition. They had to call off about 70% of it because the first acres got so hot so fast.
It could be a very nasty summer in the Western US unless we get some good luck
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We had an extremely wet & stormy 1st quarter but May has been dry. 1/4 of NC is under drought conditions.
North Carolina Burning Ban Halts Memorial Day Fireworks
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/north-carolina/articles/2021-05-29/north-carolina-burning-ban-halts-memorial-day-fireworks
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Lake Oroville, CA, already at less than half capacity. Doom.
https://news.yahoo.com/california-already-throes-drought-summer-012718210.html
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>Lake Oroville
California's Sierra Nevada Mountains show what climate change can do as it worsens. The mountain snowpack, which provides 30% of the state's water supply annually, has vanished about two months ahead of schedule.
Water runoff from snow melt has been paltry, and major reservoirs like Lake Oroville are running even lower than they did during the record drought from 2012-2016.
Climate change is playing a key role in the drought, by boosting temperatures and increasing the loss of water to the atmosphere. Much of the snow went directly from frozen form back into the air, rather than melting into runoff.
Warming is also thought to be leading to increasing chances of dry fall seasons in the Golden State and shortened rainy seasons, according to Daniel Swain, a climate researcher at UCLA and the Nature Conservancy.
Good, bulleted article. Worth a scan.
https://www.axios.com/climate-southwest-drought-wildfires-e0e0132c-c3d8-4872-b623-280f30383155.html
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>screwed
a photo essay | California | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/30/california-drought-water-shortage-photo-essay
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Much of the snow went directly from frozen form back into the air, rather than melting into runoff.
More and more precip is falling as rain too. If the reservoirs are empty, that's fine, but if full, there's no storage.
I forget the exact numbers, but the historic (1970-2000) snowline was 5700 feet. Above that altitude >50% of precip falls as snow. I think a 2 degree rise pushes that to 7200. A 4 degree rise pushes it to 9000. Again, I forget the exact numbers, but it roughly means that you go from 20% of the park being below snowline to 20% being above. It might be more dire than that even. 15% sticks in my mind for one of those numbers
Don't quote me on that. I know most of those numbers are incorrect to some degree, but the general idea is that a relatively small increase in temperature makes for a large decrease in storage for the simple reason than mountains are pointy and get smaller as you go higher.
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As droughts threaten water supplies across the planet, some municipalities aim to utilize an untapped resource: sewage water.
Water recycling: "Toilet to tap" is future of clean drinking water
https://bigthink.com/technology-innovation/water-recycling
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I heard an interview with one guy who said that the frustrating thing is that they put the treated sewage back in the ground and then pull it out and treat it again because putting it in the ground just makes it dirty.
Unsurprisingly, surveys show that most people don't like the idea of drinking recycled water
Well... all water is recycled water. Or at least almost all water. I suppose there's some recombination of H and O that makes tiny amounts of new water.
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Las Vegas’s new strategy for tackling drought – banning ‘useless grass’
The ban targets what the Southern Nevada Water Authority calls “non-functional turf”. It applies to grass that virtually no one uses at office parks, street medians and the entrances to housing developments. It excludes single-family homes, parks and golf courses.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/07/las-vegas-drought-ban-useless-grass
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2021 is shaping up to be worse than 2015 and much, much worse than 2020.
This is bad (17 years of drought severity maps and other charts)...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/06/11/climate/california-western-drought-map.html
Already, twice as many acres have burned in California as during the same period last year. The state’s fire season has expanded in recent decades, starting earlier and ending later than it used to. “Not everything is predictable,” said Dr. Swain of U.C.L.A., referring to events like the dry lightning strikes that ignited many major fires in 2020. “But of the predictable elements — how dry is the soil? And will it get better in the next months? — those are as bad as it can be.”
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/06/16/earth-heat-imbalance-warming/
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WA: Officials say wild salmon runs on Tucannon River are in dire straits
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2021/jun/17/officials-say-wild-salmon-runs-on-tucannon-river-a/
CA: Drought-hit California scales up plan to truck salmon to ocean
https://phys.org/news/2021-06-drought-hit-california-scales-truck-salmon.html
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>WA
I don't have any data to back this up but based on what I am seeing they are really trying to keep as much water dammed up in the lakes and reservoirs as they can so there is irrigation water in the Columbia Basin this summer. One big lake up in Idaho we visited last weekend had the water level up 6-8 feet vs what it was about a month ago.
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>>truck salmon to ocean
Wow. Speechless.
>>earth-heat-imbalance-warming
Again... speechless.
>> water level up 6-8 feet vs what it was about a month ago.
That sounds right. At least in CA reservoirs should peak in July normally (though it appears not this year). Essentially, most of the runoff is May-June and the biggest irrigation needs are June-September, so that ideally yields a high point in July.
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Oroville water drop will force hydro-power plant offline
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/17/us/california-drought-oroville-power/index.html
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"keeping the rows of powerful computers inside the data center from overheating will require up to 1.25 million gallons of water each day"
Drought-stricken communities push back against data centers
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/internet/drought-stricken-communities-push-back-against-data-centers-n1271344
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Wow. I never thought about that. Thanks for posting.
exploring ways to incorporate circularity,
That was my first thought. I guess it's just a lot more expensive to capture the water and cool it back down (especially in Arizona).
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> capture the water and cool it back down
Wildly so. All I can think of is cooling towers or many, many miles of deeply buried pipe in a closed loop. I guess it could be pumped back into the aquifer, but what would be the long-term ramifications of slightly raising the ground water temperatures? Dunno.
But the water could be potable (though it might be salty). The 'mineral water' discharge of my geothermal heat pump is fine to drink, in fact we use it for daily coffee lately. So pump it into retention ponds then over to city reservoirs?
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AMZ: Reducing Water in Data Centers
https://sustainability.aboutamazon.com/environment/the-cloud/data-centers
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>>AMZ
Thanks. Interesting read.
It seems that if San Diego can filter out feces, drugs, cleaning products, and make the water fit to drink, data centers could certainly treat their water and make it fit to recirculate as coolant.
One of the fundamental ideas in Marc Reisner's Cadillac Desert is that through most of the West, water is artificially cheap and that until it gets priced according to its actual cost, it makes sense to build a data center in the desert and let it use 1.25m gallons per day.
The book is old and there have been some positive changes. When it was written, many districts made it illegal to meter water. In other words, state law prohibited municipal districts from putting meters on houses or irrigation pipes. That's all past. In Fresno, as they rolled out meters sector by sector, they saw a 50% reduction in usage very quickly. But overall, I think most of what Reisner says holds up.
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‘We live in a desert. We have to act like it’: Las Vegas faces reality of drought
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/09/las-vegas-climate-change-drought-water-conservation
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But we've heard that from Vegas for decades. To me the quote that sums up the situation is rather
“I had hoped I would’ve worked myself out of a job by now. But it looks like I will retire first.”
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"Las Vegas reached 117 degrees Fahrenheit (47 Celsius) to equal a mark also set in 1942, 2005, 2013 and 2017, and could hit that level again Sunday, according to the National Weather Service.
Readings reached 113F in Sacramento as heat continues to grip the western U.S. at least for a few more days"
Heat Scorches U.S. West as Records Fall Across the Region - BNN Bloomberg
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/heat-scorches-u-s-west-as-records-fall-across-the-region-1.1627640
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>Lake Oroville
Lake Oroville, CA; 3 years ago, 3 months ago, and last week
https://old.reddit.com/r/ThatsInsane/comments/ossz1l/lake_oroville_ca_3_years_ago_3_months_ago_and/
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Wow. That is extreme.
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Or, any place where people routinely use oven mitts to handle their steering wheels....
>Phoenix
It's just a dry heat
https://old.reddit.com/r/mildlyinfuriating/comments/p1qh0p/its_just_a_dry_heat/
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Reminds me of a Rusty Dewees (aka "The Logger") line. In a skit where he's complaining about people who move to Phoenix from Vermont and then tell you (in an airy voice) that it's not bad because it's a dry heat. He says that's BS. "How do I know? Because when it's twenty below and humid, you ain't hot."
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And yet, Phoenix is now the fifth-largest city in the United States, new US Census Bureau data shows.
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>>fifth-largest
Discussed on the weekly Economist podcast about the US
https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2021/08/13/wildfires-soaring-temperatures-and-water-shortages-does-nature-have-the-upper-hand-in-the-american-west
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And yet, Phoenix is now the fifth-largest city in the United States, new US Census Bureau data shows.
Parts of the US are getting dangerously hot. Yet Americans are moving the wrong way
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/16/us-climate-change-americans-census-data?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1629109419
Typical. hhh
The Census Bureau’s new map of the last decade’s population trends shows big growth in the west and on the coasts – and declines in the inland east coast and Great Lakes region.
The Great Lakes region isn't sure it wants a bunch of Coasties and Texans moving here, buying up our rusty stuff.
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Today, U.S. officials are expected to declare the first-ever water shortage from a river that serves 40 million people in the West, triggering cuts to some Arizona farmers next year amid a gripping drought.
>The Great Lakes region isn't sure it wants a bunch of Coasties and Texans moving here
Hhh, don't worry. Too damn cold! And too near Ohio.
I see more & more "don't move here" comments in the NC /r, though it is not really affecting my area. We lost 93 in my county since the last census ...a little bittersweet, but it'll help keep the area LCOL.
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"Tier 1 shortage among river water users, with Arizona farmers taking the biggest hit." Biggest hit, so far.meme
Feds confirm Colorado River shortage, water allocation cuts coming in 2022
https://www.courthousenews.com/feds-confirm-colorado-river-shortage-water-allocation-cuts-coming-in-2022/
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Climate Change In California Is Threatening The World's Top Almond Producer
https://www.npr.org/2021/08/17/1028452988/climate-change-california-drought-heat-almond-production
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>almonds
California Has More Than One Almond Problem
https://www.newser.com/story/309946/almonds-are-a-thirsty-crop-thats-a-problem-in-california.html
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During the last severe drought, many farmers switched to *more* water-intensive crops.
Why? If you are the guy with the well and can pump enough water, you can grow those crops when others can't, so they're worth more. So hedge funds put millions into very deep wells so farmers could switch to crops that drank more water and made more money.
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>wells
"As drought worsens, there are few, if any, protections in place for California’s depleted groundwater. The new law gave local agencies at least 26 years — until 2040 — to stop the impacts of over-pumping."
California enacted a groundwater law 7 years ago. But wells are still drying up — and the threat is spreading
https://calmatters.org/environment/2021/08/california-groundwater-dry/
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>>wells
I think I recounted that this is what was keeping me up. In 2020, I was telling everyone that I would be so relieved when Nov 5 was passed. They kept saying, "You mean November 3?" meaning election day. I said, "No, November 5, when our utility district makes the final decision on adding new customers to the water system."
In coastal CA and to some extent the Owens Valley, earthquakes are a significant threat. But for most of CA there are only two threats that matter: fire and water, and the both tend to be bad at the same time.
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Why Some Californians are Buying Machines That Make Water Out of Air
https://gvwire.com/2021/10/06/why-some-californians-are-buying-machines-that-make-water-out-of-air/
Spoiler alert: no, this isn't magic... it's just condenser tech and therefore won't work in AZ or most of CA.
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> condenser
What are they using for cooling the coils? seems like a bad environmental tradeoff to have more machines slowly leaking ozone layer depleting chemicals.
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California records driest year in a century | Macon Telegraph
https://www.macon.com/news/nation-world/national/article255091242.html
>condenser
I occasionally see various non-condenser "from thin air" collectors touted for Ethiopia, etc. They never seem to make it beyond testing.
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> collectors
I saw net type collectors being reintroduced in the Nazca Plain area on some TV documentary. Apparently, that was how the ancient indigenous peoples collected water. I don't know if the modern incarnation ever took off or not.
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Like this;
Warka Water Tower
https://www.engineeringforchange.org/solutions/product/warka-water-tower
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>>seems like a bad environmental tradeoff
For whom?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons
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>>Why Some Californians are Buying Machines That Make Water Out of Air
California's Marin County could run out of water next summer as climate shifts drought patterns
Welcome to the future in Marin County, one where a $2 million house with an ocean view doesn't necessarily come with a reliable water supply.
"There used to be at least 10 years in between droughts in California, which was time enough for water ecosystems to recover." No longer. The last California drought, which persisted six years, ended in 2017. The current one began three years later and poses an existential threat to places like Marin County, which rely on local water sources for most or all of their supply. The past year has been the second driest on record in California.
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/California-s-Marin-County-could-run-out-of-water-16554942.php
Bolinas, which is in Marin but has its own water system, limits water use to 125 gallons per household per day. That seems lavish for someone living alone in an apartment, but draconian for a family like Littleman's...
https://www.marinij.com/2021/02/25/bolinas-approves-mandatory-water-rationing-plan/
Daily dashboard of usage:
https://bcpud.org/
The Marin Water district struck a deal with Flume to provide the devices to its customers at a 75% discount. It provides real-time monitoring
https://flumewater.com/
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related:
Flo by Moen 3/4" Smart Home Water Monitoring And Leak Detection System
https://www.moen.com/products/900-001
AFAIK, Flo requires the cloud. The hubitat community has been trying to integrate it via the Flo api, but I'm not sure if it was successful. Still wouldn't be local.
There is a local zwave water flow meter for which you can write your own app ….
https://www.fortrezz.com/shop/flow-meter
I'm not closely following any of these flow meters but I did install leak detectors and a water main shutoff.
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Lake Mead water level to be bolstered by $100M plan | Las Vegas Review-Journal
https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/100m-plan-in-the-works-to-leave-more-water-in-lake-mead-2476569/
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California water districts to get 0% of requested supplies in unprecedented decision | California drought | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/02/california-water-districts-zero-water-requested-supplies
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It's December, it hasn't snowed in Denver and records are falling - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/weather/colorado-snow-drought-denver/index.html
BTW, North Carolina is now in a fairly deep drought, even up here in our region ...which usually gets better rainfall. Winter wheat is looking stunted and starting to tinge with yellow.
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Severe Drought Impacting Carolinas After Third Driest November for State on Record
https://www.wccbcharlotte.com/2021/12/02/severe-drought-impacting-carolinas-after-third-driest-november-for-state-on-record/
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It was 60 degrees here the last couple days. The normal high temps here around this time of year are in the mid-30s. Local ski resorts have had to close down over the last few days.
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fewer crops in a region that supplies a quarter of the nation's food
Citing drought, feds won't give water to California farmers - ABC News
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/citing-drought-feds-give-water-california-farmers-83069693
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Lake Mead approaches critical threshold
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/us/lake-powell-water-colorado-river-climate/index.html
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Sent from mr mf mackin today:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/27/us/water-intake-exposed-lake-mead-drought-climate/index.html
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We're anxiously awaiting the May 1 snow survey, the most important one of the year. The April 1 survey was 41% of normal in the Merced and Tuolumne River watersheds. This might rise a bit because we've had colder, wetter April.
Still, the 1.5 feet that fell on Thursday night is gone, so it won't change it much. Also, "normal" is a moving target. I assume that snowpack is like temperature in that it is a 30-year moving average. So 41% of normal in 2022 is not the same as 41% of normal in 1922.
Related:
As Climate Fears Mount, Some Are Relocating Within the US
https://www.wired.com/story/as-climate-fears-mount-some-are-relocating-within-the-us
Top destinations: New England and Southern Appalachia. They (we) are coming your way.
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>They (we) are coming your way.
OMG would they (you) effen stop?! I feel like we're the kitchen corner and someone just flipped on the light at 3am.
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> effen stop
Every day, someone on /r/nc asks where can they relocate to that:
- has outdoor activities
- decent, reliable internet
- less expensive housing
- lcol
Good schools are seemingly less requested now (Not having kids?).
I keep my mouth shut.
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SO many "moving here" posts on our sub the past couple of years. I have to stfu or it won't be nice. Best response lately? Sorry, we full. hhh
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California water use continues to climb despite severe drought outlook
https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2022/06/10/california-water-use-climbs-despite-severe-drought-outlook/
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I think I've let up on my "water discipline" TBH. I'm not surprised to see this has crept back up.
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I just read they have been finding lots of human remains at the bottom with the water levels so low.
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>discipline
Monitoring to 'help'($$$) some with lack of discipline coming soon....
California drought: "Smart" water meters coming to San Jose, other Bay Area cities in latest effort to boost conservation
https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2022/06/16/california-drought-smart-water-meters-coming-to-san-jose-other-bay-area-cities-in-latest-effort-to-boost-conservation/
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We had some discussion of those here as well. Our use case is a bit different - rental owners/operators could use them to spy on guests and try to stop running toilets or some excessive usage. Not cheap though.
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>"keeping the rows of powerful computers inside the data center from overheating will require up to 1.25 million gallons of water each day". Drought-stricken communities push back against data centers
The West’s drought could bring about a data center reckoning
https://www.protocol.com/climate/drought-data-centers-tracking-water
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Californians miss water conservation targets again as drought worsens.
Statewide urban water use fell 3.1% in May, far short of Gov. Gavin Newsom's 15% target
https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2022/07/08/californians-miss-water-conservation-targets-again-as-drought-worsens/
Also...
Wildfire nears famous site in California’s Yosemite National Park
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/8/wildfire-nears-famous-site-in-californias-yosemite-national-park
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>>wildfire
I was just going to post that. We took the niece to the airport and got caught on the wrong side if it and had to drive around. Living in the CA mountains (well, most of the state actually) in the summer is like going to Stoicism Boot Camp. "What will we do if we lose everything?"
The most active flank is an area that I have thought about skiing, but have begged off because it's a tangle of vegetation. Lots of fuel. On the other hand, the world has lost something like 20% of its sequoia trees in the last few years (and the grove in question lost six trees in a wind event last year). Thus there will likely be a lot of resources thrown at this.
After a day of unfavorable conditions, they have started up with the LATs and VLATs again (Large and Very Large Air Tanker). But there are only 200 personnel on this one so far, which is a drop in the bucket. On big fires, it seems like they don't usually start making serious headway until they get up to about 2,000 personnel. But we're only at 1,190 acres right now, so if they VLATs can hammer it until dark, maybe there's a chance they can keep it small. Most likely outcome is a significant fire for a month.
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Live view of said fire: https://www.alertwildfire.org/region/sierra/?camera=Axis-Deadwood
One of the most up-to-date resources
https://twitter.com/hashtag/WashburnFire?src=hashtag_click&f=live
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This is insane
https://twitter.com/Jasamsdestiny/status/1545980171735289857?s=20&t=T82qyaOLPdFyf8li7ncM4A
That is radio traffic between pilots. One (I think a spotter plane directing traffic) says a "sizable branch" just got lofted on the winds to a height 50 feet above his aircraft and then came down between him and one of the tankers. The other says, "so a repeat of yesterday."
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Third body found in Lake Mead
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/third-body-discovered-at-nevada-s-lake-mead/ss-AAZue1Y
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It's not a lake, it's soup.
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More human remains found in receding waters of US lake
Fourth human skeleton discovered as drought shrinks Lake Mead reservoir.
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Fifth set of human skeletal remains found at Lake Mead as drought conditions continue
https://www.foxnews.com/us/fifth-set-human-skeletal-remains-found-lake-mead-drought-conditions-continue
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No mention of any bodies in this one....
The "Monolith of Lake Mead" is a sunken speedboat sticking straight up out of the dry lakebed
https://boingboing.net/2022/08/18/the-monolith-of-lake-mead-is-a-sunken-speedboat-sticking-straight-up-out-of-the-dry-lakebed.html
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This is getting real. Celebs may have to let some trees die on their sprawling estates.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-22/kim-kardashian-kevin-hart-california-drought-water-waste
That’s behind a paywall, but covered elsewhere - Stallone, Kardashians, Kevin Hart, Dwayne Wade et cetera being threatened with flow restrictors for being as much as 15x over their allotment.
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Dinosaur tracks revealed in dried up Texas river
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/dinosaur-tracks-dating-back-113-million-years-revealed-in-drought-stricken-river/ar-AA111mDb
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Grown kids recall Las Vegas dad whose bones ID'd from Lake Mead
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/grown-kids-recall-las-vegas-dad-whose-bones-id-d-from-lake-mead-1.6044322
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"Don’t call it a ‘drought’: Climate scientist Brad Udall views Colorado River crisis as the beginning of aridification"
“This isn’t a drought, it’s something else,” he said. “Myself and other scientists are trying to use a different term: Aridification.”
Aridification is defined as “the gradual change of a region from a wetter to a drier climate.” According to Udall, it also means “declining snowpacks, it’s earlier runoff, it’s a shorter winter, it’s more rain, less snow, it’s higher temps. It’s drying soils, it’s severe fires, it’s forest mortality, it’s a warm, thirsty atmosphere.”
https://www.steamboatpilot.com/news/dont-call-it-a-drought-climate-scientist-brad-udall-views-colorado-river-crisis-as-the-beginning-of-aridification/
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>>aridification
Good read. Thanks
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Water: John Oliver Tonight
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtxew5XUVbQ
I'm not really a fan of the John Oliver schtick to be honest, but he does hit the major points here.
There is one point where he has video of the governor of Utah beseeching people of all faiths to pray for rain. The lip syncing is so far off, it seemed like a comedy voice over, not even very well done. But actually, it's legit. The governor did in fact make a video in which he says "we need some divine intervention" and says that if everyone prays together for the weekend of June 4-6, "we may be able to escape the deadliest aspects of the continuing drought."
https://youtu.be/0A2KkyDGHRY?t=32
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I missed, this, but meanwhile, there was near-record rainfall in Death Valley on August 5, resulting in flooding and road damage
https://www.nps.gov/deva/learn/nature/deva-deluge-2022.htm
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Phoenix area left cleaning up monsoon messes once again
https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/phoenix-area-left-cleaning-up-monsoon-messes-once-again
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Flooding hits Dallas-Fort Worth as some areas receive more than 13 inches of rain
https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/22/dallas-flooding-fort-worth/
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A 100km(62 miles) long Inland sea has been formed in Pakistan due to continuous rains
https://old.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/x5j7al/a_100km62_miles_long_inland_sea_has_been_formed/
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"Without major reductions, the latest federal projections show growing risks of Lake Mead and Lake Powell approaching 'dead pool' levels, where water would no longer pass downstream through the dams."
California braces for painful water cuts from Colorado River
https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2022/09/04/facing-dead-pool-risk-california-braces-for-painful-water-cuts-from-colorado-river/
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(Lotsa luck with that!) Calif lusts for the Missippi River:
We need to move water from Midwest west. let's get on with it
https://www.desertsun.com/story/opinion/contributors/valley-voice/2022/09/04/we-need-move-water-midwest-west-lets-get/7884511001/
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Water pipelines/plants will be the public-private partnerships (toll roads) of the future, IMO. We'll have water, but it'll be expensive. On the upside, there may be some good investment opportunities on the horizon.
https://ppp.worldbank.org/public-private-partnership/5-trends-public-private-partnerships-water-supply-and-sanitation
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Temperatures smash records in US west as brutal heatwave continues
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/07/california-record-temperatures-heatwave-blackouts-sacramento-reno
We're still in a holding pattern of 85-88f highs with humidity to match. No sign of Fall.
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>US west
The past few days we have finally broken out of the 90s. Seems like there were a LOT more 90+ degree days here than normal. I think around 20 days in August were over 90 and we usually average 19 for the whole year.
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The Latter-day Saint ghost town that keeps emerging from Lake Mead
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/the-latter-day-saint-ghost-town-that-keeps-emerging-from-lake-mead/ar-AA120F2F
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Israel is showing the world how to save water
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/19/opinions/water-climate-crisis-farm-drought-israel-siegel/index.html
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Dwindling Mississippi Grounds Barges, Threatens Shipments - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-05/us-harvest-hits-snag-as-drought-grounds-mississippi-barges
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The Climate Prediction Center’s official winter forecast has been released, and it’s got some mixed news for California.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/noaa-releases-california-winter-weather-predictions/ar-AA13bUTs
You can see that dividing line in map released Thursday (below): Southern California is expected to have a drier-than-normal winter, while Northern California is a bit of a mystery. The northern half of the state has equal chances of being above-average and below-average for rain and snow.
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>aridification
Drought threatens Colorado River with ‘complete doomsday scenario', officials say - The Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/01/drought-colorado-river-lake-powell/
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Since 2002, southern Nevada’s use of Colorado River water has decreased about 26%, even as the area’s population has rapidly grown. Per capita water use has dropped 48%.
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2023-01-29/colorado-river-in-crisis-cracking-down-on-grass
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>> Golf courses were given water budgets.
Driving through suburban Las Vegas, one encounters lots of Sun City developments with golf courses with artificial waterfalls.
Coachella: Why Golf Courses Continue to Thrive in the Desert
https://www.yahoo.com/now/why-desert-golf-courses-artificial-130044826.html
"Though its population is much smaller than the Las Vegas area, it gets more imported water."
Short version:
1. if you sink your own well deep enough, you're mostly allowed to do whatever you want with the water.
2. restrictions apply to potable water, not non-potable water brought in from the Colorado River via canals.
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As the Colorado River Shrinks, Washington Prepares to Spread the Pain - The New York Times
"The seven states that rely on water from the shrinking Colorado River are unlikely to agree to voluntarily make deep reductions in their water use, negotiators say, which would force the federal government to impose cuts for the first time in the water supply for 40 million Americans."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/27/climate/colorado-river-biden-cuts.html
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California's abundant snowpack brings hope that state's drought is over - Washington Times
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/feb/2/californias-abundant-snowpack-brings-hope-states-d/
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>> 205%
The bigger question is what percentage of the annual total is that? Answer, 100%. In other words, if we add nothing to the snowpack and receive as much snow as melts off between now and May 1, we will have a "normal" year.
https://www.kron4.com/news/snowfall-hits-100-percent-of-the-annual-average-in-californias-sierra-nevada-mountains/
Whether the drought is "over" or not is a somewhat different question. This may be a brief interlude in a long mega-drought or possibly turning the corner on a decade plus of drought. Not likely the latter.
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The knives are coming out....
California Wants to Keep (Most of) the Colorado River for Itself
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/23/opinion/colorado-river-california-arizona-drought.html
As climate change shrinks the river, California argues, it’s Arizona that should take the biggest cuts. If the water in Lake Mead dips below 1,025 feet above sea level, California’s proposal would cut Arizona’s allocation in half, but California’s share, which is already larger, would be cut only 17 percent.
A rapidly growing California could have locked up rights to the biggest drink of the Colorado River, but it needed the federal government’s help to build dams and canals — so it agreed to share the water with its neighbors.
For a good long time, that agreement was mostly theoretical. The other states hadn’t yet built sufficient infrastructure to access their share of the water. But by the 1960s, Arizona tried to build a canal to carry the river’s water to Phoenix and Tucson — and California fought hard to block it.
In 1968, California agreed to stand down, but only if Arizona agreed to give California priority if the river ever shrank. With no other way to get the water it needed, Arizona took the deal.
The biggest user of this water is to grow alfalfa, much of which is exported and the rest is used to feed cattle. It's a crazy crop to grow in the desert.
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Or maybe the knives will stay sheathed for another year..
California Drought Status Looks Very Different After Extreme Rain and Snow (Newsweek via MSN)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/california-drought-status-looks-very-different-after-extreme-rain-and-snow/ar-AA18aG8K
Warm atmospheric rivers in California forecast could spell trouble for massive snowpack (Yahoo! News via MSN)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/warm-atmospheric-rivers-in-california-forecast-could-spell-trouble-for-massive-snowpack/ar-AA188CTl?
Majority of CA sites already past annual average rainfall (keep in mind, that we are almost at the end of the rainfall year - March is the last important month, so this is expected given two huge storm cycles)
https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/1631326648321863681
Statewide daily snowpack readings (official March 1 numbers from manual surveys not in yet, so I assume this is based on remote sensing)
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/swccond.pdf
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/sweq.action
And this is cool - you can compare curves for the year with any other year, including record-setting 1982-83. In the southern and central parts of the state, we're close to those levels.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/swcchart.action
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Be interesting to see if the level changes in lake Mead.
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US mulling forced cuts of Colorado River use as water dwindles
https://today.rtl.lu/news/science-and-environment/a/2050971.html
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Be interesting to see if the level changes in lake Mead.
Can't find the link right now, but I saw something that said Lake Mead had risen something like three feet but Lake Powell only a foot and it is dropping fast. The article I did find from today said Lake Powell dropped 1.5 feet in the past 11 days and is only 20 feet from the level at which it can no longer generate electricity.
https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-news/how-low-could-it-go-feds-reveal-3-alternatives-for-lake-mead-colorado-river/
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Colorado River states to share water shortages under federal plan
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-environment/2023/04/11/federal-plan-could-force-colorado-river-states-share-water-shortages-drought/70103510007/