The Core
Why We Are Here => Water Cooler => Topic started by: rcjordan on April 14, 2020, 02:52:55 PM
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Germany - DER SPIEGEL
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/scientific-experts-release-proposals-for-loosening-the-lockdown-a-f6247ecc-0583-45b5-a269-ebf385c1e698
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California, Oregon and Washington Announce Joint Plan to Ease Social Distancing Restrictions, Reopen Businesses
https://www.newsweek.com/california-oregon-washington-announce-joint-plan-ease-social-distancing-restrictions-reopen-1497634
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In his daily briefing on 4/13/2020 Indiana Gov. said that the Great Lakes States were also coordinating when and how to reopen the economy. He mentioned: Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, (maybe Pennsylvania but I don't remember) maybe others.
Of course we're about a week or two behind The Coasts in reaching our CV peak so it's still a ways off.
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>CV peak
BTW, IHME data updated yesterday: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
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Austria, Spain, Italy, ease lockdown restrictions as Nigeria, France issue extension
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/more-news/387796-austria-spain-italy-ease-lockdown-restrictions-as-nigeria-france-issue-extension.html
Empty streets in Austria as country reopens shops and eases lockdown | The Independent
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-austria-lockdown-shops-open-new-cases-economy-unemployment-a9464951.html
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Maine coordinating with NH, Vermont on reopening economy amid coronavirus — Bangor Daily News
https://bangordailynews.com/2020/04/14/politics/maine-coordinating-with-n-h-vermont-on-reopening-economy-amid-coronavirus/
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The bigger news here is that states are working together as regions.
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WH leaks plan:
The plan lays out three-phases: Preparing the nation to reopen with a national communication campaign and community readiness assessment until May 1. Then, the effort, through May 15, would involve ramping up manufacturing of testing kits and personal protective equipment and increasing emergency funding. Then staged reopenings would begin, dep
ending on local conditions. The plan does not give specific dates for reopenings but specified "not before May 1."
The first priority, according to the CDC response document, is to "reopen community settings where children are cared for, including K-12 schools, daycares, and locally attended summer camps, to allow the workforce to return to work. Other community settings will follow with careful monitoring for increased transmission that exceeds the public health and health care systems."
[zerohedge]
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Then, the effort, through May 15, would involve ramping up manufacturing of testing kits and personal protective equipment and increasing emergency funding.
About 2 months behind. What was their first clue? We can't do squat until testing is plentiful and results accurate and fast.
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TL:DR;
six key indicators that will guide the state’s decision as it considers lifting the stay-at-home order:
“The ability to monitor and protect our communities through testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed;
The ability to prevent infection in people who are at risk for more severe COVID-19;
The ability of the hospital and health systems to handle surges;
The ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand;
The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing; and
The ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary.”
Even once the stay-at-home order is lifted, Newsom said society won’t snap back to normal. For example, he said restaurants will likely have to limit capacity and face coverings in public will likely be common.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom unveils guide to lifting state's coronavirus restrictions
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/california-gov-gavin-newsom-unveils-guide-to-lifting-coronavirus-restrictions.html
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>face coverings
Once the lockdowns are lifted I expect bank robberies to increase for a time.
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An economic lockdown will remain largely in place for an additional 20 days, Ms. Merkel cautioned, and strict social distancing rules will remain in force.
But some shops will be allowed to reopen beginning next week — although only those with the necessary protections in place to allow strict social distancing to continue, she said.
Older students might be allowed back to school in May but that will be contingent on a radically changed setup involving small groups, face masks and social distancing rules for school buses.
Relying on Science and Politics, Merkel Offers a Cautious Virus Re-entry Plan - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/world/europe/coronavirus-germany-merkel.html
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Irish PM says any lifting of restrictions will be over months - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ireland/irish-pm-says-any-lifting-of-restrictions-will-be-over-months-idUSKCN21Y212
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New MIT machine learning model shows relaxing quarantine rules will spike COVID-19 cases | TechCrunch
https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/16/new-mit-machine-learning-model-shows-relaxing-quarantine-rules-will-spike-covid-19-cases/
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Liberal founder of Vox media interviews Scott Gottlieb, Trumps former FDA chief and one of the lead authors of the American Enterprise Institute report on how/when to reopen the economy. I have only listened to the first 15 minutes, but this is a good, in-depth (over one hour) discussion not the quick and superficial confrontational style that tends to play on evening news.
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/14/21219021/scott-gottlieb-coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-economy-recession
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Michigan joins 7-state Midwest coalition for reopening regional economy
https://www.crainsdetroit.com/government/michigan-joins-7-state-midwest-coalition-reopening-regional-economy
North Dakota Will Begin to Reopen Starting on May 1
https://www.newsweek.com/north-dakota-will-begin-reopen-starting-may-1-1498379
Coronavirus in Ohio: Gov. Mike DeWine says reopening state's economy to begin May 1
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2020/04/16/coronavirus-ohio-gov-mike-dewine-covid-19-update-april-16/5144374002/
Gov. Andrew Cuomo Extends New York’s Shutdown as Hundreds More Die
https://www.thedailybeast.com/gov-andrew-cuomo-extends-new-yorks-shutdown-as-hundreds-more-die
More States Extend Shutdowns: New York, Connecticut, Maryland, Virginia
https://www.theepochtimes.com/more-states-extend-shutdowns-new-york-connecticut-maryland-virginia_3314908.html
UK needs virus restrictions to stay, says science chief - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-vallance/uk-needs-virus-restrictions-to-stay-says-science-chief-idUSKBN21Y2OX
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Coronavirus UK: lockdown measures extended by at least 3 weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-measures-extended-by-at-least-3-weeks.html
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>New MIT machine learning model shows relaxing quarantine rules will spike COVID-19 cases
I don't think we need a super-computer to tell us that. Pleasing Trump by sticking to May 1 is going to be very bad, Ohio already has a per-capita infection rate 50% higher than California.
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Big Talk. No Action.
We kept hearing Big Talk by Trump about mass producing testing supplies. 4 weeks later, it hasn't happened.
Big Talk about PPE and while it's gotten better around the edges we are still barely supplying hospitals 4 weeks later.
Now I hear Big Talk from Trump and the Kool-Aid swilling Republicans about opening up the lockdown for the economy. (Take a round for Wall Street.) But we still don't have testing supplies worth squat.
And, mark my words, if Trump is still around when we find a vaccine, he'll c*ck that up too, and it will take 5 times longer to get it out there in sufficient numbers.
I pray every day that the Governors DO NOT listen to Trump's Big Talk. Skip May 1st.
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>Ohio
I could be wrong, but I don't think Gov Dewine is trying to please Trump. He just locked down earlier & harder than almost everyone and OH is currently 3 days past the peak deaths. IIRC, he's really not easing up very much in the beginning. His constituents are getting antsy, like everyone else. Gotta give them a little something.
But, yeah, some of the other govs are just sucking up.
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Like this guy
Missouri governor Parson extends stay-home order to May 3, then 'back to work' | kctv5.com
https://www.kctv5.com/coronavirus/parson-extends-stay-home-order-to-may-3-then-back-to-work/article_00976dfd-700f-5350-a4aa-4acc0040de68.html
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Re Ohio & the rest of the middle of the country.
Check out the map below, it is deaths relative to population. I can't imagine with those places so hot it would be wise to open up.
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USA sick map
https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-USA/0100B5K8423/index.html
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New York and other East Coast states extend shutdown to May 15: Cuomo
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/new-york-and-other-east-coast-states-extend-shutdown-of-nonessential-businesses-to-may-15-gov-cuomo-says.html
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From the Peeing Section...
Heartland hotspots: A sudden rise in coronavirus cases is hitting rural states without stay-at-home orders - CNNPolitics
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/politics/republican-governors-stay-at-home-coronavirus/index.html
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Beaches in Florida will start reopening THIS EVENING ‘with restrictions’ despite rising death and infection rates in the state – after Trump said it was up to governors to decide when to come out of lockdown (https://expressdigest.com/beaches-in-florida-will-start-reopening-this-evening/)
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#Floridaman
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Austria Tests Post-Coronavirus Reopening of Economy
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/17/after-flattening-the-curve-austria-takes-a-gamble/
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With Brazilians increasingly ignoring health officials' warnings to stay home -- encouraged by their far-right president, who has condemned the "hysteria" over the virus -- predictions for how the pandemic will play out in the hardest-hit country in Latin America are getting dire.
Brazil, an country of 210 million people, has registered 1,532 deaths from the new coronavirus so far.
But the state of Sao Paulo alone is expecting 111,000 deaths over six months, nearly equal to the entire worldwide toll to date.
Brazil braces for onslaught of COVID-19 cases as virus advances
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/brazil-braces-onslaught-covid-19-cases-virus-advances-150712295.html
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The Grim Truth About the “Swedish Model” - Project Syndicate
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/swedish-coronavirus-no-lockdown-model-proves-lethal-by-hans-bergstrom-2020-04
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South Carolina to reopen public beaches, retail stores next week amid pandemic | TheHill
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/493501-south-carolina-to-reopen-public-beaches-retail-stores-next-week-amid
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‘Very, Very Scary’: Officials Dumbfounded as Florida Beaches Reopen, 3 Days After Death Spike
https://www.thedailybeast.com/jacksonville-florida-beaches-reopen-three-days-after-states-coronavirus-death-toll-spiked
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Florida coronavirus cases see biggest one-day increase since testing started
https://www.news4jax.com/news/florida/2020/04/17/florida-coronavirus-cases-top-24000-deaths-near-700/
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Danish hairdressers signal end to Europe's bad hair days - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark-salons/danish-hairdressers-signal-end-to-europes-bad-hair-days-idUSKBN2222F5
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GA Gov. Brian Kemp is reopening sectors of the economy beginning Friday
https://www.wrdw.com/content/news/GA-Gov-Brian-Kemp-to-speak-at-4-pm-as-states-wrestle-to-re-open-COVID-19-stricken-economies-569789821.html
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Gov. Lee Announces Safer at Home Order Will Expire April 30, Tennessee Begins Phased Reopening Next Week
https://www.tn.gov/governor/news/2020/4/20/gov--lee-announces-safer-at-home-order-will-expire-april-30--tennessee-begins-phased-reopening-next-week.html
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Denmark to allow public gatherings of up to 500 people from May 10: TV2 - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark/denmark-to-allow-public-gatherings-of-up-to-500-people-from-may-10-tv2-idUSKBN2230Q3
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Atlanta mayor urges residents to stay at home as governor reopens state: 'Look at the science' | TheHill
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/494043-atlanta-mayor-urges-residents-to-stay-at-home-as-governor-reopens-state
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>Atlanta
And on the other end of the spectrum...
Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman's interview with Anderson Cooper goes viral
https://www.ktnv.com/news/coronavirus/las-vegas-mayor-carolyn-goodmans-interview-with-anderson-cooper-goes-viral
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https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica
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>> https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica
Much of that seems sensible but reality on the ground has a lot of catching up to do.
Personal bugbear: Why do they stop short of requiring masks in public?
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>Downward trajectory
I don't see that working, not with the statistical slop we've been seeing.
>Why do they stop short of requiring masks in public?
Can't trample on American's right to passively harm to themselves or others (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Xjn93RpoJ8) in the name of freedom.
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After six straight days of no new cases, the Canadian province of New Brunswick is beginning to lift its first restrictions - allowing the re-opening of outdoor spaces and allowing members of two different households to gather. (cbc.ca)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/covid-19-recovery-plan-new-brunswick-blaine-higgs-1.5543682
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Kelly: Kansas 'nowhere near' testing goals; May 3 reopening in doubt
https://www.kshb.com/news/coronavirus/kelly-kansas-nowhere-near-testing-goals-may-3-reopening-in-doubt
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>Personal bugbear: Why do they stop short of requiring masks in public?
Because we don't have enough masks.
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True for N95, but there's lots of data that even homemade masks would slow down the spread.
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>> even homemade masks
Yes. Homemade masks would be less protective than N95s, but they still have the major benefit of reducing droplet spread by the wearer. Considering that people can be infections before they know they have it, reducing droplet spread is A Good Thing.
My mask protects you, your mask protects me.
Sneeze catchers!
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TL;DR: Georgia, Oklahoma and Alaska
3 states partly reopen, despite health officials' warnings
https://www.kiro7.com/news/georgia-eases/4SJJ4UZBKPFGZIY6IE4BFDLTKI/
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NC Struggles with Science, Politics, Increasing Infections, Social Distancing, and Poultry
https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/nc-struggles-with-science-politics-82919/
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Lodging and bars reopen in California on June 11 in those counties who meet a certain threshold* The cleaning protocols are fairly intense and will take a lot of extra labor. Lodging will be caught in the same Catch-22 as airlines - costs are up, but demand is down.
Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
*It seems that the critical threshold is that they open in all counties where the Chamber of Commerce and Tourism Bureau has applied sufficient pressure.
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We are in Phase 2 here in our county (restaurants at 50% capacity, retail stores open, you can get together with 5 people outside your family, etc.) and since they started the new cases per day have gone from ~5-10 per day to ~20 per day. There have been a couple concentrated outbreaks at a couple manufacturing plants that skew the numbers up a bit so the increase in cases isn't due to community spread. Just more testing and contact tracing.
Hospitalizations haven't increased at all and most of the cases are in some younger demographics.
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>Hospitalizations haven't increased at all and most of the cases are in some younger demographics.
As RC pointed elsewhere, it seems to take a month or so for the infections to trickle up to the elderly.
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Coronavirus Cases Are Rising in 20 U.S. States, With Sharp Spikes in Arizona, North Carolina and California
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-cases-are-rising-20-us-states-sharp-spikes-arizona-north-carolina-california-1509382