Th3 Core

Why We Are Here => Water Cooler => Topic started by: rcjordan on September 10, 2018, 11:03:16 PM

Title: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 10, 2018, 11:03:16 PM
Reddit gets it right. Again.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: littleman on September 10, 2018, 11:37:09 PM
Though it seems to happen every season, it is still scary stuff.  Hang in there guys.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Travoli on September 10, 2018, 11:56:35 PM
Supplies are already running low.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Rumbas on September 11, 2018, 07:46:58 AM
Stay safe guys!
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Rupert on September 11, 2018, 08:59:54 AM
Seems early this year?  hope it goes well for you.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Brad on September 11, 2018, 10:43:16 AM
>supplies

Scotland, Ireland, Tennessee and Kentucky are standing by with emergency relief supplies.

Stay safe.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Mackin USA on September 11, 2018, 01:12:08 PM
We are READY
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 11, 2018, 05:31:55 PM
Hhh, pretty good. This one is making the rounds again.

Even with a hurricane approaching, people would rather starve than eat vegan food
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Mackin USA on September 11, 2018, 06:00:05 PM
TRUE >>>>> and
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: DrCool on September 11, 2018, 07:36:58 PM
Stay safe and dry. This looks like it will be a fun one for you.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: BoL on September 11, 2018, 08:20:49 PM
Intense. Hope all concerned find themselves out the way.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: littleman on September 11, 2018, 08:31:58 PM
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=28;-109;2&l=gust&w=fast
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Mackin USA on September 12, 2018, 11:30:15 AM
Bathtub FULL
and
We are making ICE
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Drastic on September 12, 2018, 01:42:47 PM
In Raleigh?

Assimilation is obv not complete.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Mackin USA on September 12, 2018, 02:40:45 PM
It makes Ruth Ann happy  8)
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 12, 2018, 03:19:25 PM
Actually, the interior of the coastal states is where there's the most disruption and non-wind danger. Flooding is the big one, as it's hilly vs our being flatter-than-Kansas. A shallow gully that residents previously ignored may channel a flash flood.  The other big problem is trees in the cities & suburbia falling and blocking roads. Also, almost forgot ...too many people.

I can easily see a scenario where Mackin would be house-bound for a week while waiting for power and roads to be cleared.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Drastic on September 12, 2018, 03:47:40 PM
Didn't know it had that much impact that far in.

>It makes Ruth Ann happy 
smart man
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 12, 2018, 05:06:14 PM
Nelson County is at the foot of the Virginia mountains about 200 miles inland.

"Forty-nine years ago this month, just after dark on Aug. 19, 1969, rain began to fall in Nelson County. The remnants of Hurricane Camille had arrived without warning, while many residents already were in bed for the night, dumping an estimated 25 to 30 inches of rain over five hours."

Photos: The destruction of Hurricane Camille

https://www.newsadvance.com/news/local/photos-the-destruction-of-hurricane-camille/collection_0630ed20-474c-11e5-a0d0-0bcb843378a8.html
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Travoli on September 12, 2018, 06:04:38 PM
Should I expect Wilmington to look like that in 3-4 days?
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: ergophobe on September 12, 2018, 06:23:16 PM
Quote
"This is not going to be a glancing blow. ... This is going to be a Mike Tyson punch to the Carolina coast" from Thursday into the weekend, Federal Emergency Management Agency associate administrator Jeff Byard said Wednesday morning.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/12/us/hurricane-florence-south-east-coast-wxc/index.html

Good luck all!
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Mackin USA on September 12, 2018, 06:34:34 PM
GREAT LINK, RC
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Drastic on September 12, 2018, 08:32:06 PM
Cool photos for sure.

Man, we sure don't build houses like we used to.

https://puu.sh/BtXsv/df1bc222c0.jpg

http://puu.sh/BtXEK/ea15a0feb6.jpg
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 12, 2018, 10:08:14 PM
>Nelson

I started college in the adjacent county that same August.  AFAIK, they had recovered all the human remains but there was livestock hanging from trees. And cars ...all the creeks and brooks had cars in them. And remnants of mobile homes.

>Florence

Check the track, Dras. Latest forecast shows it dying out your way.

Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: littleman on September 13, 2018, 02:30:34 AM
Looks like Florence may stall right over the Carolinas.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Adam C on September 13, 2018, 06:07:04 AM
Good luck
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 13, 2018, 01:00:22 PM
Tap into the weather station database at Wilmington airport:

http://climate.ncsu.edu/cronos/?station=KILM

Most current reading on header.

To get logs, select "Hourly" tab
select "1 day"
select "Wind Speed" / "Wind Direction" / "Wind Gust"
Submit (Retrieve Data)
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Mackin USA on September 13, 2018, 02:34:08 PM
#DURHAM
https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2018/09/12/1092280157098521988/640x360_MP4_1092280157098521988.mp4
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Travoli on September 13, 2018, 03:37:19 PM
Live webcam from an old offshore lighthouse. ~30 miles off the Cape Fear coast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deG4NxkouGM
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 13, 2018, 05:35:13 PM
Many of you have met our daughter Bonnie.  She's admin of a nursing home at landfall.  She's been doing media interviews non-stop since yesterday.  She called me last night to complain about the media only picking up the negative, scary points.  She said of the 5 interviews yesterday, only 1 (NPR, IIRC) was generally positive.  USAToday has updated theirs with a tv clip, and it now tilts to the positive side a little bit.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/09/12/hospitals-nursing-homes-hurricane-florence-evacuations-north-carolina-south-carolina/1275695002/
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: ergophobe on September 13, 2018, 06:37:18 PM
That USA Today video piece was really nice. I would call that a positive, feel-good piece. If that's the story the media is looking to tell, they'll tell that story in the face of disaster.

>> She called me last night to complain about the media only picking up the negative, scary points.

On the other hand, if that's the story they want to tell, they will tell that story no matter how good the situation is.

As a general rule, don't speak to the media except through a spokesperson or the police except through a lawyer unless you have a bona fide good reason.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: littleman on September 13, 2018, 07:06:32 PM
It is nice to see Bonnie featured in a piece about people keeping their heads on straight.  She seemed like a very level, even tempered person when I met her.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 13, 2018, 07:15:04 PM
>As a general rule, don't speak to the media except through a spokesperson

Agreed. Except I'm grooming her for CEO.  (Note that eh CEO and the President will ride out the hurricane at the facility. Impressive)

Her nursing home is built and maintained above the North Carolina medical facility building code --and NC is significantly more stringent than those shithole states like LA and FL which had the bulk of the nursing home disasters last year.  For instance, NC requires 5 days of food; she has 2 weeks.  NC requires generators to be able to handle minimal equipment for 72hrs; she can go full power for 72 hrs. She also participates in a voluntary OSHA program.

>very level, even tempered

Thanks. She's sharp and cuts to the chase.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Brad on September 13, 2018, 07:23:38 PM
>media

If it bleeds it leads.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: ergophobe on September 13, 2018, 07:39:46 PM
Agreed. Except I'm grooming her for CEO.

And experience counts. I've had very little experience and had even less when I was 22 and my uncle was taken hostage in Beirut. My dad, who had lots of experience as a university athletic director, fared much better in his media encounters, which is to say, the media learned nothing. As a naive 22 year-old, I thought I had told them nothing... until I read USA Today the following day. Oops. Lesson learned.

Bonnie did a great job, though, as did the other administrators and, for that matter, the residents, who were charming and who gave great endorsement for the staff. That ended up being a really nice piece for the facility. I don't think their PR firm would have done half as well even if they had full editorial control. It was authentic (where the PR firm would have failed) and reflected very well on the facility and its people.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Drastic on September 14, 2018, 02:04:58 PM
rc, how you faring over there?
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 14, 2018, 02:20:57 PM
Doing fine. Highest winds around 40mph. No storm surge in the river. It's been kinda dry, less than an inch of rain over the last 24hrs. 

A couple of our riverfront sister towns about 80 miles south of us aren't doing as well. New Bern, NC reportedly has 8-10 feet of surge. Washington, NC twitter vid shows about 8 feet.  These towns are located at the narrows of their large rivers and the wind direction was just right to drive the water upstream.

Bonnie reports (8am) that everything is going ok at the nursing home.  According to tracking, Florence's eye made landfall directly in her neighborhood.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Mackin USA on September 14, 2018, 05:49:49 PM
POOR PEOPLE IN NEW BERN

SAD
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: grnidone on September 14, 2018, 08:27:05 PM
>Man, we sure don't build houses like we used to.

Or cars.  That Chevy didn't move an inch from where it was parked.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Drastic on September 14, 2018, 09:58:13 PM
>Doing fine. Highest winds around 40mph. No storm surge in the river. It's been kinda dry, less than an inch of rain over the last 24hrs. 

Glad to hear. You looked pretty good on radar.

>new bern
took it on the chin
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: littleman on September 15, 2018, 03:08:46 AM
You all still doing alright?
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Brad on September 15, 2018, 03:52:09 AM
All the pickup trucks have been moved to higher ground.  All the wives are still on low ground. 
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Travoli on September 15, 2018, 04:10:30 AM
Everything is fine here. Was very mild, luckily. But I have a feeling we're going to have some customers drop out this season.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: ukgimp on September 15, 2018, 08:37:07 AM
I did find this amusing

https://twitter.com/gktfo/status/1040880413827317760?s=21
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Mackin USA on September 15, 2018, 11:05:07 AM
Can we trust any news network these days?

PS: all is well at the Mackin CASA in the Woods
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 15, 2018, 03:12:18 PM
Oceanfront gets the immediate media attention but it's really the interior that gets the wide infrastructure damage.

New Bern is 30 miles inland.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/north-carolina/articles/2018-09-15/the-water-kept-rising-residents-overwhelmed-by-flooding

https://www.google.com/maps/place/New+Bern,+NC/

BTW, I-40 west of Wilmington and I-95 at Dunn are closed due to flooding.

> the Mackin CASA

That deep ravine behind your house should be beneficial but needs watching.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Drastic on September 15, 2018, 05:36:54 PM
You still good Mackin?

Edge reaches here shortly. Preparations have been made:
https://imgur.com/a/1xijPXo
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Mackin USA on September 15, 2018, 06:41:59 PM
Thanks DRAS
Love that dude with the flag
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Mackin USA on September 15, 2018, 06:46:03 PM
RC
"That deep ravine behind your house should be beneficial but needs watching."

Just our private "wetlands"

Creek overflowedd for the first time this year. NO BIGGY
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 15, 2018, 09:11:59 PM
You ain't had 23 inches of rain a day yet.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 15, 2018, 09:31:19 PM
Swansboro is reporting nearly 3 feet of rain.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: buckworks on September 15, 2018, 10:43:01 PM
>>  nearly 3 feet of rain.

Instant lake.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 15, 2018, 11:07:13 PM
>lake

Right. Go outside and imagine 3 feet of water standing as far as the eye can see.  Then imagine ALL of it running to the low spots.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: littleman on September 16, 2018, 04:58:27 AM
Wilmington (http://www.starnewsonline.com/photogallery/NC/20180915/NEWS/915009982/PH/1?start=2)
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 16, 2018, 12:54:31 PM
Remember the river down the street from the last CoreCon? It's expected to crest about 45 (13.7m) feet above flood level.

>Mackin casa
>Drastic casa

The path of torrential rains in projected to go between Raleigh and Charlotte to exit into VA/WV/TN quadrant.  Looks like they'll dodge a bullet.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 16, 2018, 01:08:58 PM
<added>

River here is up about 2.5 feet (.76m). This is a wind-driven tide, not rain.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: ergophobe on September 16, 2018, 06:15:06 PM
Swansboro is reporting nearly 3 feet of rain.

That is mind-boggling. I can't imagine. Three feet of snow, sure, but that's only the equivalent of about 4 inches of rain
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: littleman on September 17, 2018, 01:07:45 AM
Waffle House Stays Open and Slashes Prices During Hurricanes (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/waffle-house-stays-open-slashes-135527205.html)
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 17, 2018, 01:56:43 AM
Wilmington and many other NC communities (some inland) are now islands --no road access.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Rumbas on September 17, 2018, 07:25:13 AM
Well, at least Waffle House is open for business.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Brad on September 17, 2018, 10:42:04 AM
I got an email from a friend in Fayetteville, NC: 11 inches of rain, trees have come down taking out power.  They have been on natural gas powered generator for a couple of days.  But generally all is well.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Mackin USA on September 17, 2018, 10:54:13 AM
SOME of y'all who attended CoreCon in Wilmington may have traveled I-40 from Raleigh

NOT an easy drive today!

ADDED
https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/09/14/what-is-the-waffle-house-index
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Mackin USA on September 17, 2018, 06:44:38 PM
COOL MAP from Ruth Ann

https://fiman.nc.gov/fiman/Map.aspx
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: ergophobe on September 17, 2018, 08:00:40 PM
I-40 from Raleigh

The chicken coops or whatever that is make me wonder what the evacuation plan is for animals. Here we have evac centers for cattle and horses during fires, but typically people only need to trailer them 10-20 miles, which is bad enough. What do farmers do there during an event like this?
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 17, 2018, 11:44:22 PM
>animals

HHH! EG, this is NC. We slaughter more animals in a day than Cali wants to hear about.  Last I heard, there were 5 million pigs here (roughly the same as the population of Denmark).  Many, if not most, of those are located in the devastated area.

Teasing aside, on the coast (particularly where many of the industrial farms are located) there is no reasonably nearby high ground. We are dead flat.  Ever been to Netherlands and been to the bottom lands there? That felt like home to me.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 18, 2018, 12:08:32 AM
<added>

Update: now 9 million pigs

What's Worse Than Floodwater? Contaminated Floodwater With Dead Pigs Floating in It.

https://www.indyweek.com/news/archives/2018/09/14/whats-worse-than-floodwater-contaminated-floodwater-with-dead-pigs-floating-in-it


Quote
The bloated carcasses of hundreds of thousands of hogs, chickens and other drowned livestock bobbed in a nose-stinging soup of fecal matter, pesticides, fertilizer and gasoline so toxic that fish flopped helplessly on the surface to escape it. Rescue workers smeared Vick's Vapo-Rub under their noses to try to numb their senses against the stench.

Florence is forecast to make landfall in the same region as a much stronger storm.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-florence-flood-hog-manure-pits-coal-ash-dumps-north-carolina/


Oh RC, nowhere is as flat as you say!

See below. Current drone photo.




Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: ergophobe on September 18, 2018, 03:20:45 AM
EG, this is NC. We slaughter more animals in a day than Cali wants to hear about.   Last I heard, there were 5 million pigs here

Perhaps so, but California has over 5 million cattle to NC's 800,000 and this is rangeland around here. So there's a lot of cattle to move here during a fire. I expect the feedlots don't have an issue, because everything around a feedlot is dead.

Quote
Teasing aside, on the coast (particularly where many of the industrial farms are located) there is no reasonably nearby high ground.

Right, so what do they do? In that photo, the barns or coops or whatever they were were underwater. Do farmers just lose all their animals or is there an evacuation plan for the animals. I just ask, because that's always part of the evac here. Otherwise, farmers could be ruined.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 18, 2018, 11:38:38 AM
Millions of chickens drown in Florence floodwaters, manure pits damaged | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-florence-food/millions-of-chickens-drown-in-florence-floodwaters-manure-pits-damaged-idUSKCN1LX2J2

>cattle

You can herd cattle. Pigs & chickens  ...not so much.

You pose a good question.  I'm pretty sure that they just take the loss, but that's just based on what I *haven't* seen or heard over the years.  I'm modestly familiar with industrial poultry farms (friends with one owner) and I'm pretty sure there is nothing they can do to gather & move 50,000+ birds.

BTW, the Smithfield/Gwaltney plant near the place where I-95 is currently flooded slaughters 30,000 hogs per day. Hyde county, which is pictured in that flatland photo above, has one egg farm that produces 2 million+ eggs per day. This gives an idea of the mind-boggling scale of these operations.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: grnidone on September 18, 2018, 01:21:19 PM
RC:  where are you staying right now?
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 18, 2018, 01:30:17 PM
I'm at home and stayed here as the storm passed.  The top northeast corner of NC was only slightly affected with minor flooding. Wind damage was very sparse here, too.  Yesterday, for a medical appointment, I drove about 70 miles southwest to the very edge of the hard-hit area (Washington, NC mentioned somewhere above) without any problems, but from that point south and inland all hell has broken loose.

<added>
That flooded farm pictured above is 45 miles due south of my house.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 19, 2018, 12:16:55 AM
>good question

Found something re pigs.

Quote
The N.C. Pork Council says some hogs also may have died when farms flooded, but that mortality figures are not yet available. The pork industry trade group says farmers have been working before and after the storm to move at-risk animals to higher ground. The industry lost about 2,800 hogs during flooding from Hurricane Matthew in 2016.

1.7 Million Chickens Drown as NC Rivers Swollen by Florence
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/north-carolina/articles/2018-09-18/17-million-chickens-drown-as-nc-rivers-swollen-by-florence

In another article, there was one sentence saying that the state had been working with farms since Matthew to better build/prepare for floods.  It may not be related to that revised building code, but I've noticed in several photos that the hog parlors are built on a berm, giving them an additional 2 or 3 feet of elevation. When the surrounding area is low, 3 feet might just be enough in most cases.

>1.7 Million Chickens

Chickens, OTOH....
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: ergophobe on September 19, 2018, 05:02:42 AM
OK... so hogs get roughly the treatment cattle get here, but chickens are luckier.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 19, 2018, 12:14:22 PM
This just in:

Florence kills 3.4 million chickens, 5,500 pigs in NC. The numbers are expected to rise.
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article218610365.html
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on September 20, 2018, 12:57:09 AM
Preliminary Hurricane Florence NC rainfall totals
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on October 07, 2018, 03:35:27 PM
>Camille

See what I mean?

I'm tired of hearing about how the coast is so at risk from hurricanes when the most widespread, costliest damage is in the interior.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: littleman on October 10, 2018, 09:14:38 PM
Hurricane Michael is so bad that Waffle House has already closed 18 restaurants! (https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/nation-now/2018/10/10/hurricane-michael-waffle-house-closed/1588278002/)
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on October 10, 2018, 09:31:44 PM
I'm guessing Georgia will take the brunt of it.
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: rcjordan on October 11, 2018, 05:29:57 PM
 Story smells a bit of disaster hype

Hurricane Michael: In Southwest Georgia, a trail of devastation

https://www.ajc.com/news/just-first-death-from-hurricane-michael-confirmed-georgia/bXtpzT44sXZbGrkykJy7DJ/
Title: Re: Gonna have a breeze
Post by: Travoli on October 11, 2018, 05:49:27 PM
Looks like Mexico Beach was hit hard.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/drone-footage-shows-decimated-michael-ravaged-mexico-beach-florida-n919061