Author Topic: How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond  (Read 1083 times)

Rupert

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How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
« on: October 02, 2020, 07:03:05 AM »
I don't hear many voices saying what the long game is.  In the UK, the politicians keep talking about a vaccine, but the medical folk I know, tend to think that unlikely, and at best it will be 70% effective when it comes.

This is quite an old article now :
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02278-5 (early August)

I hear of students over here wanting to get the Virus, on the basis then they will be able to go home at Christmas. There is a tiredness to the massive damage being done to almost every corner of the economy. Students over in the UK, are boing isolated in groups of 6, locked down in halls, and having to have lectures online. They would be better off joining the Army... except the Army does not seem to be recruiting at present.

I do think it is here to stay, and it WILL run through the population. I was wondering what the average age of death is, we know that people tend to be older, but the raw figure seems difficult to find.

Brazil seems to be struggling medically letting it run through uncontrolled in the population, but India seems to be fairing better but is it the age/population/wealth or just bad data? all these things I think help us to look into the future, but no one seems to be putting their neck on the line and predicting yet.

I am starting to form the view that the young need to get on with life to cope with it, and the old need to take themselves out of circulation for a while, to give the young a chance to build the economy and pay for the future NHS etc. Otherwise, there will be no NHS (or medical equivalent)

Thoughts?


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Chunkford

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Re: How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2020, 12:12:35 PM »
I always said from the start we should have identified the most vulnerable, protected them and told the rest to carry on.

As far I know (I could be wrong) but there are no cures for any viruses.
HIV is still about, the flu is still about to name a couple, and it's only because we train our own immune systems to fight them by evolution or nudging it along using dumb down versions of the virus that we surive.
Yes, there will be fall out, but I can't see any other way to proceed from this.
You just have to see how the population are getting lockdown fever to know that it can't carry on.
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Chunkford

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Re: How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2020, 12:16:26 PM »
And when I say for the rest to carry on, I mean with guidance as in wearing face masks, washing your hands more often and generally improving people's hygiene which has been one good thing that's come from this.
"If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions"

rcjordan

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Re: How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2020, 01:27:33 PM »
There is no doubt that pandemic fatigue has set in.  Most are in denial as to how long this will likely drag on.  Fauci has been trying to gently give us a reality check, but we're not listening.

Fauci cautions that things won’t return to ‘normal’ until end of 2021
https://cbs4indy.com/news/coronavirus/fauci-cautions-that-things-wont-return-to-normal-until-end-of-2021/

Rupert

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Re: How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2020, 05:00:05 PM »
Ok doing a bit of analysis of rough data, the average age of death in the UK in 2017 was 81.16. In the USA 78.54
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=average+age+of+death+in+uk

By taking the age ranges of death in the UK from CV, and assuming that 45-64 is 55 years old, then the average age of people dying from CV in the UK is 79.8 I am not sure it is statistically different. At worst it is taking 1.4 years off our lives. I know it is rough and ready, but does that feel right?

It seems to me parts of the USA have decided to let it run hot. (with hands/face/space).  I am not sure the UK is there yet.
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ergophobe

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Re: How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2020, 05:47:18 PM »
>>At worst it is taking 1.4 years off our lives.

And that is the problem with looking at things in terms of averages :-)

To do an extreme thought experiment, let's say that we came up with a miracle anti-aging drug. If you inject it, it adds 8.1 healthy, active, productive years to your life, roughly 10%. The problem is, it kills 10% of patients instantly, taking an average of 48.6 years off their lives. On average, that drug adds 2.4 active years to your life by my possibly faulty math

((90*8.1) - (10*48.6))/100

So on average, it's a good thing, but I'm not letting them stick that needle in my arm.

Chunkford

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Re: How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2020, 05:54:27 PM »
> I'm not letting them stick that needle in my arm.

I certainly don't want to be a guinea pig for a vaccine that's been rushed through.

Who here will go first?
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ergophobe

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Re: How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2020, 08:04:43 PM »
>>vaccine

that was in my mind while doing my math.

Honestly, it's a moot point for me. I am not a healthcare worker or high risk, so I won't be first in line even if I desperately want to be.

What's interesting is some of my doctor friends feel the same way. They've made it this far without getting Covid or, in one case, has gotten Covid and is not back to normal, so they are not interested in being part of a mass experiment on a product rushed through under intense political pressure.

Rupert

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Re: How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2020, 06:22:21 AM »
I think we spend too much time together :)

I do miss a good party. When will we be able to have the music loud and dance again. I think I will plan a playlist and set a date with Sue tonight.
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rcjordan

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Re: How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2020, 06:16:11 PM »
One-in-four Albertans would not take coronavirus vaccine: Poll | Calgary Herald
https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/one-in-four-albertans-would-not-get-coronavirus-vaccine-poll

rcjordan

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Re: How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2020, 01:26:51 PM »
Charts and more charts

Coronavirus trend: The pandemic is far from over
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-global-pandemic-trend/a-53954594

ergophobe

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Re: How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2020, 01:00:26 AM »
>>Thoughts?

We (and I'm not really sure who I mean by that, but definitely Americans) have become a fearful people in general. We keep optimizing risk out of our lives. I think of all the changes in my life: seatbelts, helmets, airbags, tamper-proof packaging, children carefully supervised, police in the schools, endless rules at ski areas, huge limitations on the freedom of children compared to my childhood.

Battle of Verdun resulted in 700,000 casualties and 300,000 deaths. In the Battle of the Somme, the British alone had roughly 20,000 deaths in the single worst day of combat. Between 150,000 and 250,000 people died in the Battle of Okinawa in WWII (and though the Western Allies were not involved, they did follow the Battle of Stalingrad with its staggering two million casualties).

Obviously these things are horrible and tragic. The waste of human life for a small bit of ground or because they couldn't be bothered to buckle a seatbelt is tragic.

But at the same time, I find it odd that some extreme helmet advocates have almost implied that I am mentally unstable for riding a bike or skiing without a helmet. It is not that long ago that almost nobody wore a helmet for either of those activities.

I can't really quite grope my way to a coherent though here, but I feel that our risk tolerance as a society has perhaps become too low. I also think it's part of the split between the haves and have nots. The obsessive helmet wearers are mostly haves, while the have nots still face all sorts of systemic risk on their jobs and in their environment (smoking is now essentially a habit of the have nots and nutrition is dramatically poorer among the have nots, both of which carry more risk than occasionally tooling around town on a bike without a helmet).

I'm not exactly sure how that constitutes any sort of reply to your question about whether or not the young should get on with their lives. I guess it boils down to this - in past times, the level of risk required for the young to get on with their lives would be considered minor in relation to the overall risks they were taking just through normal living. But as we have progressively removed one bit of risk after another and, perhaps, as families have moved to putting all their bets on one or maybe two kids, the tolerance for young people taking risk has decreased to the point where it impacts their ability to live fulfilling lives.

Those are thoughts I had before Covid, but since Covid, they keep rattling around my brain.

Rupert

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Re: How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2020, 06:10:05 AM »
Goodness.  good answers.
A part summary:

  • Its far from over.
  • No one wants to test the Vaccine
  • We are getting risk averse.
  • We bet our futures on fewer kids

I think they are all interting points, and put together make me realise the depth of the complexity with this. Usually trial medicine is tested slowly, and perhaps we will see this being tested forst on the poorer member of society.  That is a scarely idea but seems plausable. It will be sold differently of course.
Initially I had no worried about a vaccine, but I spend too much time here, so have thought more about it.  :)The risk is probably quite low, and it would help get society going again, so it seems a reasonable thing to do. Perhaps we will have to be paid? students would do it.

The number of people I meet who won't have the app on their phone for the purely selfish reason of not wanting to be told to self isolate, stuns me.

I think the young are itching to get going. Its the oldies that are holding them back.  Again, not sure what that all means, but it goes in the pot.


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ergophobe

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Re: How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2020, 11:52:59 PM »
This might play into how you think about this

https://www.economist.com/international/2020/10/05/will-the-economic-and-psychological-costs-of-covid-19-increase-suicides

Will the economic and psychological costs of covid-19 increase suicides?
It is too early to say, but the signs are ominous

>>getting risk averse

That's something that, over my life, I have seen progressively curtail some of my freedoms since, as a younger person, I rather enjoyed relatively dangerous activities. But it's not just that we are risk averse, it's that for the first time in human history, in the last... maybe 80 years??... we have come to think of death as an affliction of the old. That is new in human history. Indeed, for most of human history, the vast, vast majority of people died before the age of 10. Death was primarily an affliction of the young, and then things evened out.

But it was a commonplace of medieval and early-modern wills that "nothing is more certain than death and nothing less certain than the hour of our death." The great essayist Michel de Montaigne (who in fact invented the word essay in the sense we mean it now), commented that nothing hurts more than the death of a child, but, he added, he had lost two children without falling into despair.

Again, I'm not saying that a world where large numbers of children die is a good place. On balance, it's better to be in a world where most children survive. But it does work on our psyches and create a view toward risk and death that is utterly unlike the view that was held for the previous 500,000 years of human history.

We have reached a point where we have the expectation that in most cases, we can control the deaths of the young, and therefore we have come to find them unacceptable, perhaps more so than the young themselves.

Rupert

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Re: How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2020, 05:42:36 AM »
Tom, thanks.. I have shared that with Lucy.
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