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Author Topic: Hurricane Irma  (Read 1268 times)
drcool
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« on: September 03, 2017, 02:08:38 AM »

What are you thinking about this one RC? Some models have it hitting here in FL, some have it moving farther north, and some have it just staying out to sea.
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rcjordan
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« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2017, 02:13:34 AM »

It's on the general track that tends to hit the southeast.

This map updates at 11pm --make note of the last green dot then see which way it moves after the update.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_pos_nt1.html
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rcjordan
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« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2017, 02:17:46 AM »

<added>

Vortex updates at 5am/11am/5pm/11pm.  Over the years, it has proven to be the best track projection.

Chart to convert zulu time here
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/hurricanes/zulu-utc.html
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rcjordan
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« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2017, 02:23:19 AM »

<added2>

In practice, they update the map approx 5-10 minuted before the hour. So, before the update open the map in one window and keep it open. After the update, open it in another window, then you can compare the two for subtle shifts in projected direction.
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rcjordan
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« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2017, 01:28:19 PM »

Projections ticked to the west this morning. I'd advise spending Sunday clearing loose gear and summer toys out of your yard.  Just a precaution.
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rcjordan
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« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2017, 03:02:24 PM »

Another tick to the west at 11am. Ugh.
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drcool
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« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2017, 05:23:57 PM »

Yeah, I am going to start the early preparations. Not liking the way this is tracking.
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rcjordan
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« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2017, 06:16:18 PM »

Since there's already a minor fuel shortage problem, I'll tank up all vehicles by Tuesday and try to keep them topped up before the masses go nuts.

Working on yard stuff now.
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rcjordan
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« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2017, 09:02:31 PM »

Making a straight line for Miami.  BUT there's usually a northward hook as it gets close to the southeastern seaboard.   Currently Cat 3. Cat 4 when it crosses the carib islands.  If that holds, somebody is in for a rough time.
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DogBoy
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« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2017, 05:04:07 PM »

>somebody

<enter, stage left>

 Grin
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rcjordan
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« Reply #10 on: September 04, 2017, 05:25:23 PM »

If it keeps ticking westward, we all might be in the clear.  (Sorry about the Gulf coast, though... )

Keep using The Force, DB.
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rcjordan
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« Reply #11 on: September 04, 2017, 05:27:20 PM »

<added>

Looks like Cuba is going to get raked by Cat 4.
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rcjordan
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« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2017, 05:37:58 PM »

<added 2>
I'm playing with some longer range forecast models that I think are really too far out there to be trusted.  But right now they show the eye raking the north side of Cuba until it gets about halfway down the island. Then Irma turns sharply north x northeast and the eye is about 40-50 miles off Fort L as it heads for Myrtle Beach landfall.

I think this is just too far out to bank on, but I'm logging it here to see how it will compare to the actual track.

<added3>
Off Fort L at 5pm Sunday
« Last Edit: September 04, 2017, 05:40:25 PM by rcjordan » Logged
drcool
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« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2017, 06:04:24 PM »

>I think this is just too far out to bank on, but I'm logging it here to see how it will compare to the actual track

Yeah, that is what it seems like will happen. Kind of just depends on how far west it goes before turning North.
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DogBoy
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« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2017, 06:46:41 PM »

I got water yesterday, but I'm preparing the truck for extended car camping; plan to wait around until we have a better handle on where this is going, but 'offshore' sounds fantastic to me. 
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