The Core
Why We Are Here => Water Cooler => Topic started by: DrCool on September 03, 2017, 02:08:38 AM
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What are you thinking about this one RC? Some models have it hitting here in FL, some have it moving farther north, and some have it just staying out to sea.
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It's on the general track that tends to hit the southeast.
This map updates at 11pm --make note of the last green dot then see which way it moves after the update.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_pos_nt1.html
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<added>
Vortex updates at 5am/11am/5pm/11pm. Over the years, it has proven to be the best track projection.
Chart to convert zulu time here
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/hurricanes/zulu-utc.html
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<added2>
In practice, they update the map approx 5-10 minuted before the hour. So, before the update open the map in one window and keep it open. After the update, open it in another window, then you can compare the two for subtle shifts in projected direction.
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Projections ticked to the west this morning. I'd advise spending Sunday clearing loose gear and summer toys out of your yard. Just a precaution.
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Another tick to the west at 11am. Ugh.
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Yeah, I am going to start the early preparations. Not liking the way this is tracking.
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Since there's already a minor fuel shortage problem, I'll tank up all vehicles by Tuesday and try to keep them topped up before the masses go nuts.
Working on yard stuff now.
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Making a straight line for Miami. BUT there's usually a northward hook as it gets close to the southeastern seaboard. Currently Cat 3. Cat 4 when it crosses the carib islands. If that holds, somebody is in for a rough time.
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>somebody
<enter, stage left>
;D
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If it keeps ticking westward, we all might be in the clear. (Sorry about the Gulf coast, though... )
Keep using The Force, DB.
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<added>
Looks like Cuba is going to get raked by Cat 4.
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<added 2>
I'm playing with some longer range forecast models that I think are really too far out there to be trusted. But right now they show the eye raking the north side of Cuba until it gets about halfway down the island. Then Irma turns sharply north x northeast and the eye is about 40-50 miles off Fort L as it heads for Myrtle Beach landfall.
I think this is just too far out to bank on, but I'm logging it here to see how it will compare to the actual track.
<added3>
Off Fort L at 5pm Sunday
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>I think this is just too far out to bank on, but I'm logging it here to see how it will compare to the actual track
Yeah, that is what it seems like will happen. Kind of just depends on how far west it goes before turning North.
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I got water yesterday, but I'm preparing the truck for extended car camping; plan to wait around until we have a better handle on where this is going, but 'offshore' sounds fantastic to me.
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My sketchy, longer-term models match up with Vortex, but Vortex currently (04/11am EDT) only goes as far as mid-Cuba --the last green dot is about where Irma turns N-NE. By 5 or 11 pm, we should see a green dot heading north-ish if the sketchy models are right.
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Oh yeah, and the long-term shows yet another tropical storm or hurricane roughly following in Irma's track --looks like 4 or 5 days behind it. No forecasted wind speeds available for that one that I can find yet.
Hoo boy!
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Publix already out of water.
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KWEL SITE
http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
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Hurricane Irma now powerful Category 5 storm
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/09/05/hurricane-irma-now-powerful-category-5-storm-florida-declares-state-emergency.html
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>spaghettimodels
Nice find. Bookmarked.
My long-term track guidance is now showing it plowing up the center of Florida. *BUT* these have changed with every 12hr update as Irma moves further west into the Gulf. Definitely sketchy. The only thing that's been consistent is the northward hook.
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>plowing up the center of Florida
That bright green line is problematic.
Other than that if it goes all the way up through Florida like this I would assume the storm would lose some of its steam by the time it got up to us. Probably still a lot of rain but the wind wouldn't necessarily be as destructive. Am i just fooling myself?
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Yes, since large bodies of hot water fuels them, they lose power over land.
>rain
I've not heard of any 'feeder bands' like Harvey had associated with Irma so far, so I wouldn't expect the 50" rainfalls. Probably 15-ish, but that's just a guess.
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<added>
>>these have changed with every 12hr update as Irma moves further west into the Gulf
> large bodies of hot water fuels them
One more tick to the west and Tampa-St. Pete is f###ed. IMO, it'd then be a reasonable scenario for a Cat 5 to make landfall there.
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Northern hook shown on 11am Vortex. Good-bye FL keys.
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>Northern hook shown on 11am Vortex. Good-bye FL keys.
Guessing Napels-Ft. Meyers are getting hammered too.
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Looks like this could follow the same path as Charley once it hits Florida. Land around Ft. Meyers, head up just east of Orlando and hit the ocean around Palm Coast or St. Augustine.
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>Ft. Meyers
Ft. Meyers has drainage problems if they have a heavy dew. No telling what'll happen if they get a monsoon. The dike around Lake Okeechobee would be another big issue, I'd think.
1928 storm smashed dike, drowned nearly 2,000 near Lake Okeechobee
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sns-hc-history-1928-story.html
We tend to think about destruction of buildings & infrastructure. What most people don't realize is that storms of this magnitude _particularly slow-moving ones_ have the potential to change landforms. Islands come & go at their whim, for example. Just north of where Trav lives, there is a large peninsula called "Willoughby Spit." It was formed by a hurricane. Never ceases to strike me with fearful awe every time I go through there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willoughby_Spit
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(http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_plot_nt1.gif)
And we are back to the East side of the state. Would like this to make another tick East. Looking a bit too close for comfort. Miami/FLL isn't looking good right now.
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I'm about 100 yards East of the 's' on Port Everglades.
Mandatory evacuation, all around me; everyone East of US1 is supposed to get out on Thursday.
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My long term track is showing a little more eastward than Vortex. We need all the eastward we can get.
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goog luck DB.
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Man, we have a lot of the Core potentially in the path. Good luck guys.
>Mandatory evacuation
Might be a good idea to get out early?
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>Might be a good idea to get out early?
Hopefully they can find GAS
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Good luck everyone. Keep safe.
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My current best guess as to track
Landfall [1] Miami Beach FL: 10am Sunday
Fort Laud FL: 2pm Sunday
Goes Offshore at Titusville FL: 5am Monday
Landfall [2] at Savannah, 6pm Monday
Augusta, GA 2am Tuesday
Starts to die out over Greenville, SC 7am Tuesday
Knoxville, TN Noon Tuesday
Dying hurricane cause flooding and tree problems in the hilly & mountain areas. Hurricane Camille1969 was particularly devastating in the foothills of Virginia. Well over 100 dead from flash floods.
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>My current best guess
Seems pretty accurate. My firefighter brothers-in-law in the Hilton Head area are getting ready for a hit up there. If it is above category 3 (don't think it will be) they have to evacuate too.
Still tracking 50-70 miles off shore here so other than a lot of wind (probably 50-70 mph) and rain we should be fine.
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Debbie says we're going to see another tick to the east, possibly skirting all of Florida and the first landfall about half-way between Savannah and Charleston. But that's just Debbie (and NOAA's primary supercomputer model, which is one of the tracks blended into the official forecast)
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I just saw a 3:00 update that showed it heading a bit more to the West. So skirting right up the coast and coming directly over Jacksonville. Hopefully at the 5:00 updates it will show it back to the East.
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>heading a bit more to the West
Yeah, the long-term tracks are consolidating --all pretty much running along the FL coast then over water until Savannah.
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Everything I'm seeing still shows the eye slightly offshore as it passes Jax.
Back when you lived is WA, I'll bet you never thought you'd one day be clinging to the 5/11 updates on Vortex, eh, Doc?
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SoFl high ground...
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>Everything I'm seeing still shows the eye slightly offshore as it passes Jax.
Except one. It has gone back to plowing straight up the middle of FL, then hooking to the west as it's dying in GA.
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>Except one. It has gone back to plowing straight up the middle of FL, then hooking to the west as it's dying in GA.
Now Vortex has aligned with this L-T forecast. Interesting. ...And maybe good news for DB & Doc.
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I just felt the first blast of wind.
The photo is a good summary of our status report, regarding our departure.
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Ok, I taped the westward facing impact windows.
On the eastward facing side I shut the shutters, and we have 18' of hurricane glass doors.
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http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/09/watch_irma_florida_web_cams.html
first few:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45pUueQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaErEed7UPI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45pUueQ
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L-T tracks are now showing the eye missing the tip of FL completely and coming ashore at Sarasota. Another tick to the west and this thing might plow into the panhandle.
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Just got dark outside and the winds are strong.
Hoping this things blows right by us.
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Last I read, Irma is about 800 miles in diameter. Even if it goes up the west coast, I'd think you're going to get at least tropical storm winds, maybe even Cat 1.
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>tropical storm winds, maybe even Cat 1
That is what we are planning for here. 8-12 inches of rain is what they are predicting and maybe 2-4 feet of storm surge. That storm surge shouldn't do any significant damage up here.
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Also just heard that the Waffle House out at the beach will stay open.
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..
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All the best everyone!
Brace yourselves
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-is-literally-sucking-the-water-away-from-shorelines/
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>sucking water
Yeah, that's where some of the water for the surge comes from. I've seen our 3-mile-wide river's water level change 4 feet in 15 minutes as one hurricane passed. Besides wind speed, speed along the track makes a big difference here. Slow-moving ones like Irma have time to pull in more water.
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There's nothing left': British Virgin Islands
https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2017/sep/10/theres-nothing-left-british-virgin-islands-devastated-by-hurricane-irma-video
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double tornado!!
https://www.facebook.com/104523943008730/videos/1287141834746929/?hc_ref=ARTw8upKFpPfx5k9cXhlIipzPzQ2EEveADb9S4jyFiD8HgLlemrVL0r1DVJ6LHFinUA
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Buckworks, you OK? Anyone heard?
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I'm fine. We've been on holiday in Wisconsin, Iowa, and now South Dakota. Normal September prairie weather, I'd say.
I'm saying prayers for my friends who are closer to Irma.
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>Normal September prairie weather
Bleak, cold, apocalyptic vistas. hhh
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6:20 p.m.
The National Hurricane Center reports water levels are rising rapidly in Naples from Hurricane Irma's storm surge. A federal tide gauge in Naples reported a 7 foot rise of water in just 90 minutes.
A wind gust of 142 mph (229 kph) was recorded at the Naples Municipal Airport as the storm kept its top sustained wind speed of 110 mph (175 kph).
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Tampa Bay at midnight. IMO, they'll be lucky if they get only a 7 ft surge.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/tampa-bay-may-escape-the-worst-of-its-nightmare-scenario/2017/09/10/f3be3754-95cf-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html
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>> Bleak, cold, apocalyptic vistas. hhh
The outside temp when we came in from the car was 90 F.
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Oh yeah, I forgot about the western heat wave. Been unseasonably cool and extra wet here since late July.
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A phew! Looked at your post count and worried! Happy to hear you are OK.
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At least 32 looters are arrested across Florida during Irma crime spree: Thieves prompt SWAT standoff after robbing a store for GUNS while others are caught on camera breaking into a sports shop
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4870676/Eight-looters-broke-Fort-Lauderdale-clothing-retailer.html#ixzz4sMwY7sE3
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Power Out For More Than 60 Percent Of Florida Homes And Businesses
http://www.npr.org/2017/09/11/550101223/power-out-for-more-than-60-percent-of-florida-homes-and-businesses
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We lost power around midnight. Probably 15 inches of rain in the last couple days. 11 inches yesterday. About 3 AM was our strongest winds. Guessing 50-60 mph with some 80 mph gusts.
There are quite a few trees down around town and the river is flooding. High tide is right now and they were expecting another couple of feet of flooding. Downtown the river was about a foot higher than the previous high.
Hopefully we get power restored soon but I am not hopeful. Winds have died down enough for crews to start working but there are a lot of people without power.
I did find a couple neighborhood's with power and at the Waffle House there were about 20 people lined up waiting to get in.
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On Sunday, the utility’s VP of communications, Rob Gould, told ABC that residents on the east coast could expect a standard post-storm restoration timeline, but that the west coast’s electrical grid would need a “wholesale rebuild.”
“This is going to be a very, very lengthy restoration, arguably the longest and most complex in U.S. history,” Gould said.
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/09/floridas-largest-utility-west-floridas-electrical-grid-will-need-a-wholesale-rebuild/539328/
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Hurricane Irma Meteorological Records/Notable Facts Recap pdf
https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Records.pdf
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FWIW, here's the wind speed log:
Aug 30/11am - 50 MPH
Aug 30/ 5pm - 60 MPH
Aug 31/11pm - 65 MPH
Aug 31/ 5am - 70 MPH
Aug 31/11am - 100 MPH Cat2
Aug 31/ 5pm - 115 MPH Cat3
Sep 01/11pm - 115 MPH Cat3
Sep 01/ 5am - 115 MPH Cat3
Sep 01/11am - 110 MPH Cat2
Sep 01/ 5pm - 120 MPH Cat3
Sep 02/11pm - 115 MPH Cat3
Sep 02/ 5am - 110 MPH Cat2
Sep 02/11am - 110 MPH Cat2
Sep 02/ 5pm - 110 MPH Cat2
Sep 03/11pm - 110 MPH Cat2
Sep 03/ 5am - 115 MPH Cat3
Sep 03/11am - 115 MPH Cat3
Sep 03/ 5pm - 115 MPH Cat3
Sep 04/11pm - 115 MPH Cat3
Sep 04/ 5am - 115 MPH Cat3
Sep 04/11am - 120 MPH Cat3
Sep 04/ 5pm - 130 MPH Cat4
Sep 05/11pm - 140 MPH Cat4
Sep 05/ 5am - 150 MPH Cat4
Sep 05/ 8am - 175 MPH Cat5
Sep 05/11am - 180 MPH Cat5
Sep 05/ 5pm - 185 MPH Cat5
Sep 06/11pm - 185 MPH Cat5
Sep 06/ 5am - 185 MPH Cat5
Sep 06/11am - 185 MPH Cat5
Sep 06/ 5pm - 185 MPH Cat5
Sep 07/11pm - 185 MPH Cat5
Sep 07/ 5am - 180 MPH Cat5
Sep 07/11am - 175 MPH Cat5
Sep 07/ 5pm - 175 MPH Cat5
Sep 08/11pm - 165 MPH Cat5
Sep 08/ 5am - 155 MPH Cat4
Sep 08/11am - 150 MPH Cat4
Sep 08/ 5pm - 155 MPH Cat4
Sep 09/11pm - 160 MPH Cat5
Sep 09/ 5am - 155 MPH Cat4
Sep 09/11am - 125 MPH Cat3
Sep 09/ 5pm - 125 MPH Cat3
Sep 10/11pm - 120 MPH Cat3
Sep 10/ 5am - 130 MPH Cat4
Sep 10/11am - 130 MPH Cat4
Sep 10/ 5pm - 110 MPH Cat2
Sep 11/11pm - 100 MPH Cat2
Sep 11/ 5am - 75 MPH Cat1
Sep 11/11am - 65 MPH
Sep 11/ 5pm - 50 MPH
Times = EDT
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We totally lucked out. I don't know what Fort Lauderdale recorded but we lost a lot of trees. No damage to the inside of my place or the building itself. Couple thousand in landscaping and we are good to go.
Feeling bad for the others that weren't so lucky.
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Good to hear from you, DB!
In a state built on air conditioning, millions of Florida residents now want to know one thing: When will the power be back on?
http://nypost.com/2017/09/12/florida-is-disgusting-sweaty-mess-with-little-hope-in-sight/
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Still no power here. Supposedly they started today with 260,000 in the city without power and now that number is down to 120,000. So hopefully tomorrow.
A friend who got power let us borrow their generator. We have the fridge plugged in, some fans running, and internet and TV. And it is nice to be able to charge up the phones. But no AC sucks. The heat isn't too bad but everything in the house is moist. Very humid the lasts couple days.
If I am still here in Florida next year I think I will invest in a generator of my own. That will pretty much guarantee I will never lose power again.
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Dumbasses running generators inside their homes are going to kill more people in FL than the hurricane did. From my reader headlines, I count 4 deaths and 7 hospitalized in just 2 days.
>buy
Ping me before you do.
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>>kill more people in FL than the hurricane did
I heard only 11 people died in the hurricane. My guess is there will be more deaths and injuries from people trying to clean up downed trees. I saw some Darwin award winners up on a roof yesterday with axes trying to chop through a big tree with people standing right below where the tree would roll down.
And there are a LOT of intersections with no lights that should be treated as 4 way stops but every time I go out I see someone barreling through them without even slowing down. And a friend of mine got rear ended when she stopped at one of these lights.
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>4
Now 5. at least five people died and more than a dozen were treated for breathing carbon monoxide fumes from generators in the Orlando, Miami and Daytona Beach areas.
I saw some of the first fatalities in the reader. IMO, they were stretching it in order to blame the hurricane. In the first one, the guy skidded his pickup truck into a tree. There were no known wind or limbs that caused it. The only thing that tied it into Irma was he was traveling to buy a generator. And 5 have died in a nursing home, apparently because of lack of air conditioning. Aside from the nursing home deaths, at least 13 people in Florida were killed in Irma-related circumstances, many of them well after the storm had passed. A Tampa man died after the chain saw he was using to remove branches kicked back and cut his carotid artery.
https://apnews.com/b01d27a86b644196ba7081f72eed88d8
>stoplights
I saw where the FL Emer Mgmt people said they need to instruct people on 4-way stops when a light is out. Good luck with that.
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>Darwin Awards
Nothing thins the herd faster than chainsaws in the hands of suburbanites.