Yet, it has painted itself into a corner with birth rates and immigration. I feel like something is going to have to change in the next few decades.
I think the horrors of the Japanese economy stories are told more to justify the horrors of other economies than because they represent actual horrors.
If you could choose between the following 2, which is better?
- declining population, shrinking economy, increasing lifespan, falling to flat asset prices, little to no inflation, roughly equivalent standard of living over time, stable wages, stable politics (Japan)
- rising population, growing economy but with asset prices which increase far faster than wages, a healthcare system that is ultimately an asset stripping scheme, and declining lifespan due to a loss of hope driving an opioid epidemic, increasing political radicalism (United States)
On an individual level for the creditor or financer maybe the second allows for more asset stripping and more extractive economic policies to boost profits on capital, but from an ordinary citizen perspective the first is a better deal.
There may be a lower ceiling in the first, but there is also a higher floor. Only a small fraction of people end up with significantly better than roughly average outcomes.
Not suggesting the rewards for successful outcomes should be done away with, but at some point societal cohesion breaks down.
https://twitter.com/Halsrethink/status/1038205879886270464"In a society characterized with extreme, growing wealth disparity, officially published "improvements" in average hourly earnings or rise in any other averages are deceptive. MSM embraces deception each time avg hrly earnings rise are said to be signs of improving economy"
Good points. I guess ideology could bind people together into nations as well in theory -- like they attempted to do in the Soviet Union.
Russia also has a declining population.
The US has only recovered less than half the loss in employment rate of the population from the last recession in a decade
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000The big demographic issue is not total population size but the ratio of people in the workforce relative to those who are retired or outside the formal workforce.
Almost all first world economies are moving into Japan-styled demographics where not only is fertility below replacement, but the ratio of retired people to working people keeps going up.
https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/number-workers-retiree-declines-worldwideMass immigration ultimately doesn't work to fix the problem unless the immigration is merit-based, because as people get left behind economically it is very easy to blame others who are consuming resources, which only makes politics that much more radical.
https://twitter.com/Halsrethink/status/1036625061611008001"In coming months several EU member state will defy Brussels, ECB, ECJ on immigration, budgets, debt relief, Euro, etc. Expect power & authority of EU Commission & ECJ to come into question. Deep divisions will appear. Germany will be divided. Inopportune moment to settle Brexit"
Japan is attempting a bit of a merit-based, err money-based, form of allowing immigration:
https://twitter.com/Halsrethink/status/1034077840067555329"Months ago I said Chinese families entering Japan in growing numbers, some buy 2nd résidences in Tokyo, more recently in Okinawa, Hokkaido,etc.,large numbers staying beyond visitor visas High Govt official told me "We are not monitoring. They bring big money to areas in need""
https://twitter.com/Halsrethink/status/1034079415339081728"A big Japanese real estate investors told me he heard many Chinese visitors refer to Okinawa as "China's Florida", near for family vacations, also short flight for wealthy families if there should be need to run"
https://twitter.com/Halsrethink/status/1034087969764782081"Not reading, talking directly to wealthy Japanese real estate investors & high govt officials & politicians I have known for years. Doubt there is much or even any public news about this. Followers know If I read something I usually provide link"
https://twitter.com/Halsrethink/status/1034211268972896257"You did not read carefully. I did not refer to a "buddy". I said high level source said "we are not monitoring" if you have done homework & aware I am not known for idle speculation you would have recognized I was suggesting this was uannounced"policy". Think what you wish."
If you are going to take a big wave of people into a country to make up for financial issues it is probably better to have wealthy people spending money into the economy than getting a bunch of people who are a resource drain, because the wealth flowing into the economy should improve domestic economics and spill over to fund internal social programs, whereas if people are coming in explicitly to use the social programs then the former middle class people who can't afford to have children have to work that much harder to not be able to afford to have kids. Very easy to see how people can be highly resentful of that sort of sequence & become more radical as they get squeezed.
The wealthy foreigners could of course create real estate bubbles and have other adverse impacts, but foreign real estate ownership can be taxed at different rates to help compensate for that impact.