Author Topic: I thought 0.54% was a pretty good start.  (Read 454 times)

rcjordan

  • I'm consulting the authorities on the subject
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15099
  • Debbie says...
    • View Profile
I thought 0.54% was a pretty good start.
« on: November 30, 2022, 03:19:49 PM »
Electric Vehicles Cut US Gas Consumption by a Measly 0.54% | WIRED

https://www.wired.com/story/american-evs-reduced-gasoline-consumption-by-just-0-54-in-2021/

ergophobe

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 8549
    • View Profile
Re: I thought 0.54% was a pretty good start.
« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2022, 04:36:00 PM »
Quote
In fact, BEV sales increased 92 percent to 457,000 vehicles in 2021

I think that will continue. I have noticed an interesting thing recently in our household.

First, we, and Theresa in particular, were bothered by range anxiety because EVs still are significantly less convenient on long trips. Then came the revelation that our total number of "long drive" days not in rental cars is quite low. Doubling those doesn't actually change things much.

Second, we realized that most of our trips are outside the range of a plugin-hybrid, but well within the range of a BEV.

Then, just recently, we noticed how much *gas* anxiety we have. In the vast majority of our trips, we do not pass a gas station. We recently went on a hike with the plan to fill up at the gas station that is about 30 miles from the house, but 1 mile from this particular trailhead. It turned out that the pumps were all out of order and we were basically on empty. So we now had to make a 35-minute round trip detour, not counting time at the actual pump, just to get gas.

We realized that if we were driving and EV, we would just drive home and plug it in.

For us, a significant number of trips each year are oriented around getting gas. These result in more inconvenience than the rare inconvenience of needing to charge while on long drives.

Of course, we are in a very rare situation. I doubt many Americans frequently take 10-30 mile trips and do not pass a gas station. But it has me wondering what the profit margins of a gas station are and how many can sustain, say, 15% of the cars on the road being EVs. My feeling is that at 20% EVs, gas stations start folding en masse, which puts more and more Americans in our situation, where an EV charge is super convenient and gas is very inconvenient.

Anyway, we frequently arrive at the gas station with the fuel warning light on and we frequently forgo trips because we do not have enough gas. Paying attention to that has shifted Theresa from an EV skeptic to being really annoyed at the constant quest to find gas for the car. Every time we go out of our way for gas, she thinks, "wouldn't it be great to have an EV?"

All that to say that I think EV adoption will reach a tipping point once gas stations start to fold in large numbers and more and more people are making our calculation. The challenge is needing to hit that tipping point as soon as possible.

rcjordan

  • I'm consulting the authorities on the subject
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15099
  • Debbie says...
    • View Profile
Re: I thought 0.54% was a pretty good start.
« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2022, 07:12:22 PM »
>wondering what the profit margins of a gas station are

On gasoline, very often a loss-leader or break even.  The money is in cigarettes, beer, & drinks (particularly fountain drinks & coffee).

ergophobe

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 8549
    • View Profile
Re: I thought 0.54% was a pretty good start.
« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2022, 11:40:54 PM »
I realize that gas is often a loss leader. And profit margin is the wrong term. I don't know the exact term, but effectively what I'm asking is how much marginal profit comes for the last X percent of customers and what value of X tips a store from black to red?

I have rarely stopped at a convenience store to buy something without also buying gas. I'm sure people do, but the gas is the loss leader. That is, without it to get people to pull of and exit the car, the whole rest of the model falls apart.

Also noted: In my rural neighborhood, I came to a 3-way intersection just now. Me, a Tesla SUV (the Y I think) and a Rivian pickup. The pace seems to be picking up fast, but I also think California is an outlier... not many EVs when we go to MN.

rcjordan

  • I'm consulting the authorities on the subject
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15099
  • Debbie says...
    • View Profile
Re: I thought 0.54% was a pretty good start.
« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2022, 12:22:37 AM »
>cigarettes, beer, & drinks (particularly fountain drinks & coffee

Debbie: If charging times are a half-hour or more, well-located convenience stores with a bank of chargers are going to make a fortune.  They also get to ditch the *very* heavy red tape required for having USTs (underground storage tanks) in the US as well as a pump & tank maintenance.

Brad

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 3923
  • What, me worry?
    • View Profile
Re: I thought 0.54% was a pretty good start.
« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2022, 12:42:17 AM »
>charging times are a half-hour

A local chain of gas/convenience stores is building a new flagship store in town.  Couple of new things it will have is 1. a sit down sandwich shop, 2. an automatic dog wash.  These new things are kinda designed to help you linger, like maybe a half-hour.

Just thinking out loud.