Author Topic: If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?  (Read 14902 times)

Drastic

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Re: If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?
« Reply #30 on: March 22, 2012, 04:21:51 PM »
Will do. Trying to get him to join here as well, you echo many things he's been saying about our financial situation. He's been saying them about 20 years.

If you get up this way, hit me up. I'm about 1.5 hours North on I-85 from Atlanta. Well, on the Ducati about 50 minutes.

DrasticDad

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Re: If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?
« Reply #31 on: March 22, 2012, 06:25:59 PM »
Lake chatuge would be good, more thought of by me as to being in NC, because the NC side is closer to us and not that far from Asheville. I don't really like being right on a lake for a SHTF scenario - to easy for an intruder to slip up on you by boat, any time day or night. If you were in a hollow surrounded by steep hills on three sides - you only have to defend the front.

My vote is for the thermal belt area of Western NC.  up around Rutherfordton, Marion, Spindale, Isothermal college in the thermal belt. buy something on a stream, has long growing season for the area, moderate winters, still only about an hour or so from Asheville, or GSP, little further to Charlotte.

The area should have low real estate prices, yet is close to modern hospitals, etc.

Dogbuy is thinking right, though - along western carolinas, NE ga, also possibly around Elizabethton, Tenn. or other places along the NC/Tenn border

Between robbinsville NC and and Maryville Tenn would also be good. could spend the weekend at http://www.snowbirdlodge.com/ and ride around, gorgeous. Joyce Kilmer National Forest. If you get over the border in Tenn, there is no state income tax.

Robbinsville is about as close to nowhere as you can get and still be in the southeast. Lake fontana is gorgeous, but mostly federal land. Robbinsville has like a dollar general and two fast food places and two gas stations, that or something like that.  Absolutely gorgeous area, IMO. Winters more harsh than the thermal belt.

The thermal belt is real, and winters are milder there.

BTW, don't know where the person asking this question is from - but these backwater places in the southeast can be a whole lot like stepping back in time. Might be a rude shock to someone not accustomed to small town, rural, mountain folks.

rcjordan

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Re: If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?
« Reply #32 on: March 22, 2012, 08:04:12 PM »
Check that area for drought, DB. Some of the counties in NC, TN, & GA have been so hard hit that they have had to truck in drinking water.

<added>
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?map_type=dryw&state=ga

<added2>

2008: Water Runs Dry in Orme, Tennessee as Drought Worsens
Orme is located 40 miles west of Chattanooga, 150 miles northwest of Atlanta, and a few miles north of the Alabama border.

http://www.naturalnews.com/023006_water_drought_natural_health.html
« Last Edit: March 22, 2012, 08:17:24 PM by rcjordan »

DrasticDad

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Re: If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?
« Reply #33 on: March 22, 2012, 09:31:39 PM »
I have absolutely no idea at all on what is being discussed here but I can say DrasticDad, a pleasure to meet you. :D


Thanks.

Not sure what I have to contribute to core issues, but I have done a great deal of reading and thinking about the economic future of the US, where we are, and where we are headed.

dogboy

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Re: If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?
« Reply #34 on: March 22, 2012, 11:06:02 PM »
Sir, like Jason, please allow me to welcome you to our little piece of the Internet. It's a pleasure to meet you. I'm not quite sure if he's famous, or notorious, but I am big fan of your son, and respect him for what he has achieved online.

As far as your recommendations, rest assured I will research the areas you mentioned thoroughly. Thank you for going through the hassle to contribute to my old thread here.

As far as contributing, this forum is obviously technically oriented, with a strong bent toward SEO and internet marketing. That said, sometimes I think we get a little too focused on technology and what we are doing, and we miss some of the big picture of what's really going on in the world and ways of making money, which is what drew some of us into SEO in the first place.  And despite what I may project, I do get worried about some of the people in here and I post fairly extreme opinions with hopes of drawing attention to issues I feel may threaten our well being.

But, in here, it's more like water cooler talk. I also have to admit I instigate quite a bit of this and I may be the only one in here that even knows what MF Global is and why it matters:) We also try to avoid politics, religion, and basically anything that might cause people to be uncomfortable and leave. So if I may be so bold to suggest a path forward, I would say to try and bring the conversations back to how it could affect all of us. Obviously there is a fine line but in general we are people who like to watch where the puck is going and get there before the next guy, so big picture discussion, in that light, is always welcome.

Rc, thanks for the heads up. That is precisely the information I need to know about.  

« Last Edit: March 22, 2012, 11:08:28 PM by dogboy »

DrasticDad

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Re: If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?
« Reply #35 on: March 23, 2012, 03:47:34 AM »
Sir, like Jason, please allow me to welcome you to our little piece of the Internet. It's a pleasure to meet you....how it could affect all of us.......we are people who like to watch where the puck is going and get there before the next guy, so big picture discussion, in that light, is always welcome.

Pleased to meet you also, and my son is a great guy that I also turn to for advice at times.

As to where the puck is going, it is not going to a good place.

If I were to attempt to make specific projections with a time line, I would most certainly be wide of the mark. However, there are some generalities that I believe are likely.

Central banks will continue to print until there is some form of collapse. They are now coordinated in their efforts. It is pretty clear that the perma-growth model is not fiscally sustainable, and governments around the world will kick the can for as long as possible. The best and appropriate alternatives are not politically acceptable.

For years, I thought there would be some form of SHTF scenario, but I now believe that although possible, it is unlikely. Further, the central bankers of the world have already kicked the can down the road further than I expected with huge expansions of their balance sheets.

We may well at some point see riots in the streets as you have in Greece, but the social order has not broken down there - at least it has not at this point.

To understand where the puck is going, you have to clearly understand where it has been and where it is now.

There has been a huge debt bubble that is worldwide, and it has popped. It cannot be reinflated. All that can happen now, is for it to hopefully deflate gradually, in such a manner as for the entire system to keep functioning.

All money today is backed by debt. We have in the US and other countries of the world, debt based monetary systems.

Debt however has costs. It has creation costs, and carrying costs. The debt has reached such a level that we can no longer sustain practical costs of creating and servicing increased levels of debt. The current system in the US, is that of securitized or "bundled" debt. Basically, this can only overcome the original cost of creating (under the current system) if the product is misrepresented. A key to understanding our current situation is the fact that no systemic changes are being made. Nothing is being resolved. Instead of having too big  to fail, we have bigger too big to fail.

Pretty much, governments of the world, at the national, state/province and local levels, along with many businesses, insurance companies, various parts of the financial sector, pension funds, institutional investors, etc. all base their projections for their budgets, revenues, etc. on increased growth.

Increased growth will not be there, any more than the unemployment statistics are realistic and true.

So, if you are unable to print money, governments increase taxes, and layoff in an attempt to get closer to balance - increased taxes diverts money from the private producing sector, layoffs have less workers putting money back into the economy and you have a downward spiral that only ends when all of the bad debt is completely cleared.

Greece cannot be saved. The people of Greece are not getting any of the money from the bailouts, the money is going to pay off noteholders. Portugal is next, Spain is probably too big to bail-out, Italy for sure – basically the Eurozone is close to falling apart. Hey, they are roughly equivalent to the US in GDP and population, it will affect the world financial sector and world economy depending on how and what happens there.

The levels of debt are quite high, too high for the debts to be paid.

Next up, in two or three years – Japan.

And if we don’t quit deficit spending in the US,  the US die will be cast by the time Japan  goes, we will already be so far gone that our default is inevitable, although it will be another several years before actual default occurs. Although not technically a default, printing enough to pay the US debt (which we have already started, by buying T’s) and hyperinflating the currency will essentially be a default for all practical purposes.

I have commented to my son, more than a couple of times – every thing you know, all of your adult experiences as relate to financial and work matters have been within a bubble. A bubble that cannot be reblown.

There is no good trade at the moment, that I am aware of. One really needs to be hedged and diversified. Right now we are looking at return of investment more than return on investment.

I have seen well reasoned cases to the effect that Bernanke in fact brought the equities markets down in order to drive money into Treasuries.  Long term, however, equities may do better than other sectors because the markets should rise with printing.

I do think that the original post about producing land being a good thing to get into now or in the next several years may well be a good trade.

Gold should probably do well, but if you notice is headed down at the moment. I’m close to buying some but have not yet pulled the trigger.

My business is doing well and I hope to have some money that I need to put somewhere  in the next several years. But, damned if I know where to put it.

Look at it this way, we're probably not going to know what the Eurozone is going to look like till 2015 or so, and Japan is going to be getting pretty interesting about then, and by that time it will likely be obvious to most that the US is in serious trouble.

So, while I cannot say exactly where within the above scenario that the puck is going, I can tell it is not a good place.


buckworks

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Re: If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?
« Reply #36 on: March 23, 2012, 06:16:21 AM »
Hello DrasticDad, and welcome!

I recommend some reading around http://www.chrismartenson.com/ if you haven't discovered it already.

I'm another one who is uneasy about the global financial situation but I live in Canada so some of the stresses are different. But to a great degree, anything that happens in the US will tow us along with it.

Our small town would be a relatively good place to be if TSHTF, but one big problem is that none of our grandchildren are close.

dogboy

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Re: If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?
« Reply #37 on: March 23, 2012, 02:12:52 PM »
DD, I couldn't have said it any better myself; I totally agree with you.  

In fact, I now think there is only 2 polarized positions: slight variations of this perspective... and total ignorance and denial.  I can't find anyone with a high level view of situation that can make a strong comprehensive argument to the contrary.  And I actually look, because if there is a weakness to our argument, I want to understand where it is.

As far as where our currencies/countries are headed, personally, I don't think there is any way to avoid the iceberg anymore.  And I agree deflation is the better (and least likely) of the 2 scenarios. But I emphatically maintain there are things that can be done now to help protect against the coming storm, and I'm taking some big steps toward that end, including: bumping up our holdings of silver and gold to 10% of our total wealth (back in early Jan, after the markets hit bottom) exiting stocks and bonds, and aggressively trying to sell our Florida vacation property and reinvest that money into a long term rural retreat somewhere I'd like to visit a few times a year, even if the world doesn't end, to enjoy the outdoors and hunt and fish.  

It's too long a story to inject here but I was born in the backwoods of PA and despite a fancy private school education, I've spent about 1/2 of my adult life in extremely remote areas including UT, AZ, ID, AK, CO, among other places... and so the idea of living in a small cabin in the woods, with hand pumped water, isn't a far stretch of the imagination for me, because I've already done it repeatedly, and actually prefer that lifestyle to the one I'm currently living, in many ways...



Do I think I'm going to HAVE to live in a shotgun shack to survive? No. In fact, I'm also thinking about moving to the Cayman Islands to weather out the storm.  My guess is that an island full of insanely rich people will be probably one of the best places to be, if you want to just write off the rest of the world for 10 years and just enjoy yourself, like nothing is happening.  But I still wouldn't mind some nice land and a cabin somewhere in the US.  I LIKE being self sufficient.  I LIKE being off the beaten path.  In other words, even if there was no collapse, I'd still like to have a getaway. Like you said, I hedge everything.

...but before I start going off on a rant, and to bring it back to what I was saying before about looping the conversation back to the forum members here, let me give you a simple real life example of what I'm talking about.  As I mentioned, back in December, when I saw Gold and Silver dropping, I started doing serious research to educate myself on the subject of PMs, because I was going to buy enough to sink a small boat, and I wanted to know what I was getting myself into.  Over the course of a few weeks I amassed quite a bit of information and written copy on the subject, so I decided to turn it into a blog, with hopes of eventually getting the site indexed and eventually ranked in order to move traffic and make some money, as the masses became aware of the situation and begin searching online for information and/or products.

See what I mean? Granted my little blog sucks, and I doubt I'll do anything with it, but I might pick it up again in a little bit, now Google knows it exists.  The idea is to build a site now, while it's not ultra competitive and then let the traffic come to me, because I positioned my self early.  Here is an SEO that is doing the same thing: http://bugoutbag.com/ ...this is what I'm talking about. As SEOs, this is how we deal with the issue and ensure we have an income stream as things that we used to make money on slowly spiral downward with people's disposable income.  Everyone is going to lose in the future. But some of us are going to lose much less than others because they were prepared.


« Last Edit: March 23, 2012, 02:40:08 PM by dogboy »

DrasticDad

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Re: If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?
« Reply #38 on: March 24, 2012, 02:36:02 AM »
I recommend some reading around http://www.chrismartenson.com/ if you haven't discovered it already.
And hello to you buckworks. Chris is one of the several dozen or so sites that I commonly frequent. Sharp guy, and able to verbalize it well. I at one time thought of Canada as being a good place to bugout to.

However. It is a global problem, I am comfortable in my home, have my firearms and family nearby, so will ride it out here.

If things get worse than I'm thinking, those mountains aren't far away.

DrasticDad

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Re: If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?
« Reply #39 on: March 24, 2012, 02:42:36 AM »
DD, I couldn't have said it any better myself; I totally agree with you.

heh, heh Always enjoy dialogue with someone who understands the situation.

Everyone is going to lose in the future. But some of us are going to lose much less than others because they were prepared.

There will be an overall decline, but some will do better than others. And a few, will do quite well. Depends on how well we can position ourselves, at this point - I wish I had a better grip on what specifically to do, but feel I am somewhat prepared.

dogboy

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Re: If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?
« Reply #40 on: March 24, 2012, 01:41:32 PM »
>what specifically to do
I hear you.  Right now, I'm just looking at the big picture. I move cash to metals, and am trying to dump the Florida vacation home.  Guns and ammo were never an issue with me, as we have enough to weapons to literally fully outfit a small army... over 50 guns for just about any conceivable situation.

This is just for the autos...

I have more for shotguns, hunting rifles, and pistols.

People laugh (uncomfortably) and ask why in the hell would you need that much ammo, etc.  And since they are ignorant enough to ask the question I have to explain that guns don't work without bullets, and that bullets are kinda expensive.  And if in short supply, they will become extremely expensive.  So I have enough to go hunting every day, with friends, for 10+ years and never have to worry about running out of ammo. And if I need to, I can sell it or trade it, because ammo prices just keep going up;  A case of 12 gauge ammo is more liquid than a roll of Silver Eagles up where I'm from in PA.

This is what it looks like where I'm from:

...and I assure you it won't look any different if our currency collapses or not.  And all those people that scoff at guns, and hunting, etc. usually shut up as they realize that if THEY are wrong, they are absolutely f###ed, because they won't know what to do in the city faced with supply shortages... and absolutely no idea what to do if you put them in the woods. They'll have nothing, and no exit plan, and they will live in fear of violence and starvation.  If you think I'm overstating the case, think 'Katrina' but on a much larger scale. As soon as things got hairy, you didn't see 'neighbors helping neighbors'; they started looting, robbing, killing and raping.  Everything broke down.  The govt didn't come to save them and the police choppers got shot at when they tried to fly over the worst areas.  It doesn't take much to bring a city to it's knees.

And if I'm wrong? Nothing happens and I have a gun collection slowly appreciating in value, and I sell some bandoliers of .223 to buy myself a new Ducati:)  But if I'm right, I'm eating steak, while all those people that scoffed at me stand in soup lines...


The only good news, is that it's likely not going to happen over night. So there is time for people to invest in a little insurance by buying a little .38, and filling up an old closet with a few weeks worth of non-perishable food, water and gas, while they look at their IRA's and savings accounts and figure out how to protect what they have.

DrasticDad

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Re: If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?
« Reply #41 on: March 24, 2012, 01:58:52 PM »
>what specifically to do
I hear you.  Right now, I'm just looking at the big picture. I move cash to metals, and am trying to dump the Florida vacation home.  Guns and ammo were never an issue with me, as we have enough to weapons to literally fully outfit a small army... over 50 guns for just about any conceivable situation.This is just for the autos...I have more for shotguns, hunting rifles, and pistols.

People laugh ...

I'm not laughing, I'm admiring!

Serious preps there.

You can never have too many guns or too much ammo.

dogboy

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Re: If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?
« Reply #42 on: March 24, 2012, 02:34:41 PM »
hey, like I said, if things go South, I might too... the Cayman's sound like pretty nice alternative strategy:)  All that money down there will ensure country club style conditions under the very worst world economic conditions.

But it wouldn't be bad to have a cabin, with thick walls, nestled in by 3 sides of NF, with a stream, a private pond, with a view of a big lake surrounded by mountains.  That's what's next on my list.  Honestly, I don't have any food stored or anything like that at all; I'm still getting the big picture framed out. Putting together something that will hopefully appreciate in value over time.  Ideally, I'd like to have a place somewhere down here warm and sandy, and a mountain cabin.

And maybe it's time for another dog...


grnidone

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Re: If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?
« Reply #43 on: March 24, 2012, 08:13:55 PM »
>And maybe it's time for another dog...

*claps hands* Yeaaaaa!  I'm so glad to hear you're finally out of your depressed funk!  I was really worried about you when I saw you last.

dogboy

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Re: If we are all going to die, maybe I should buy the farm now?
« Reply #44 on: March 25, 2012, 12:44:30 PM »
>you're finally out of your depressed funk
oh, I sure it's around here somewhere...

But yeah, I have a trip to Bulgaria coming up, maybe a pilgrimage to the Ducati factory in Italy too, then who knows; maybe a black, cross eyed, occasionally muzzled, attack dog, like this crazy SOB, is just what the doctor ordered.