« previous next »
Pages: [1]

Author Topic: A look at mortality rate stats for CV in Europe so far.  (Read 1138 times)

gm66

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1472
    • View Profile
A look at mortality rate stats for CV in Europe so far.
« on: May 09, 2020, 04:30:39 PM »
Logged
Civilisation is a race between disaster and education ...

littleman

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6552
    • View Profile
Re: A look at mortality rate stats for CV in Europe so far.
« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2020, 09:14:36 PM »
It is hard to extract what the true mortality rate is for CV19.  Most places have social distancing in place.  There is the question of viral load which seems to be the reason why many health care workers are falling ill -- social distancing is lowering that statistic.   Many governments seem to be motivated to downplay their own fatality numbers; even "all cause mortality" may not give accurate data at this point as many statisticians aren't working or getting accurate data.  We're not going to know the real fatality rates for a long time.

You could kinda extract some notion by the cluster f### of what's happening in the United States.  We're going to pass 80,000 today.  2018 had 61,000 total flu deaths in the USA.  We're not anywhere near the end of the outbreak here.  Comorbidity is obviously a factor, but it is also a factor with the flu.
Logged

gm66

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1472
    • View Profile
Re: A look at mortality rate stats for CV in Europe so far.
« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2020, 12:06:55 AM »
Quote from: littleman on May 09, 2020, 09:14:36 PM
It is hard to extract what the true mortality rate is for CV19.  Most places have social distancing in place.  There is the question of viral load which seems to be the reason why many health care workers are falling ill -- social distancing is lowering that statistic.   Many governments seem to be motivated to downplay their own fatality numbers; even "all cause mortality" may not give accurate data at this point as many statisticians aren't working or getting accurate data.  We're not going to know the real fatality rates for a long time.

You could kinda extract some notion by the cluster f### of what's happening in the United States.  We're going to pass 80,000 today.  2018 had 61,000 total flu deaths in the USA.  We're not anywhere near the end of the outbreak here.  Comorbidity is obviously a factor, but it is also a factor with the flu.

Good points, yes it's a fuzzy area stats-wise, as you point out time is the bottom line. Scarey that it's approaching recent figures for entire flu seasons in less than half the time.
Logged
Civilisation is a race between disaster and education ...

Rupert

  • Inner Core
  • Hero Member
  • *
  • Posts: 3355
  • George in a previous life.
    • View Profile
    • SuitsMen
Re: A look at mortality rate stats for CV in Europe so far.
« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2020, 05:47:38 AM »
I agree, I think he is putting on rose coloured specs.  Which is good, as panic is no help.  But I like to know facts.

I am going to boldly suggest that the actual death rate is attributable to covid is  getting towards 1.5 times what the numbers show. Because of this:

https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/deaths-from-any-cause-in-care-homes-have-increased

Quote
In the week ending 24 April 2020, there were 2,794 COVID-19 related deaths recorded in care homes, 4,841 recorded in hospitals and 423 recorded in private homes.

However, the figure for care homes is likely to be an underestimate. The increase of 5,440 deaths from any cause is likely to be a more accurate indication of the scale of the direct and indirect impacts of the pandemic on those living in care homes. In the week ending 24 April 2020, 35% of deaths in care homes were COVID-19 related compared to 28% in the week ending 17 April 2020.

I think this chart is interesting:
https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/understanding-excess-mortality-the-fairest-way-to-make-international-comparisons

Looking at the UK, Excess deaths seems to be 38,500 up to 24th April, while at the time covid deaths were officially 27,222.

And we seem to be about half way through, as you say, AND that's with lock down. Its going to be interesting what the PM says we have to do tonight, and then what people actually do.



Logged
... Make sure you live before you die.

rcjordan

  • I'm consulting the authorities on the subject
  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16351
  • Debbie says...
    • View Profile
Re: A look at mortality rate stats for CV in Europe so far.
« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2020, 06:12:22 PM »
There are some recent signs that the CDC and FDA are starting to resist politicization and trying to recover some of their reputation/authority.

TL;DR: CDC adds 200k excess deaths to the cv-19 death toll (just days before the election).

"excess deaths have occurred every week in the United States since March 2020. An estimated 299,028 more persons than expected have died since January 26, 2020; approximately two thirds of these deaths were attributed to COVID-19."

US:  Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity — United States, January 26–October 3, 2020 | MMWR
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm
Logged
Pages: [1]
« previous next »