This
“Media understanding about probability, margin of error and uncertainty is very poor,”
I've been saying for years that you should have to take at least two semesters of stats for a degree in journalism... then I found out that in most programs, they ARE. So now I've changed my requirement to say that you have to actually PASS. Because when I read even "good" journalism, it is clear that most journalists can't do any stats beyond calculating percentages, and in at least 1/4 of the cases, they don't even use percentages right (i.e. they are blind to built-in assumptions and obvious bias).
I think, sadly, most journalists are basically innumerate.
He gave Hillary Clinton roughly a 7 in 10 chance of winning, with Trump at about 3 in 10.
People kept saying "Trump doesn't have a chance" and I kept trying to point out that to come up with that number, 538 ran the election simulation 10,000 times and over 3,000 times Trump won, which means that, yes, he does stand a chance. To me, those types of numbers make it a nailbiter.
I like to ask people something like: "You have a revolver that holds 10 bullets. It's loaded with 3. How much do I have to pay you to play Russian Roulette with that gun?" The all of the sudden people start to think 3 in 10 is pretty high probability.
