Author Topic: NYC Crime Rate Is Way Down, So Letís All Fight About Why It Happened  (Read 515 times)

rcjordan

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rcjordan

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Re: NYC Crime Rate Is Way Down, So Letís All Fight About Why It Happened
« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2017, 07:09:46 PM »
<added related>

San Jose leads array of California cities with spiking violent crime

https://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/30/san-jose-leads-array-of-california-cities-with-spiking-violent-crime/

aaron

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Re: NYC Crime Rate Is Way Down, So Letís All Fight About Why It Happened
« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2018, 10:04:03 AM »
It makes sense ground zero for the tech bubble sees higher rates of violence.

People who lose something they once had (getting priced out of a gentrified neighborhood as a few tech monopolies buy up much of the land around them) are more likely to be violent than people who are in a community which has traditionally and historically been poor still remaining poor.

Those who think they are better than living in an RV
https://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/17/cities-face-growing-crisis-as-rvs-become-homes-of-last-resort/
but don't earn enough to pay rent can easily turn to violence.

Even married lawyers and city council members have been priced out of Palo Alto
https://shift.newco.co/letter-of-resignation-from-the-palo-alto-planning-and-transportation-commission-f7b6facd94f5
along with the rest of Silicon Valley & the broader Bay Area.
http://www.santacruzsentinel.com/article/NE/20171215/NEWS/171219783

When a married couple consisting of a lawyer and high-level government worker share a house with another couple yet still can't afford local prices, who can?

Not absolute poverty, but high relative poverty causes increased level of aggressive/violent crime from young men (who perhaps see violence as a way to short circuit the dominance hierarchy & achieve status).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3XYHPAwBzE

http://avc.com/2017/12/what-happened-in-2017/
"Tech is the new Wall Street, full of ultra rich out of touch people who have too much power and not enough empathy."


littleman

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Re: NYC Crime Rate Is Way Down, So Letís All Fight About Why It Happened
« Reply #3 on: January 01, 2018, 09:00:18 PM »
I grew up in the low income part of San Jose (East side), my father lives in the same house now -- though he didn't live there when I was a kid.    Like Aron said, the changes are a result of gentrification, but what is happening in that neighborhood is interesting and nuanced.

The neighborhood has had crime for decades, it was probably much worse in the 80s.  During that time there was major disruption when the factory jobs started closing.  My neighbors were about 50/50 factory/trade families and welfare recipients.  Also, in the 80s the tech industry started to take form.  So, families with 'trade' type of labor skills were getting squeezed by low employment opportunities and rising property values and started to leave.

Push forward into the 90s and the 00s and most of the need for skilled labor is gone.  Meanwhile, property prices are rising and welfare reform pushes the chronically unemployed households out of ESJ.  The neighborhood is still run down and no upwardly-mobile types would want to live there.  So, the people who have replaced them are largely even lower income immigrants.  Yet, the properties are relatively expensive and the new residents are sleep 2-3 to a room to make rent.

Going back to the neighborhood, the only people that are still there from when I was a kid are very old now.  Oddly, in some ways the neighborhood is quieter and cleaner than it use to be even though I would say the average resident is poorer.  The kids who are growing up there now aren't going to have a bright future unless they make a very difficult leap from low income service work to tech.  What usually ends up happening is that the kids just move out of the Bay Area when they get into their early 20s.

Aaron, did you grow up in the Bay Area?

aaron

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Re: NYC Crime Rate Is Way Down, So Letís All Fight About Why It Happened
« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2018, 01:04:54 PM »
Quote
Aaron, did you grow up in the Bay Area?
I did not. I grew up in Illinois. When young was sort of what is now a Chicago suburb, but wasn't really back then (suburban sprawl increased over past 30 years) then as I grew older it seemed we moved deeper and deeper into corn land. Then joined the military when I was 17 & moved a bit all over. Have lived in 3 different residences in the east bay over the past decade or so. Between living in the Bay Area, reading books like Chaos Monkeys, seeing relative performance of Google & Facebook, and then reading a lot of tech and finance news I sort of got a sense of the trend without growing up there.

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What usually ends up happening is that the kids just move out of the Bay Area when they get into their early 20s.
This is something rarely mentioned in terms of strategies to do well. So many people go after chasing the action, moving to where living costs are sky high, whereas with the web you can live in places where your living costs are close to nil & do a bit of this and that to get by until something sticks. Of course the barrier to entry on the web now is much higher than it was 10 or 15 years ago.

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The kids who are growing up there now aren't going to have a bright future unless they make a very difficult leap from low income service work to tech.
If AI keeps growing this is going to happen in more and more locations.

A lot of the tech plays are hollowing out adjacent offline competitors. And arguably the core understating of inflation on core living costs along with easy monetary policies that have inflated asset prices are increasing debt loads which also gut the economic viability of many of the suburban job opportunities too.
https://latest.13d.com/the-two-americas-why-now-more-than-ever-inequality-must-be-confronted-to-protect-economic-61e9c07f87aa

rcjordan

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Re: NYC Crime Rate Is Way Down, So Letís All Fight About Why It Happened
« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2018, 04:46:23 PM »
Meanwhile, in Baltimore...

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More people were killed in 2017 in Baltimore, population 615,000, than in New York City, population 8.5 million.

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The 2017 count of 343 homicides is the second most in a single year, and the most per capita in city history. The city suffered 353 homicides in 1993, but had about 100,000 more residents.

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Other crime, including shootings, robberies, aggravated assaults, burglary and carjackings, has also surged. Arrests, meanwhile, have dropped off,

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We are experiencing a new dimension of societal fracture in our city

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/crime/bs-md-ci-2017-violence-20171229-story.html

littleman

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Re: NYC Crime Rate Is Way Down, So Letís All Fight About Why It Happened
« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2018, 07:16:19 PM »
Quote
This is something rarely mentioned in terms of strategies to do well. So many people go after chasing the action, moving to where living costs are sky high, whereas with the web you can live in places where your living costs are close to nil & do a bit of this and that to get by until something sticks.

Most of the folks I know who have done it have turned out OK.  Family ties are really the only thing that keeps me in this area, otherwise I'd move to someplace more sensible.  I actually like the far North bay quite a lot -- the places that are just a bit too far to commute into the city.

grnidone

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Re: NYC Crime Rate Is Way Down, So Letís All Fight About Why It Happened
« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2018, 08:43:23 PM »
>Family ties are really the only thing that keeps me in this area, otherwise I'd move to someplace more sensible. 

I just about posted some really beautiful houses in my area for you, but then remembered Brownback trashed the school system with his BS trickledown theory that didn't work.  Thankfully, our state Senate put the tax plan back the way it was before 2012, but we've got a LONG way to go.


grnidone

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Re: NYC Crime Rate Is Way Down, So Letís All Fight About Why It Happened
« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2018, 08:44:54 PM »
>I actually like the far North bay quite a lot

I hear the lots in Santa Rosa are quite cheap. ;)

(For the rest of y'all, that's where the Northern California fires burned all those neighborhoods.)